what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?

[Robittybob1]

i dont lie to you because I dont need to...it serves no purpose.....

Now should I believe that?  I accept people make mistakes, jokes, statements in jest, typos, I don't call them lies. 
I have a habit of forgetting to write "NOT" in a sentence, giving my sentence the wrong meaning.  I don't count that as a lie.

Like 49 factorial  - not a lie just a dumb mistake.  I know now what it is, in NZ at least they drawn 6 balls to select the winning numbers, not all the balls, but just 6.  49*48*47*46*45*44 = 10,068,347,520  even that is too high.
On your card you choose 6 numbers so there must be  a division somewhere to.

[Mr Gray]

Now should I believe that?  I accept people make mistakes, jokes, statements in jest, typos, I don't call them lies. 
I have a habit of forgetting to write "NOT" in a sentence, giving my sentence the wrong meaning.  I don't count that as a lie.

Like 49 factorial  - not a lie just a dumb mistake.  I know now what it is, in NZ at least they drawn 6 balls to select the winning numbers, not all the balls, but just 6.  49*48*47*46*45*44 = 10,068,347,520  even that is too high.
On your card you choose 6 numbers so there must be  a division somewhere to.

it was  amistake ...not  a lie ..  it should have beeen 49 factorial to 6 places as there are six lottery balls

[Robittybob1]

it was  amistake ...not  a lie ..  it should have beeen 49 factorial to 6 places as there are six lottery balls

Even that is too high IMO. 

[John]

Ignoring the evidence in favour of probabilities is hardly constructive.

[Mr Gray]

Ignoring the evidence in favour of probabilities is hardly constructive.

the evidence is used to calculate  the probablities

[Mr Gray]

Even that is too high IMO.

perhaps it is..perhaps im wrong... i havent really given it my full attention

[Vertigo Swirl]

Could you be more specific? What exactly is the statistical difference between a child being abducted and Madeleine being abducted that would affect the odds?

Something happened to Madeleine to make her disappear.  This means the likelihood that she was abducted is vastly increased - it is one of only three explanations for her disappearance.  You stand a one in 700, 000 chance of being struck by lightning in any one year.  If your body is found on a golf course after an electrical storm with third degree burns the likelihood that the explanation for your death is you were struck by lightning is not one in 700,000 is it? 

[Mr Gray]

She was still the ONLY child to be abducted by a stranger abroad between October 1989 and May 3rd 2007.
If Madeleine was abducted by a stranger, you can't alter the fact she was the only ONE.

of course she was...as you understand... there has to be one..maddie was the one in the 45 million

[Mr Gray]

She was still the ONLY child to be abducted by a stranger abroad between October 1989 and May 3rd 2007.
If Madeleine was abducted by a stranger abroad, you can't alter the fact she was the only ONE.

odds and statistics are funny things...if I play roulette...black has come up 19 time in a row...the odds of black coming up 20 times in a row is about 250000 to one...so on that 20th spin...what are the odds of black coming up again... on  a perfectly true roulette wheel

[Mr Gray]

I don't know but I do know your money is on the ONE.

Good luck!

its 50/50...my money is in my pocket.

[Vertigo Swirl]

She was still the ONLY child to be abducted by a stranger abroad between October 1989 and May 3rd 2007.
If Madeleine was abducted by a stranger abroad, you can't alter the fact she was the only ONE.

And your point is....?

[Mr Gray]

Unless you can show how you came up with 50/50, it's all just pie in the sky. Your money is on the ONE.

Not bad odds either, IF they come up.

its red or black...for simplicity im ignoring zero and double zero

[Vertigo Swirl]

Your money is on the ONE. That's all!

Can you please stop referring to my money being on the one, I have not placed a bet, I have simply looked at all the information available in this case and come to a conclusion regarding what I think happened.   That’s all!

[Mr Gray]

Your making another fatal error in your estimations. There is red, black AND GREEN on a roulette wheel.

Zero is green, remember to factor that in.

as i said there is double zero too...

[Vertigo Swirl]

You believe in ONE. Those odds sound any better?

I believe in ONE what?  If I believe in ONE what do you believe in?  TWO?