Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..

[jassi]

oh dear...perhaps you could enlighten us all...and explain the difference

I have explained twice, already.
 Possibility is the chance something MIGHT happen - probability is the LIKELIHOOD of something happening.

Someone MIGHT win the lottery if they buy a ticket, but it is UNLIKELY that they will

[Mr Gray]

I have explained twice, already.
 Possibility is the chance something MIGHT happen - probability is the LIKELIHOOD of something happening.

Someone MIGHT win the lottery if they buy a ticket, but it is UNLIKELY that they will

statistics is not concerned whether something is likely or unlikely to happen...therefore in statistics possibility is the same as probability

[jassi]

No it isn't, but never mind, you continue to think what you like.

[AnneGuedes]

No it isn't, but never mind, you continue to think what you like.

[AnneGuedes]

In Portugal if a child disappears it appears there is no immediate media public campaign to draw attention to that fact - as there would be in other countries.  IMO that lack of publicity would be seen as a massive advantage to would-be abductor(s).     

What's your source for that, Benice ?
http://viladalongra.blogspot.pt/2008/06/beb-raptado-da-maternidade-de-penafiel.html
This baby was taken from his crib under his mum's eyes by a false nurse, but the PJ found it quickly.

[AnneGuedes]

Having said all that, parental involvement in the child's death or disappearance -  a much more likely scenario in terms of statistics in the abstract  -   in this particular case, would entail the parents' guilt of other major crimes (perverting the course of justice in several countries; serious fraud, to name but two) as well.

Is it the parental involvement that would entail those other crimes or is it the insistence in proclaiming abduction from bed, unprecedented event that the media echo chamber multiplied, ruining any human control ?
An accidental homicide would be far more plausible than an abduction from bed or even from street, but there's a rub, it would mean that the McCanns didn't say the truth and the idea that such a beautiful couple of doctors could have lied is unbearable, so unbearable that... it can't be. Any explanation will do, but the lie is taboo.
Denying reality.. such a common process though.
We know nevertheless that, without real motive, the McCanns didn't say the truth to the media which they criticized for... their lies..
Really revealing, Mrs McCann tells in "Madeleine" that they lied as if the fact of revealing it launched her on the track of truth (fault confessed is half redressed). Revealing that she lied deleted the lie and purified her.
There no other reason for this confession.

Allow me to correct you, SH, the Ecclesiast, not David, said there is nothing new under the sun. He said he was David's son but it doesn't seem he was Solomon.

[colombosstogey]

They probabiy did as they looked at records of people dyng in 5a to account for the dog indications....and found none....the PJ have had a lot of flack from people who have had no idea what they actually did n all that time....alot more than what was recorded too.this turned iut toe the bggest and most expensive manhunt in their history.....what they did was overlooked and ignored....the way they have been villified is just short of criminal IMO

The fact that it has taken Scotland Yard TWO YEARS to trawl through all the paperwork from the PJ would show to me that the PJ were more then thorough in their investigations.

And what has SY come up with NOTHING.....

[Victoria]

The fact that it has taken Scotland Yard TWO YEARS to trawl through all the paperwork from the PJ would show to me that the PJ were more then thorough in their investigations.

And what has SY come up with NOTHING.....

Unfortunately, it often takes longer to unravel a mess than it does to make one.

[jassi]

Unfortunately, it often takes longer to unravel a mess than it does to make one.

There is also all the stuff that the various private detective agencies produced - though it's likely of little value, it will all need to be reviewed.

[Mr Gray]

The fact that it has taken Scotland Yard TWO YEARS to trawl through all the paperwork from the PJ would show to me that the PJ were more then thorough in their investigations.

And what has SY come up with NOTHING.....

 that's right 2 years....and they don't seem to have found ANYTHING to implicate the parents

[jassi]

Nor indeed, anybody else.

[AnneGuedes]

Completely insane, no, loving parents in a tricky situation as Anne explained, not wanting to cause a life of guilt for their children. I can go with that, it's more tasteful than Proffessor plum in the drawingroom with the lead pipe.

Kate did claim to know what happened, happened under circumstances other than the children being asleep.

This post doesn't make sense and should be deleted as was mine to which it reacted.
The number of posts deleted the last day of 2013 is impressive !
I must thank Davel for pointing to this (even if his intention was mocking).

[pegasus]

Assuming hypothetically that the abduction theory is correct, and that the abductor entered through the window, it is statistically likely that the noise of the shutter being raised from outside would wake someone in the room. And therefore it is statistically likely that after climbing in, the hypothetical abductor would need to follow into another room, and so the hypothetical abduction would statistically be more likely to be from that other room, not from the north bedroom. All IMO

[Lyall]

The persistent attempts by Anne Guedes to raise the intellectual tone of this Forum are boring, and a complete waste of time and band width.  And more often than not her comments bear no relation to the thread in question.

If I posted such spurious twaddle I would have been warned far more often than I already have.
Anne Guedes however, remains unscathed.

Humour, Eleanor, that's the point you're missing. Happy New Year

[jassi]

Interesting how people can  interpret the meaning of posts differently.