Abduction

[Carana]

a) Are these the burglars who have been casing the joint for a few days or another set ?
b) I concur with your last sentence. Any brief who could not drive a coach and pair through the ID of a suspect by a four year old should not be paid in washers. My favourite option would be coldcocking the kid and legging it or similar( tongue in cheek only partway)
c) Smelly bin man is an irrelevance. Right now its the how not the who and the how is yet to be established.
d) See second sentence of c) above.
As usual we wind up debating the middle without considering the beginning.

Ok, but I still haven't read your full OP. I found that there was a lot to unpack and discuss and I didn't have time to read it carefully. Will do.

[Carana]

@Alice

Taking your first scenario first.

The Pre-planned Snatch Theory
Any pre-planned snatch will have a similar framework cum activity list including but not limited to as we say.

The theory is contingent on certain items being a given i.e.:
1 There was abduction.
2 Abduction was commissioned by a rich type who specifically wanted MBM.
3 MBM was a heavy sleeper witness GM and MO both entering and leaving the apartment without awakening her, according to their statements.
4 According to the timeline drawn up by T9 there were two 10 minute slots after 21:15 when abduction could be effected.

Your imagined scenario that follows of how that could possibly work is quite possibly tongue-in-cheek, but quite well thought out, nonetheless, although there could be variations.

On point 2, however, I don't think I've ever come across a real case in which so-called "elites" have ordered the abduction of a specific child.

I do feel hampered by the fact that it's hard to trace any cases which haven't made international headlines in languages that I don't understand.

Nonetheless, the closest would be the murky Dutroux case, in which various other people in authority may have profited in some way, but still not that a specific child was targeted as opposed to an opportunistic one of a child who may have fitted a general description likely to appeal.

There have been a few other alleged cases, but the only sources I found led back to conspiracy theorists' blogs, with little to back up the assertions.

There is, of course, the abuse in the Jersey and other cases of children in care, but that was different again.

Organised gangs do snatch children for a variety of human trafficking purposes, but I've never heard of one in Western Europe targetting a specific child. That doesn't mean that it couldn't have been a first... ore one that I simply haven't heard of.

I guess that where that scenario falls down for me is that she was specifically targeted, as opposed to any little girl fitting a general descriptionn. On the other hand, if someone had spotted her and knew that that she'd be unattended... who knows?

In any sleepy village or even a large city in which young children are free to play outside would seem to be a far more likely target.

If someone had told me about the Fritzl case before I'd read the news, I'd have thought that they'd been reading too many Stephen King novels... yet it happened. With similar situations coming to light later.

Perhaps I'm wrong, but the idea and the planning involved to target her specifically is a scenario for the back-burner for me at the moment.

[Carana]

I think these two need to be taken together as they aren't necessarily mutually exclusive.


The Burglary Which Has Gone Wrong Theory:

•   Sentence for burglary if caught and convicted 5 years ish
•   Sentence for kidnap if caught and convicted  20 years ish
On that basis why would any burglar take a child instead of the easily negotiable goods and cash he went in for? Bearing in mind ca 80% of burglaries remain unsolved but a kidnapping?
The burglary has gone wrong and on the way in and out (unless the exit route was out front) the burglar makes time to reinstate doors gates and drapes……..was he under some kind of contractual reinstatement clause?

The Random Snatch Theory.

•   I’ll just pop in here to see if there is a child ………
Close.

p.s feel free to be abusive, hold it up to ridicule and shoot holes in it.
In fact the more you do the better I will enjoy it.


Just off the top of my head:

- There was the Bath (?) case of a burglar who noticed an open door and snatched a young girl from her bath, raped her and dumped her alive.

- The guy in the Meredith / Knox case who presumably had broken in to nick whatever he could, but ended up raping and murdering poor Meredith.

- The Dickinson case in which a guy entered a dorm of sleeping adolescents, raped and murdered a girl without anyone else waking up.

- The Smart case in which she was taken from her bed (but obviously older).

- A fairly recent French case (according to the last I heard, but which may now have been debunked, so a caveat there)  in which a young girl was apparently taken from her bed, by someone who'd climbed into the open French windows left open during a heatwave while the rest of the family was asleep, wrapped her in her bedsheet and passed her out through the window. A neighbour apparently woke up due to the noise of a child screaming in her garden.

- And, finally, the unresolved cases of smellyman, and / or anyone else who wasn't the same but who committed assaults in the area.

[Carana]

- There's also the W&W theory, with some opportunistic perp grabbing her once out.

That seems to have been widely discarded as implausible by most people, but I don't see how that can be totally eliminated as impossible.

[Mr Gray]

- There's also the W&W theory, with some opportunistic perp grabbing her once out.

That seems to have been widely discarded as implausible by most people, but I don't see how that can be totally eliminated as impossible.

No one has said it's impossible but the final report from the pj said it's highly unlikely which makes me think they have good reason to say that

[Carana]

No one has said it's impossible but the final report from the pj said it's highly unlikely which makes me think they have good reason to say that

I know.

The McCanns didn't think so, the PJ didn't find it likely, and seemingly the Met doesn't either.

There may be good reasons, but I'm not sure what would exclude the possibility.

I find it unlikely as well, but I don't see how it would be impossible.

I'd agree that I know of no child of that age who would even think to close a verandah door if wandering out. Rob seems convinced that the front door would have been difficult for her and it wouldn't have slammed shut...

I've been shut out of my place more often than I care to remember. Normally, it won't quite click shut unless there's a draft.

Just checked again. My door has a similar mechanism, but has a bevel the long of the inside. I can't remember if the 5A one did or not now.

[Robittybob1]

- There's also the W&W theory, with some opportunistic perp grabbing her once out.

That seems to have been widely discarded as implausible by most people, but I don't see how that can be totally eliminated as impossible.

Maybe it is the point John made on the other thread that you can't have meaningful cadaver odour findings and the woke and wander theory working hand in hand. http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=8922.msg439131#msg439131 punch line: "she couldn't have died in 5a and still walked out of it".

[Robittybob1]

I know.

The McCanns didn't think so, the PJ didn't find it likely, and seemingly the Met doesn't either.

There may be good reasons, but I'm not sure what would exclude the possibility.

I find it unlikely as well, but I don't see how it would be impossible.

I'd agree that I know of no child of that age who would even think to close a verandah door if wandering out. Rob seems convinced that the front door would have been difficult for her and it wouldn't have slammed shut...

I've been shut out of my place more often than I care to remember. Normally, it won't quite click shut unless there's a draft.

Just checked again. My door has a similar mechanism, but has a bevel the long of the inside. I can't remember if the 5A one did or not now.

Could you write the following sentence again Carana so I understand it better please?  "Just checked again. My door has a similar mechanism, but has a bevel the long of the inside. I can't remember if the 5A one did or not now."

5A had a bevelled latch bolt and a rectangular block behind that.  Were they operating as a single piece on closing the door or not?

[Carana]

Could you write the following sentence again Carana so I understand it better please?  "Just checked again. My door has a similar mechanism, but has a bevel the long of the inside. I can't remember if the 5A one did or not now."

5A had a bevelled latch bolt and a rectangular block behind that.  Were they operating as a single piece on closing the door or not?

Sorry, I wasn't clear. The inside (looking at the door mechanism from the latching perspective of where the door actually meets the door frame looks very similar.

By bevelling, I meant a strip of wood alongside the full edge of the part of the lateral part of the door viewed from my inside perspective from top to bottom.

[Brietta]

- There's also the W&W theory, with some opportunistic perp grabbing her once out.

That seems to have been widely discarded as implausible by most people, but I don't see how that can be totally eliminated as impossible.

There are hundreds of accounts of little children leaving their homes in the middle of the night and managing to cover considerable distances under their own steam.
I've not read of one case case of a child being killed on the road as a result.  I've not read of one wandering child being lifted from the street and maltreated in any way.
I have read of miraculous near misses and the generosity of strangers in time and effort of ensuring the safety of these wanderers.

Why would a little child wandering the dark streets of Praia da Luz be expected to vanish as a result?  In a RTA there would be some evidence.  Had she fallen into a drain or roadworks ... they were searched weren't they? ... she would have been found.  Had she wandered far enough to die of exposure somewhere, some trace would have been found.

In my opinion Madeleine vanished from within the apartment as a result of third party intervention.

[Robittybob1]

Sorry, I wasn't clear. The inside (looking at the door mechanism from the latching perspective of where the door actually meets the door frame looks very similar.

By bevelling, I meant a strip of wood alongside the full edge of the part of the lateral part of the door viewed from my inside perspective from top to bottom.

http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/P9/09_VOLUME_IXa_Page_2318.jpg   lower right photo shows end view of the latch bolt.  It all depends whether the two pieces move together or not.

I still didn't get what you meant by bevelled but if it is the full length of the door we must be talking about different things.

[Lace]

There are hundreds of accounts of little children leaving their homes in the middle of the night and managing to cover considerable distances under their own steam.
I've not read of one case case of a child being killed on the road as a result.  I've not read of one wandering child being lifted from the street and maltreated in any way.
I have read of miraculous near misses and the generosity of strangers in time and effort of ensuring the safety of these wanderers.

Why would a little child wandering the dark streets of Praia da Luz be expected to vanish as a result?  In a RTA there would be some evidence.  Had she fallen into a drain or roadworks ... they were searched weren't they? ... she would have been found.  Had she wandered far enough to die of exposure somewhere, some trace would have been found.

In my opinion Madeleine vanished from within the apartment as a result of third party intervention.

I would think that if Madeleine left the apartment,  she would have left through the patio doors as that was the normal route she left with her mother.

IMO Madeleine didn't leave the apartment,  as the curtain of the patio door was closed the gates were closed, it was dark and she had no shoes on.

IF she had left through the patio doors she would have seen the lights of the Ocean Club she would have heard talking and laughter and would have made her way to the Ocean Club,  but I don't think she did IMO.

[Robittybob1]

There are hundreds of accounts of little children leaving their homes in the middle of the night and managing to cover considerable distances under their own steam.
I've not read of one case case of a child being killed on the road as a result.  I've not read of one wandering child being lifted from the street and maltreated in any way.
I have read of miraculous near misses and the generosity of strangers in time and effort of ensuring the safety of these wanderers.

Why would a little child wandering the dark streets of Praia da Luz be expected to vanish as a result?  In a RTA there would be some evidence.  Had she fallen into a drain or roadworks ... they were searched weren't they? ... she would have been found.  Had she wandered far enough to die of exposure somewhere, some trace would have been found.

In my opinion Madeleine vanished from within the apartment as a result of third party intervention.

I find that incredible, in that if there are so many cases of wandering kids and so many near misses that there has never been an actual accident involving car verses wandering child.

[Alice Purjorick]

@Alice

Taking your first scenario first.

The Pre-planned Snatch Theory
Any pre-planned snatch will have a similar framework cum activity list including but not limited to as we say.

The theory is contingent on certain items being a given i.e.:
1 There was abduction.
2 Abduction was commissioned by a rich type who specifically wanted MBM.
3 MBM was a heavy sleeper witness GM and MO both entering and leaving the apartment without awakening her, according to their statements.
4 According to the timeline drawn up by T9 there were two 10 minute slots after 21:15 when abduction could be effected.

1) Your imagined scenario that follows of how that could possibly work is quite possibly tongue-in-cheek, but quite well thought out, nonetheless, although there could be variations.

On point 2, however, I don't think I've ever come across a real case in which so-called "elites" have ordered the abduction of a specific child.

I do feel hampered by the fact that it's hard to trace any cases which haven't made international headlines in languages that I don't understand.

Nonetheless, the closest would be the murky Dutroux case, in which various other people in authority may have profited in some way, but still not that a specific child was targeted as opposed to an opportunistic one of a child who may have fitted a general description likely to appeal.

There have been a few other alleged cases, but the only sources I found led back to conspiracy theorists' blogs, with little to back up the assertions.

There is, of course, the abuse in the Jersey and other cases of children in care, but that was different again.

2) Organised gangs do snatch children for a variety of human trafficking purposes, but I've never heard of one in Western Europe targetting a specific child. That doesn't mean that it couldn't have been a first... ore one that I simply haven't heard of.

3)I guess that where that scenario falls down for me is that she was specifically targeted, as opposed to any little girl fitting a general descriptionn. On the other hand, if someone had spotted her and knew that that she'd be unattended... who knows?

In any sleepy village or even a large city in which young children are free to play outside would seem to be a far more likely target.

If someone had told me about the Fritzl case before I'd read the news, I'd have thought that they'd been reading too many Stephen King novels... yet it happened. With similar situations coming to light later.

4) Perhaps I'm wrong, but the idea and the planning involved to target her specifically is a scenario for the back-burner for me at the moment.

1) Not so much tongue in cheek as "how would I plan this with minimum risk". The main problem being that people with those peculiar skill sets are not hanging on hooks just waiting to be lifted down.
2) Organised gangs would more likely target railway and bus stations in large border towns Trieste for example.
3) and 4) I am with you on both particularly 4)

[Brietta]

I find that incredible, in that if there are so many cases of wandering kids and so many near misses that there has never been an actual accident involving car verses wandering child.

I'm sure it must happen Robitty, just I've never heard of it.  Any woke and wandered incident I've read or heard of has ended with the safe recovery of the child.