Author Topic: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?  (Read 156393 times)

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Offline misty

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #330 on: February 14, 2016, 05:54:08 PM »
Fair question.

The next might be why he became increasingly certain in his post-removal spoutings that the male was Gerry.

Why didn't he attempt to get efits done in May 2007?

IMO to ask for efits at any time after the Smith family had made their statements on 26th May to the PJ would be in direct contradiction of the information they provided as witnesses, & would be a criminal offence.

Offline blonk

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #331 on: February 14, 2016, 05:59:23 PM »
Have you worked out why Amaral was so sure that Martin Smith had identified Gerry on that stroll back towards home yet?

Did Amaral get that wrong, do you think?
Yes, I think he got that wrong. I also think he was too ready to accept Catriona Baker's evidence about the 'high tea' on the Thursday at 5.30pm. And IMO he failed to spot that Nuno Lourenco lied about his daughter allegedly nearly being kidnapped in broad daylight right outside a cake shop in Sagres.

Not everyone spoke the truth to him and his men.
 

ferryman

  • Guest
Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #332 on: February 14, 2016, 06:01:42 PM »
IMO to ask for efits at any time after the Smith family had made their statements on 26th May to the PJ would be in direct contradiction of the information they provided as witnesses, & would be a criminal offence.

Particularly efits that detailed must have been produced in accordance with standard protocol for producing e-fits.

Offline pathfinder73

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #333 on: February 14, 2016, 06:24:53 PM »
No it wasn't.
Here's a clue - some people use their first (given) name in their business name.
Kelly is a popular first name in the UK - including Wales.

Under Irish pub

http://www.yelp.com/biz/kellys-luz

Facebook page

Watching the game ... In an Irish pub September 5, 2015

With them kids!!, watching the footy,
I know it's an Irish bar, it's literally full of Irish expats! July 13, 2014

Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

Offline Carana

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #334 on: February 14, 2016, 06:32:14 PM »
IMO to ask for efits at any time after the Smith family had made their statements on 26th May to the PJ would be in direct contradiction of the information they provided as witnesses, & would be a criminal offence.

Not sure what you mean.

To start with, why didn't Amaral's team organise efits when they'd got the Smiths back over in May 2007?

Why didn't Amaral's team organise a reconstruction back in May 2007 when numerous people's movements could have been verified at the same time?

There could have been the T9 doing their checks, the restaurant staff, the Smiths, other off-duty staff, locals, tourists.... all sorts of people.

I do accept that the local PJ was overwhelmed at the time, but I find it a bit sad that they weren't eliminated at the time.

It can't be much fun still seeing your name online nearly 10 years down the line associated with this case, let alone with the type of insinuations that certain quarters attribute to them.

Offline pathfinder73

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #335 on: February 14, 2016, 06:38:24 PM »
Yes, I think he got that wrong. I also think he was too ready to accept Catriona Baker's evidence about the 'high tea' on the Thursday at 5.30pm. And IMO he failed to spot that Nuno Lourenco lied about his daughter allegedly nearly being kidnapped in broad daylight right outside a cake shop in Sagres.

Not everyone spoke the truth to him and his men.

JERONIMO TOMAS RODRIGUES SALCEDAS (Phone No "91 768 ####) - bartender:
- He saw the missing Madeleine, for the last time, yesterday at 16.45h next to the restaurant;

REPORT OF EXTERNAL WORK [Investigation Activity]
Date: 2007/05/04 Location: Praia da Luz
Entity that determined the activity: superiorly determined
Funcionario [employee] that executed it: Miguel P*** and Duarte F****, Inspector

Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

Offline ShiningInLuz

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #336 on: February 14, 2016, 06:42:10 PM »
Under Irish pub

http://www.yelp.com/biz/kellys-luz

Facebook page

Watching the game ... In an Irish pub September 5, 2015

With them kids!!, watching the footy,
I know it's an Irish bar, it's literally full of Irish expats! July 13, 2014
Looks like I have now been adopted by the Irish, as I have been in Kelly's, and I am definitely not Irish.

Oddly enough, I have not noticed an Irish accent, or for that matter a Welsh accent, on any of my few visits.

All sounded English to me.  But my hearing may be going as I get older.

Mind you, if both large screen TVs were showing English football, not Irish football, or Welsh football, maybe that would explain the English accents.  That's typical Kelly's, as I have experienced it.
What's up, old man?

Offline pathfinder73

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #337 on: February 14, 2016, 07:01:38 PM »
Local family may have seen missing Maddy Drogheda Independent

By Angela McCormick
Wednesday June 06 2007

A DROGHEDA family may have been the last people to see abducted four-year-old Madeleine McCann in Portugal.

The family is understood to have seen a child in the arms of a man on the night and at the time Madeleine was taken from her parents' apartments in Praia Da Luz.

They have reported the matter and recently gave statements to the Portuguese police.

The Portuguese police have asked the family not to speak to the press in case they compromise their investigations.

The family declined to give any details to the Drogheda Independent.

Portuguese police are convinced that the child, who vanished during a family holiday in the Algarve on May 3, was abducted.

A number of Drogheda-based families holiday in the nearby Estrela Da Luz apartments, part of a complex built by Drogheda man Gerry Fagan of Oceanico Developments.

'Estrela Da Luz is just around the corner from Praia Da Luz. Loads of Drogheda people go there. It is an absolute paradise,' said Jem O'Neill, a regular visitor.

Gerry McCann requests photos from Irish holidaymakers Gerry's blog (no longer available online)
09 June 2007

Kate and I had a slightly busier day on the media front than expected. We did a short press interview for the Irish Sunday papers, mainly to thank the Irish for their fantastic level of support. We followed that with one for the British Sundays which is likely to be the last one we do for a while. We talked about our pain of not having having Madeleine for such a long time and for our need to grieve, which occurs mainly in private. We also talked about how after Morocco we will have to spend some time reflecting both emotionally, and also how best the campaign can be taken forward. What we want to ensure is that the campaign has a psoitive effect on finding Madeleine.

After this we headed down to Sagres which is the very most southwestern tip of Portugal. There is a very nice beach and we had lunch with the family.

After returning from the beach we did the Irish version of Crimewatch-'Crimecall'. There are a lot of Irish tourists in and around Praia da Luz and although the awareness of Madeleine's disappearance in Ireland is extremely high, we want to ensure that everyone is aware of the appeal and we want the Irish public to come forward with photographs of people who they do not know who were in and around Praia da Luz in the 2 weeks leading up to the 3rd May. The address to upload photographs is: to www.madeleine.ceopupload.com. We have also asked for people to contact their local police if they have seen a man matching the description of the suspect carrying a child seen around the time of Madeleine’s abduction. He is 30-40 years, 1.70-1.80m (5'7"-11"), caucasian and was wearing a dark jacket, beige or mustard coloured trousers with dark shoes. No major news on the investigation front- we still believe it is just a single phone call away.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2016, 07:05:21 PM by pathfinder73 »
Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

Offline pathfinder73

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #338 on: February 14, 2016, 07:19:30 PM »
The website http://www.madeleine.ceopupload.com/ was launched on 21 May. Holiday makers were urged to upload photographs that had people in the background they did not know so that the latest facial recognition software could be used to build a larger intelligence picture and assist the Portuguese investigation. So far, 173 people have uploaded photographs - a total of 1,000 images. 1 June 2007

A website - www.madeleine. ceopupload.com - was launched yesterday to receive the photographs.
Jim Gamble, of CEOP, said the facial recognition software will move the investigation forward.
He said: "No matter how small or insignificant the information may seem to you, it could be the missing part of the jigsaw, so let us decide if it is important." 22 May 2007

Did the PJ receive these photos? Who was in charge of checking these photos and I hope SY now have them all.
Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

Offline Carana

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #339 on: February 14, 2016, 08:44:59 PM »
The website http://www.madeleine.ceopupload.com/ was launched on 21 May. Holiday makers were urged to upload photographs that had people in the background they did not know so that the latest facial recognition software could be used to build a larger intelligence picture and assist the Portuguese investigation. So far, 173 people have uploaded photographs - a total of 1,000 images. 1 June 2007

A website - www.madeleine. ceopupload.com - was launched yesterday to receive the photographs.
Jim Gamble, of CEOP, said the facial recognition software will move the investigation forward.
He said: "No matter how small or insignificant the information may seem to you, it could be the missing part of the jigsaw, so let us decide if it is important." 22 May 2007

Did the PJ receive these photos? Who was in charge of checking these photos and I hope SY now have them all.

What do you think the purpose was?

Offline blonk

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #340 on: February 14, 2016, 08:46:05 PM »
JERONIMO TOMAS RODRIGUES SALCEDAS (Phone No "91 768 ####) - bartender:
- He saw the missing Madeleine, for the last time, yesterday at 16.45h next to the restaurant;

REPORT OF EXTERNAL WORK [Investigation Activity]
Date: 2007/05/04 Location: Praia da Luz
Entity that determined the activity: superiorly determined
Funcionario [employee] that executed it: Miguel P*** and Duarte F****, Inspector
By posting this link, were you suggesting that this was a 100% reliable sighting of Madeleine at 4.45pm on 3 May?

Exactly which 'restaurant' was she supposed to have been at? 

Offline pathfinder73

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #341 on: February 14, 2016, 08:55:18 PM »
Tapas restaurant where they go for tea.
Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

Offline blonk

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #342 on: February 14, 2016, 10:41:34 PM »
Tapas restaurant where they go for tea.
Thanks, that's what I thought.

That absolutely proves that his statement is rubbish, because Madeleine was - according to the witnesses - in the Lobster's crèche above the Ocean Club restaurant until way past 4.45pm.

And the crèche records, assuming for the moment that they are correct, have Madeleine not being collected until 5.30pm (five minutes AFTER the twins were collected)   

Offline pathfinder73

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #343 on: February 14, 2016, 11:05:47 PM »
Thanks, that's what I thought.

That absolutely proves that his statement is rubbish, because Madeleine was - according to the witnesses - in the Lobster's crèche above the Ocean Club restaurant until way past 4.45pm.

And the crèche records, assuming for the moment that they are correct, have Madeleine not being collected until 5.30pm (five minutes AFTER the twins were collected)   

Madeleine was at the tapas area for tea not at the creche.

"When she finished jogging, around 5:20/5:30PM she went to the Tapas area. Gerry was there, as well as the twins and Madeleine who were eating at separate tables." KM

"Kate went to get Madeleine from the Tapas Bar area and according to what I remember she was wearing sporting clothes and I assumed that she was practicing some form of athletics." CB

Jeronimo Tomas Rodrigues Salcedas Tapas Barman / Waiter

He saw the missing Madeleine, for the last time, yesterday at 16.45h next to the restaurant. 4 May 2007

The children began arriving at 0900 until 1230 when their respective parents collected them for lunch, and returned at 1430 until 1645 when the Infants' teachers took the children to eat something appropriate for their age at the Tapas restaurant. Most of the parents met their respective children here, and the children then remained in their parents' care.

http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/EMMA_WILDING.htm

I think that covers it.
« Last Edit: February 14, 2016, 11:20:51 PM by pathfinder73 »
Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

Offline pegasus

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #344 on: February 15, 2016, 02:16:43 AM »
Under Irish pub

http://www.yelp.com/biz/kellys-luz

Facebook page

Watching the game ... In an Irish pub September 5, 2015

With them kids!!, watching the footy,
I know it's an Irish bar, it's literally full of Irish expats! July 13, 2014
Please post information from the correct year Pathfinder, not from 7 or 8 years later.
Here is a fact, written by an expert local, in 2007
"Despite the Irish sounding name, Kellys is actually a Welsh owned bar."
http://www.macpherson-neil.co.uk/JustLuz/Bars2aa.htm#Kellys