what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?

[Mr Gray]

Don't worry.

As a scientist I had to have a razor-sharp understanding of how probabilities add up.

Hitch Hikers Guide to the Universe.  Douglas Adams.  Rigidly defined areas of doubt and uncertainty.

As per the MBM case.

Razor sharp mind my *****...its the Hitch hikers guide to the Galaxy...not the universe....LOL

[ShiningInLuz]

Can you be a bit more specific?  Did he know about Smithman and his location on the night of Madeleine’s abduction?  Because if he didn’t then what use is going looking for a man carrying a child in Pdl, days, weeks , months or years later?   

I think there is a way to progress the Smithman sighting.

Should I give up this aspiration and simply leave MBM to her fate?'

[ShiningInLuz]

Razor sharp mind my *****...its the Hitch hikers guide to the Galaxy...not the universe....LOL

Remember your 'sniping complaint'?

[Mr Gray]

Remember your 'sniping complaint'?

remember your truth comment

[Robittybob1]

I think there is a way to progress the Smithman sighting.

Should I give up this aspiration and simply leave MBM to her fate?'

It will get harder as we get older.   Some have already passed on e.g Alice Purjoric and others having time out e.g Sadie.  Keep your mind active. 
Don't give up.

[Mr Gray]

I think there is a way to progress the Smithman sighting.

Should I give up this aspiration and simply leave MBM to her fate?'

I dont think anything you do will make any difference...so yes ..stop wasting your time

[Brietta]

Since when did a question become a complaint? If you don't have an innocent explanation for Gerry's failure to look for Smithman despite KNOWING he was seen carrying a child matching his abducted daughter's description in his possession, that's fine. You'd be better saying nothing at all if that's the case IMO.

When do you imagine the Smiths remembered their encounter and reported it to the police?

[ShiningInLuz]

I dont think anything you do will make any difference...so yes ..stop wasting your time

OK, that tells me 100% about your care re MBM.   

[Mr Gray]

OK, that tells me 100% about your care re MBM.   

another thing your razor sharp mind has got wrong

[barrier]

I think there is a way to progress the Smithman sighting.

Such as?

[ShiningInLuz]

Can you please explain to those of us who are not statistical genii like yourself what part of what Davel wrote is wrong and why?

I already have.  Are you asking for round 2?

[ShiningInLuz]

Well do you agree that the sum of all the probabilities of the possible events (expressed as a percentage) must add up to 100%. 

Could you quote the bit in concern?

No.

Go to the moderators thread, and read where I explained why stats don't need to add up to 100%.

Scientists use stats to understand when they they know they don't know enough.

Rigidly defined areas of doubts and uncertainty.

[Mr Gray]

No.

Go to the moderators thread, and read where I explained why stats don't need to add up to 100%.

Scientists use stats to understand when they they know they don't know enough.

Rigidly defined areas of doubts and uncertainty.

you havent explained anything.....we are talking about the sum of all the possible outcomes...they have to add up to 100%...you dont seem to understand such a basic fact

[Mr Gray]

I think there is a way to progress the Smithman sighting.

Should I give up this aspiration and simply leave MBM to her fate?'

I did give you a suggestion which may have given the forum some insight. TWo men were seen with a child madeleines age at around 9 till 10 pm...is taht a common or unusual occurrence in Luz. Simply have a wander round Luz...early june may be amore representative time now...and count how many men with a child you see...that would be interesting

[ShiningInLuz]

you havent explained anything.....we are talking about the sum of all the possible outcomes...they have to add up to 100%...you dont seem to understand such a basic fact

Whereas I would call that a basic fail.  Your post makes that crystal clear.