Statistically...what are the chances that Maddie was abducted..

[AnneGuedes]

Well, you've just answered your own question. There are many reasons why Madeleine could have gone missing, the vast majority of which have nothing to do with her parents. That is the reality in this case. Those are the statistics that would be applicable - if it helps to do that after the fact.

If we learn something about the McCanns' lives that would make it more likely that they were guilty of something, such as a history of child abuse, then we would adjust the balance of probabilities accordingly.

No. And you haven't answered it as well. Where are the stats ?
I bet that most cases are accidents, by neglect or not.

[colombosstogey]

I don't agree. Things go on behind closed doors that no one ever finds out about, or not for a very long time anyway. This is especially true of middle class families who may feel ashamed about such things.

an anecdotal example : A and B where married for over forty years. When they were both retired and the children had left home and had families of their own, A leaves B and finally admits that she's been a victim of domestic violence for all of her married life. She finally left when she was convinced he was actually going to kill her.  The children didn't even know!

A and B's job were comparable to the Mccanns, though they weren't actually Dr's. Same kind of pay scale though. Oh and they were very religious! Church every Sunday.

I knew one just like that myself.

ALSO where did the nanny go of the McCanns?

I also read that Mrs McCanns mother mentioned problems at the beginning ..... its there somewhere...

PND can be a silent killer and no one but the mother knows they have it, and just ONE silly thing can trigger it off.

I think most people hide stuff.

[sadie]

That is a false claim Sadie.  The shutters can be down and still let 20% light into the room.

How John?  How can solid shutters allow light in?

You are an engineer John.  I am too.   To let 20% light in, then there have to be gaps of 20%.  Huge gaps!

Are you saying that the slats were openable, like venetian blinds?   cos i dont think they were ... but I am happy to be proved wrong.


On trips abroad when I have used shutters (rarely) the light exclusion has been absolute

[Mr Gray]

There's no evidence of their whitehood ! Perhaps, perhaps not.
As Icabodcrane has underlined above, abduction hasn't been established.
Therefore, among children reported missing, as  it is Madeleine's case, what are the chances to be abducted by parent/friend, by stranger, by adopting parents, to have been sold, to have been killed by predator, to  be in a sex ring, to have died in a domestic accident, to be the victim of an homicide by neglect, etc.

If we look at children reported missing by parents I think you will find that in the majority of cases no parental involvement...cant do it now but lets start the ball rolling...Jamie Bulger...Ben Needham ..Jessica chapman.. Holly Wills, Millie Dowling

[Benice]

Hmmmm. I don't think any information as to their previous history is in the public domain?

There is plenty of photographic evidence and family videos which show that Madeleine had a very full and happy  life imo,  some would say even 'privileged', in comparison to many children.   The fact that she was a most 'wanted' child is also indisputable imo.

There is no evidence at all to show that she was so unimportant to her parents that  they could decide in a trice to dispose of her body because she had died -  and had suddenly become an 'obstacle' to their future happiness which needed to be quickly removed.      Unbelievable nonsense of the highest order IMO because their lives would have been ruined anyway if she had died. 

[Wonderfulspam]

There is plenty of photographic evidence and family videos which show that Madeleine had a very full and happy  life imo,  some would say even 'privileged', in comparison to many children.   The fact that she was a most 'wanted' child is also indisputable imo.

There is no evidence at all to show that she was so unimportant to her parents that  they could decide in a trice to dispose of her body because she had died -  and had suddenly become an 'obstacle' to their future happiness which needed to be quickly removed.      Unbelievable nonsense of the highest order IMO because their lives would have been ruined anyway if she had died.

There is plenty of photographic evidence and family videos which show that Madeleine had a very full and happy life imo

"Had"   

So she is dead then.

[Mr Gray]

There is plenty of photographic evidence and family videos which show that Madeleine had a very full and happy life imo

"Had"   

So she is dead then.

 I think everyone..including the McCanns accept that maddie is almost certainly dead...there is a very slight chance she may be alive.

[Benice]

There is plenty of photographic evidence and family videos which show that Madeleine had a very full and happy life imo

"Had"   

So she is dead then.

I have no idea whether she is dead or not.  The word 'had' is used because her life at home has been in the past from the moment she disappeared.     To have said ''she 'HAS' a full and happy life at home with her family would make no sense as it would denote she is still at home.

[John]

How John?  How can solid shutters allow light in?

You are an engineer John.  I am too.   To let 20% light in, then there have to be gaps of 20%.  Huge gaps!

Are you saying that the slats were openable, like venetian blinds?   cos i dont think they were ... but I am happy to be proved wrong.


On trips abroad when I have used shutters (rarely) the light exclusion has been absolute

They aren't solid Sadie.  Did you not look at the example which Angelo posted a few days back?  They are slatted and can be adjusted very simply to let some light and air in.

Assuming the shutter is fully down with the slats completely closed, To open the slats one simply pulls the strap.  The slats then begin to separate and open starting at the top of the shutter, once all the slats are open the shutter will begin to rise.  A very simple, tried and tested mechanism which has been used in all Mediterranean countries for years.

It is possible to have the shutters down but with the slats opened wide enough to allow some light and air into the room.




The shutter below is open at the top but closed at the bottom.  By adjusting the tension in the pull strap the openings can be set to any desired level of light.

[John]

Here is a short video which clearly shows how some light gets through the shutters when properly set.  Watch as the light disappears as the shutter is fully lowered/closed.

[j.rob]

If we look at children reported missing by parents I think you will find that in the majority of cases no parental involvement...cant do it now but lets start the ball rolling...Jamie Bulger...Ben Needham ..Jessica chapman.. Holly Wills, Millie Dowling

The statistics support the fact that in the majority of cases there is parental involvement. You are sighting cases where there was not parental involvement - that is a small minority of cases. The fact that they got such an enormous amount of publicity was because that kind of stranger abduction, is very rare. It also sells newspapers as it taps into parental fear and anxiety and creates an atmosphere of pananoia.

I presume that the McCanns were seeking to generate such an atmosphere. The chaos, confusion, dread and so on. It is all colourfully described in Kate's book which reads more like a piece of fiction than anything else.

Some of the purple passages are just cringe worthy and, as I have written before, they do not ring true because it takes time to process traumatic events. In the first instance, the response is more likely to be either one of intense clarity and focus (in order to achieve the best outcome, knowing that panic is counter-productive) or possibly denial or dissociation.

The type of 'blind panic' described so passionately in Kate's book - which she claims she felt within a few minutes of finding Madeleine missing - does not ring true.

[j.rob]

And neither do other aspects of their story. The entire edifice is based on a single assumption. Which is that the McCanns are telling the truth. Why would it be that the McCanns and their friends are the sole purveys of this commodity? They have certainly been very quick to challenge and sue those who do not believe their version of events.

The only truthful explanation for Madeleine's disappearance, if the McCanns and their friends had no prior knowledge or were completely innocent of anything to do with it, would be that they did not know what happened to Madeleine. But that is not what they said. They cannot 'know' what happened to Madeleine unless they were there when it happened or unless they had something to do with it.

That's relatively amateur detective work, don't you think?

[stephen25000]

And neither do other aspects of their story. The entire edifice is based on a single assumption. Which is that the McCanns are telling the truth. Why would it be that the McCanns and their friends are the sole purveys of this commodity? They have certainly been very quick to challenge and sue those who do not believe their version of events.

The only truthful explanation for Madeleine's disappearance, if the McCanns and their friends had no prior knowledge or were completely innocent of anything to do with it, would be that they did not know what happened to Madeleine. But that is not what they said. They cannot 'know' what happened to Madeleine unless they were there when it happened or unless they had something to do with it.

That's relatively amateur detective work, don't you think?

Succinctly put j.rob

 

[sadie]

They aren't solid Sadie.  Did you not look at the example which Angelo posted a few days back?  They are slatted and can be adjusted very simply to let some light and air in.

Assuming the shutter is fully down with the slats completely closed, To open the slats one simply pulls the strap.  The slats then begin to separate and open starting at the top of the shutter, once all the slats are open the shutter will begin to rise.  A very simple, tried and tested mechanism which has been used in all Mediterranean countries for years.

Yes, I appreciate they were slatted but when left closed, including slats, then NO light would enter.

The Mccanns left them closed. 

For any light to have got in, per Matts statement, seems someone had opened the slats or lifted the whole blind.  And this indicates that the abduction had taken place by the time that Matt checked the children ... or at the very least, the abductor had had a look in. 

Can you tell me, with complete knowledge of this actual shutter .... could the slats, as opposed to the whole shutter, be opened by outside interference only? 

We know that the whole shutter could be temporarily lifted from outside but could the slats have been permanently opened from outside.  Anyone know?


Heri ?  Are you there, please ?

[stephen25000]

Yes, I appreciate they were slatted but when left closed, including slats, then NO light would enter.

The Mccanns left them closed. 

For any light to have got in, per Matts statement, seems someone had opened the slats or lifted the whole blind.  And this indicates that the abduction had taken place by the time that Matt checked the children ... or at the very least, the abductor had had a look in. 

Can you tell me, with complete knowledge of this actual shutter .... could the slats, as opposed to the whole shutter, be opened by outside interference only? 

We know that the whole shutter could be temporarily lifted from outside but could the slats have been permanently opened from outside.  Anyone know?


Heri ?  Are you there, please ?

Now if you are as you claim an engineer, you would appreciate that you would n ot get a perfect seal, let alone taking into account refraction or reflection of light from/on different surfaces.

You assume the mccanns left them closed, but you do not know that as a fact.

As to abduction, UNPROVEN.