Author Topic: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?  (Read 156396 times)

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Offline pegasus

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #345 on: February 15, 2016, 02:28:36 AM »
Looks like I have now been adopted by the Irish, as I have been in Kelly's, and I am definitely not Irish.

Oddly enough, I have not noticed an Irish accent, or for that matter a Welsh accent, on any of my few visits.

All sounded English to me.  But my hearing may be going as I get older.

Mind you, if both large screen TVs were showing English football, not Irish football, or Welsh football, maybe that would explain the English accents.  That's typical Kelly's, as I have experienced it.
Shining if you ask how the place got it's name, my guess you might find that is the first (given) name of the original owner?

Offline misty

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #346 on: February 15, 2016, 02:33:43 AM »
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MARTIN_SMITH.htm
snipped
— Questioned, says that the individual did not speak nor did the child as she was in a deep sleep.
— States that it is not possible for him to recognise the individual in person or by photograph.
— Adds that in May and August of 2006, he saw ROBERT MURAT in Praia da Luz bars. On one of these occasions, the first, he was inebriated and spoke to everyone. He did not wear glasses at that time. He also states that the individual who carried the child was not ROBERT. He would have recognised him immediately.

Look at the order of the answers in the statement.
"He wouldn't recognise the individual in person or by photograph"
Pause.
Does Inspector Carlos then show him just the one picture, of RM, a Tannerman suspect? Carlos wasn't to know that MS knew RM.
What legitimate reason did MS have to link his sighting to Tannerman?
The other 2 witnesses questioned did not mention being shown any photos for identification/elimination purposes.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2016, 02:41:19 AM by misty »

Offline pathfinder73

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #347 on: February 15, 2016, 11:31:01 AM »
Please post information from the correct year Pathfinder, not from 7 or 8 years later.
Here is a fact, written by an expert local, in 2007
"Despite the Irish sounding name, Kellys is actually a Welsh owned bar."
http://www.macpherson-neil.co.uk/JustLuz/Bars2aa.htm#Kellys

Not that it matters if it's Irish or Welsh. All that matters is the Smiths left that place and saw the person who did it at the time I said and which Jim Gamble presumably didn't like.
Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

Offline blonk

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #348 on: February 16, 2016, 12:25:34 AM »
Madeleine was at the tapas area for tea not at the creche.

"When she finished jogging, around 5:20/5:30PM she went to the Tapas area. Gerry was there, as well as the twins and Madeleine who were eating at separate tables." KM

"Kate went to get Madeleine from the Tapas Bar area and according to what I remember she was wearing sporting clothes and I assumed that she was practicing some form of athletics." CB

Jeronimo Tomas Rodrigues Salcedas Tapas Barman / Waiter

He saw the missing Madeleine, for the last time, yesterday at 16.45h next to the restaurant. 4 May 2007

The children began arriving at 0900 until 1230 when their respective parents collected them for lunch, and returned at 1430 until 1645 when the Infants' teachers took the children to eat something appropriate for their age at the Tapas restaurant. Most of the parents met their respective children here, and the children then remained in their parents' care.

http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/EMMA_WILDING.htm

I think that covers it.
I don't think it does 'cover it'.


1. You link to Emma Wilding's statement.  I've looked at her statement, and she says this: "She remembers that during the afternoon of May 3 Madeleine was at the Mini Club, but she does not remember at what time she arrived, and if on that day Madeleine accompanied the other children at 1645 as was customary.
She is also not sure whether her parents joined her during the snack, as was customary.
  That certainly doesn't help to authenticate this 'high tea'.

2. You've referred to Jeronimo Tome Rodrigues Salcedas confirming that he saw Madeleine 'at 4.45pm'. I see he made TWO statements, but as far as I can see he makes NO such statement I neither of them. The claim that he saw Madeleine at 4.45pm is written down by a police constable but is NOT in his statements - unless I have missed something. Indeed he says he can't remember seeing the family during the daytime on 3 May
 
3. Why do the crèche record sheets say that Kate collected the twins at 5.25pm but that Gerry collected Madeleine at 5.30pm. IF as you suggest the crèche records were signed AT THE HIGH TEA in the Tapas area, why did one parent not sign all three at the same time?

4. Are we sure that throughout the week there actually was a high tea every day and are we sure that every day the crèche records were brought to the Tapas area for signature? This does not seen likely. IF this was the practice, can you explain why each evening the crèche records give DIFFERENT times for the collection of Madeleine and the twins.

5. Especially when Cat Baker in her statement say this:  "When asked, the informant [Cat Baker] responds that it was always the parents who brought Madeleine and fetched her from the ‘Mini Club.’  (NOT from the Tapas restaurant)

6. Charlotte Pennington never mentioned the high tea in her first statement. Then, four months later, she told a newspaper that she WAS at the high tea and 'it went on late from 5.30pm to 6.00pm. By contrast, Gerry McCann in his second statement says they left there at 5.30pm

7. Kate and Gerry say they went back to the apartment together, but Kate said she was carrying Madeleine because she was so 'tired, pale and exhausted' (no-one else mentions this). How credible is it that Gerry walked side by side with the twins whilst Kate was lumbered with carrying Madeleine, who must have weighed well over 2 stone?

8. For what possible reason did Gerry enter by the front door and then 'let Kate and the children in by the patio door'?   

9. Last but not least, in her statement Cat Baker told the police that Madeleine was 'picked up' that afternoon by Kate, not Gerry - contradicting the claim that Gerry went to meet the twins and then Madeleine, allegedly at 4.45pm and 5.00pm respectively at the Tapas restaurant.           

It is also of note that in his book Dr Goncalo Amaral says this: “The last time that the child was seen outside of the group, by someone who can prove they saw her, was at around 5.35pm, when the parents went to pick her up at the crèche”.  Creche, not 'high tea at the Tapas restaurant'.

If all these queries could be satisfactorily cleared up, I might be persuaded that there really was a 'high tea' with Madeleine present in the late afternoon of 3 May   

Offline pathfinder73

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #349 on: February 16, 2016, 01:38:13 AM »
Date: 2007.05.10
Place: Praia da Luz, Lagos
Officer responsible: Manuel Pinho, Inspector
Description and result of diligence
Today (10 May 07), accompanied by Joao Barreiras and Catriona Baker, the 'nanny' responsible for the missing minor, retraced the places and times at which they left the resort area to go to Praia da Luz. A photographic report [of this journey] is attached:
- We were told by Catriona that the only days they went to the beach were Tuesday afternoon (1 May 2007) between 15:30 and 16:30, on Wednesday (the next day) at the same time and on Thursday between 10 and 11 o'clock (see attached table [of creche activities]).

On the Thursday they went sailing next to the beach.

- On that day they sailed in a small yellow "catamaran";
- Alice Standley accompanied the children on the route and on the boat. Three children sailed with her at one time;

- Chris Unswork transported the children in a red amphibious boat (life-saving boat) until the boat reached the open sea, and, a few minutes later, returned them to the beach to pick up three other children from the group;

- All said that the children did not meet anyone else during their time at the beach, nor during the trip to it.
- All said that they saw no-one suspicious watching the children nor in the vicinity.

- Catriona said she noticed nothing abnormal [unusual] along the route either when going to the beach or when returning to the resort area.

Q: Have you considered the possibility that Madeleine died on the previous night or even when Mrs. Fenn heard the crying?
 
GA: Naturally - the investigation begins with establishing if the person who disappeared, does actually exist and then, who was the last person to see her - the investigation shows clearly that she was last seen around 17.30.
 
Q: Have you any doubt as to the validity of Madeleine attending the creche on 3/5?
 
GA: No doubt whatsoever.
Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

Offline pegasus

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #350 on: February 16, 2016, 02:27:52 AM »
(snip) ....  are we sure that every day the crèche records were brought to the Tapas area for signature? This does not seen likely. IF this was the practice, can you explain why each evening the crèche records give DIFFERENT times for the collection of Madeleine and the twins .... (snip)   
Yes the record sheets were taken at tea time to the tapas area. To sign out M required going to nanny CB at the tea area and signing her Lobsters sheet. To sign out the other two children required going to nanny SP at the tea area and signing her Jellyfish sheet. IMO it is unrealistic to expect those two signatures to be simultaneous.

Offline pegasus

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #351 on: February 16, 2016, 02:38:10 AM »
IMO it's most unlikely that uncontained carrying will be part of the solution.
The JT sighting, and the Smith sighting, will both be irrelevant IMO. 
« Last Edit: February 16, 2016, 03:19:40 AM by pegasus »

Offline Eleanor

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #352 on: February 16, 2016, 08:01:34 AM »

Any further Off Topic Posts will be Deleted.

Offline slartibartfast

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #353 on: February 16, 2016, 08:10:50 AM »
IMO it's most unlikely that uncontained carrying will be part of the solution.
The JT sighting, and the Smith sighting, will both be irrelevant IMO.

The art of concealment involves appearing to be something expected in the environment.
“Reasoning will never make a Man correct an ill Opinion, which by Reasoning he never acquired”.

Offline pathfinder73

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #354 on: February 16, 2016, 10:32:41 AM »
IMO it's most unlikely that uncontained carrying will be part of the solution.
The JT sighting, and the Smith sighting, will both be irrelevant IMO. 


You are wrong. I know who, how, when, the why is trickier without Maddy.

Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

Offline Carana

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #355 on: February 16, 2016, 11:24:44 AM »
May I suggest that Madeleine & 3 May be taken to a new thread?

Offline John

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #356 on: February 16, 2016, 12:51:44 PM »
But it is only hearsay that his wife agreed.... according to Martin Smith she backed him
She did not want to give a statement.

Just hearsay.

Currently editing this thread but this dated post by Sadie has reminded me that I have always found it puzzling that Mary Smith (as far as we know) never gave a statement to the Irish Gardaí nor returned to Portugal to assist with enquiries yet she was an eye witness to a potential child abduction.  That in itself is very odd?
« Last Edit: February 16, 2016, 01:17:23 PM by John »
A malicious prosecution for a crime which never existed. An exposé of egregious malfeasance by public officials.
Indeed, the truth never changes with the passage of time.

Offline John

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #357 on: February 16, 2016, 01:19:15 PM »
From The Telegraph
Updated 15 February 2016

Mary and Martin Smith, from Ireland, told police they saw a man carrying a child matching Madeleine’s description at around 10pm on Rua da Escola Primaria, 500 yards from the McCanns’ apartment. He was heading towards the beach, did not look like a tourist and did not seem comfortable carrying the child, they said.
Their evidence was compelling, but it was only in October 2013 that two e-fit images of the man, compiled by police from descriptions given by Mr and Mrs Smith, were released by Scotland Yard to coincide with a BBC Crimewatch reconstruction of Madeleine’s disappearance.



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/madeleinemccann/11078595/Madeleine-McCann-are-we-any-closer-to-knowing-the-truth.html
A malicious prosecution for a crime which never existed. An exposé of egregious malfeasance by public officials.
Indeed, the truth never changes with the passage of time.

Offline pathfinder73

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #358 on: February 16, 2016, 02:17:43 PM »
'He (Krugel) clearly identified an area of the beach where Madeleine may have passed through or was buried,' a close friend of the McCanns said yesterday.
Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

Offline ShiningInLuz

Re: Was Martin Smith mistaken about his 60% - 80% certainty after all?
« Reply #359 on: February 16, 2016, 05:10:07 PM »
Currently editing this thread but this dated post by Sadie has reminded me that I have always found it puzzling that Mary Smith (as far as we know) never gave a statement to the Irish Gardaí nor returned to Portugal to assist with enquiries yet she was an eye witness to a potential child abduction.  That in itself is very odd?
Do you really think so?

From the Smith family viewpoint, 3 members flew back to Portugal to give statements, and then took part in a photo reconstruction.

This effort was when the sighting might, or might not, have been significant.

The process for the 3 would not have been simple.  Apart from the flight, they then had to first participate in the interview process.  I believe that on 26 May, the PJ was using Portimão, as it's base, so it is better than Faro, but worse than Luz.

And the conduct of the interviews must have been a bit tortuous.  Questions in Portuguese put by the PJ.  Translation into English.  Answer in English.  Translation by interpreter into Portuguese.  PJ note the result in Portuguese.  With a wrapper at the end of getting the final statement translated into English, for each witness to agree and sign.

So which Smiths didn't come forward, who might have useful information (even now)?

One 4 year old and one 6 year old.  I doubt either had anything particularly useful to add, then or now.  I cannot see any family putting two children of such ages through a flight abroad etc. on the hope that they might have a sliver of information that makes a difference.  As it happens, nowadays those two kids just might have a tiny sliver of information that progresses the case.  It has nothing to do with descriptions or e-fits.  It would not come near to cracking the case.  And by now, I doubt they can remember the incident much, if at all.

Aoife did the trip, and put on record some very valuable information.  I particularly like her statement for the way that when she doesn't know the answer, she is clear that she doesn't know.

Peter's wife, the one pregnant and feeling unwell, on her first trip to Luz, appears to have been alongside Peter, at the time of the sighting.  This is based on Peter's description that he did not notice Smithman much as he was concentrating on his wife.  One would assume that a pregnant woman, feeling unwell, faced with a next day flight had more to think about at encounter time than Smithman.  Peter was with her.  One of the two flying to Portugal was surely enough.  If Peter's wife had gone back, then judging by Peter's statement, she would not have been asked more than Peter would, and so would probably have added little.  Both Peter and his wife can be asked fresh questions today, and the answers may (or may not) provide additional useful information.

Martin's wife, at the time of the Smith sighting, was I assume alongside Martin, but that is an assumption on my part.  I am not au fait with Martin and Mary's family structure.  But again, it seems if they were together, then on the surface one sighter would do.

If anyone makes it out to Luz, please come out and have a look with me at the Smith sighting scene under comparable conditions.  I do not make it poor lighting.  I make it adequate for purpose - pedestrian and vehicular traffic - but not fit for an identification parade or e-fits.

(And yes, I have a keen interest in the Smithman sighting.)

That takes me on to the two children who did not return.  From memory, they were aged 10 and 13, compared to Aoife's 12, and those two might have added something useful then.  They might still be capable of adding something useful now, just not descriptions or e-fits.

Let me turn to the issue of the Gardaí.  I mean no disrespect to them, but like many of those involved in this case, they had basically no clue as to the layout of the sighting, or the questions to ask.  If they had taken statements from Mary, from Peter's wife, from the children aged 10 and 13, the only way they would have got further valuable information is by pure chance.

If Mary had made a statement, and later had been involved in the e-fits, as the Telegraph suggests, surely we should have another statement and two e-fits that look like Gerry?  Both seemed to think Smithman was a Gerry look-a-like.  So why does one e-fit look like Gerry while the other does not?
What's up, old man?