Was Gerry's visit to 5a and the sighting of a man carrying a child related?

[Angelo222]

Having posted on another thread I have just come up with a good idea in order to avoid the libel pitfalls on this thread.  Simply refer to the Amaral theory and then everyone knows what you are implying.

[Brietta]

Having posted on another thread I have just come up with a good idea in order to avoid the libel pitfalls on this thread.  Simply refer to the Amaral theory and then everyone knows what you are implying.

Is there anything of the Amaral theory which has not already been debunked bearing in mind its target was Kate and Gerry McCann?

[Vertigo Swirl]

Had the apartment been locked you might have had an argument but as we know the patio door was unlocked and easily opened and the front door could be opened from the inside thus the missing child could have simply walked out given she was distressed at being left alone with her twin siblings night after night. There is also the Amaral theory which I won't go into for obvious reasons.

Evidence of an abduction requires tangible factors to be at play and none appear in this case.

The child's disappearance is evidence that she may have woke and wandered, do you accept that?

[jassi]

I always thought evidence was something factual, rather than a possibility.

[Vertigo Swirl]

I always thought evidence was something factual, rather than a possibility.

it is factual - a child has disappeared which is evidence to support an as yet proven theory. 

[jassi]

it is factual - a child has disappeared which is evidence to support an as yet proven theory.

The evidence is that she is missing. The possible cause(s) is supposition.

[Vertigo Swirl]

The evidence is that she is missing. The possible cause(s) is supposition.

The fact that she is missing is evidence of a number of possible scenarios, including abduction. 

[jassi]

I don't believe that you can have evidence of possibilities . Possibilities are not evidence.

[slartibartfast]

Is there anything of the Amaral theory which has not already been debunked bearing in mind its target was Kate and Gerry McCann?

Not debunked, doubt cast on the level of proof that exists, very little of the theory has shown to be incorrect. They weren’t a target just a conclusion.

[Angelo222]

The child's disappearance is evidence that she may have woke and wandered, do you accept that?

Only in as much as the GNR scent dogs established her scent trial which went from the front door, around block 5 and out across the road opposite mini reception.  If they had been following an old scent trail it would not have stopped suddenly.

[Angelo222]

it is factual - a child has disappeared which is evidence to support an as yet proven theory.

A child disappearing can mean many things. One cannot say she was abducted just because she was there one minute and gone the next.

[Angelo222]

Not debunked, doubt cast on the level of proof that exists, very little of the theory has shown to be incorrect. They weren’t a target just a conclusion.

There are those who would love to think that Amaral's theory has been debunked but as it stands it is as valid as any.  Only time will tell if he was right.

[Brietta]

Not debunked, doubt cast on the level of proof that exists, very little of the theory has shown to be incorrect. They weren’t a target just a conclusion.

Does a theory have a conclusion?

[Vertigo Swirl]

I don't believe that you can have evidence of possibilities . Possibilities are not evidence.

No one has said possibilities are evidence.  I can't believe I have to write it again.  The disappearance is the evidence, it's evidence of one of two or three scenarios.  In the same way that missing valuables from an apartment is evidence that someone may have entered your flat illegally.

Caller:  I think someone's entered my house while I was out
Police: What evidence do you have of a break-in?
Caller: Well I left the door unlocked but when I entered the flat I noticed the window was open and my valuables taken.

The police will treat this as evidence that a crime may have been committed and may attend.  If you phone up the police and say "I think someone has entered my house while I was out" and can offer no evidence such as missing goods or open window, they're unlikely to take your call that seriously. 

[Brietta]

There are those who would love to think that Amaral's theory has been debunked but as it stands it is as valid as any.  Only time will tell if he was right.

If Amaral's theory had any merit why was he sacked and why didn't subsequent investigations invoke the rule of law guided by his theory?