Disappeared and Abducted Children and Young Adults => Madeleine McCann (3) disappeared from her parent's holiday apartment at Ocean Club, Praia da Luz, Portugal on 3 May 2007. No trace of her has ever been found. => Topic started by: Alfred R Jones on September 17, 2014, 11:50:42 AM
Title: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Alfred R Jones on September 17, 2014, 11:50:42 AM
Before the PJ decided it was the parents wot dunnit one of their theories was that it was a burglary gone wrong. If they gave the idea some credence at the time why should it seem so far fetched now to the PJ Fan Club?
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Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Luz on September 17, 2014, 12:11:55 PM
Before the PJ decided it was the parents wot dunnit one of their theories was that it was a burglary gone wrong. If they gave the idea some credence at the time why should it seem so far fetched now to the PJ Fan Club?
I didn't see that theory anywhere in the files. In fact their first theory was that the child and got out, after the parents insisted they had left the apartment opened.
PJ, as far as I could read, never believed in a burglary, especially, because the parents guarantied that "nothing of value had been taken", and in the absence of forensics, a burglary is too far fetched, not to say impossible.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Alfred R Jones on September 17, 2014, 12:20:09 PM
I didn't see that theory anywhere in the files. In fact their first theory was that the child and got out, after the parents insisted they had left the apartment opened.
PJ, as far as I could read, never believed in a burglary, especially, because the parents guarantied that "nothing of value had been taken", and in the absence of forensics, a burglary is too far fetched, not to say impossible.
From the Gospel according to St Goncalo of Amaral:
"During the holidays, burglaries are not rare...the theory of a burglary gone wrong could not be excluded".
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: stephen25000 on September 17, 2014, 12:41:49 PM
From the Gospel according to St Goncalo of Amaral:
"During the holidays, burglaries are not rare...the theory of a burglary gone wrong could not be excluded".
Actually it was the GNR that transmitted that idea, that the child had wandered out of the house, when the PJ arrived - the "crime scene" was so blundered that the police had to put that as first possibility. That's why dozens of canine teams were immediately called on, as well as ground, sea and air searches by firefighters, municipal police, gnr,maritime police, army....and civilians. On the first day more than a thousand people was on the ground looking for Madeleine, but her parents.
Burglaries during holidays are mainly operated on empty apartments/villas, or directly on the people that are out enjoying themselves.
House burglaries are selected by the riches they can provide, which is/was not the case with OC-PDL. Just a mile away the burglars could find rich villas with profitable goods and, most importantly, empty.
I have 2 villas fully furnished with family antiques that could render a lot, and fortunately I've never been burglarized. Why would this specific apartment with nothing of value inside and 3 live kids have such unfortunate luck?!
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Alfred R Jones on September 17, 2014, 12:49:34 PM
Actually it was the GNR that transmitted that idea, that the child had wandered out of the house, when the PJ arrived - the "crime scene" was so blundered that the police had to put that as first possibility. That's why dozens of canine teams were immediately called on, as well as ground, sea and air searches by firefighters, municipal police, gnr,maritime police, army....and civilians. On the first day more than a thousand people was on the ground looking for Madeleine, but her parents.
Burglaries during holidays are mainly operated on empty apartments/villas, or directly on the people that are out enjoying themselves.
House burglaries are selected by the riches they can provide, which is/was not the case with OC-PDL. Just a mile away the burglars could find rich villas with profitable goods and, most importantly, empty.
I have 2 villas fully furnished with family antiques that could render a lot, and fortunately I've never been burglarized. Why would this specific apartment with nothing of value inside and 3 live kids have such unfortunate luck?!
Like I said, if Goncalo entertained the idea as a genuine possibility back in 2007 why do so many Gonc fans scoff at the idea now?
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Luz on September 17, 2014, 12:56:23 PM
Can you provide a document where Gonçlo Amaral spoke about a burglary gone wrong?!!! Video is accepted, thanks
It's from his brilliant book I believe, I'm sure you have a copy on your shelf.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Brietta on September 17, 2014, 02:38:24 PM
From the truth of the lie
"The idea of a robbery gone wrong is not to be ruled out either. During the holidays, burglaries are not rare, and the police are not always informed, because hotels avoid spreading this kind of information. Even if the examination of apartment 5A reveals no trace of a break-in - contrary to what the parents insist and that Sky announced - we have to take stock of the petty crimes committed in the seaside resort and at the tourist complex. We are counting on the management of the hotel so that no incident of this nature remains hidden. Even if we don't have much belief in the scenario of a burglar who enters the apartment for a burglary and leaves it with the child, dead or alive, this hypothesis, as ridiculous as it may be, must not be neglected."
So the hypothesis was looked at by people who had already made up their minds that Madeleine's parents had "dunnit " and who went through the motions of checking out "ridiculous" alternative theories, safe in the knowledge they didn't need to stir themselves to look for a real predator since they had two ready made patsies at hand.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: stephen25000 on September 17, 2014, 02:45:14 PM
"The idea of a robbery gone wrong is not to be ruled out either. During the holidays, burglaries are not rare, and the police are not always informed, because hotels avoid spreading this kind of information. Even if the examination of apartment 5A reveals no trace of a break-in - contrary to what the parents insist and that Sky announced - we have to take stock of the petty crimes committed in the seaside resort and at the tourist complex. We are counting on the management of the hotel so that no incident of this nature remains hidden. Even if we don't have much belief in the scenario of a burglar who enters the apartment for a burglary and leaves it with the child, dead or alive, this hypothesis, as ridiculous as it may be, must not be neglected."
So the hypothesis was looked at by people who had already made up their minds that Madeleine's parents had "dunnit " and who went through the motions of checking out "ridiculous" alternative theories, safe in the knowledge they didn't need to stir themselves to look for a real predator since they had two ready made patsies at hand.
'predator' ???
Where's the proof ?
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Eleanor on September 17, 2014, 02:58:42 PM
No Eleanor, what I'm asking for VERY CLEARLY, is proof of a link to Madeleine's disappearance.
Ah, that could be difficult since every criminal is only too aware of DNA these days. And actually not that difficult to guard against, providing there is no actual body contact. But surely this theory cannot be discarded.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Mr Gray on September 17, 2014, 03:12:36 PM
No Eleanor, what I'm asking for VERY CLEARLY, is proof of a link to Madeleine's disappearance.
You have no proof that Maddie died in an accident yet you believe it. It is therefore hypocritical of you to ask others for proof to support their ideas.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: stephen25000 on September 17, 2014, 03:16:15 PM
You have no proof that Maddie died in an accident yet you believe it. It is therefore hypocritical of you to ask others for proof to support their ideas.
Hardly.
There are the dogs indications.
There is NOTHING for an abduction and/or paedophile, and/or burglary.
Just a story.
P.S. I do know the forensics were inconclusive.
Then of course we have kate mccanns words outside court in Portugal.........
'I know, I was there'
Well she wasn't , was she ? &%&£(+ &%&£(+ &%&£(+
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Mr Gray on September 17, 2014, 03:20:51 PM
Ah, that could be difficult since every criminal is only too aware of DNA these days. And actually not that difficult to guard against, providing there is no actual body contact. But surely this theory cannot be discarded.
Then neither should be accidental death in the apartment. 8)-)))
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Eleanor on September 17, 2014, 05:01:47 PM
There is NOTHING for an abduction and/or paedophile, and/or burglary.
Just a story.
P.S. I do know the forensics were inconclusive.
Then of course we have kate mccanns words outside court in Portugal.........
'I know, I was there'
Well she wasn't , was she ? &%&£(+ &%&£(+ &%&£(+
But there are indications. You chose to ignore them
1) The place being watched 2) Open shutter and window 3) Other children in area sexually molested 4) A run of abductions including two in the close area in the previous 3 years ... all 3 young fair haied and pretty little girls. 5) At least two other apartments in OC being burgled via the front door in the preceeding weeks One being Mrs Fenns, immediately above 5A.
You chose to ignore all the indications and believe a cop who is a twice Court proven liar: a man who has NO evidence and has told lies in the case. You chose to believe him and disbelieve everything that 9 people say ... not one of them has any record of lies against their names.
You now know that Amaral based his case upon false premises, He misunderstood what Keela and Eddies Alerts did or did not mean. HE ATRIBUTED BLAME FROM nothing. Why dont you sort your ideas out Stephen?
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: stephen25000 on September 17, 2014, 07:45:54 PM
But there are indications. You chose to ignore them
1) The place being watched 2) Open shutter and window 3) Other children in area sexually molested 4) A run of abductions including two in the close area in the previous 3 years ... all 3 young fair haied and pretty little girls. 5) At least two other apartments in OC being burgled via the front door in the preceeding weeks One being Mrs Fenns, immediately above 5A.
You chose to ignore all the indications and believe a cop who is a twice Court proven liar: a man who has NO evidence and has told lies in the case. You chose to believe him and disbelieve everything that 9 people say ... onoe of them have any record of lies against their names.
You now know that Amaral based his case upon false premises, He misunderstood what Keela and Eddies Alerts did or did not mean. HE ATRIBUTED BLAME FROM nothing. Why dont you sort your ideas out Stephen?
I don't ignore anything, but I do look at things logically and not with hysterical backing of the mccanns and an unproven story.
Open shutters and window. No proof of that.
Seeing people standing outside a building does not mean they were going to rob it or abduct children.
As to lying, well the mccanns have lied, hardly something unknown in human behaviour.
Just because children were molested in the area doesn't mean Madeleine was. You need proof that she was, and of course you can't for obvious reasons.
Merely because other children were abducted, doesn't mean Madeleine was.
Burglary is not exactly uncommon in most countries, and remember gerry mccanns words...
NOTHING OF VALUE WAS TAKEN FROM THE 'APARTMENT'
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Miss Taken Identity on September 17, 2014, 09:01:57 PM
1) The place being watched 2) Open shutter and window 3) Other children in area sexually molested 4) A run of abductions including two in the close area in the previous 3 years ... all 3 young fair haied and pretty little girls. 5) At least two other apartments in OC being burgled via the front door in the preceeding weeks One being Mrs Fenns, immediately above 5A.
No proof of place being watched any evidence of sexually molested children- court cases,arrests? etc? No proof of shutters and window being 'jemmied' ( if front door burglaries were taking place- why jemmy a window)? ( can't have it both ways). Run of abductions?
There were also stories about parents going out for a meal and drink and leaving their little babies and a toddler alone...would that have something to do with the 'abduction'? I mean do you think they made it too easy?
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 20, 2014, 02:21:55 AM
1) The place being watched 2) Open shutter and window 3) Other children in area sexually molested 4) A run of abductions including two in the close area in the previous 3 years ... all 3 young fair haied and pretty little girls. 5) At least two other apartments in OC being burgled via the front door in the preceeding weeks One being Mrs Fenns, immediately above 5A.
No proof of place being watched any evidence of sexually molested children- court cases,arrests? etc? No proof of shutters and window being 'jemmied' ( if front door burglaries were taking place- why jemmy a window)? ( can't have it both ways). Run of abductions?
There were also stories about parents going out for a meal and drink and leaving their little babies and a toddler alone...would that have something to do with the 'abduction'? I mean do you think they made it too easy?
In the Fenn burglary there is no evidence at all of entry through front door - the open window is a rather obvious clue that entry was via the window.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: stephen25000 on September 20, 2014, 07:51:49 AM
Before the PJ decided it was the parents wot dunnit one of their theories was that it was a burglary gone wrong. If they gave the idea some credence at the time why should it seem so far fetched now to the PJ Fan Club?
What burglary ?
'Nothing of value was taken from the apartment'.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Benice on September 20, 2014, 08:47:05 AM
In the Fenn burglary there is no evidence at all of entry through front door - the open window is a rather obvious clue that entry was via the window.
Not sure about that pegasus. I believe one of the first things an intruder does is to seek an appropriate exit route should one be requiredin the event of discovery ... Mrs Fenn did not see the man entering her property, she saw him making his exit. One shudders to think what might have happened to her should she have cornered him in another area of her home where he did not have access to an escape route.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: misty on September 20, 2014, 01:59:44 PM
Not sure about that pegasus. I believe one of the first things an intruder does is to seek an appropriate exit route should one be requiredin the event of discovery ... Mrs Fenn did not see the man entering her property, she saw him making his exit. One shudders to think what might have happened to her should she have cornered him in another area of her home where he did not have access to an escape route.
One thing that does strike me about all these burglars/intruders in PdL is just how non-confrontational they appear to have been. In the good old UK, I'm pretty sure Mrs Fenn et al would have been "done over" before the intruder left with whatever he was looking for. Clearly Portuguese intruders are far more considerate than the normal criminal. The "newest revelation" in S&S book also features a non-aggressive abductor. http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/510625/Police-told-conman-tried-to-take-girl-weeks-before-Maddie?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+daily-express-uk-news+%28Daily+Express+%3A%3A+UK+Feed%29 There does not seem to have been any element of true planning in the previous cases, merely opportunism, unlike the abduction of Madeleine.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: John on September 20, 2014, 02:38:39 PM
Burglar usually case a joint and tend to keep away from any property which has occupants. They could have had their pick of any unoccupied property in PdL that night but no, they chose one right next to the tapas bar and restaurant, was lit and which had three children in it. Not likely imo.
If Madeleine was abducted she was targeted.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Anna on September 20, 2014, 07:37:39 PM
In the Fenn burglary there is no evidence at all of entry through front door - the open window is a rather obvious clue that entry was via the window.
How would he have got up there and down again though Pegusus. I have been checking up on a statement to find that the person was part of a climbing school. I think it is the same person and he would be well equipped for burglary and getting in and out of tight spaces, would he not? Probably just another coincidence though. So how did that person get into mrs Fenn apartment, I wonder. Whoever it was would have no problem climbing onto McCanns Balcony, so as not to use the stairs and possibly use the adult bedroom door as Sadie has already suggested
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 20, 2014, 08:08:45 PM
How would he have got up there and down again though Pegusus. I have been checking up on a statement to find that the person was part of a climbing school...
One of the windows of 5G is easily accessible without any climbing school skills.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Anna on September 20, 2014, 08:13:22 PM
sorry pegusas, what window? None are on ground floor
The window to the right of 5G front door - no ropes or sherpas required.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 20, 2014, 08:47:46 PM
And also apartment 5L, which was burgled 16 April 2007, which is two stories above the ground floor, has a window easily accessible to a burglar without any climbing school skills.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Anna on September 20, 2014, 08:55:49 PM
And also apartment 5L, which was burgled 16 April 2007, which is two stories above the ground floor, has a window easily accessible to a burglar without any climbing school skills.
So it sounds like someone fairly small, child or female, to get through that small space, but it proves it can be done. cheers for your help.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Anna on September 20, 2014, 08:59:55 PM
Just thought they would have to get out carrying their loot too, I imagine. One holidaymaker had the TV taken &%+((£ How silly of me..... Of course they would just walk out the front door which I believe are self locking. but in Mrs fenns case she seen him escape through the window, so a bit daft if it was next to the door or else there was a wall between door and window. It was her bedroom window ..I now remember!
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 20, 2014, 09:28:54 PM
Just thought they would have to get out carrying their loot too, I imagine. One holidaymaker had the TV taken &%+((£
Here is how I think these 3 burglaries went:
16 April 5L: burglar thinks no one is home, he walks up the communal stairs, and from the open communal second-floor walkway he opens the shuttered window, no one is home, he climbs in, collects loot, then exits with loot either via same window (or via main door if not deadlocked).
26 April 5G: burglar thinks no one is home, he walks up the communal stairs, and from the open communal first-floor walkway he opens the shuttered window, climbs in, gets disturbed by Mrs F, and exits lootless via same window.
03 May 5A: burglar thinks no one is home, and from the ground he opens the shuttered window, but before he climbs in he is disturbed by a child inside (awoken by the shutter raising noise), and he flees lootless before he even enters.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Anna on September 20, 2014, 09:34:04 PM
16 April 5L: burglar thinks no one is home, he enters through shuttered window on the open communal first-floor walkway, no one is home, exits with loot either via same window (or via main door if not deadlocked).
26 April 5G: burglar thinks no one is home, he enters through shuttered window on the open communal second-floor walkway, gets disturbed by Mrs F, and exits lootless via same window.
03 May 5A: burglar thinks no one is home, he opens the shuttered window (accessible from ground), but before he climbs in is disturbed by a child inside (awoken by the shutter raising noise) and flees lootless before he even enters.
That all makes sense, but where is Maddie . Did she fall out the window or did someone else come along and take her. Are you saying that she did have an accident and was concealed?
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 20, 2014, 09:54:30 PM
That all makes sense, but where is Maddie . Did she fall out the window or did someone else come along and take her. Are you saying that she did have an accident and was concealed?
The natural reaction would be to run in the opposite direction of the opened window. So that would mean into either into the lounge, or into the other bedroom - I am not sure which. (Another possibility would be to run out onto the balcony, however I think that is less likely).
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 20, 2014, 10:15:10 PM
Just thought they would have to get out carrying their loot too, I imagine. One holidaymaker had the TV taken &%+((£ How silly of me..... Of course they would just walk out the front door which I believe are self locking. but in Mrs fenns case she seen him escape through the window, so a bit daft if it was next to the door or else there was a wall between door and window. It was her bedroom window ..I now remember!
Window of 5A which was opened is circled. Front door of 5G is circled and to its right is the easily accessible window of 5G. Apartment 5L is circled. Its easily accessible window is hidden because of the angle of this photo. However you can see the top of the easily accessible window of 5H on first floor walkway (just to right of white downpipe), and the equivalent easily accessible window of 5L is directly above it on second-floor walkway. (photo credit: Haden)
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Brietta on September 20, 2014, 10:34:32 PM
The natural reaction would be to run in the opposite direction of the opened window. So that would mean into either into the lounge, or into the other bedroom - I am not sure which. (Another possibility would be to run out onto the balcony, however I think that is less likely).
In one of the statements in the files it was suggested that holidaymakers were carelessly leaving doors unlocked enabling burglars to gain access easily. This suggests that there was no obvious sign that the accommodation had been entered and exited by the expediency of lifting the shutter and sliding the window. I think they used keys to enter. As you say empty properties were preferred suggesting surveillance, although that went wrong in Mrs Fenn’s case.
The independent witnesses who recorded instances of men watching 5a are too numerous to ignore.
I think that taken in conjunction with the phone calls at critical times, for example when the family picked up the children from the crèche, there is compelling reason to suggest the McCanns were under surveillance.
I also think that there was no intention to burgle 5a, I think Madeleine was targeted.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Brietta on September 20, 2014, 11:08:09 PM
Window of 5A which was opened is circled. Front door of 5G is circled and to its right is the easily accessible window of 5G. Apartment 5L is circled. Its easily accessible window is hidden because of the angle of this photo. However you can see the top of the easily accessible window of 5H on first floor walkway (just to right of white downpipe), and the equivalent easily accessible window of 5L is directly above it on second-floor walkway. (photo credit: Haden)
Better angle showing shuttered windows on the upper floors, probably bedroom which would tie in with Anna's recollection. The circle is not mine, I think it was used to illustrate lack of security lighting.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Anna on September 20, 2014, 11:20:42 PM
In one of the statements in the files it was suggested that holidaymakers were carelessly leaving doors unlocked enabling burglars to gain access easily. This suggests that there was no obvious sign that the accommodation had been entered and exited by the expediency of lifting the shutter and sliding the window. I think they used keys to enter. As you say empty properties were preferred suggesting surveillance, although that went wrong in Mrs Fenn’s case.
The independent witnesses who recorded instances of men watching 5a are too numerous to ignore.
I think that taken in conjunction with the phone calls at critical times, for example when the family picked up the children from the crèche, there is compelling reason to suggest the McCanns were under surveillance.
I also think that there was no intention to burgle 5a, I think Madeleine was targeted.
I also think it was planned, but I like to explore every avenue of possibilities.I thought it must be the front door too, but why was the window open? If it was for an escape route, then the burglaries prove that someone could get out of that window. Several witness, I believe saw the same man.......who was recognised and named..No statement,,,He was eliminated. I am almost certain that he was the one that Tasmin spotted and I believe there is a photo.It was saved on my computer that died a few weeks back, but I may have a copy on the external hard drive.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: misty on September 20, 2014, 11:25:15 PM
Whoever entered Mrs Fenn's apartment clearly was not an accomplished burglar. Whilst we don't know how long he was in there, it surely must have been long enough for Mrs Fenn to park in the car park, climb the stairs & walk along the short corridor. Either that, or no real reconnaissance work had been done. Nothing was taken, so.... I've always been of the opinion that Madeleine was taken purely because she fitted a specific profile but I am now wondering if she was just a more general target in a specific apartment which had been identified as ideal for an abduction of a young blonde girl.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 20, 2014, 11:31:24 PM
Whoever entered Mrs Fenn's apartment clearly was not an accomplished burglar. Whilst we don't know how long he was in there, it surely must have been long enough for Mrs Fenn to park in the car park, climb the stairs & walk along the short corridor. Either that, or no real reconnaissance work had been done. Nothing was taken, so.... I've always been of the opinion that Madeleine was taken purely because she fitted a specific profile but I am now wondering if she was just a more general target in a specific apartment which had been identified as ideal for an abduction of a young blonde girl.
I think Mrs F was home when the man entered her apartment.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: misty on September 21, 2014, 12:11:00 AM
I think Mrs F was home when the man entered her apartment.
Even more amateurish, then, if true. It's a little difficult to know what to believe as far as Mrs Fenn is concerned - some reports say she was watching TV, others say her niece was with her at the time - not even a precise time of day or night.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 21, 2014, 05:34:58 PM
"Mrs Fenn ... discovered a man scrambling out of the window. She tried to grab his ankle but he escaped." 5G has numerous windows - but only one window through which it is possible to escape without requiring then falling down or clambering down a great height. Therefore that is the window through which the man escaped. It is the window on the first-floor communal walkway, next the 5G main door, see photos above. It is the window of the spare bedroom.
"She ...did not believe anything was taken." This indicates the man had only just that moment entered as he had not had time to steal even a single item. Therefore the man had entered through that same window (using the same opening technique as at 5L and 5A).
(Source: Express 18 Aug 2007 http://www.mccannfiles.com/id331.html )
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Brietta on September 21, 2014, 06:03:41 PM
With reference to the photograph of Apartment 5L which is dated 4th May: http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=5262.msg187507#msg187507 This apartment was apparently cleaned by MW and was presumed to be empty. Is the door open? Certainly the shutters are not closed they are raised as the curtains can be seen.
Is there any information about who was in this apartment on the 3rd and were the cleaners allowed to clean it on the 4th?
Sorry I am mistaken, it is apt 5K owned by Moyes ... so no mystery there.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 21, 2014, 08:04:50 PM
The burglar-accessible shuttered windows of 5L and 5G and 5A (Based on photo by Heri) (ETA although this 5L window is not quite as easy to access as it looks)
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: sadie on September 21, 2014, 10:25:18 PM
Burglar usually case a joint and tend to keep away from any property which has occupants. They could have had their pick of any unoccupied property in PdL that night but no, they chose one right next to the tapas bar and restaurant, was lit and which had three children in it. Not likely imo.
If Madeleine was abducted she was targeted.
8@??)( 8@??)( 8@??)(
Very good observation John
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 21, 2014, 10:34:31 PM
A burglar seeing the adults leaving a holiday flat and turning out all lights except one dim tablelamp as they leave, would certainly conclude that no-one is home.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: ferryman on September 21, 2014, 10:43:09 PM
In one of the statements in the files it was suggested that holidaymakers were carelessly leaving doors unlocked enabling burglars to gain access easily. This suggests that there was no obvious sign that the accommodation had been entered and exited by the expediency of lifting the shutter and sliding the window. I think they used keys to enter. As you say empty properties were preferred suggesting surveillance, although that went wrong in Mrs Fenn’s case.
The independent witnesses who recorded instances of men watching 5a are too numerous to ignore.
I think that taken in conjunction with the phone calls at critical times, for example when the family picked up the children from the crèche, there is compelling reason to suggest the McCanns were under surveillance.
I also think that there was no intention to burgle 5a, I think Madeleine was targeted.
There was a suggestion that Mrs Fenn's intruder got in using a key ...
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 21, 2014, 10:53:51 PM
In one of the statements in the files it was suggested that holidaymakers were carelessly leaving doors unlocked enabling burglars to gain access easily. This suggests that there was no obvious sign that the accommodation had been entered and exited by the expediency of lifting the shutter and sliding the window....
Well what sort of obvious signs might we expect if entry or attempted entry was by opening the shutter and window? How about an open shutter and an open window? Exactly as observed at the crime scenes, at 5A and at 5G.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: sadie on September 21, 2014, 11:08:42 PM
A burglar seeing the adults leaving a holiday flat and turning out all lights except one dim tablelamp as they leave, would certainly conclude that no-one is home.
You could be right Pegasus, but that means the apartment WAS being watched.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 21, 2014, 11:49:22 PM
We already have 5G and 5L. Here's another: An apartment very close to 5A, very similar layout of windows and doors, at about dusk, ground floor, no sign of forced entry, loot=cash/camera/mobiles, feb '07. (Also reportedly there were burglaries of three other nearby apartments around same time, and two of those were groundfloor also.)
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: misty on September 22, 2014, 12:07:10 AM
We already have 5G and 5L. Here's another: An apartment very close to 5A, similar layout, at about dusk, ground floor, no sign of forced entry, loot=cash/camera/mobiles, feb '07. (Also reportedly there were burglaries of three other nearby apartments around same time, and two of those were groundfloor also.)
So, maybe a tip-off from someone on reception regarding occupants who have not used the safety-deposit box facility? It did puzzle me that the McCanns' passports were on display in the apartment in the CS photos - surely the most important items to be kept secure (next to your children, of course)
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 22, 2014, 12:18:50 AM
So, maybe a tip-off from someone on reception regarding occupants who have not used the safety-deposit box facility? It did puzzle me that the McCanns' passports were on display in the apartment in the CS photos - surely the most important items to be kept secure (next to your children, of course)
I think requiring tip-offs about safe use is making it rather complicated. Simple petty burglary is much more likely. Add them up - the 3 burglaries I just mentioned around February, and BTW one of those was a return visit, then the two in April (5L and 5G). That makes six nearby burglaries before 5A.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pathfinder73 on September 22, 2014, 12:32:59 AM
A burglar seeing the adults leaving a holiday flat and turning out all lights except one dim tablelamp as they leave, would certainly conclude that no-one is home.
In that case he would have burgled it after they left at 8:30 and that didn't happen and no valuables were stolen. If anybody was watching they would have seen many movements back and forth which would put them off. From 8:30 to 8:55 they were all getting to the tapas bar. Matt goes and checks, as soon as gets back Gerry is on his way and noticed the door had moved. So any abductor didn't have much window of opportunity to sneak inside and move that door before Gerry's check.
8:30 Kate & Gerry 8:35 Jane 8:40 Rachel & Matt 8:45 Russ 8:57 Paynes 9 Matt 9:02 Gerry
One main window of opportunity 8:45 to 8:55 when Jez was walking the streets.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: misty on September 22, 2014, 12:36:45 AM
I think requiring tip-offs about safe use is making it rather complicated. Simple petty burglary is much more likely. Add them up - the 3 burglaries I just mentioned around February, and BTW one of those was a return visit, then the two in April (5L and 5G). That makes six nearby burglaries before 5A.
A thief doesn't normally target a place which is unlikely to have any cash or easily-disposed-of valuables lying around. Much easier if he knows in advance where there is likely to be cash etc left by a careless holidaymaker who hasn't used the OC's safety deposit system (assuming the holiday lets don't all have a room safe).
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 22, 2014, 12:55:54 AM
A thief doesn't normally target a place which is unlikely to have any cash or easily-disposed-of valuables lying around. Much easier if he knows in advance where there is likely to be cash etc left by a careless holidaymaker who hasn't used the OC's safety deposit system (assuming the holiday lets don't all have a room safe).
I think the majority of small petty burglars have no such integrated intelligence network. Basically it's need drugs, see holidaymakers going out and turning lights low, burgle.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pathfinder73 on September 22, 2014, 01:04:16 AM
She went twice then? You only say after 9:30 because of an open window. If Matt didn't do that 2nd check and noticed the door things would have changed. Door moves once which is strange and is found wide open before the alarm is raised - makes sense abductor has got away with Madeleine. But Matt didn't see it wide open but the same as Gerry found it after he put it back to ajar again. Well that's what he said 8)--)) Matt helped solve this case unless you think he's the abductor or Maddy woke up twice and moved the door twice. I would like to know the probability of that happening especially after Gerry said his daughter was still asleep in the exact same position at 9.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: misty on September 22, 2014, 01:16:32 AM
She went twice then? You only say after 9:30 because of an open window. If Matt didn't do that 2nd check and noticed the door things would have changed. Door moves once which is strange and is found wide open before the alarm is raised - makes sense abductor has got away with Madeleine. But Matt saw it not wide open but the same as Gerry found it after he put it back to jar again. Well that's what he said 8)--)) Matt helped solve this case unless you think he's the abductor or Maddy woke up twice and moved the door twice. I would like to know the probability of that happening especially after Gerry said his daughter was still asleep in the exact same position at 9.
I don't believe either Gerry or Matt would have even noticed if the door was not as Kate left it. Men tend not to notice those things (in his arguido statement Gerry couldn't even remember what Kate was wearing that night). It's strange - when a person is asked a question they are not expecting & haven't time to think, that person tends to tell the truth - in this case, the time of the abduction. It's in the files.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pathfinder73 on September 22, 2014, 01:21:16 AM
I don't believe either Gerry or Matt would have even noticed if the door was not as Kate left it. Men tend not to notice those things (in his arguido statement Gerry couldn't even remember what Kate was wearing that night). It's strange - when a person is asked a question they are not expecting & haven't time to think, that person tends to tell the truth - in this case, the time of the abduction. It's in the files.
Oh Gerry could remember the door moving and two exact times. Don't underestimate the McCanns. But maybe they didn't count on Matt remembering it too.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: misty on September 22, 2014, 01:22:43 AM
I think the majority of small petty burglars have no such integrated intelligence network. Basically it's need drugs, see holidaymakers going out and turning lights low, burgle.
OC had 50+ new employees that season, some with criminal records. Bit of a coincidence, that spate of burglaries. You need to know which apartments are worth breaking into - and that involves either inside knowledge or a lot of reconnaissance.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: misty on September 22, 2014, 01:27:22 AM
Oh Gerry could remember the door moving and two exact times. Don't underestimate the McCanns. But maybe they didn't count on Matt remembering it too.
Has it ever been discussed that perhaps when the patio door was opened, as the checkers entered, that the through draught moved the position of the bedroom door?
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 22, 2014, 01:41:30 AM
How many times do you think the door really moved Pathfinder?
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Brietta on September 22, 2014, 02:48:18 AM
She went twice then? You only say after 9:30 because of an open window. If Matt didn't do that 2nd check and noticed the door things would have changed. Door moves once which is strange and is found wide open before the alarm is raised - makes sense abductor has got away with Madeleine. But Matt didn't see it wide open but the same as Gerry found it after he put it back to ajar again. Well that's what he said 8)--)) Matt helped solve this case unless you think he's the abductor or Maddy woke up twice and moved the door twice. I would like to know the probability of that happening especially after Gerry said his daughter was still asleep in the exact same position at 9.
At the time three different people would not be aware that the position of the door had changed ... only in retrospect when everything was being gone over in fine detail would the information be collated and the possible significance realised.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pathfinder73 on September 22, 2014, 10:45:11 AM
Can you give proof of that? And give e logical reason why Kate had to make up about the door banging to and the curtains whooshing?
I can see no reason needed . Can you?
Logical and considerd answers only please .... in other words no rubbish, if you dont mind. Thanks 8((()*/
First visual checks of the week, sadie.
That.
Gerry looks in, Maddie is never seen again....
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: sadie on September 22, 2014, 11:56:48 AM
[quote removed]
Just a guess, based upon what you want to believe happened.
Are you sure that thye were the first visual checks? Or is that an embellishment?
Anyway, things were different that evening. That was the first evening that the door had moved.
Doors moved, no wonder visual checks were done .... as maybe they were also on previous nights? We just dont know EVERYTHING about what happened previously .... or even on that night. Inevitably, some finer details will not have been in the statements
Now with my children:
When they were little, we would put them to bed and when asleep, occasionally in the summer we would go out into the garden .... quite a big garden .... 50 metres long. the side of the house was unlocked. When we came in, sometimes several hours later, usually we would pop our heads ariound the door and glance in, but it was no big deal if we didn't.
All quiet equated to both kids soundly asleep.
We never expected ... nor ever dreamt that a man would come in and carry one away. Never heard of !
And my bet is that most of you followed the same pattern.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on September 22, 2014, 11:57:04 AM
Their reconstruction misrepresents the Smith's sighting, sadie.
Did Kate ever explain why she changed her story? http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=1126.0
Not only do the TAPAS forget what they said even the supporters forget.
Thank goodness we are here to remind them that the 'abduction' is still an un proven theory!
Burglars jemmying shutters-key carrying-using open doors- stole a sleeping/drugged child, who was being watched by everyone but her parents! Hmm logic is not here at all.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Eleanor on September 22, 2014, 03:03:08 PM
Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong? Thread Title, if you please.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: xtina on September 22, 2014, 04:44:10 PM
And give e logical reason why Kate had to make up about the door banging to and the curtains whooshing?
I can see no reason needed . Can you?
Logical and considerd answers only please .... in other words no rubbish, if you dont mind. Thanks 8((()*/
yes....................k mcc had to say the door slammed and the curtains whooshed ...or how else was she going to explain....the reason she thought maddie had been abducted.....don't... forgett... shee... kneww... rightt ...awayy
if that isn't logical and [concidered... spelt correctly]enough then ......tough
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 22, 2014, 07:03:17 PM
Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong? Thread Title, if you please.
Just brainstorming - What if the burglar opened the shutter and window from outside (very possible see Heriberto technique) but the shutter noise woke a child up and so the burglar fled before he even entered, and the child ran into another room and hid, either behind a piece of furniture, or underneath something in a cupboard?
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Anna on September 22, 2014, 07:15:14 PM
Was It a Burglary gone wrong? it could have been..............................................................................................
I have not ,as many of you on here have ,spent seven years studying this case, in fact I have spent less than a year ( I wish I had read the starter book..Looking for Madeliene back then) and initially , I was suspicious of the parents, who left their children unattended……….But ,for the love of God! have they not had enough, in the way of punishment?
What do people want in the way of punishment, to satisfy their hunger for Blood? The parents have worked hard to discover what became of their child, instead of melting into the background, as would be expected of a criminal, guilty of the accusations being made against them.
I also believe their arrogance, discipline, confidence and determination, has angered many and caused much dislike for the couple.Does that make them criminal? And what has Money, books. what they wear. how they react to a situation, where they go and who they sue, got to do with us trying to discover what might have happened to their missing child.
There is more discussion on Gerry and Kate’s faults (from some quarters) than the investigation and what might have become of MM
They have other children who need to be considered and helped to adjust to a normal life, by the parents intervention and ours, if compassion lives within one’s heart.
Since starting to study the case(almost daily), I have checked all the evidence(of which there is next to none), files,statements, facts and anything else that could bring about a decision as to my thoughts and conclusions.
I believe a burglary gone wrong or abduction, is the only conclusions believable in this case, although I still have a fairly open mind, should there be other reliable evidence introduced.
Decision Makers on alternatives to abduction Even if it was an accident that occurred on the night of the 3rd Why not wait until morning and report after disposal and getting a story together? There is no way I believe an intelligent, parent could so un-ceremonially, dispose of their first born child’s body in a hurried and uncaring manner, as suggested by some theories, such as:-
1.hiding a body and then retrieving a body to hide it again (in an area where wild dogs roamed?) after changing clothes of the child and the body-concealer himself. All in record breaking, stand still or rewound time. 2.Putting in a bin…………………………Awful thing to think or for any parent to even consider, but someone disposed of his dog in that way (so he says) 3.Burning (I believe this I heard in an Amaral interview)…Bizarre! To say the least. How the hell, would this be achieved ? 4.Burying………….Well , where? 5.Ocean…………….Fair chance it would be washed up somewhere, but nothing! 6. Freezing ………………definitely Bizarre, again. You know from where this came. 7. In a coffin with another inhabitant …………………….Brrrrrrr, made me shudder! Well????????????????? Again you know where this came from
Other thoughts Left the Apt and she fell down a hole or roadwork diggings…………….A possibility. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
No…. I believe all of the above to be extremely unlikely, but I do not claim to know what happened to that beautiful child and neither does anyone else know, even although they may claim to know. The only person/s who can say he or she definitely knows, what happened to her, is the person responsible for her disappearance. The words-whoshed, doorslamming, “I knew she had been taken” “Short sleeves” etc. etc. mean absolutely nothing as they are evidence of no consequence to the case being investigated………….. After all why do you think that Kate would incriminate herself, purposely?
We can only speculate on what happened, while we wait for the outcome of the investigation. I pray the results will be of a positive nature and not another negative outcome, which leaves the family without closure.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Brietta on September 22, 2014, 08:00:42 PM
Was It a Burglary gone wrong? it could have been..............................................................................................
I have not ,as many of you on here have ,spent seven years studying this case, in fact I have spent less than a year ( I wish I had read the starter book..Looking for Madeliene back then) and initially , I was suspicious of the parents, who left their children unattended……….But ,for the love of God! have they not had enough, in the way of punishment?
What do people want in the way of punishment, to satisfy their hunger for Blood? The parents have worked hard to discover what became of their child, instead of melting into the background, as would be expected of a criminal, guilty of the accusations being made against them.
I also believe their arrogance, discipline, confidence and determination, has angered many and caused much dislike for the couple.Does that make them criminal? And what has Money, books. what they wear. how they react to a situation, where they go and who they sue, got to do with us trying to discover what might have happened to their missing child.
There is more discussion on Gerry and Kate’s faults (from some quarters) than the investigation and what might have become of MM
They have other children who need to be considered and helped to adjust to a normal life, by the parents intervention and ours, if compassion lives within one’s heart.
Since starting to study the case(almost daily), I have checked all the evidence(of which there is next to none), files,statements, facts and anything else that could bring about a decision as to my thoughts and conclusions.
I believe a burglary gone wrong or abduction, is the only conclusions believable in this case, although I still have a fairly open mind, should there be other reliable evidence introduced.
Decision Makers on alternatives to abduction Even if it was an accident that occurred on the night of the 3rd Why not wait until morning and report after disposal and getting a story together? There is no way I believe an intelligent, parent could so un-ceremonially, dispose of their first born child’s body in a hurried and uncaring manner, as suggested by some theories, such as:-
1.hiding a body and then retrieving a body to hide it again (in an area where wild dogs roamed?) after changing clothes of the child and the body-concealer himself. All in record breaking, stand still or rewound time. 2.Putting in a bin…………………………Awful thing to think or for any parent to even consider, but someone disposed of his dog in that way (so he says) 3.Burning (I believe this I heard in an Amaral interview)…Bizarre! To say the least. How the hell, would this be achieved ? 4.Burying………….Well , where? 5.Ocean…………….Fair chance it would be washed up somewhere, but nothing! 6. Freezing ………………definitely Bizarre, again. You know from where this came. 7. In a coffin with another inhabitant …………………….Brrrrrrr, made me shudder! Well????????????????? Again you know where this came from
Other thoughts Left the Apt and she fell down a hole or roadwork diggings…………….A possibility. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
No…. I believe all of the above to be extremely unlikely, but I do not claim to know what happened to that beautiful child and neither does anyone else know, even although they may claim to know. The only person/s who can say he or she definitely knows, what happened to her, is the person responsible for her disappearance. The words-whoshed, doorslamming, “I knew she had been taken” “Short sleeves” etc. etc. mean absolutely nothing as they are evidence of no consequence to the case being investigated………….. After all why do you think that Kate would incriminate herself, purposely?
We can only speculate on what happened, while we wait for the outcome of the investigation. I pray the results will be of a positive nature and not another negative outcome, which leaves the family without closure.
8@??)( Excellent post, Anna. 8@??)(
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Miss Taken Identity on September 22, 2014, 08:08:25 PM
I think there is a misconception that those who do not believe an abduction took pace are all rounded up to be 'ha ters'... that says more about the people labeling then the non sheeples.
Anna, Most people who follow the case have a THEORY. no one has claimed , as far as I am aware they they KNOW. only Kate claims to know, and her supporters.
A burglar did not steal Maddie via climbing in and out of a window!
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Miss Taken Identity on September 22, 2014, 08:15:18 PM
Was It a Burglary gone wrong? it could have been..............................................................................................
I have not ,as many of you on here have ,spent seven years studying this case, in fact I have spent less than a year ( I wish I had read the starter book..Looking for Madeliene back then) and initially , I was suspicious of the parents, who left their children unattended……….But ,for the love of God! have they not had enough, in the way of punishment?
What do people want in the way of punishment, to satisfy their hunger for Blood? The parents have worked hard to discover what became of their child, instead of melting into the background, as would be expected of a criminal, guilty of the accusations being made against them.
I also believe their arrogance, discipline, confidence and determination, has angered many and caused much dislike for the couple.Does that make them criminal? And what has Money, books. what they wear. how they react to a situation, where they go and who they sue, got to do with us trying to discover what might have happened to their missing child.
There is more discussion on Gerry and Kate’s faults (from some quarters) than the investigation and what might have become of MM
They have other children who need to be considered and helped to adjust to a normal life, by the parents intervention and ours, if compassion lives within one’s heart.
Since starting to study the case(almost daily), I have checked all the evidence(of which there is next to none), files,statements, facts and anything else that could bring about a decision as to my thoughts and conclusions.
I believe a burglary gone wrong or abduction, is the only conclusions believable in this case, although I still have a fairly open mind, should there be other reliable evidence introduced.
Decision Makers on alternatives to abduction Even if it was an accident that occurred on the night of the 3rd Why not wait until morning and report after disposal and getting a story together? There is no way I believe an intelligent, parent could so un-ceremonially, dispose of their first born child’s body in a hurried and uncaring manner, as suggested by some theories, such as:-
1.hiding a body and then retrieving a body to hide it again (in an area where wild dogs roamed?) after changing clothes of the child and the body-concealer himself. All in record breaking, stand still or rewound time. 2.Putting in a bin…………………………Awful thing to think or for any parent to even consider, but someone disposed of his dog in that way (so he says) 3.Burning (I believe this I heard in an Amaral interview)…Bizarre! To say the least. How the hell, would this be achieved ? 4.Burying………….Well , where? 5.Ocean…………….Fair chance it would be washed up somewhere, but nothing! 6. Freezing ………………definitely Bizarre, again. You know from where this came. 7. In a coffin with another inhabitant …………………….Brrrrrrr, made me shudder! Well????????????????? Again you know where this came from
Other thoughts Left the Apt and she fell down a hole or roadwork diggings…………….A possibility. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
No…. I believe all of the above to be extremely unlikely, but I do not claim to know what happened to that beautiful child and neither does anyone else know, even although they may claim to know. The only person/s who can say he or she definitely knows, what happened to her, is the person responsible for her disappearance. The words-whoshed, doorslamming, “I knew she had been taken” “Short sleeves” etc. etc. mean absolutely nothing as they are evidence of no consequence to the case being investigated………….. After all why do you think that Kate would incriminate herself, purposely?
We can only speculate on what happened, while we wait for the outcome of the investigation. I pray the results will be of a positive nature and not another negative outcome, which leaves the family without closure.
Great post Anna 8@??)( 8@??)(
You have got further in one year than most people on here have done in seven years.
Well done kiddo ! 8((()*/
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 23, 2014, 12:40:10 AM
The only sense in which it was bungled is - the burglar thought there was no-one in, but there was.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 23, 2014, 12:51:48 AM
BTW one of the additional nearby burglaries I mentioned was at a groundfloor apartment very close to 5A and identical in layout to 5A.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Brietta on September 23, 2014, 01:24:11 AM
I think there is a misconception that those who do not believe an abduction took pace are all rounded up to be 'ha ters'... that says more about the people labeling then the non sheeples.
Anna, Most people who follow the case have a THEORY. no one has claimed , as far as I am aware they they KNOW. only Kate claims to know, and her supporters.
A burglar did not steal Maddie via climbing in and out of a window!
To entertain a THEORY one must have something approaching probability to go on.
However such claims are suspect in the face of the unbridled hostility directed at Madeleine McCann's parents which ultimately encompasses Madeleine herself in the exposition of these weird and wunnerful THEORIES.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pathfinder73 on September 23, 2014, 02:35:33 AM
Russell O'Brien Rog
I did a visual check of the children on the Sunday night, entered through the patio door so I’d been in through that part of the door err that part of the building. Err I think until, actually until the night itself.
Err in terms of entering the bedroom, I don’t, I don’t think I ever actually went into the bedroom on the Sunday night, I’d kind of gone into the door frame you know and just looked, looked in like that.
Russell could see the kids on his check in the room. He never said he had to open the door from ajar to be able to see. If he's telling the truth the door would have to be half-open for him to do a visual check on the kids just like Matt found it on his check. That backs up my theory of a door that never moved &%+((£
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 23, 2014, 02:53:53 AM
I did a visual check of the children on the Sunday night, entered through the patio door so I’d been in through that part of the door err that part of the building. Err I think until, actually until the night itself.
Err in terms of entering the bedroom, I don’t, I don’t think I ever actually went into the bedroom on the Sunday night, I’d kind of gone into the door frame you know and just looked, looked in like that.
Russell could see the kids on his check in the room. He never said he had to open the door from ajar to be able to see. If he's telling the truth the door would have to be half-open for him to do a visual check on the kids just like Matt found it on his check. That backs up my theory of a door that never moved &%+((£
Good point (although maybe it's possible he might have moved the door and just not mentioned it). But IIRC that door has no place in your theory anyway. BTW through which door or doors do you think the removal really was?
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: ferryman on September 23, 2014, 09:45:34 AM
Was It a Burglary gone wrong? it could have been..............................................................................................
I have not ,as many of you on here have ,spent seven years studying this case, in fact I have spent less than a year ( I wish I had read the starter book..Looking for Madeliene back then) and initially , I was suspicious of the parents, who left their children unattended……….But ,for the love of God! have they not had enough, in the way of punishment?
What do people want in the way of punishment, to satisfy their hunger for Blood? The parents have worked hard to discover what became of their child, instead of melting into the background, as would be expected of a criminal, guilty of the accusations being made against them.
I also believe their arrogance, discipline, confidence and determination, has angered many and caused much dislike for the couple.Does that make them criminal? And what has Money, books. what they wear. how they react to a situation, where they go and who they sue, got to do with us trying to discover what might have happened to their missing child.
There is more discussion on Gerry and Kate’s faults (from some quarters) than the investigation and what might have become of MM
They have other children who need to be considered and helped to adjust to a normal life, by the parents intervention and ours, if compassion lives within one’s heart.
Since starting to study the case(almost daily), I have checked all the evidence(of which there is next to none), files,statements, facts and anything else that could bring about a decision as to my thoughts and conclusions.
I believe a burglary gone wrong or abduction, is the only conclusions believable in this case, although I still have a fairly open mind, should there be other reliable evidence introduced.
Decision Makers on alternatives to abduction Even if it was an accident that occurred on the night of the 3rd Why not wait until morning and report after disposal and getting a story together? There is no way I believe an intelligent, parent could so un-ceremonially, dispose of their first born child’s body in a hurried and uncaring manner, as suggested by some theories, such as:-
1.hiding a body and then retrieving a body to hide it again (in an area where wild dogs roamed?) after changing clothes of the child and the body-concealer himself. All in record breaking, stand still or rewound time. 2.Putting in a bin…………………………Awful thing to think or for any parent to even consider, but someone disposed of his dog in that way (so he says) 3.Burning (I believe this I heard in an Amaral interview)…Bizarre! To say the least. How the hell, would this be achieved ? 4.Burying………….Well , where? 5.Ocean…………….Fair chance it would be washed up somewhere, but nothing! 6. Freezing ………………definitely Bizarre, again. You know from where this came. 7. In a coffin with another inhabitant …………………….Brrrrrrr, made me shudder! Well????????????????? Again you know where this came from
Other thoughts Left the Apt and she fell down a hole or roadwork diggings…………….A possibility. ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
No…. I believe all of the above to be extremely unlikely, but I do not claim to know what happened to that beautiful child and neither does anyone else know, even although they may claim to know. The only person/s who can say he or she definitely knows, what happened to her, is the person responsible for her disappearance. The words-whoshed, doorslamming, “I knew she had been taken” “Short sleeves” etc. etc. mean absolutely nothing as they are evidence of no consequence to the case being investigated………….. After all why do you think that Kate would incriminate herself, purposely?
We can only speculate on what happened, while we wait for the outcome of the investigation. I pray the results will be of a positive nature and not another negative outcome, which leaves the family without closure.
Good post, but on the one I underline, the authors had established that that had been checked (open roadworks, close to apartment 5a the night Madeleine went missing) with no trace of anything human.
Page 36:
Another British citizen, Rex Morgan, would report having seen a manhole with a cover removed in the same general area. 'The road is lit by street lighting', Morgan said, 'but anyone could have fallen in'. The police files contained a report showing that municipal workers were much later questioned about these hazards, but that they carefully checked the roadworks on May 4th: nothing found ....
Swan and Summer: Looking for Madeleine
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Brietta on September 23, 2014, 10:02:05 AM
Good post, but on the one I underline, the authors had established that that had been checked (open roadworks, close to apartment 5a the night Madeleine went missing) with no trace of anything human.
From what I remember of the statement in the files, the PJ were content to take the word of the person in charge that the workmen had checked the trenches before filling them in.
I do not think that was good enough.
I think the assumption was that if Madeleine had fallen in she would have been discovered. I think that as soon as it was known that a small child was missing work should have been halted on open trenches and specialist excavation ordered under the supervision of the PJ.
For example the search and rescue dogs - either GNR or mountain rescue - would possibly have been appropriate to use as the circumstances probably suited their training.
Perhaps the use of a forensic anthropologist?
I don't think Madeleine was in a trench nor do I think she was in a dumpster ... but it is my opinion those possible locations were not searched appropriately to eliminate them in a case of this kind.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Brietta on September 23, 2014, 10:07:15 AM
Good point (although maybe it's possible he might have moved the door and just not mentioned it). But IIRC that door has no place in your theory anyway. BTW through which door or doors do you think the removal really was?
That question definitely needs to be asked but I think he would have mentioned it. It seems the door was half-open as Matt found it on his check which backs up my theory that it was always in that position and never moved.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 23, 2014, 02:29:45 PM
Love the avi ... do you have problems with people setting their terriers on your toes?
Thanks. Not so far. I only wear them when hiding in shrubbery. BTW they are a rare variety of mink, according to the man I bought them from in the pub.
Back to burglary: what does a child typically do if the parents are out and a burglar starts to enter the residence?
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 23, 2014, 05:44:19 PM
This kid was home alone, his parents were out. He was laying on his bed, when he heard noises and saw shadows at his bedroom window. Then someone started entering through his bedroom window. What did he do?
He went from his bedroom to the parents' bedroom And hid in the wardrobe Behind behind lots of clothing So even if someone opened the wardrobe door they wouldn't see him
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTRHr0jkqVM
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 23, 2014, 06:36:09 PM
More burglaries gone wrong - because the burglars didn't realise there were kids inside. These 2 kids hid in a closet http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865600086/Two-young-girls-hide-in-closet-after-burglars-break-into-their-Ogden-home.html?pg=all And so did these 3 kids http://articles.orlandosentinel.com/2013-06-27/news/os-sanford-burglary-children-20130627_1_burglary-three-suspects-6-year-old-girl
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: sadie on September 23, 2014, 09:40:50 PM
I have recounted this before, but I will tell you again.
I know a boy that this happened to. His parents were well established business people. They had a VERY expensive collector type car parked up outside their luxury home, but it was rarely moved.
The boy, about 13 years old was in his bedroom when he heard voices and became aware that intruders were in his home. Terrified, he locked himself in his bedroom en-suite. The intruders came into his room but never tried the bathroom door.
They stole a number of valuables and the car.
This boy was so traumatised that even tho old enough to come home from school on his own, after that his grandparents had to pick him up and keep him at their home until his parents returned. It must have been well over 12 months ago, but he still is very nervius and he has gone very quiet. Withdrawn into himself, I suppose.
I dont know if he managed to call the police whilst they were there ... or just dashed to hide
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 23, 2014, 10:46:13 PM
I have recounted this before, but I will tell you again.
I know a boy that this happened to. His parents were well established business people. They had a VERY expensive collector type car parked up outside their luxury home, but it was rarely moved.
The boy, about 13 years old was in his bedroom when he heard voices and became aware that intruders were in his home. Terrified, he locked himself in his bedroom en-suite. The intruders came into his room but never tried the bathroom door.
They stole a number of valuables and the car.
This boy was so traumatised that even tho old enough to come home from school on his own, after that his grandparents had to pick him up and keep him at their home until his parents returned. It must have been well over 12 months ago, but he still is very nervius and he has gone very quiet. Withdrawn into himself, I suppose.
I dont know if he managed to call the police whilst they were there ... or just dashed to hide
Yes if the intruder enters in another part of the house, the intelligent response of the child is to stay in his/her bedroom and hide there, either in a closet, or (in the case you recount) in the child bedroom ensuite.
But if the attempted entry is via the child bedroom window, the intelligent response of the child is to exit that room fast, and either (A) go into another bedroom and hide in a closet there, or (B) go into the lounge and hide behind a sofa which is up against a wall.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Brietta on September 23, 2014, 11:54:15 PM
Yes if the intruder enters in another part of the house, the intelligent response of the child is to stay in his/her bedroom and hide there, either in a closet, or (in the case you recount) in the child bedroom ensuite.
But if the attempted entry is via the child bedroom window, the intelligent response of the child is to exit that room fast, and either (A) go into another bedroom and hide in a closet there, or (B) go into the lounge and hide behind a sofa which is up against a wall.
Then what? If the sofa was up against a wall how could she hide behind it?
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 24, 2014, 12:44:31 AM
Then what? If the sofa was up against a wall how could she hide behind it?
I have only got as far as going into another room and hiding, which would be an intelligent response to an attempted burglary in the initial room, and there are plenty of precedents for it
And sorry I meant fairly close to the wall, for example 20 cm. However, in the numerous other cases of attempted burglaries of residences containing home-alone kids, there are quite a few closet examples but I found no sofa examples at all yet.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 24, 2014, 04:18:30 PM
This case in the USA features a child whose parents have gone out. He is in his bedroom. Someone outside starts to gain entry through his bedroom window.
This is a very relevant case because the location of attempted entry is in the same room that the child is in.
So we can use this case to understand what a child would do in that scenario
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTRHr0jkqVM
Faced with this event happening outside his window, here is how the child modified his location:
1. Went into a different room Sensible, move away from the perceived danger.
2. In that other room, hid. Sensible, become invisible.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on September 24, 2014, 04:21:52 PM
This case in the USA features a child whose parents have gone out. He is in his bedroom. Someone outside starts to gain entry through his bedroom window.
This is a very relevant case because the location of attempted entry is in the same room that the child is in.
So we can use this case to understand what a child would do in that scenario
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTRHr0jkqVM
Faced with this event happening outside his window, here is how the child modified his location:
1. Went into a different room Sensible, move away from the perceived danger.
2. In that other room, hid. Sensible, become invisible.
Right yes we got that, so then what?
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Brietta on September 24, 2014, 08:34:07 PM
This case in the USA features a child whose parents have gone out. He is in his bedroom. Someone outside starts to gain entry through his bedroom window.
This is a very relevant case because the location of attempted entry is in the same room that the child is in.
So we can use this case to understand what a child would do in that scenario
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTRHr0jkqVM
Faced with this event happening outside his window, here is how the child modified his location:
1. Went into a different room Sensible, move away from the perceived danger.
2. In that other room, hid. Sensible, become invisible.
I don’t think entry was attempted via the window, I think the window was opened after entry via the door, whether the unlocked veranda or the wooden door using a key, I have no idea.
I don’t think it was an attempted burglary gone wrong, I think Madeleine was the target from the word go.
There were too many witnesses to strange behaviour in the immediate vicinity of the apartment to ignore that there could be a connection to what happened to Madeleine. I do not believe any of these strangely behaved and odd looking men were traced and eliminated from the inquiry and surely that was a grave failure on the part of the investigators.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 24, 2014, 09:58:15 PM
Well there have been many cases of a child, at home unsupervised, hiding in response to an attempted burglary. I posted only a fraction of them. And obviously if the attempted entry is in the same room, the response is to go to a different room. So that much is fairly straightforward, requiring no convoluted assumptions, every component can be shown to have happened in other cases. Also already the positions of shutter, window, and internal door - the entire scene in that north bedroom - are explained. As for what happened next, I don't exactly know.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Anna on September 24, 2014, 10:20:09 PM
This case in the USA features a child whose parents have gone out. He is in his bedroom. Someone outside starts to gain entry through his bedroom window.
This is a very relevant case because the location of attempted entry is in the same room that the child is in.
So we can use this case to understand what a child would do in that scenario
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTRHr0jkqVM
Faced with this event happening outside his window, here is how the child modified his location:
1. Went into a different room Sensible, move away from the perceived danger.
2. In that other room, hid. Sensible, become invisible.
But she wasnt even 4 yet. She wouldn't think to run anywhere. I doubt she had ever come into contact with an untrustworthy adult.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Brietta on September 24, 2014, 10:41:01 PM
But she wasnt even 4 yet. She wouldn't think to run anywhere. I doubt she had ever come into contact with an untrustworthy adult.
I think a child of that age would not comprehend the implication of an intruder with wicked intent; if frightened I think her idea of 'hiding' would be under her bed covers while cuddling something for comfort, either her soft toy or her blanket. I don't think she would run to hide.
Heri has demonstrated how a child could have been easily lifted out of the open window if curious enough to approach.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 24, 2014, 10:49:01 PM
But she wasnt even 4 yet. She wouldn't think to run anywhere. I doubt she had ever come into contact with an untrustworthy adult.
Are you proposing that a 3 year old in bed, seeing someone opening the window of her room from outside, would not be capable of thinking to get out of bed and go into another room?
IMO 3-year olds are intelligent - here is a video of a 3-year-old girl who, when her dad suddenly became unconscious, walked (without any help or instruction) to the fire station to alert the paramedics.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bs-S7n9yUTc
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 26, 2014, 10:13:01 PM
The difference is that I dont think that she woke and walked., I think she had been drugged either at the crech or at tea time.
You go on about the noise of the shutter being opened.
The abductor would be as quiet as humanely possible, and have you thought about the fact that if he opened it from outside, the window inside was still closed and would considerably deaden the sound. I imagine the window would then slide open pretty quietly.
I believe s/he came in via the front door using a key. Tis the obvious way in and seems this method had been used on several other apartments in the days/weeks before..
Someone was giving them access to keys, it seems.
The opening technique is 1. lift the shutter a little, 2. slide the window open, 3. reach in to raise shutter fully using the strap. It is that last part which makes the loud noise, and this is loud inside the room because it comes after sliding the window open.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: sadie on September 26, 2014, 10:43:06 PM
The opening technique is 1. lift the shutter a little, 2. slide the window open, 3. reach in to raise shutter fully using the strap. It is that last part which makes the loud noise, and this is loud inside the room because it comes after sliding the window open.
But I dont think it was opened very high, was it? You may be right tho.
I wonder just how noisy it was. Must ring Heri., but not tonight. Too late and I am tired .
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Anna on September 26, 2014, 11:02:09 PM
The opening technique is 1. lift the shutter a little, 2. slide the window open, 3. reach in to raise shutter fully using the strap. It is that last part which makes the loud noise, and this is loud inside the room because it comes after sliding the window open.
If the children were oblivious to noise, it wouldn't have mattered. But why were they knocked out and how? It could only have been drugs or a chloroform type of substance like gas or such like, but on second thoughts.....I know the sea air and activities that they participated in must have made them tired. My children, if tired enough, would sleep throughout a journey or a noisy celebration/party and storms that shook the windows, so it's difficult to tell really.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Brietta on September 26, 2014, 11:20:05 PM
If the children were oblivious to noise, it wouldn't have mattered. But why were they knocked out and how? It could only have been drugs or a chloroform type of substance like gas or such like, but on second thoughts.....I know the sea air and activities that they participated in must have made them tired. My children, if tired enough, would sleep throughout a journey or a noisy celebration/party and storms that shook the windows, so it's difficult to tell really.
It is difficult to tell and once a child is in a sound sleep it is possible to move them without disturbing them. I think this is particularly so if they are in a routine as the twins were ... sleep soundly during the night and up at the crack of dawn ... I know mine did so. It is even possible to walk them in a pram from A to B and transfer them to bed without waking them.
I think the description of Madeleine being so tired she had to be carried home and her father's opinion that she had not moved position in bed indicates that she might have been drugged at tea in the crèche.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Miss Taken Identity on September 26, 2014, 11:29:42 PM
Burglary gone wrong?
Have we not covered the newest bested version of what happened?
People were watching and acting suspicious all over the place- it's a wonder anyone got any sleep! if they were watching they knew the children were in there alone a chance they may wake up crying- the to ing and fro ing of parents falling over themselves to 'check' the children..would the jammying and pulling at shutters not leave any trace? or noise? maybe they had cleaning products to remove any evidence...
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: sadie on September 26, 2014, 11:40:49 PM
Have we not covered the newest bested version of what happened?
People were watching and acting suspicious all over the place- it's a wonder anyone got any sleep! if they were watching they knew the children were in there alone a chance they may wake up crying- the to ing and fro ing of parents falling over themselves to 'check' the children..would the jammying and pulling at shutters not leave any trace? or noise? maybe they had cleaning products to remove any evidence...
ORLY? @)(++(*
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 27, 2014, 12:37:21 AM
Are you proposing that a 3 year old in bed, seeing someone opening the window of her room from outside, would not be capable of thinking to get out of bed and go into another room?
IMO 3-year olds are intelligent - here is a video of a 3-year-old girl who, when her dad suddenly became unconscious, walked (without any help or instruction) to the fire station to alert the paramedics.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bs-S7n9yUTc
A child of 3-4 may well understand when something is wrong with a loved one, but they are so trusting at that age. There are children who have reason to mistrust adults, but a normally adjusted child probably would not. I have lots of experience in this age group as well as younger and older children and I am sorry to disagree. I do not believe a 4 year old would run, before she knew who it was or felt threatened. However if a shadow fell over her window it could frighten her into crying or calling for Daddy. I still wonder if previous attempts were made on the days before thursday and this is why, drugs or sprays of some sort could have been used. But then the front door would probably also be used. I read a statement from a holiday res prior to McCanns, who said the cleaner would just walk in, in the morning and sometimes it was inconvenient, so they doublelocked the door and left the key in the lock on the inside, however the cleaner still got in............How, she does not know.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 27, 2014, 12:51:12 AM
If the children were oblivious to noise, it wouldn't have mattered. But why were they knocked out and how? It could only have been drugs or a chloroform type of substance like gas or such like, but on second thoughts.....I know the sea air and activities that they participated in must have made them tired. My children, if tired enough, would sleep throughout a journey or a noisy celebration/party and storms that shook the windows, so it's difficult to tell really.
If oblivious to noise then the noise wouldn't matter, that is true. But the indications are that one person did wake up.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Anna on September 27, 2014, 12:55:35 AM
Mainly to the two facts at 10pm (1) the window and shutter was open (2) the child was not in bed. Together these indicate that the noise + sight of the shutter raising caused to walk/run to another room. Equally predictable is the opener outside would flee on seeing someone inside. The door being wider open happens to fit the theory well.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pathfinder73 on September 27, 2014, 02:09:05 AM
From statements:
1. Door ajar 8:30
2. Door moved to half-open 8:35 - 9pm
3. Door back to ajar at 9:05
4. Door moved a second time once again to half-open 9:10 - 9:25
5. Door moved a third time to wide open 9:35 - 9:50
Any stranger abduction theory has to account for all 3 door moves. Good luck 8)--))
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 27, 2014, 02:28:16 AM
@pathfinder Your theory for that evening up to 10pm IIRC has the door never moving, the shutter never opening, the window never opening, and the child never even being in that room. Do you yourself have any theory at all about which room the child was in that evening from 17:30 onwards?
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pathfinder73 on September 27, 2014, 03:35:19 AM
@pathfinder Your theory for that evening up to 10pm IIRC has the door never moving, the shutter never opening, the window never opening, and the child never even being in that room. Do you yourself have any theory at all about which room the child was in that evening from 17:30 onwards?
And that explains a desperate open carrying Smithman heading towards the beach - a missing child can't be found dead close to 5A just after the alarm is raised. How did an abductor have time to abduct, kill her and leave her there - what would time of death reveal if found? The child had to be moved further away from the crime scene and Smithman was heading towards the safest place, the beach where it's dark and quiet. The sun doesn't rise for another 8 hours.
No child had any reason to enter the bedroom before going to bed. That room was kept dark all week and was only used for sleeping in. So from 5:40 to 7pm they would mainly be in the sitting room.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on September 27, 2014, 06:49:01 PM
And that explains a desperate open carrying Smithman heading towards the beach - a missing child can't be found dead close to 5A just after the alarm is raised. How did an abductor have time to abduct, kill her and leave her there - what would time of death reveal if found? The child had to be moved further away from the crime scene and Smithman was heading towards the safest place, the beach where it's dark and quiet. The sun doesn't rise for another 8 hours.
No child had any reason to enter the bedroom before going to bed. That room was kept dark all week and was only used for sleeping in. So from 5:40 to 7pm they would mainly be in the sitting room.
So that evening, your theory has the child situated in the lounge up to about 19:00 but never in the north bedroom.
I am guessing that sometime after 19:00 your theory has an adult going into the north bedroom to place toy on bed?
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Mr Moderator on September 30, 2014, 01:03:15 PM
From what I remember of the statement in the files, the PJ were content to take the word of the person in charge that the workmen had checked the trenches before filling them in.
I do not think that was good enough.
I think the assumption was that if Madeleine had fallen in she would have been discovered. I think that as soon as it was known that a small child was missing work should have been halted on open trenches and specialist excavation ordered under the supervision of the PJ.
For example the search and rescue dogs - either GNR or mountain rescue - would possibly have been appropriate to use as the circumstances probably suited their training.
Perhaps the use of a forensic anthropologist?
I don't think Madeleine was in a trench nor do I think she was in a dumpster ... but it is my opinion those possible locations were not searched appropriately to eliminate them in a case of this kind.
A good post Brietta. It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that a child could fall into an open trench bringing fill material in on top of him or her as they fell. Workmen could very easily miss a child in such a situation.
Similarly, a child falling down an open culvert as a result of a displaced manhole cover could end up just about anywhere in the underground system and unless it is all checked properly using cctv then that child might not be discovered.
I don't believe the sewer and rainwater overflow systems were all checked in Praia da Luz after Madeleine disappeared, can anyone verify this?
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Carana on October 01, 2014, 04:14:48 PM
A good post Brietta. It is not beyond the bounds of possibility that a child could fall into an open trench bringing fill material in on top of him or her as they fell. Workmen could very easily miss a child in such a situation.
Similarly, a child falling down an open culvert as a result of a displaced manhole cover could end up just about anywhere in the underground system and unless it is all checked properly using cctv then that child might not be discovered.
I don't believe the sewer and rainwater overflow systems were all checked in Praia da Luz after Madeleine disappeared, can anyone verify this?
There was an open manhole that evening.
I would further like to say that in connection with the disappearance of Madeleine, I saw a manhole with a cover removed.
This manhole is situated on a junction of a road that runs parallel to the supermarket near to the Tapas Bar and the McCanns apartment. The cover along with the surround that been removed and placed to the side of the road.
The road is lit by street lighting but I believe you would not have seen the hole and anyone could have fallen in.
I returned the next day and noticed that the cover had been replaced. I am concerned that she may have fallen down the manhole and was not seen. http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/REX-MORGAN.htm
If it was a cavity with a bottom and a hole in the side for just passing cables, then she couldn't have passed through. However, if it was a deeper one for sewage or rainwater passing into some kind of evacuation system, then I would have thought it possible, but then presumably the body would have washed up somewhere or created a noticeable blockage at some point.
I haven't found anything about a thorough verification of sewerage / rainfall evacuation at the time.
From what I can gather, there must be lots of former farmhouses which would presumably still have septic tanks and wells in the area.
The GNR and other rescue services were looking for a child who was still alive or who may have died accidentally (i.e., not murdered with concealment of a body). I presume that a manhole lid or a protection on a well that would have been too heavy for a child to lift would not have attracted much attention at that stage. One that had been open, but replaced the next morning may be a different issue.
Harrison did suggest searching the crèche area and open land to the east of PdL with enhanced methods, but this does not seem to have taken place.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: John on October 02, 2014, 08:48:28 PM
I think the open shutter and window was enough to prevent any extensive search of the underground drainage system which by all accounts is pretty extensive in Luz. Whether that was the right thing to do is questionable but then we have the benefit of hindsight now.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on October 02, 2014, 09:19:14 PM
I hope police have located the exact inspection cover which the witness states was off. To determine service type and possibly pipe diameter. Possibly irrelevant but needs to be checked to rule it out It would be possible if a person was rushing in the dark, to fall down.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: John on October 10, 2014, 05:23:11 PM
I hope police have located the exact inspection cover which the witness states was off. To determine service type and possibly pipe diameter. Possibly irrelevant but needs to be checked to rule it out It would be possible if a person was rushing in the dark, to fall down.
Absolutely and then disappear under the town never to emerge on the beach.
As far as the opening post and the theme of this thread is concerned, I have never believed a failed burglary was ever a serious contender as a reason for an abduction in this case. Fact is, burglars steal property, not children.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Alice Purjorick on October 10, 2014, 06:34:15 PM
Absolutely and then disappear under the town never to emerge on the beach.
As far as the opening post and the theme of this thread is concerned, I have never believed a failed burglary was ever a serious contender as a reason for an abduction in this case. Fact is, burglars steal property, not children.
True and the "Manual of Burglar Tactics" says stay out of kids rooms because there is rarely anything of value in there!
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on October 10, 2014, 08:54:53 PM
Absolutely and then disappear under the town never to emerge on the beach.
As far as the opening post and the theme of this thread is concerned, I have never believed a failed burglary was ever a serious contender as a reason for an abduction in this case. Fact is, burglars steal property, not children.
But might not a failed burglary increase risk of accident?
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on October 10, 2014, 09:06:55 PM
As I mentioned before, there was an earlier burglary of another nearby apartment which is ground floor and importantly is identical in layout of rooms, window positions, door positions, and the sloping ground whch makes the 3 side windows too high above the ground to reach.
So at this other apartment, and exactly the same at 5A, the burglar cannot choose freely from the 4 windows, because 3 are ruled out by being too high above the sloping ground, he is limited in choice strictly to the one and only north window, the one which is reachable from the ground.
Just to make it clear, this is not 5G and it is not 5L, it is another one very nearby, ground floor.
IMO if that earlier burglary were investigated it seems likely to be found that entry was probably through the one and only window accessible from the ground (the exact equivalent same window as entry was IMO attempted into at 5A but inevitably disturbed before actual entry).
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: John on October 11, 2014, 04:50:04 AM
Burglars must not be confused with sneak thief's. The latter are opportunists and will take such opportunities which present to them such as an open door or unlocked window. They normally keep well clear of any property which might be occupied. The burglar on the other hand will seek out a target days or even weeks ahead and do some ground work before attempting to enter. The burglar is only interested in small high value items which are easily disposed of. They will not normally risk entry to a property which is occupied or has children within. There are of course always exceptions to any rule.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on October 11, 2014, 09:22:00 AM
Burglars must not be confused with sneak thief's. The latter are opportunists and will take such opportunities which present to them such as an open door or unlocked window. They normally keep well clear of any property which might be occupied. The burglar on the other hand will seek out a target days or even weeks ahead and do some ground work before attempting to enter. The burglar is only interested in small high value items which are easily disposed of. They will not normally risk entry to a property which is occupied or has children within. There are of course always exceptions to any rule.
I think the tactic was - wait til dark when many tourists are out for a meal. Go along the north side of building (invisible from tapas) testing the one accessible window of every apartment that looks like no-one is in (yes 5A looked like no-one was in). The test is quick - takes only a few seconds - lift the shutter a few inches and with other hand try to slide window open. If it doesn't open - no problem - gently let the shutter back down - no trace left - move on and test next apartment's window.
5A and the other identical groundfloor apartment (successful burglary) both had exactly one accessible window each, invisible from tapas area, on the north side, as did 5L (successful burglary) and 5G (disturbed burglary) even though they are upstairs, and we even know that the window was opened at both 5G and 5A.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: John on October 12, 2014, 01:24:16 AM
Thing is though, why take a chance with an apartment which is seen on all three sides and so close to the activities when there were hundreds of other one far away from prying eyes?
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Alice Purjorick on October 12, 2014, 10:57:28 AM
Thing is though, why take a chance with an apartment which is seen on all three sides and so close to the activities when there were hundreds of other one far away from prying eyes?
It was an inexperienced burglar let out on his own for the first time? No sensei and not having read his Manual of Burglary Tactics properly?. The trouble is most posters do not realise that burglary is a "living" and about 90 odd percent remain undetected. That is because the burglars do not take unnecessary risks. Busting in to a place on a lit road junction ain't exactly the smoothest of burglary moves. Any way sir I bow to your superior knowledge of the subject.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Eleanor on October 12, 2014, 12:18:36 PM
I still think Madeleine was targeted as a child for sale, hopefully to a family.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on October 12, 2014, 12:53:29 PM
I still think Madeleine was targeted as a child for sale, hopefully to a family.
......By an abductor who had a key to the front door, & who hung around in the apartment moving the door back & forth & opened the window & shutters for some reason, before making off on foot.
Genius.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Miss Taken Identity on October 12, 2014, 01:13:59 PM
It was an inexperienced burglar let out on his own for the first time? No sensei and not having read his Manual of Burglary Tactics properly?. The trouble is most posters do not realise that burglary is a "living" and about 90 odd percent remain undetected. That is because the burglars do not take unnecessary risks. Busting in to a place on a lit road junction ain't exactly the smoothest of burglary moves. Any way sir I bow to your superior knowledge of the subject.
Shame on you ALICE, omitting the other fact: THE CHILDREN WERE BEING CHECKED every half hour. Boy they took a grave chance of being caught.
And what about that close shave by Gerry? He 'felt someone was in the apartment'...but he left them all alone anyway without checking. lucky buggars...oops sorry typo - meant Burglars.
I loved that 'cover story' she was taken by a childless couple who will look after her' Oh I did want that to be true... but it deflected from the reality of the situation. The hard core fact- that sonething very sinister had taken place and they didn't want to talk about that.
..And to be very fair, I can understand that- no one wants to visit places in their heads which make them feel uncomfortable.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pathfinder73 on October 12, 2014, 01:19:32 PM
I think the tactic was - wait til dark when many tourists are out for a meal. Go along the north side of building (invisible from tapas) testing the one accessible window of every apartment that looks like no-one is in (yes 5A looked like no-one was in). The test is quick - takes only a few seconds - lift the shutter a few inches and with other hand try to slide window open. If it doesn't open - no problem - gently let the shutter back down - no trace left - move on and test next apartment's window.
5A and the other identical groundfloor apartment (successful burglary) both had exactly one accessible window each, invisible from tapas area, on the north side, as did 5L (successful burglary) and 5G (disturbed burglary) even though they are upstairs, and we even know that the window was opened at both 5G and 5A.
People started arriving at the tapas bar at various times from 8:35 to 9pm walking past that apartment. Matt went to check, then Gerry talking to Jez outside it then Jane etc.. If that apartment was being watched do you think they would try with all the people going past it? Anybody would be crazy to try. Matt didn't notice no window open (no draught nevermind whooshing curtains!) at 9:30. Then Jane leaves at 9:37 passes the apartment. Russell returns at 9:45 passes the apartment and Kate goes to check at 9:51. So when did this abductor/burglar strike? Between Russell and Kate (a 5 minute window of opportunity) because she said a window was open &%+((£
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Alice Purjorick on October 12, 2014, 03:22:27 PM
Yeah well! were I a burglar at holiday resort I would want to knock over the place when I was pretty sure no one would be in. Now when would that be at a holiday resort? try 10:00 to about 1630. Were I an opportunist thief I would hang around the markets and beaches to lift purses, wallets ,cameras and i-phones.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: slartibartfast on October 12, 2014, 03:44:19 PM
People started arriving at the tapas bar at various times from 8:35 to 9pm walking past that apartment. Matt went to check, then Gerry talking to Jez outside it then Jane etc.. If that apartment was being watched do you think they would try with all the people going past it? Anybody would be crazy to try. Matt didn't notice no window open (no draught nevermind whooshing curtains!) at 9:30. Then Jane leaves at 9:37 passes the apartment. Russell returns at 9:45 passes the apartment and Kate goes to check at 9:51. So when did this abductor/burglar strike? Between Russell and Kate (a 5 minute window of opportunity) because she said a window was open &%+((£
Agreed, the timeline and abduction/burglary are fairly mutually exclusive.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on October 16, 2014, 02:16:45 AM
People started arriving at the tapas bar at various times from 8:35 to 9pm walking past that apartment. Matt went to check, then Gerry talking to Jez outside it then Jane etc.. If that apartment was being watched do you think they would try with all the people going past it? Anybody would be crazy to try. Matt didn't notice no window open (no draught nevermind whooshing curtains!) at 9:30. Then Jane leaves at 9:37 passes the apartment. Russell returns at 9:45 passes the apartment and Kate goes to check at 9:51. So when did this abductor/burglar strike? Between Russell and Kate (a 5 minute window of opportunity) because she said a window was open &%+((£
I think you need to start looking out a bit more ... however much you recheck the Tapas timeline ... it won't incriminate anyone there.
How long do you think it takes to enter a ground floor property lift a child and exit?
Particularly if you know the layout of the flat and the sleeping arrangements … for example observation - without the need for inside information - would tell you which bedroom the parents used and which the children you would only need to see which light went on when they retired.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on October 16, 2014, 11:20:27 AM
I think you need to start looking out a bit more ... however much you recheck the Tapas timeline ... it won't incriminate anyone there.
How long do you think it takes to enter a ground floor property lift a child and exit?
Particularly if you know the layout of the flat and the sleeping arrangements … for example observation - without the need for inside information - would tell you which bedroom the parents used and which the children you would only need to see which light went on when they retired.
First you'd need a key to the front door & not forgetting you have to open the window & shutters.
Plus, he'd have had to close & lock the door behind him when he left, whilst holding Maddie, who slept through it all.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: slartibartfast on October 16, 2014, 12:16:35 PM
I think you need to start looking out a bit more ... however much you recheck the Tapas timeline ... it won't incriminate anyone there.
How long do you think it takes to enter a ground floor property lift a child and exit?
Particularly if you know the layout of the flat and the sleeping arrangements … for example observation - without the need for inside information - would tell you which bedroom the parents used and which the children you would only need to see which light went on when they retired.
If you knew the precise times that checks were going to be made, then there was a window of opportunity. But even the T9 didn't plan around exact checking times, so anyone watching out wouldn't attempt anything because of the coming and goings, assuming of course that the checks actually happened.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pathfinder73 on October 16, 2014, 01:06:23 PM
I think you need to start looking out a bit more ... however much you recheck the Tapas timeline ... it won't incriminate anyone there.
How long do you think it takes to enter a ground floor property lift a child and exit?
Particularly if you know the layout of the flat and the sleeping arrangements … for example observation - without the need for inside information - would tell you which bedroom the parents used and which the children you would only need to see which light went on when they retired.
Don't forget allegedly wasting precious time opening a window and raising shutters on the hope that he/she would leave incriminating evidence. A kamikaze abductor @)(++(* And to top it all, the shutters were tampered with. Would you try to destroy potential evidence before the police arrive? Nothing adds up.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A search was also made for possible biological traces and fibres on the single bed from where the minor disappeared, using a variable-wave light source appropriate for the task, the result obtained having been negative.
The area of the pillow of the bed from the minor disappeared was inspected with the intention to detect the presence of some smell [aroma] characteristic of volatile substances typical of chloroform or ether, this search proving negative.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Brietta on October 16, 2014, 04:20:51 PM
Don't forget allegedly wasting precious time opening a window and raising shutters on the hope that he/she would leave incriminating evidence. A kamikaze abductor @)(++(* And to top it all, the shutters were tampered with. Would you try to destroy potential evidence before the police arrive? Nothing adds up.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A search was also made for possible biological traces and fibres on the single bed from where the minor disappeared, using a variable-wave light source appropriate for the task, the result obtained having been negative.
The area of the pillow of the bed from the minor disappeared was inspected with the intention to detect the presence of some smell [aroma] characteristic of volatile substances typical of chloroform or ether, this search proving negative.
Any idea what they did with the bedding after completing their investigation?
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on October 16, 2014, 04:25:35 PM
Any idea what they did with the bedding after completing their investigation?
Didn't the FSS torch them or was that some other beclothes, or, another pesky myth?
I read that here...
'Portuguese detectives identified a stain on Madeleine's bedspread as semen. They sent the sample to the British Forensic Science Service for a second opinion. The British lab claimed the stain was saliva before they destroyed the bedspread along with other important evidence.'
http://fakedabduction.com/
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Eleanor on October 16, 2014, 04:43:20 PM
Didn't the FSS torch them or was that some other beclothes, or, another pesky myth?
I read that here...
'Portuguese detectives identified a stain on Madeleine's bedspread as semen. They sent the sample to the British Forensic Science Service for a second opinion. The British lab claimed the stain was saliva before they destroyed the bedspread along with other important evidence.'
http://fakedabduction.com/
No. It was the bedspread on the other bed. And it was identified as the saliva of a small boy who had previously stayed in the appartment.
Please try to get the few known facts right.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Wonderfulspam on October 16, 2014, 04:46:58 PM
No. It was the bedspread on the other bed. And it was identified as the saliva of a small boy who had previously stayed in the appartment.
Please try to get the few known facts right.
I was asking because I genuinely didn't know .
Sorry!
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on October 19, 2014, 10:41:03 PM
IMO the person who opened the window did not disappear the child. The burglar who opened that window would inevitably, on discovering there was someone in the room, go away completely empty handed before even entering.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: misty on October 19, 2014, 11:27:09 PM
IMO the person who opened the window did not disappear the child. The burglar who opened that window would inevitably, on discovering there was someone in the room, go away completely empty handed before even entering.
The burglar at Mrs Fenn's apartment wasn't deterred by the sound of her TV.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on October 19, 2014, 11:51:33 PM
The burglar at Mrs Fenn's apartment wasn't deterred by the sound of her TV.
The difference between the time at which disturbance of attempted burglary occured in the 5G and 5A cases is:
At 5G there was no-one in the room where he opened the window and shutter therefore the burglary was disturbed after entry.
(If Mrs F had been asleep in that rear bedroom, she would have been woken up by the noise of him opening the shutter, he would have seen her, and it would have been inevitable that the 5G burglary would have been disturbed before entry).
At 5A there was someone in the room where he opened the window and shutter, therefore the burglary was inevitably disturbed before entry.
In neither case did the burglar steal a person.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: misty on October 20, 2014, 12:02:35 AM
The difference between the time at which disturbance of attempted burglary occured in the 5G and 5A cases is:
At 5G there was no-one in the room where he opened the window and shutter therefore the burglary was disturbed after entry.
(If Mrs F had been asleep in that rear bedroom, she would have been woken up by the noise of him opening the shutter, he would have seen her, and it would have been inevitable that the 5G burglary would have been disturbed before entry).
At 5A there was someone in the room where he opened the window and shutter, therefore the burglary was inevitably disturbed before entry.
In neither case did the burglar steal a person.
Even if the burglar was disturbed by the sound of Madeleine crying/shouting when she was awoken by the shutter noise, it doesn't explain what happened to her after that. Two intruders in less than half an hour and a child who vanishes without trace?
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on October 20, 2014, 12:18:28 AM
Even if the burglar was disturbed by the sound of Madeleine crying/shouting when she was awoken by the shutter noise, it doesn't explain what happened to her after that. Two intruders in less than half an hour and a child who vanishes without trace?
It directly explains the very first part of what happened after that. True, it doesn't directly explain the disappearance though.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: misty on October 20, 2014, 12:31:07 AM
It directly explains the very first part of what happened after that. True, it doesn't directly explain the disappearance though.
Of all the witnesses who were present that night, what was the one question not put to the receptionist by the PJ yet asked to most other people? http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/HELDER_LUIS.htm
You don't need to reply - I'm sure you'll get it.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on October 20, 2014, 12:36:50 AM
Of all the witnesses who were present that night, what was the one question not put to the receptionist by the PJ yet asked to most other people? http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/HELDER_LUIS.htm
You don't need to reply - I'm sure you'll get it.
I don't know.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: misty on October 20, 2014, 12:45:43 AM
I did and the one thing I learn is that their interior search was incomplete.
The receptionist wasn't involved in the GNR work.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on October 20, 2014, 11:05:33 PM
In 99.9% of cases of an illicitly opened window, the explanation is either burglary or attempted burglary. And in all of those cases, if the burglar outside were to discover to his shock that there is someone woken up in the actual room he was about to climb into, he will flee empty handed before he even climbs in. There is nothing unlikely about this explanation for the open window. The only thing one might argue is highly unlikely about it, is that there was someone in the room, when it looked like everyone was out. But in this case, that was indeed the scenario.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Angelo222 on October 24, 2014, 01:18:20 AM
First you'd need a key to the front door & not forgetting you have to open the window & shutters.
Plus, he'd have had to close & lock the door behind him when he left, whilst holding Maddie, who slept through it all.
Getting a key to the front door was easy and closing the door behind him as he left was easier still as the door had a self locking chub type snib fitted.
We have the answers given to us in the statements but seldom do we have the questions asked.
This is one reason why I think it's a waste of time and energy to go into the minutia of summarised statements . They do not give the full picture, IIRC it was Russell who was given a hard time during his interview - Gerry heard him shouting and crying. But AFAIK all that is omitted from the 'official' summary of that interview.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pathfinder73 on October 24, 2014, 01:32:47 AM
Getting a key to the front door was easy and closing the door behind him as he left was easier still as the door had a self locking chub type snib fitted.
Shame the open window killed that sensible key to quickly enter and exit theory. Whoever opened the window did more harm than good. Bad karma. The probability that a burglar turned up minutes after an abductor (both not seen nor any evidence) is stretching the realms of possibilities hey Pegasus?
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on October 24, 2014, 01:35:18 AM
Getting a key to the front door was easy and closing the door behind him as he left was easier still as the door had a self locking chub type snib fitted.
In 99.9% of illicit entries the intruder arrives with no key. Yes there are many cases of the intruder using a key - but they are all where the intruder found the key under the doormat or in some pot-like object just outside the door. For example burgling the group's apartment on the next floor up in the daytimes that week would have been easy as pie.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Brietta on October 24, 2014, 01:51:26 AM
In 99.9% of illicit entries the intruder arrives with no key. Yes there are many cases of the intruder using a key - but they are all where the intruder found the key under the doormat or in some pot-like object just outside the door. For example burgling the group's apartment on the next floor up in the daytimes that week would have been easy as pie.
What does not seem to have been reported to the PJ at the time is that the bunch of keys for Block five were missing.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on October 24, 2014, 01:54:18 AM
... The probability that a burglar turned up minutes after an abductor (both not seen nor any evidence) is stretching the realms of possibilities hey Pegasus?
I claimed only that a small-time burglar turned up, no-one else. He opened the window and shutter from outside intending to enter and burgle, but did not enter because he was disturbed. No other stranger turned up, there was no intruder in that apartment IMO.
BTW do you agree 2314 is a short time after GNR arrive at the actual apartment (this is after their initial visit to 24hr reception)
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: misty on October 24, 2014, 01:59:47 AM
What does not seem to have been reported to the PJ at the time is that the bunch of keys for Block five were missing.
Yes the press report that a bunch of keys were lost is credible and correct IMO. But there is no evidence that those lost keys were acquired by any burglar. They were probably dropped under a truck seat or somewhere like that. The open window and shutter indicate that the initiated but disturbed attempt at entry was at the window using Heribertos easy technique and therefore that the person who did that had no key.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on October 24, 2014, 02:20:41 AM
Same source says duplicates were obtained from reception.
Correct.
If a staff member wished to provide keys for a burglar, he would lend the keys to the burglar for an hour which is plenty of time to get copies made. What he would not do is give the keys to the burglar and say 'don't bother making copies just keep them as I am feeling stupid today so I will report them as lost to reception so that I am incriminating myself for the burglaries you do with them' Also the 2007 burglaries of 5L and 5G and the one in block 4 were I believe before these keys were lost.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Brietta on October 24, 2014, 02:27:28 AM
Yes the press report that a bunch of keys were lost is credible and correct IMO. But there is no evidence that those lost keys were acquired by any burglar. They were probably dropped under a truck seat or somewhere like that. The open window and shutter indicate that the initiated but disturbed attempt at entry was at the window using Heribertos easy technique and therefore that the person who did that had no key.
Heri's demonstration showed how easily entry could be made through the window ... but he thought it possible Madeleine may have approached the window and was lifted through.
I am sorry to disagree with you and Heri ... but I think entry and exit was via the front door.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Brietta on October 24, 2014, 02:32:29 AM
If a staff member wished to provide keys for a burglar, he would lend the keys to the burglar for an hour which is plenty of time to get copies made. What he would not do is give the keys to the burglar and say 'don't bother making copies just keep them as I am feeling stupid today so I will report them as lost to reception so that I am incriminating myself for the burglaries you do with them' Also the 2007 burglaries of 5L and 5G and the one in block 4 were I believe before these keys were lost.
Exactly.
It doesn't make sense that the whole bunch disappeared for illicit purposes.
If the keys were being copied it could be done very quickly, even one at a time. But it is something that the PJ should have been made aware of at the time.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: misty on October 24, 2014, 02:33:29 AM
Yes the press report that a bunch of keys were lost is credible and correct IMO. But there is no evidence that those lost keys were acquired by any burglar. They were probably dropped under a truck seat or somewhere like that. The open window and shutter indicate that the initiated but disturbed attempt at entry was at the window using Heribertos easy technique and therefore that the person who did that had no key.
The report said that the worker kept secret the loss of the keys. Surely the PJ would have enquired with local locksmiths about duplicates of keys being cut - & keys like 5a's wouldn't come cheap. Of course, if the abductor went in the patio door & out the front door, he wouldn't have needed a key anyway.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on October 24, 2014, 02:55:30 AM
The report said that the worker kept secret the loss of the keys. Surely the PJ would have enquired with local locksmiths about duplicates of keys being cut - & keys like 5a's wouldn't come cheap. Of course, if the abductor went in the patio door & out the front door, he wouldn't have needed a key anyway.
The paper got the story by tracing and speaking to employee BS, and then tracing and doorstepping employee TS. It was TS who lost the keys, he told BS, and must have told some other employee at reception/management in order to get replacements. None of those 3 mentioned this in the statements we see in the files. I think the paper would certainly have passed this information to SY and its likely they will have asked PJ to check it out.
Obviously needs checking, however IMO the evidence indicates burglary disturbed at window and no use of any key.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: sadie on October 24, 2014, 12:47:31 PM
The report said that the worker kept secret the loss of the keys. Surely the PJ would have enquired with local locksmiths about duplicates of keys being cut - & keys like 5a's wouldn't come cheap. Of course, if the abductor went in the patio door & out the front door, he wouldn't have needed a key anyway.
The keys to 5A look like simple castings to me.
Any idiot with a modicom of engineering skills, a sand box, the correct sand for moulding and a nearby furnace could make one for peanuts, and in minutes. They would need a file, or grinding wheel for fettling too.
http://foundry101.com/
As part of my engineering training I worked in a foundry producing steel castings, making the moulds and pouring the red /white hot molten metal. Sparks flying everywhere and hard sweaty work, but very satisfying.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Alice Purjorick on October 24, 2014, 04:56:01 PM
Well just remove the key from the rack in reception rub it on your upper lip to grease it, make an impression of it in a tin of plasticine you just happen to have in your shirt pocket. Mix up some plaster of paris (or wax) to make a core using the plasticine impression. Find some timber and tools with which to make the mould frame in which to put the moulding sand, a bag of which no self respecting burglar would be seen abroad without. Find some metal not ductile or brittle then use the small electric furnace you have in the boot of your car to melt the metal pour it into the mould not forgettin g to warm up the mould first, let it cool strike the mould fettle the key then take the key to door to make sure it works; then carry out the abduction? Simple really! But as my granny used to say about killing cats!!
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: sadie on October 24, 2014, 09:28:06 PM
Well just remove the key from the rack in reception rub it on your upper lip to grease it, make an impression of it in a tin of plasticine you just happen to have in your shirt pocket. Mix up some plaster of paris (or wax) to make a core using the plasticine impression. Find some timber and tools with which to make the mould frame in which to put the moulding sand, a bag of which no self respecting burglar would be seen abroad without. Find some metal not ductile or brittle then use the small electric furnace you have in the boot of your car to melt the metal pour it into the mould not forgettin g to warm up the mould first, let it cool strike the mould fettle the key then take the key to door to make sure it works; then carry out the abduction? Simple really! But as my granny used to say about killing cats!!
Oh, do you really think they made the spare key oin the spot? ReallY ?
I think they made it elsewhere.
Easy peasy for someone used to making toy soldiers or even more so for someone working in a foundry. You can even buy simple metal casting kits on the internet ... but they would need a good heat source Alice.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on October 24, 2014, 09:40:09 PM
Heri's demonstration showed how easily entry could be made through the window ... but he thought it possible Madeleine may have approached the window and was lifted through.
I am sorry to disagree with you and Heri ... but I think entry and exit was via the front door.
Heri's video demonstration of the 3-stage window opening method is brilliant. His seperate hypothesis that the child walks towards the window is incorrect as it reverses the natural instinct to move away from danger. The child would certainly have moved away from the danger into another room.
If children ran towards danger it would make the game of monster (described in the files) an absolutely pointless non-starter wouldn't it?
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on October 24, 2014, 09:47:30 PM
@Brietta Our two theories are different but seem to agree on several very important points one of which is: A stranger opened the window and shutter but did not climb in or out of it. In your theory what is the reason why your stranger opens the window and shutter?
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pathfinder73 on October 24, 2014, 09:54:33 PM
For that theory to have worked the window would have to be unlocked because it wasn't forced. Experts concluded from the thumb prints it was opened from the inside but what do they know? Dianne tried to raise them from the outside and couldn't lift them. Those shutters were tampered with straight away like they thought they were running the investigation and not the police. If an intruder touched them then why the hell was Kate getting Dianne and others to tamper with them? That doesn't look good.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on October 24, 2014, 10:19:29 PM
... Experts concluded from the thumb prints it was opened from the inside ...
Are you referring to Mr Amaral's film? Yes an skilled expert in that film does conclude that the window was slid open from the inside. However that expert is mistaken. Remember he did not lift the prints himself, he was working from forensic photos of 4th May. Please feel free to post the stillframe from the film, which shows the forensic "dragons blood" photo of the print which supposedly proves the window was opened from the inside.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Brietta on October 24, 2014, 10:27:20 PM
Heri's video demonstration of the 3-stage window opening method is brilliant. His seperate hypothesis that the child walks towards the window is incorrect as it reverses the natural instinct to move away from danger. The child would certainly have moved away from the danger into another room.
If children ran towards danger it would make the game of monster (described in the files) an absolutely pointless non-starter wouldn't it?
I know you put a great deal of thought into your posts using the little evidence we have to build a workable hypothesis.
I tremble a little if I digress from Heri’s meticulous research all of which I agree is brilliant.
I think the abduction was planned.
I base this opinion on the known witness statements describing men observing apartment 5a. Too many to be discarded.
I also think the balcony where the cigarette butts were found might well have been used as an observation post … Heri has posted photographs which show the panoramic view of the crime scene from that position.
I think the timing of phone pings were communications relaying information about the family’s movements.
Consider this, please.
Abductor enters apartment via the sliding patio door (or front door) immediately Dr McCann leaves having made his check.
In seconds s/he is in child bedroom; ensures window is unlocked, may open it, may raise the shutter … but it is likely an accomplice may do that from outside while inside, Madeleine is sedated.
The abductor lifts Madeleine from her bed, crosses the room and passes her to accomplice who makes good the escape either to nearby accommodation but more likely to a vehicle.
Abductor makes quick visual check to ensure s/he has left no forensic trace and exits via a door unencumbered by the burden of the child and makes good a separate escape.
It is all down to planning and precision; perhaps the original plan included lowering the blind and closing and locking the window. That would have delayed discovery, and Madeleine might not have been missed till the morning giving them a bigger window for escape.
However the suspicion and confusion engendered by the open window leading to the "staged abduction theory" must have left them delerious with joy when the spotlight was focused on Madeleine's parents and not them.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Miss Taken Identity on October 24, 2014, 10:42:22 PM
I just wonder how much these portable foundries cost in PDL.
soldering, melting metal?...I thought I was reading a script from Columbo.
Did we not all agree that the doors were left open-unlocked?. Why open shutters- deploy a one man steel works service to make a key( that's all you see driving around PDL) Key making burglars!
If the place was being cased, why break in to a flat where it is being monitored constantly? and the children had the habit of waking up during the night!
Now a more logical approach.... who checked the chimney?
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on October 24, 2014, 10:45:27 PM
@Brietta Ah so your reason for the window being opened is so that one person can pass a child out of the window to another person. I think it was opened from outside by a person who intended to climb in through it but was disturbed before he did.
At least we do both agree on this important point - that the scene described by KM - the bedroom to lounge door more open, the window open, the shutter open, the toy on bed, is completely truthful.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on October 24, 2014, 11:14:47 PM
An american child is home alone on his bed when he sees shadows on his bedroom window and hears noises outside - someone outside trying to gain entry through his bedroom window. Does he assume it must be one of his parents, and stand as close to the window as possible so they can lift him out? Or does he exit his bedroom fast and go into the parents bedroom and hide behind clothes inside a closet? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uTRHr0jkqVM
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: sadie on October 25, 2014, 12:16:33 AM
I just wonder how much these portable foundries cost in PDL.
soldering, melting metal?...I thought I was reading a script from Columbo
Did we not all agree that the doors were left open-unlocked?. Why open shutters- deploy a one man steel works service to make a key( that's all you see driving around PDL) Key making burglars!If the place was being cased, why break in to a flat where it is being monitored constantly? and the children had the habit of waking up during the night!
Now a more logical approach.... who checked the chimney?
Did we not all agree that the doors were left open-unlocked?.
No we did not agree anything of the sort.
The front door wes locked but not double locked. It required a key to open it.
deploy a one man steel works service to make a key( that's all you see driving around PDL) Key making burglars!
As a kid, the boys in my neighbourhood were constantly casting tiny toy soldiers and planes etc. There was little sophistication in the toys then, no money about ... and everyone learned simple crafts. Some painted them and made a little business selling them on.
My thinking is that as PT is allegedly a poor economy, the kids there would be rather like the kids when I was young, using basic creative crafts to fill their time and enjoy themselves
Starter kits can be bought new for as little as £20 on the internet.
To remind you, several apartments were burgled, with entrance seemingly thru a previously locked front door. Where did the keys come from?
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pathfinder73 on October 25, 2014, 12:29:17 AM
Are you referring to Mr Amaral's film? Yes an skilled expert in that film does conclude that the window was slid open from the inside. However that expert is mistaken. Remember he did not lift the prints himself, he was working from forensic photos of 4th May. Please feel free to post the stillframe from the film, which shows the forensic "dragons blood" photo of the print which supposedly proves the window was opened from the inside.
No Channel 4 Dispatches experts about the shutter thumb prints being raised from the inside. They shouldn't have been tampering with the crime scene. Why would you try and destroy important evidence? You would say don't touch that it could hold vital clues not have a look at the shutters for me. What the Hell!
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pathfinder73 on October 25, 2014, 01:07:39 AM
The noisy front key door
7:02
p.s. I've never seen Gerry looking so nervous when Matt is doing his reconstruction check.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: sadie on October 25, 2014, 01:15:09 AM
Gerry says they used the patio door because the front door was noisy and could wake the kids. Haven't you watched it? Strange the front door key was used before his proud father moment and desperate to use the loo.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on October 25, 2014, 03:46:49 AM
No Channel 4 Dispatches experts about the shutter thumb prints being raised from the inside. They shouldn't have been tampering with the crime scene. Why would you try and destroy important evidence? You would say don't touch that it could hold vital clues not have a look at the shutters for me. What the Hell!
Prints on the shutter showing the shutter had been manually raised from inside? That does not make sense. Someone who is inside can simply use the strap to raise the shutter.
So now back to the window. Where is the print on the window which supposedly shows KM opened the window? It can't be her 5 prints on the glass. Do you agree with me that she did not open the window?
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: slartibartfast on October 25, 2014, 08:30:10 AM
Did we not all agree that the doors were left open-unlocked?.
No we did not agree anything of the sort.
The front door wes locked but not double locked. It required a key to open it.
deploy a one man steel works service to make a key( that's all you see driving around PDL) Key making burglars!
As a kid, the boys in my neighbourhood were constantly casting tiny toy soldiers and planes etc. There was little sophistication in the toys then, no money about ... and everyone learned simple crafts. Some painted them and made a little business selling them on.
My thinking is that as PT is allegedly a poor economy, the kids there would be rather like the kids when I was young, using basic creative crafts to fill their time and enjoy themselves
Starter kits can be bought new for as little as £20 on the internet.
To remind you, several apartments were burgled, with entrance seemingly thru a previously locked front door. Where did the keys come from?
Trouble is lead is not good for making keys...
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pathfinder73 on October 25, 2014, 10:11:21 AM
Prints on the shutter showing the shutter had been manually raised from inside? That does not make sense. Someone who is inside can simply use the strap to raise the shutter.
So now back to the window. Where is the print on the window which supposedly shows KM opened the window? It can't be her 5 prints on the glass. Do you agree with me that she did not open the window?
Do you wanna know why Gerry and Matt both found the door half-open i.e. in the same position? Because it was meant to be Kate's check at 9:30 not Matt's. Have you ever seen him looking so nervous when Matt is doing his reconstruction? This is when he reveals that it was his first visual check of the week i.e. that proud father moment and he claims minutes later she was taken. The truth is always there. It's about uncovering it.
p.s. what if you are trying to break the shutters?
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Brietta on October 25, 2014, 10:14:37 AM
How much simpler it would have been to force the lock on the front door, or to have left the patio door slightly ajar to be ‘discovered’ on return.
That would have seamlessly fitted the narrative had there been a tale to be concocted.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: Alice Purjorick on October 25, 2014, 11:37:08 AM
Oh, do you really think they made the spare key oin the spot? ReallY ?
I think they made it elsewhere.
Easy peasy for someone used to making toy soldiers or even more so for someone working in a foundry. You can even buy simple metal casting kits on the internet ... but they would need a good heat source Alice.
Yeah giving about 1600 degrees Celsius to melt a lump of steel to make a key from. And just to pick you up on an earlier point red hot steel only flows when whacked with a forging hammer it cannot be poured. Off topic of course and just for Alfie @)(++(* @)(++(* @)(++(* @)(++(* @)(++(* @)(++(* @)(++(* @)(++(* @)(++(* @)(++(* But Alfie old son my facts are right 8((()*/
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: sadie on October 25, 2014, 02:50:45 PM
Yeah giving about 1600 degrees Celsius to melt a lump of steel to make a key from. And just to pick you up on an earlier point red hot steel only flows when whacked with a forging hammer it cannot be poured. Off topic of course and just for Alfie @)(++(* @)(++(* @)(++(* @)(++(* @)(++(* @)(++(* @)(++(* @)(++(* @)(++(* @)(++(* But Alfie old son my facts are right 8((()*/
I think I said red/white hot. Steel pours at that temperature, but it has to be handled with great care.
Other metals with a lower melting point might do the job.
Am not sure if Aluminium would be robust enough. but with a suitable additive making it an alloy such a metal could do the job
A forging could be used too. Then the metal blank would have to be heated to red hot. However this would be a more complex operation, making a suitably shaped hefty stamping mold first.
Dont think that method would be sensible for one offs. Casting is a much more direct and simple operation. Easier acheived.
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on October 25, 2014, 03:49:02 PM
There are press reports available of many thousands of burglaries. Try making a list of burglaries of residences or holiday residences, which involved a previously stolen key (doormat/bucketbydoor keys excluded), or a lost key, or a key misused by staff. Before you start, stock up with lots of A4 pads and plenty of biros to record the hundreds of examples you will find ;) Actually can anyone quote even a single case?
Title: Re: Was Madeleine's disappearance the result of a burglary gone wrong?
Post by: pegasus on December 02, 2014, 11:20:10 PM
"British detectives reckon the burglaries – believed to be carried out by a lone intruder between 2004 and 2010 – could be the key to finally solving what happened to her". http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/madeleine-mccann-cops-quiz-british-4736648
Yes it is likely to be a lone burglar who opened the window. Not some imaginary gang of 7. Mrs F disturbed one lone burglar at her apartment, not a gang of 7