Richard Hall's film 'When Madeleine Died?' uploaded to YouTube 19th Feb

[Carana]

Chav 

At least my method works internationally. 

[Eleanor]

"Dirty days hath September April June and November.
All the rest have dirty ones except February's which are indescribably filthy"

That is funny.

[blonk]

The first relevant test is to compare the Sagres and Faro charts for the period.  This comparison quite clearly shows there were large differences between the two, hardly surprising as they are over 50 miles apart in two halves (Barlavento and Sotovento) of the Algarve known to have different patterns.

As Faro is 40 miles to the E of Luz, while Sagres is 14ml to the W of Luz, a first level conclusion would be to prefer the Sagres version as likely to be more accurate, based purely on proximity.

There is a far, far easier method than all of this interpolation, extrapolation or interpretation or whatever we call it between two places some way from Praia da Luz, namely Sagres and Faro. And that's to ask someone who was there on that very day - Thursday 3rd May.

Who better than a Tapas 7 member.

This is Fiona Payne's verbatim and succinct account of the day's weather:

QUOTE:    “And I remember the Thursday was a bit of a transition day, as I say, you know, with the weather, it just seemed to warm up, it was sunnier, erm, and it was a very pleasant evening, you know, it was a nice sunny evening, warm”    UNQUOTE 

This is consistent with the mid-day temperature on Thursday (as per Hall's film) of a mere 17C (compare Sunday mid-day when it was 21C), but a later rise in the late afternoon that day to a maximum of 19C.

It looks like the 'hour of sun' that Praia da Luz was blessed with that day probably came about 5pm or 6pm.   

[ShiningInLuz]

There is a far, far easier method than all of this interpolation, extrapolation or interpretation or whatever we call it between two places some way from Praia da Luz, namely Sagres and Faro. And that's to ask someone who was there on that very day - Thursday 3rd May.

Who better than a Tapas 7 member.

This is Fiona Payne's verbatim and succinct account of the day's weather:

QUOTE:    “And I remember the Thursday was a bit of a transition day, as I say, you know, with the weather, it just seemed to warm up, it was sunnier, erm, and it was a very pleasant evening, you know, it was a nice sunny evening, warm”    UNQUOTE 

This is consistent with the mid-day temperature on Thursday (as per Hall's film) of a mere 17C (compare Sunday mid-day when it was 21C), but a later rise in the late afternoon that day to a maximum of 19C.

It looks like the 'hour of sun' that Praia da Luz was blessed with that day probably came about 5pm or 6pm.

If that is all we need then let's just junk Mr Hall's chart.  Sunshine at about 5 or 6pm?  Not according to Mr Hall's chart, which has no sunshine that day.

Here is Mr Hall's chart again.  Zero sun on 3 May.

[blonk]

If that is all we need then let's just junk Mr Hall's chart.  Sunshine at about 5 or 6pm?  Not according to Mr Hall's chart, which has no sunshine that day.

Here is Mr Hall's chart again.  Zero sun on 3 May.

Er, I think you have misinterpreted Hall's chart.

The grey bars show, I believe, the proportion of the sky covered by cloud.

A grey bar to the top: 100% cloud cover.

A grey bar to the middle: 50% cloud cover.

A low grey bar: maybe 10% or 20% cloud cover.

I am not sure as I can't seem to expand it all to read it properly.

Even if you have 80% or 90% cloud cover, you can still get short sunny intervals.

To me the chart looks consistent with Fiona Payne's concise summation of the weather that Thursday.         

[Carana]

Er, I think you have misinterpreted Hall's chart.

The grey bars show, I believe, the proportion of the sky covered by cloud.

A grey bar to the top: 100% cloud cover.

A grey bar to the middle: 50% cloud cover.

A low grey bar: maybe 10% or 20% cloud cover.

I am not sure as I can't seem to expand it all to read it properly.

Even if you have 80% or 90% cloud cover, you can still get short sunny intervals.

To me the chart looks consistent with Fiona Payne's concise summation of the weather that Thursday.       

It would help to know the source of this chart. What do the vertical pink lines represent?

[pathfinder73]

1578 'The third of May, are you able to summarise the days activities''
RO 'Yeah, the day was actually, it was different to the others because, well it was warmer weather wise.

Thursday was a pretty decent day for weather. MO

Whilst I was out sailing with Matt he fell in the water, I had to sail back to save him this made the day quite memorable that and it being the best day weather wise.  ROB

We took all the kids down to the beach because it was actually nicer weather.  So, yeah, the Thursday was probably the first day I think the sun had more come out in the day”. JT

Thursday was a bit of a transition day, as I say, you know, with the weather, it just seemed to warm up, it was sunnier, erm, and it was a very pleasant evening, you know, it was a nice sunny evening, warm'. FP

[Alice Purjorick]

Mr Hall says there is no independent corroboration of a sighting of Madeleine on 3rd May 2007.
Sr Amaral says there is an independent sighting around 17:30 on 3rd May 2007.
So they disagree.
Leaving supporters on the horns of a dilemma.
Sr Amaral says Madeleine was alive on 3rd May 2007.....that's errrm errr sort of you know well ..... right      .

[misty]

http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/CAROL_TRANMER.htm

*snipped*

CAROLE TRANMER STATEMENT - PART II - CONTINUED

DC1485'What time before this did you see the individual'

CT'It must have happened, I do not want to guess, I cannot...it was during the time we were on the terrace, between three and three-thirty until six, when we returned to the apartment, five-thirty or six because it was cooling down, thus, it was in the afternoon, and I hate to do this, excuse me but it was on'

DC1485'It does not matter that you are trying to guess, it does not matter that you guess.

CT'If it was in the afternoon, somewhere three, three-thirty and five-thirty, because the sun was going down and it was getting colder.

DC1485'Well.

CT'Well, I am certain that we were on the terrace between 3:00/3:30 until 5:30 on Thursday afternoon.

=======================================================================

An independent witness who may well have seen Madeleine returning to 5a at aound 5.30pm with the rest of her family.
 She also confirmed the sun was shining.

[ShiningInLuz]

Er, I think you have misinterpreted Hall's chart.

The grey bars show, I believe, the proportion of the sky covered by cloud.

A grey bar to the top: 100% cloud cover.

A grey bar to the middle: 50% cloud cover.

A low grey bar: maybe 10% or 20% cloud cover.

I am not sure as I can't seem to expand it all to read it properly.

Even if you have 80% or 90% cloud cover, you can still get short sunny intervals.

To me the chart looks consistent with Fiona Payne's concise summation of the weather that Thursday.       

If you can get a weather station that tells the proportion of the sky covered by cloud, please tell me where I can buy one.

After Mr Hall's video I have worked out 2 types of sunshine measurers.  Both work on the simple principle of - it was very bright - or - it was not very bright.

The old fashioned kind uses a glass sphere to burn a sun track into a special curved strip.  The newer one uses sensors deployed around a central rod, to see whether the rod is casting a shadow (so sunny) or all the sensors say not (so cloudy).

Neither technology, nor Fiona Payne's statement, frankly, is very important.

It's still Sagres records v Hall's chart.  They don't match up.  One is wrong.

[Carana]

Someone on 3A appeared to have got the full Exif data.


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This application uses Phil Harvey's most excellent Image::ExifTool library, version 7.21.
Jeffrey last modifed this viewer on Feb 4, 2008.

http://3as.madeleinemccann.org/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=13025&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&hilit=generation

The camera first came out towards the end of 2005.
http://www.dpreview.com/reviews/canona620/

[stephen25000]

Will this fixation with the weather never end ?

[slartibartfast]

Will this fixation with the weather never end ?

Most of us are British...

[Mr Gray]

for those that haven't realised the fixation with the weather is aimed at debunking hall's video

[Carana]

This all beings us back to the question of the paucity of photographs of Madeleine that week.

Leaving aside for a moment the two very controversial photos - the 'Last Photo' and the 'Tennis Balls' photo, which miraculously seems to have been taken on two different days by two different people - what are we left with? - just three, all obviously taken on the late Saturday afternoon just after they arrived in Praia da Luz.

(snip)           

Whoever posted notes (Albym?) seems to have noted quite a few photos of Madeleine.

The pink tracksuit one is noted as being taken on 2 May, but I'm not sure where that information came from.

The "playground man" pic was taken that day, according to Bruno Press.
http://www.brunopress.nl/bin/Brunopress.dll/go?a=disp&t=sr-loadersearch.html&searchtext=madeleine+mccann+2007

(p. 8 - ref 01256702 and 01256698)

If so, there must have been a bit of sunshine poking through at some point on Wed pm.

http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/HOLIDAY-PHOTOS-LIST.htm