what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?

[Vertigo Swirl]

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[Vertigo Swirl]

And btw you forgot to add the 1, it's actually 5.  Five apartments, not four.

Mate, I was following your teachings.

[Vertigo Swirl]

And btw you forgot to add the 1, it's actually 5.  Five apartments, not four.

Mate, I was following your teachings.

[Vertigo Swirl]

Blame the guy that made 4 +1 = 5. Not me!

I blame you for writing nonsense and then going back and changing your post after I commented on it.

[Vertigo Swirl]

You've lost me Cheeky, I not nearly as clever as you.  What are the odds now then?  Are we into the trillions yet?

[Mr Gray]

I'm on record calculating the odds as 4.25/1 billion against stranger abduction in PDL.
 
I've seen nothing to revise them for and await patiently on the results of the current investigation to determine those odds actual veracity. I'm in no rush for Jimmy to turn up, but the sooner he does, the sooner my odds will be proven to be nonsense or not.

I don't think you have explained yourself at all... Maddie disappeared ...there are 3 possibilities... Percentage wise how do you rate them... What percentage  abduction..

[Vertigo Swirl]

That's a mathematical impossibility because odds don't have three possibilities. Only two.

It's a thread about the odds. I have factored in the 80% chance for the five apartments and I have factored the 80% chance that they would pick the one night of the five to almost think about cancelling. Factor either out if you like, and your back to your 57,000,000/1. Whatever way you look at it, you're ALL in on the one.

That's the way it is. 

 

Describe all the possible reasons for Madeleine's disappearance.  As many or as few as you think.

[Mr Gray]

That's a mathematical impossibility because odds don't have three possibilities. Only two.

It's a thread about the odds. I have factored in the 80% chance for the five apartments and I have factored the 80% chance that they would pick the one night of the five to almost think about cancelling. Factor either out if you like, and your back to your 57,000,000/1. Whatever way you look at it, you're ALL in on the one.

That's the way it is. 

 

If there are three horses in a race they each have odds... I'm afraid you aren't making any sense, at all
The three possibilities would start at 33%  each and then be adjusted depending on the evidence to support each one

[Eleanor]

If there are three horses in a race they each have odds... I'm afraid you aren't making any sense, at all
The three possibilities would start at 33%  each and then be adjusted depending on the evidence to support each one

Three times 33 is only 99.  What about the other 333333 ad infinitum.

[Mr Gray]

He has just opened a forth possibly with that reply. How can there be four possibilities if Davel said there's only three? 
The missing 333333 must mean something .

He'd be better sticking to heads and tails IMO.

Nothing you are saying makes any sense.. I'll leave you to it

[Eleanor]

He has just opened a forth possibly with that reply. How can there be four possibilities if Davel said there's only three? 
The missing 333333 must mean something .

He'd be better sticking to heads and tails IMO.

So would you.  But I don't suppose that there is much chance of that.

[Eleanor]

See ya mate. I'm off anyway.

 

If only.  But I don't suppose there is much chance of that either.

[Eleanor]

It's doesn't seem to have dawned on you that I've been playing heads and tails all along.

The odds are either right or their wrong. But that's two possibilities, not three.

See ya 

Most of us had worked that out a long time ago.

[Parky41]

  Really?!

To infinity and beyond!

Odds, probabilities, certainties. Perhaps better expressed in likliehoods of whodunnit! A question with no definitive answer.

[Vertigo Swirl]

Chatting to Monkey is a little bit like being at the Madhatters Tea Party, and I mean that affectionately.