what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?

[ShiningInLuz]

Perhaps you would like to follow your own advice and tell me where you believe I asked Rob to inform the moderators of anything ?

Do I really need to trawl through your posts for this poo?   

[Mr Gray]

As Davel is grouping all possible scenarios the total probability will be 100%.

SiL appears to be building up scenarios which will be less than 100% though when added together with unknown scenarios will be 100%.

I don’t think there is an issue just 2 views on the same thing.

There is an issue because as far as anyone else can see there aren't any other major scenarios.... Sil hasn't built up anything and has made no suggestion as to what these, scenarios might be... As Jassi pointed out and you agreed it's basically three buckets... And these buckets must add up to 100....so sil is wrong

[Mr Gray]

I believe in the absence of evidence, I actually made it around 40%,

After Corrie McKeague, it might be up to 45%

That's how life and death goes.

Thank you... So it's 40%

So according to you... Friends and family... Stranger abduction... Woke and wandered accounts fir only 40 % of the possibilities... So what's the other, 60 %....

What has your razor sharp mind come up with

[Vertigo Swirl]

Do I really need to trawl through your posts for this poo?   

Yes you really do.  You made a claim that has no basis in fact.  Once again you refuse point blank to accept your mistake and apologise.  I expected nothing more or less.

[Vertigo Swirl]

Thank you... So it's 40%

So according to you... Friends and family... Stranger abduction... Woke and wandered accounts fir only 40 % of the possibilities... So what's the other, 60 %....

What has your razor sharp mind come up with

Well I can come up with one
Vaporized by a freak weather occurrence within the room. 
And then I got stuck, as even beamed up by the Starship Enterprise would fall under the category of abduction.

[Mr Gray]

As Davel is grouping all possible scenarios the total probability will be 100%.

SiL appears to be building up scenarios which will be less than 100% though when added together with unknown scenarios will be 100%.

I don’t think there is an issue just 2 views on the same thing.

Could you explain what these unknown scenarios are... How can sil know about scenarios that are unknown ...and how can sil allocate 60% to these unknown scenarios... Doesn't sound very scientific to me

[ShiningInLuz]

Could you explain what these unknown scenarios are... How can sil know about scenarios that are unknown ...and how can sil allocate 60% to these unknown scenarios... Doesn't sound very scientific to me

That's how science works.

[Robittybob1]

You felt it was your job to explain to the moderators and I have asked him politely to pass the benefit of your wisdom on to the rest of us.  What’s the problem?

I have been asleep the last 6 hours so I'm coming into the conversation late.   Look I might look for it but it isn't well defined where it is.

[Robittybob1]

You must be blind


I tend to agree with Davel on this one: "This is statistics and when working out the probability of an event the sum off all possible events have to add up to 100%".

I do recall writing something like that.

[Vertigo Swirl]

That's how science works.

[Robittybob1]

The door slammed, the curtains went 'swish', the window & shutters were found open.
It has to be an abduction. There's no other possible scenario.

In your opinion.
I have a theory that accounts for all those and still there is no abduction from the apartment.

[Mr Gray]

That's how science works.

you dont seem to have aclue how science works...there are 3 basic options we know....yet you have assigned a 60% probablity to something you dont know exists..have no evidence it exists...and dont know what it is...that sounds more like religion than science.

[Robittybob1]

There is an issue because as far as anyone else can see there aren't any other major scenarios.... Sil hasn't built up anything and has made no suggestion as to what these, scenarios might be... As Jassi pointed out and you agreed it's basically three buckets... And these buckets must add up to 100....so sil is wrong

The ADMIN came on and said if Madeleine was dead and removed as a corpse it wasn't an abduction.  Maybe we need a bucket that includes that type of scenario as well.
Can you recall the 3 buckets again?  Do we need a fourth bucket?

[Mr Gray]

The ADMIN came on and said if Madeleine was dead and removed as a corpse it wasn't an abduction.  Maybe we need a bucket that includes that type of scenario as well.
Can you recall the 3 buckets again?  Do we need a fourth bucket?

no....murder by a stranger is include in an act by a stranger...

family or friends....woke and wandered...removed by a stranger...its quite clear..

jassi suggested..

1  She was removed by a stranger

2  She was removed by someone who was not a stranger

3 She removed herself and disappeared


thats fine...yet sil makes the bizarre claim that only represents 40 % of the possibilities

[Robittybob1]

no....murder by a stranger is include in an act by a stranger...

family or friends....woke and wandered...removed by a stranger...its quite clear..

jassi suggested..

1  She was removed by a stranger

2  She was removed by someone who was not a stranger

3 She removed herself and disappeared


thats fine...yet sil makes the bizarre claim that only represents 40 % of the possibilities

Not quite as SIL uses different words to describe the subgroups.  If he was to reply to your post then we might all agree on the descriptions of the 3 buckets, as we call them, to cover 100% of all likely eventualities.