Author Topic: Sadie's theory.  (Read 126755 times)

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Offline ShiningInLuz

Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #105 on: February 20, 2016, 03:49:42 PM »
Heri has carried out a study on the effects of lighting in the area of both the Smith and Tanner sighting locations ... I think that, as you have done Shining, that is the only way to get a 'feel' for the circumstances at the time.
He had the advantage that when he took his photographs, the lighting was as it had been and not updated.

...

http://espacioexterior.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/the-madeleine-mccann-abduction-janosch.html
That's an extremely interesting link, Brietta.  I thought I had trawled back through all of Heri's blog.  Perhaps I did but did not have enough knowledge of the case at that time to understand the importance.

The info on DNA is also way beyond what I have. Excellent stuff.

Many thanks for this.
What's up, old man?

Offline G-Unit

Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #106 on: February 20, 2016, 04:16:55 PM »
I think it would be as difficult for a perpetrator acting independent of others to manoeuvre a recumbent child out of the door as it would have been to exit via the window.

Unless ...
  • open door and entered taking care to leave the door ajar
  • make directly for the sleeping child, lift her and exit by the open door, giving a problem when pulling the door to a close

This would leave no reason for the intruder to open the window.

I think the window comes into it for passing Madeleine through ...
  • intruder and accomplice approach recessed front door, wait to make sure the coast is clear
  • intruder enters and raises the shutter before opening the window
  • intruder lifts Madeleine and passes her to accomplice who waited in the shadows for the window to be opened
  • intruder exits via door and vaults small wall
  • accomplice passes Madeleine over the wall ... they separate ... with one walking briskly carrying a child to whatever escape route or vehicle planned ... and as the only person seen carrying a child in the requisite area at the requisite time by anyone ... one could well have been the person seen by Jane Tanner
All of that could have been accomplished in a very short space of time if the abduction was planned and rehearsed. It is worth reading what Heri has to say about the timing of Jane's sighting.

The tracker dogs used showed no interest in the window or opposite wall areas. I'm no expert, but I have read that bits fall off people (skin cells etc) and that's what they follow. I would suggest that enough of the child's scent would have fallen off during those manoeuvres to make the dogs pause below that window.


 
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Alfred R Jones

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Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #107 on: February 20, 2016, 04:24:43 PM »
The tracker dogs used showed no interest in the window or opposite wall areas. I'm no expert, but I have read that bits fall off people (skin cells etc) and that's what they follow. I would suggest that enough of the child's scent would have fallen off during those manoeuvres to make the dogs pause below that window.
wouldn't the entire room have been full of Madeleine's scent anyway?

Offline pathfinder73

Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #108 on: February 20, 2016, 04:53:18 PM »
In fact Smithman is more likely to be innocent because an abductor would not have put himself in the position of having to confront a large group of people who thereafter would be eyewitnesses.  Consequently NOT evidence of abduction.

In addition, given Redwoods revelation moment, Tannerman would also appear to be an innocent tourist.  If anything, this strengthens the woke and wandered scenario.

If he was innocent they wouldn't still be looking for eye witnesses because they know he ain't going to come forward. She wandered and dropped dead on the wasteland and crawled up a drain is what you think SY believe?
Smithman carrying a child in his arms checked his watch after passing the Smith family and the time was 10:03. Both are still unidentified 10 years later.

Offline ShiningInLuz

Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #109 on: February 20, 2016, 04:56:40 PM »
Thanks SIL. What I was wondering was if Sadie's correct in thinking that a 'watcher' on the public balcony would be able to exit through the rear gardens into the car park south of the block.
I can't know for certain.

What I do know is that if I wished to get down the west side of block 6 following an abduction, then a gate followed by trespass followed by another gate would not stop me.

I suppose that my biggest issue with this particular point of Sadie's theorem is using the car park to the rear of block 6.  The Berry and Balu party on the balcony of 606 seems a bit of a problem.  True, they were wining and dining, not acting as the local neighbourhood watch, much like the Tapas 9.

But why stick a car there, opposite the Tapas entrance?  Why not in the car park of block 4, which is much less risky?

However, as Sadie has said, she has tried to explain the main pieces of evidence with her theory, without claiming it is infallible.
What's up, old man?

Offline G-Unit

Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #110 on: February 20, 2016, 05:34:31 PM »
wouldn't the entire room have been full of Madeleine's scent anyway?

The dogs tracked from the front door and went left along the passageway towards Block 4, not into the bedroom. If there was such a lot of handling of her between the wall and the window they should have shown interest there.
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Offline ShiningInLuz

Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #111 on: February 20, 2016, 06:04:24 PM »
That does look like the street lamp at the top of the photo and it isn't illuminating the pavement or the gate area, let alone the steps. AFAIK this is taken after the new lights were installed, look at the shape of them. There is plenty of light shining on the gate and up onto the balcony;



This photo shows the old lights-they are round;



This is what was said in the article where the above photos appeared;

The changing street lamps of Praia da Luz
 
By Nigel Moore
23 April 2009

it would have been an astonishing decision to replace the street lamps in order to reduce the quality of the lighting. So, we can safely assume that the lighting in the whole area around the Ocean Club is now considerably improved - in terms of brightness and visibility
http://www.mccannfiles.com/id237.html
Best photo I have seen so far of how the old street lamps illuminate the rear of 5A. Excellent stuff.

If I put my personal opinion on that, I am not seeing poor quality lighting.  It looks to me as is the patio of 5A is fairly well lit.  The entrance at the garden gate seems fairly well lit.  I cannot tell whether the stairs are illuminated or not.

Moving on to why the lights were replaced.  My life is too short to investigate the actual driver for this change.  Was it something to do with the Madeleine disappearance.  Probably not.  The STOP McCann circus graffiti seems still to be in place, something that is comparatively easy to change compared to the street lighting.

It could be a simple cost decision.  Old lights = expensive to run.  New lights = cheaper to run.

My favourite possibility is that there was an EU directive to reduce light heading into space.  I'm simply not going to search for such.

If the old spec and the new spec exist, we can make an informed decision as to whether the new lights increase the visibility.

I am not seeing anything wrong with the old visibility.  IMO, of course.
What's up, old man?

Offline Angelo222

Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #112 on: February 20, 2016, 06:08:52 PM »
If he was innocent they wouldn't still be looking for eye witnesses because they know he ain't going to come forward. She wandered and dropped dead on the wasteland and crawled up a drain is what you think SY believe?

Several theories are perfectly possible and start with the distressed child waking up again but this time trying to find her parents and getting out and wandering in the dark.  After that several possibilities exist including falling down a hole or being run over and lifted.
De troothe has the annoying habit of coming to the surface just when you least expect it!!

Je ne regrette rien!!

Offline G-Unit

Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #113 on: February 20, 2016, 06:11:16 PM »
Best photo I have seen so far of how the old street lamps illuminate the rear of 5A. Excellent stuff.

If I put my personal opinion on that, I am not seeing poor quality lighting.  It looks to me as is the patio of 5A is fairly well lit.  The entrance at the garden gate seems fairly well lit.  I cannot tell whether the stairs are illuminated or not.

Moving on to why the lights were replaced.  My life is too short to investigate the actual driver for this change.  Was it something to do with the Madeleine disappearance.  Probably not.  The STOP McCann circus graffiti seems still to be in place, something that is comparatively easy to change compared to the street lighting.

It could be a simple cost decision.  Old lights = expensive to run.  New lights = cheaper to run.

My favourite possibility is that there was an EU directive to reduce light heading into space.  I'm simply not going to search for such.

If the old spec and the new spec exist, we can make an informed decision as to whether the new lights increase the visibility.

I am not seeing anything wrong with the old visibility.  IMO, of course.

Those are the new ones in the top pic, which would have shown on the PJ pic imo. I can't find one with the old round ones.
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Offline John

Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #114 on: February 20, 2016, 07:16:09 PM »
This photo was taken in May 2007 shortly after Madeleine disappeared.

A malicious prosecution for a crime which never existed. An exposé of egregious malfeasance by public officials.
Indeed, the truth never changes with the passage of time.

Offline Alice Purjorick

Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #115 on: February 20, 2016, 07:25:32 PM »
This photo was taken in May 2007 shortly after Madeleine disappeared.



Best wear something white at night. Especially with those lovely white walls to stand out against and cast shadows over...................... &%+((£
"Navigating the difference between weird but normal grief and truly suspicious behaviour is the key for any detective worth his salt.". ….Sarah Bailey

Alfred R Jones

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Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #116 on: February 20, 2016, 07:27:53 PM »
Best wear something white at night. Especially with those lovely white walls to stand out against and cast shadows over...................... &%+((£
Have you anything sensible to contribute to this forum today, or are you just going to keep on trying very hard to amuse us?

Offline ShiningInLuz

Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #117 on: February 20, 2016, 07:53:36 PM »
This photo was taken in May 2007 shortly after Madeleine disappeared.


I have got to say that is excellent is several respects - timing and clarity.  Wonderful stuff.

What I am seeing is that the lighting seems to be sufficient to illuminate both the patio and cast some light on the stairs.

Anyone willing to take a punt on the colour of the GNR officer's uniform, without looking it up on Google.

I'm getting black (unlikely) or dark blue.  Mind you, I've got plenty of time to study a photo that I consider important.  Jane Tanner had a few seconds to look at something that was not important.
What's up, old man?

Offline John

Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #118 on: February 20, 2016, 08:00:03 PM »
This would appear to be a later photo taken from the block opposite.  Note again that the street lights are of the old round globe type which existed in 2007.

Also noteworthy is the new floodlight erected to the rear and above 5a after Madeleine disappeared.

« Last Edit: February 20, 2016, 08:02:23 PM by John »
A malicious prosecution for a crime which never existed. An exposé of egregious malfeasance by public officials.
Indeed, the truth never changes with the passage of time.

Offline ShiningInLuz

Re: Sadie's theory.
« Reply #119 on: February 20, 2016, 08:20:44 PM »
This would appear to be a later photo taken from the block opposite.  Note again that the street lights are of the old round globe type which existed in 2007.

Also noteworthy is the new floodlight erected to the rear and above 5a after Madeleine disappeared.


Minor correction.  That big lump in the central part of the pic is a (gas) tank outside the front of block 6.

The floodlight went on the front of block 5.

You should get out to Luz and get a tour, John.

No, I mean you really should.

Really, really, really.
What's up, old man?