Author Topic: Sadie's theory.  (Read 126774 times)

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Offline G-Unit

Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #15 on: February 19, 2016, 08:39:11 AM »
I have a question if anyone knows the answer. How dark is in at the beginning of May at 9.15pm? It seemed extremely dark during Edgar's reconstruction with Jane and Gerry. Russell didn't seem sure if it was completely dark at 9.30pm when he and Matthew checked, however. 
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Offline blonk

Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #16 on: February 19, 2016, 10:22:00 AM »
I have a question if anyone knows the answer. How dark is in at the beginning of May at 9.15pm? It seemed extremely dark during Edgar's reconstruction with Jane and Gerry. Russell didn't seem sure if it was completely dark at 9.30pm when he and Matthew checked, however.

According to this site: http://www.timeanddate.com/sun/portugal/faro?month=5&year=2007

...sunset at Faro on 3 May 2007 was at 8.22pm.

That makes it about an hour before Jane Tanner's 'sighting' of someone (whether 'Crecheman' or someone else) at about 9.15pm. It would be pretty dark an hour after sunset (it gets darker more quickly the nearer you are to the equator), though of course it does get progressively slightly darker still until just before dawn.

SADIE'S THOREM / THEOREM / THEORY

I would like to understand what it is. I appreciate it involves the thought that the abductor might be someone who had been guilty of previous abduction/burglary attempts in the area. But have I understood correctly that this is what Sadie actually says happened (I have had a look at the other thread):

1. A bloke was eyeing up Apartment G5A having already decided to abduct Madeleine
2. He had an accomplice waiting in a car in the car parking area nearest to G5A
3. He didn't abduct Madeleine after seeing Gerry and Kate leave their apartment at about 8.30pm
4. His plan was slightly affected after seeing Gerry and Jes Wilkins talking in the lane
5. He had an entry key card
6. He decided to swiftly 'nip in' (actual quote by Sadie) and abduct Madeleine
7. He decided for an unknown reason (maybe as a 'red herring') to lift up both the windows and the shutters even though he had an entry key/card
8. He quickly took Madeleine to the waiting car
9. The two of them drover off with Madeleine.

If I have understood this correctly, I would like to ask Sadie these questions:

A. Is there any forensic or circumstantial evidence that Madeleine was abducted, apart from the claims of the McCanns and their friends (including Jane Tanner)?
B. If so, what is it?
C. For what possible reason did the abductor lift the windows and shutters?
D. Was 'Tannerman' really 'Crecheman'?
E. If the abductor and his driver drove off with Madeleine, does this make the 'Smithman' sighting, at best, totally irrelevant?
         

   

Offline ShiningInLuz

Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #17 on: February 19, 2016, 12:57:13 PM »
According to this site: http://www.timeanddate.com/sun/portugal/faro?month=5&year=2007

...sunset at Faro on 3 May 2007 was at 8.22pm.

That makes it about an hour before Jane Tanner's 'sighting' of someone (whether 'Crecheman' or someone else) at about 9.15pm. It would be pretty dark an hour after sunset (it gets darker more quickly the nearer you are to the equator), though of course it does get progressively slightly darker still until just before dawn.

SADIE'S THOREM / THEOREM / THEORY

I would like to understand what it is. I appreciate it involves the thought that the abductor might be someone who had been guilty of previous abduction/burglary attempts in the area. But have I understood correctly that this is what Sadie actually says happened (I have had a look at the other thread):

1. A bloke was eyeing up Apartment G5A having already decided to abduct Madeleine
2. He had an accomplice waiting in a car in the car parking area nearest to G5A
3. He didn't abduct Madeleine after seeing Gerry and Kate leave their apartment at about 8.30pm
4. His plan was slightly affected after seeing Gerry and Jes Wilkins talking in the lane
5. He had an entry key card
6. He decided to swiftly 'nip in' (actual quote by Sadie) and abduct Madeleine
7. He decided for an unknown reason (maybe as a 'red herring') to lift up both the windows and the shutters even though he had an entry key/card
8. He quickly took Madeleine to the waiting car
9. The two of them drover off with Madeleine.

If I have understood this correctly, I would like to ask Sadie these questions:

A. Is there any forensic or circumstantial evidence that Madeleine was abducted, apart from the claims of the McCanns and their friends (including Jane Tanner)?
B. If so, what is it?
C. For what possible reason did the abductor lift the windows and shutters?
D. Was 'Tannerman' really 'Crecheman'?
E. If the abductor and his driver drove off with Madeleine, does this make the 'Smithman' sighting, at best, totally irrelevant?
           
I haven't read the threads pointed out yet.  I hope folks will bear in mind that ideas evolve over time, so the details of Sadie's theory, as stated by Sadie in the past, may not be the details of Sadie's theory, as at this point in time.

I would like to address point C, in the context of a pre-planned abduction.  "C. For what possible reason did the abductor lift the windows and shutters?" 

If I had a key and went in/out the front door, would I open the window and the shutter, to attempt to conceal the fact that I had a key?  My motivation in concealing the fact that I had a key is obvious.  I don't want them looking at who had keys.  And no, I didn't know the patio door was open OR I thought that route was so risky non-one would believe.  I simply wanted to conceal that I had a key.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2016, 02:10:25 PM by ShiningInLuz »
What's up, old man?

Offline G-Unit

Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #18 on: February 19, 2016, 01:17:48 PM »
I haven't read the threads pointed out yet.  I hope folks will bear in mind that ideas evolve over time, so the details of Sadie's theorem, as stated by Sadie in the past, may not be the details of Sadie's theorem, as at this point in time.

I would like to address point C, in the context of a pre-planned abduction.  "C. For what possible reason did the abductor lift the windows and shutters?" 

If I had a key and went in/out the front door, would I open the window and the shutter, to attempt to conceal the fact that I had a key?  My motivation in concealing the fact that I had a key is obvious.  I don't want them looking at who had keys.  And no, I didn't know the patio door was open OR I thought that route was so risky non-one would believe.  I simply wanted to conceal that I had a key.

That only works if you didn't know the patio door was unlocked. If you did know, there's no need to suggest you used the window as the assumption would be that you used the patio doors and were a risk taker (which you clearly would be anyway, given the small window of opportunity).

If you watched before entering would you conclude that the patio doors were unlocked when you saw the checkers going in and out that way, or would you assume they were using a key? I suppose it would depend on how well you knew the apartments. If you got the keys by stealing them, not much I guess. If from an accomplice who worked there then you would, if you had a brain, have also asked numerous questions about the layout etc.
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Result = edits, deletions and unhappiness
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Offline blonk

Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #19 on: February 19, 2016, 01:20:16 PM »
I would like to address point C, in the context of a pre-planned abduction.  "C. For what possible reason did the abductor lift the windows and shutters?" 

If I had a key and went in/out the front door, would I open the window and the shutter, to attempt to conceal the fact that I had a key?  My motivation in concealing the fact that I had a key is obvious.  I don't want them looking at who had keys.  And no, I didn't know the patio door was open OR I thought that route was so risky non-one would believe.  I simply wanted to conceal that I had a key.

At the risk of leaving your fingerprints all over the window frames and shutters? I hardly think so.

But...unless...the abductor was wearing gloves??

This must be point 10 of Sadie's theory, then:

10. The abductor was wearing gloves. 

Offline Brietta

Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #20 on: February 19, 2016, 01:24:36 PM »
I haven't read the threads pointed out yet.  I hope folks will bear in mind that ideas evolve over time, so the details of Sadie's theorem, as stated by Sadie in the past, may not be the details of Sadie's theorem, as at this point in time.

I would like to address point C, in the context of a pre-planned abduction.  "C. For what possible reason did the abductor lift the windows and shutters?" 

If I had a key and went in/out the front door, would I open the window and the shutter, to attempt to conceal the fact that I had a key?  My motivation in concealing the fact that I had a key is obvious.  I don't want them looking at who had keys.  And no, I didn't know the patio door was open OR I thought that route was so risky non-one would believe.  I simply wanted to conceal that I had a key.

That is a probability.
Mr Amaral was at pains in his documentary to illustrate that it was not possible to open the lock on the wooden door with a credit card.  Why? ... I have no idea.

If a key had been used the person using it could have been traced either as having access or having been given it by someone who had access.  It would be logical to play that fact down.

Other reasons could be
  • an escape route
  • to pass Madeleine out
"All I'm going to say is that we've conducted a very serious investigation and there's no indication that Madeleine McCann's parents are connected to her disappearance. On the other hand, we have a lot of evidence pointing out that Christian killed her," Wolter told the "Friday at 9"....

Online Eleanor

Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #21 on: February 19, 2016, 01:28:04 PM »
That is a probability.
Mr Amaral was at pains in his documentary to illustrate that it was not possible to open the lock on the wooden door with a credit card.  Why? ... I have no idea.

If a key had been used the person using it could have been traced either as having access or having been given it by someone who had access.  It would be logical to play that fact down.

Other reasons could be
  • an escape route
  • to pass Madeleine out

Didn't one of the Ocean Club workers briefly lose a set of keys?  Who followed up that?

Offline Brietta

Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #22 on: February 19, 2016, 01:38:16 PM »
Didn't one of the Ocean Club workers briefly lose a set of keys?  Who followed up that?

Unfortunately the police weren't told about it at the time.  On the other hand ... did any of them ask people appropriate questions which might have led to information such as this being imparted?
Perhaps the worker was wary of confiding in them ... it is easy to be wise after the event ... but in similar circumstances I most certainly would not have dismissed the loss of keys as irrelevant.


**Snip
The former Ocean Club worker revealed: “I remember my colleague telling some of us the keys to that block had been lost.

“He told us about it in the week when the child was taken but I cannot remember the exact day. In the maintenance department we kept duplicates of all keys to the apartments.

“They were on a long cable and very clearly marked and we kept them in a safe.

“If there was a problem, a water leak, a gas leak, it was important for us to have entry to apartments if the owners or guests were out.

“When the man told us about the lost keys, he started crying. He was very upset. He was worried about losing his job, I think, and he did not want others to know about it.

“After the child disappeared, we all had to give statements to the police but I did not mention the keys had been lost because I did not think it was relevant.”
http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/458798/Apartment-key-theft-cover-up-by-resort-staff-in-Madeleine-McCann-case
"All I'm going to say is that we've conducted a very serious investigation and there's no indication that Madeleine McCann's parents are connected to her disappearance. On the other hand, we have a lot of evidence pointing out that Christian killed her," Wolter told the "Friday at 9"....

Offline Jean-Pierre

Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #23 on: February 19, 2016, 01:48:52 PM »
In his video, Amaral "proved that an abduction did not happen" in the following manner:

"43.25 - Final Evidence

 43.28 – With the help from one of the major experts from the Scientific Police, who worked for the Polícia Judiciária, Alexandre Simas, Gonçalo Amaral intends to prove, first, that it was impossible for the child to be abducted, starting by demonstrating that the indications prove that the apartment’s window and door were not forced.

 43.47 - How does one open a door like this, without the key?

Alexandre Simas
 Expert (Former Polícia Judiciária)

 43.51 – This type of apartment door, normally there are only three possibilities: to extract the lock’s cannon, which didn’t happen, or it would have been reported; a false key, a copy or one that was used without permission; or using a malleable material, as long as it’s not locked, it’s introduced, and it makes the lock go back inside. But when it goes in, even if it did, it would hit this screw. If it hits the screw, no matter how much I force it, it doesn’t jump to open the lock for me.

 44.33 – If the door wasn’t opened without a key, the window doesn’t bear any traces of having been forced, either.

 44.40 – These windows have a very good characteristic to check if they were forced or not. Being made of lacquered aluminium, any screwdriver, any instrument that is used to make the lock jump, immediately leaves a mark. What we can see here, there is no break-in, the mark that is there belongs to the lock itself as it rotates, sometimes one does this with the lock in place, and it hits there. So, to open this window, all we have to do is this. To close it, it’s impossible, because either one has a magnet on his fingers to pull the window…

45.18 – Another important fact is revealed by the fingerprints that are left on the bedroom window, which the McCanns insist they left closed, and is supposedly found open when the mother notices her daughter is missing. The only fingerprints that are found belong to Kate McCann, and reveal that they were made by opening the window.

 45.42 – These three indications mean that there was no abduction, and that is proved. No abductor entered apartment 5A, through the door or through the window."

Was this chap really a policeman?  On this basis of this "proof", I really do begin to wonder.  On the basis of this proof - he has in fact very neatly demonstrated a way in which an abduction could have happened - simply by using a key to unlock the door. 

(The above was clipped from an extended transcript -link to the whole thing here http://joana-morais.blogspot.com/2009/04/maddie-truth-of-lie-documentary.html)



Offline ShiningInLuz

Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #24 on: February 19, 2016, 02:23:51 PM »
One of the mods requested that I should tidy up the thread title.

I did not realise the issue was a misspelling.  So I checked the meaning of theorem and theory.  Basically, the difference is that a theorem is accepted as true, while a theory is a model of what happens but still to be proved or disproved.

On this basis, I have changed the thread title to Sadie's theory.

My apologies to all for a double blooper.
What's up, old man?

Offline pathfinder73

Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #25 on: February 19, 2016, 02:32:59 PM »
At the risk of leaving your fingerprints all over the window frames and shutters? I hardly think so.

But...unless...the abductor was wearing gloves??

This must be point 10 of Sadie's theory, then:

10. The abductor was wearing gloves.

No prints are lifted that are likely to belong to an unknown person, nor the slightest trace of gloves which could have been worn by a hypothetical abductor. In the middle of this desert of clues, two prints are perfectly easily found: the very distinct mark of a palm print on the balcony window at the rear of the apartment, and a clearly visible one of fingers on the window pane of Madeleine's bedroom. The excellent quality of the palm print seemed suspicious to us. Later, analyses confirm our suspicions: it belonged to one of the officers who were present the previous night. (TOTL)
Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

ferryman

  • Guest
Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #26 on: February 19, 2016, 02:43:39 PM »
Well, don't confuse 'sadie bashing' with her theories getting a bashing as you all seem to do on here. When anyone challenges the abduction theory we are accused of bashing the parents and harming their twins. Bit rich really.

Yes, I for one will always challenge theories, regardless from hence they come. If they are so great and unbeatable I will concede and congratulate..... but, never gonna happen, as they are outragous anyway.

Accuse be damned.

Anyone who denies the reality and truth of abduction (as at least part of the explanation of what happened to Madeleine) flies in the face of the Portuguese prosecutors, Joao Carlos, who wrote the final PJ report, Andy Redwood, who said Madeleine was abducted from her bed in a criminal act by (a) stranger(s) and anyone else who has properly examined the evidence.

That is not an 'accusation'.

The only cautionary note I would sound is that we can't (altogether) dismiss the possibility of the second enquiry having unearthed evidence, at present, unknown more widely that might change the picture.

But that is pure speculation ....

That is a fact.

Kudos to SIL for giving Sadie's theory an airing.

Offline blonk

Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #27 on: February 19, 2016, 03:04:23 PM »


I think we should surely be able to ask Sadie what evidence there is of an abduction apart from the evidence of the McCanns and their friends.

Is that not a reasonable question to ask?

 
« Last Edit: February 19, 2016, 03:51:30 PM by Eleanor »

ferryman

  • Guest
Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #28 on: February 19, 2016, 03:14:10 PM »

Quote
I think we should surely be able to ask Sadie what evidence there is of an abduction apart from the evidence of the McCanns and their friends.

Is that not a reasonable question to ask?

No it isn't.

We have the prosecutors' report (archiving dispatch) which affirms the truth of abduction, and we have the final PJ report, which dismisses woke and wandered and affirms abduction.

There is nothing in the files which sustains a theory of parental involvement (or involvement of any of their friends) in the disappearance of Madeleine, aside from the Almeida report which is superseded by the final PJ report, written by Joaoa Carlos.
« Last Edit: February 19, 2016, 04:17:58 PM by ferryman »

ferryman

  • Guest
Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #29 on: February 19, 2016, 03:22:35 PM »
One of the mods requested that I should tidy up the thread title.

I did not realise the issue was a misspelling.  So I checked the meaning of theorem and theory.  Basically, the difference is that a theorem is accepted as true, while a theory is a model of what happens but still to be proved or disproved.

On this basis, I have changed the thread title to Sadie's theory.

My apologies to all for a double blooper.

When I can speak (and write!) Portuguese, even half as well as you can speak and write English, SIL, I might quibble.

But not until ....