Mark Williams-Thomas suggests Madeleine woke, wandered and was abducted.

[Alfred R Jones]

OR ABDUCTION from the apartment.

What are you talking about?  I thought the 'A' word bored you so much and here you are bringing it up again!!

[Mr Gray]

anyone who is prepared to give the "Woke and Wandered" theory any credence obviously has as much faith in the dog alerts as I have...

So MWT has little faith in the alerts

[G-Unit]

What else did MWT say?

I don't believe a paedophile was watching the apartment nor do I believe an offender entered the apartment - this would be too high-risk.

I believe the so-called sightings in other countries, although genuinely intended, are a distraction and prove to be of little value after the initial two weeks. Who is going to openly walk out with the most wanted child in the world?

While trafficking of children is a far greater problem than is acknowledged, Madeleine does not fit the profile.

So one or more of the parents did have the opportunity - but what would be the motive? Could it have been an accident or a deliberate act?
http://news.sky.com/story/599836/madeleine-my-theories-on-missing-girl

[pegasus]

According to 'locals', as reported in Sept 2007, Madeleine ran away at bedtime one evening. Gerald's 10th May statement was somewhat different.

In a further twist, locals now claim that Madeleine did not always settle well. One evening they allege she ran away into the paths between the apartments, hiding for half an hour when it was time for bed.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-474656/Madeleine-missing-hour-did-McCanns-check-children.html

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-474656/Madeleine-missing-hour-did-McCanns-check-children.html#ixzz3nDEUiM00
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That, between Monday and Wednesday, not knowing the precise date, when they left the residence by the main door, to place the children in the respective creches, MADELEINE left [went] running to the left to the extreme opposite of the residential blocks where they were lodged, playing with the twins. That they had gone down to the furthest point away from those blocks, not knowing exactly how, the three children got into the gardens at the rear [of the blocks]. Then they followed the inside corridor [pathway] at the rear, next to the hedges [fences] up to the street that led to the secondary reception.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/GERRY-MCCANN-10MAY.htm

Maybe the Mail report is just a highly distorted account, at wrong time of day, of the real event in the statement?
"to place the children in the respective creches" means it happened one day at either about 9AM or at about 2PM.
If it was any big length of time it would mean late arrival at two creches, either at start of morning or after lunch, and I don't think the records show that.
 

[pegasus]

A child run over at night might leave no trace since not every pedestrian related RTA results in blood loss.  A motorist could lift her intending to seek help but then find she is deceased so panics and puts her in his car.  That then becomes an abduction of a deceased child.

There are many RTAs where a motorist leaves the scene, especially if drunk, but it is extremely rare to remove a victim.

[pegasus]

So MWT has little faith in the alerts

"I believe what happened on May 3 was that Madeleine woke up, cried for a short while, realised her parents weren't in the apartment as they had not come in to settle her, so she climbed out of bed and walked around the apartment. She found the back patio door was insecure and partly open so she walked out, went down the small flight of steps and out of the gate, turning right down towards the entrance to the resort and the Tapas bar. It was at this point that she was most likely abducted"
http://news.sky.com/story/599836/madeleine-my-theories-on-missing-girl

Writing in May 2008 MWT obviously was aware of the UK dogs, and by giving no mention of them in his theory, (nor anywhere in the article !), it is obvious IMO that he treated them as meaningless. Do you think his theory is any possibility of being partly correct Dave?

[G-Unit]

"I believe what happened on May 3 was that Madeleine woke up, cried for a short while, realised her parents weren't in the apartment as they had not come in to settle her, so she climbed out of bed and walked around the apartment. She found the back patio door was insecure and partly open so she walked out, went down the small flight of steps and out of the gate, turning right down towards the entrance to the resort and the Tapas bar. It was at this point that she was most likely abducted"
http://news.sky.com/story/599836/madeleine-my-theories-on-missing-girl

Writing in May 2008 MWT obviously was aware of the UK dogs, and by giving no mention of them in his theory, (nor anywhere in the article !), it is obvious IMO that he treated them as meaningless. Do you think his theory is any possibility of being partly correct Dave?

He also completely ignored the open window/shutters story. In fact he states that no-one entered the apartment in his opinion- too high risk. If it was too high risk to enter the apartment that suggests it would have been too high risk to open shutters from outside. His lack of explanation for the open window and shutters suggests to me an incomplete ill thought-out theory. 

[pegasus]

Highly recommended video of O'C's theory - watch the whole thing - lots of interesting deductions.
This man is an expert, former scotland yard, he thinks clearly and sensibly.
He dismisses the "organised international abduction gang entering apartment" theory as media fantasy, and proposes a simple woke and wandered then opportunist abducted theory which is far less fantasy-like.
http://www.justpamalam.co.uk/Sky/oconnor_120507_1650.flv
(This video is no longer at the original news site and we can only watch it now because someone had the foresight to preserve it. If anyone here the ability it might be good to make a back up copy).
 

[pegasus]

He also completely ignored the open window/shutters story. In fact he states that no-one entered the apartment in his opinion- too high risk. If it was too high risk to enter the apartment that suggests it would have been too high risk to open shutters from outside. His lack of explanation for the open window and shutters suggests to me an incomplete ill thought-out theory.

Yes it is incomplete in 3 ways because it does not explain the open window and shutter, it does not explain the shoes, and it does not explain any strong reason for leaving the apartment.

All three problems are solved by one simple improvement to the MWT theory. A burglar opened the window and shutter but fled as soon as he/she realised there was someone in the apartment. With that simple improvement, instantly the window and shutter are explained, the shoes are explained, and a strong reason for leaving the apartment is explained. Three holes in MWT theory are fixed by one elementary deduction.

[ShiningInLuz]

There is a path going diagonally from Rua FGDMartins to supermarket carpark, is that downhill?

And another question, is driving OTL more common there than in UK?

The path I think is near horizontal.  The drop in height on the west side of Baptista is mainly taken care of by a long ramp from the front door of Baptista to the car park that is BEYOND the Baptista car park. 

However, to be certain, I will add this little trek to a list of places not covered well by Google that I intend to get around to photographing when the weather gets a little cooler.

OTL.  In Luz, there are a number of ex-pats who combine cheap alcohol, a lack of permanent police presence in town, and a realisation that the main check points are easily avoided.  If my understanding is correct, it is not normal to lose one's licence for drunk driving, nor is there a totting-up procedure, merely a fine.

Presumably at some point, e.g. injuring someone, this spills over into a more serious charge.

However, the previous occupant of the villa we are in had a reputation for driving drunk and causing dame to property.  All she ever got, it appears, was a fine.

[pegasus]

The path I think is near horizontal.  The drop in height on the west side of Baptista is mainly taken care of by a long ramp from the front door of Baptista to the car park that is BEYOND the Baptista car park. 

However, to be certain, I will add this little trek to a list of places not covered well by Google that I intend to get around to photographing when the weather gets a little cooler....(snip)

Thanks. Someone walking south along westside pavement of Rua Martins can (1) fork right onto the diagonal path to supermarket carpark, or can (2) cross Rua Martins to eastside pavement (because westside pavement soon ends) and continue to the junction at the lower end of Rua Martins. Which way would instinctively be chosen?
Also if someone goes on the second option and is now walking down eastside pavement and arrives at that road junction at southeast corner of supermarket, which road is more downhill - fork left or turn right?

[ShiningInLuz]

Not sure if someone has beaten me to the punch, here, but in summary, Collins favours woke, wandered and snatched by a paedophile.

Collins' book was written well before the files were released and he relates one, apparent, incident I can find no reference to anywhere else where Gerry is supposed to have chased Madeleine and caught up with her in someone's garden (if I recall correctly).

No clue where Collins got that from ....

Thank you for the summary, much appreciated.

If the book was written well before the files were released then an obvious danger is that some content would be based on media speculation.

This is Gerry in his statement on 10 May 2007 -
"That, between Monday and Wednesday, not knowing the precise date, when they were leaving the residence through the main door, to place the children in the respective crèches, MADELEINE left running to the left, to the extreme opposite of the residential blocks where they were lodged, playing with the twins. That they walked down next to the most remote end of one of those blocks, not knowing exactly which one, and the three children got into one of the gardens at the back. Then they walked down the inside alley at the back, next to the hedges, up to the street that led to the secondary reception."

The question put to Gerry is not recorded, but it looks like the PJ were trying to ascertain why the dogs had taken the path they did.  Gerry's path does not match the dogs' path.

However, it suggests that by 10th May, there was media speculation on the dogs' path.  It looks like Collins managed to get a more accurate version of what Gerry had said, from whatever source.

[ShiningInLuz]

Thanks. Someone walking south along westside pavement of Rua Martins can (1) fork right onto the diagonal path to supermarket carpark, or can (2) cross Rua Martins to eastside pavement (because westside pavement soon ends) and continue to the junction at the lower end of Rua Martins. Which way would instinctively be chosen?
Also if someone goes on the second option and is now walking down eastside pavement and arrives at that road junction at southeast corner of supermarket, which road is more downhill - fork left or turn right?

The westside pavement is continuous, so the decision tree is somewhat different.

First, I can't see any reason to believe Madeleine was familiar with the path that forks right towards Baptista's front (west) entrance.

It brings into question as to whether she was familiar with Baptista's eastern entrance on Martin's, e.g. being taken there on her way to or from the Mini Club.  Again, I have seen nothing to suggest this.  In any case, Baptista shut at 8 that night, so even if she tried that, there was no way in.

That suggests a path downhill beyond Baptista to the junction there.  Left is downhill again, right is nearly flat until close to the end.  Once again, I have seen nothing to suggest Madeleine was familiar with the route to the right, so it seems unlikely.

The route to the left was one she almost certainly was familiar with.  Before the short cut to the ÒC 24 hour reception was discovered, the obvious route was down Martins, turn left onto Rua Direita and walk to the OC.

I have not seen confirmation of this in the files, but if that was not the route taken initially, I cannot see anything else making sense.

The Mini Club was where Madeleine was taken by her parents, where Madeleine had fun with other children of her own age, where she was looked after by grown-ups, and where her parents would come to get her and take her home.

I am not having any problems per se with the route so far.

[Mr Gray]

"I believe what happened on May 3 was that Madeleine woke up, cried for a short while, realised her parents weren't in the apartment as they had not come in to settle her, so she climbed out of bed and walked around the apartment. She found the back patio door was insecure and partly open so she walked out, went down the small flight of steps and out of the gate, turning right down towards the entrance to the resort and the Tapas bar. It was at this point that she was most likely abducted"
http://news.sky.com/story/599836/madeleine-my-theories-on-missing-girl

Writing in May 2008 MWT obviously was aware of the UK dogs, and by giving no mention of them in his theory, (nor anywhere in the article !), it is obvious IMO that he treated them as meaningless. Do you think his theory is any possibility of being partly correct Dave?

could have been an attempted break in via window...burglar stopped when seeing children inside...Maddie woke and wandered...it's possible...what is just as important is that MWT is prepared to ignore that alerts...that says a lot

[pegasus]

could have been an attempted break in via window...burglar stopped when seeing children inside...Maddie woke and wandered...it's possible...what is just as important is that MWT is prepared to ignore that alerts...that says a lot

Yes ... attempted entry via window...burglar stopped when seeing children inside.
Ten words (so simple that Amaral/Rebelo/Redwood didn't think of them) explain the open window and shutter and give a reason for waking, leaving that room, and possibly even venturing outside. So the MWT and O'C theories become possible.