The Sun claims Madeleine McCann was kidnapped during a botched burglary.

[lordpookles]

If you haven't identified all outcomes you cannot calculate probability
Your maths is totally skewed
I have a bag of numbered balls ... What is the probability of drawing number 23
Without knowing the total number of balls you cannot calculate the probability

Without pretending that I am a maths guru, which I am not - isn't that what Bayesian theory tries to deal with...

[ShiningInLuz]

If you haven't identified all outcomes you cannot calculate probability
Your maths is totally skewed
I have a bag of numbered lls?balls ... What is the probability of drawing number 23
Without knowing the total number of balls you cannot calculate the probability

What?

Am I supposed to care about your bag of numbered balls?  Or is this forum about the Madeleine McCann case?

[Mr Gray]

Without pretending that I am a maths guru, which I am not - isn't that what Bayesian theory tries to deal with...

No.... it is impossible t o work out the probability without knowing the number of balls....just as sil cannot estimate the probabilities if she doesn't understand all the possibilities

[ShiningInLuz]

On the contrary, you seem to be working very hard to defend a theory which is not supported by what we know. No-one has to 'make do' with lack of evidence, it's the one suggesting a theory who needs to find something to underpin it, not those being asked to believe it.

Your first post on the subject mentioned weak security (keys) Advance information (booking system) and control (allocating accommodation). You suggested one person in particular had knowledge of and access to all three.

Many more than one person could have had the knowledge and access, so the 'one person' assertion falls down.

It isn't possible to know if the MW system made a difference because we haven't seen booking information from other operators, so advance information could apply to all bookings.

Without a motive for allocating clients to a certain block, the 'control' serves what purpose?

OK, lets try it step by step.

Cruciform keys.  According to Heri, he nipped into the Luz high street key cutter and asked how much it was to get a copy made, the answer was €6.50.  According to me, the cost of a machine to cut cruciform keys in 2007 was ...  €300.

Do you consider that cruciform keys, which are as common as Yale keys in the UK, and which can be duplicated for €6.50, within Luz, are secure?

[Mr Gray]

What?

Am I supposed to care about your bag of numbered balls?  Or is this forum about the Madeleine McCann case?

You have discussed probability...or have you forgotten

[G-Unit]

OK, lets try it step by step.

Cruciform keys.  According to Heri, he nipped into the Luz high street key cutter and asked how much it was to get a copy made, the answer was €6.50.  According to me, the cost of a machine to cut cruciform keys in 2007 was ...  €300.

Do you consider that cruciform keys, which are as common as Yale keys in the UK, and which can be duplicated for €6.50, within Luz, are secure?

It doesn't matter how much it costs to have a key cut. The system of key control within OC is what matters.

[Mr Gray]

OK, lets try it step by step.

Cruciform keys.  According to Heri, he nipped into the Luz high street key cutter and asked how much it was to get a copy made, the answer was €6.50.  According to me, the cost of a machine to cut cruciform keys in 2007 was ...  €300.

Do you consider that cruciform keys, which are as common as Yale keys in the UK, and which can be duplicated for €6.50, within Luz, are secure?

what are the running costs like on the machine...including spare parts etc

[Mr Gray]

It doesn't matter how much it costs to have a key cut. The system of key control within OC is what matters.

no '''if this was a fiancially motivated abduction...as still suggests,33%..... it's important to look at all the financial outlay involved to check viability

[Alice Purjorick]

no '''if this was a fiancially motivated abduction...as still suggests,33%..... it's important to look at all the financial outlay involved to check viability

By inspection it can see the cost of producing keys even buying your own key cutter will be chicken feed in comparison to the whole job.

[G-Unit]

no '''if this was a fiancially motivated abduction...as still suggests,33%..... it's important to look at all the financial outlay involved to check viability

First you need to show you can get hold of a key before looking at the cost of copying it. No key no cost.

[Mr Gray]

By inspection it can see the cost of producing keys even buying your own key cutter will be chicken feed in comparison to the whole job.

I would rather wait for the breakdown on the running costs before making any decision

[Alice Purjorick]

I would rather wait for the breakdown on the running costs before making any decision

Just how much power do you think a key cutter consumes?
Your comment demonstrates just how little you know about such things.

[Mr Gray]

Just how much power do you think a key cutter consumes?
Your comment demonstrates just how little you know about such things.

I think you will find electricity is realtively cheap in portugal... I suggest you check your facts thoroughly before posting in future...anyone who is not familiar with the relative price structure of energy in the EU is poorly educated...imo...LOL

[Miss Taken Identity]

Keys?

what?  I thought the shutters were jemmied and windows opened and doors were left unlocked, what is this about keys?
That is what KATE said,

[ShiningInLuz]

It doesn't matter how much it costs to have a key cut. The system of key control within OC is what matters.

True.

So around 2012/13 we have evidence that the local ironmonger could cut keys easily.

Plus the cleaners could go off site at lunchtime, without handing keys back in.

Is there a jot of evidence that key control in the OC was secure?

Cos there is a bucketload it wasn't.