Aoife's statement is more believable.
I am not at all sure that it is, actually.
She first saw the bloke when he was about two metres in front of her.
If so, they would have crossed, at normal walking pace, about 1.0 to 1.5 seconds later.
It was dark. The lighting was described by the Smiths as 'weak'.
I question whether in the space of a maximum of 1.5 seconds in the dark she could have recalled all that she claimed to have recalled.
Relevant parts of her statement bolded:
--------------------
— Around 22H00, they left Kelly's Bar. The group headed, on foot, for their apartment.
— Questioned, she responds that she knows the time that they left because her father and her brother decided to leave early that night. There were two reasons for this: one was the fact that her sister-in-law was not feeling very well and the other was because her brother, sister-in-law, nephew and son of her sister-in-law finished their holiday the next day and had to catch the morning flight returning to Ireland.
— Upon leaving the bar, they turned right and headed along the road for 40/50 metres. At this point, they again turned to the right and ascended a small street with stairs that give access to Rua 25 de Abril. As they were a large group (four adults and five children) they travelled apart from each other along the street with some more to the front and the others more behind. She does not remember how they were divided [who was where].
— The deponent remembers that
upon reaching the top of the stairs, she looked to her left and saw a man (1) with a female child (2) in his arms, walking along the pavement of Rua 25 de Abril. He was
walking in her direction at a distance of, give or take, two metres.— The deponent crossed to the other side of Rua 25 de Abril and began walking up Rua da Escola Primária in the direction of the Estrela da Luz apartment complex.
— She did not see if the referenced individual with the child descended Rua das Escadinhas or if he continued along Rua 25 de Abril.
— It was the first time she saw that man. She does not remember seeing him at any time in any location.
— She has seen photographs of Madeleine McCann and thinks that it could have been her. Asked, she said she was 60% certain.
— The description below made about the man and the female child that the witness saw was made at around 22H00, when
the lighting was weak. — Questioned, states that probably
she would not be able to recognise either the individual or the child.
Personal Description:
— (1) the individual was male,
Caucasian, light-skinned, between 20/30 years of age, of normal physical build, around 1,70/1,75 metres in height. At the time
she saw his face but now cannot remember it. She thinks that he had a
clean-shaven face. She does not remember seeing tattoos, scars or earrings. She did not notice his ears.
His hair was thick-ish, light brown in colour, short at the back (normal) and a bit longer on the top.
— His
trousers were smooth "rights" along the legs,
beige in colour, cotton fabric, thicker than linen, possibly with buttons, and without any other decoration.
— She did not see what he was wearing above his trousers as the child covered him almost completely at the top.
— She did not see what shoes he was wearing.
— The individual's gait was normal, between a fast walk and a run. He did not look tired, moving in a manner usual when one carries a child.
— (2) the child was female because
she had straight long hair to the neck. The
colour was fair/light brown.
— She is
certain that the child was about four years old because her niece (who was in the group) is of the same age and they were the same size.
—
She did not see the child's face because she was lying against the individual's left shoulder in a vertical position against the individual. She appeared to be sleeping. Her arms were suspended along her body and were not around the individual's neck. She did not look at the child's hands and
cannot state the colour of her skin. She believes she was white. — There was nothing covering the child, a comforter/blanket or any other piece of clothing but she only saw her back.
— She was
wearing light trousers, white or light pink, that may have been pyjamas. She does not remember if they were patterned as it was dark.
The material was lightweight/thin and could have been cotton.
— She also had a light top, with
long sleeves. She did not see it well because the individual had his arms around the child.
She is not sure if the child's top was the same colour as her trousers, saying only that it was very light. The fabric was the same as the trousers. To have deduced the fabrics of both the man's trousers and the girl's pyjamas from seeing the man and child for 1.0 to 1.5 seconds is an amazing feat of observation, if true.
As for Aoife Smith saying of the man, on 26th May in Portimao,
"she saw his face but now cannot remember it", that is exactly what one would expect after encountering a strange bloke in the dark for about one to one-and-a-half seconds.
Quite why anyone at all should believe that any of the Smith family could conjure up an e-fit one whole year later (well, two e-fits, actually), utterly defeats me
