what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?

[Mr Gray]

Have you gone back to the three buckets of possibilities that add up to 100%?

And you've taken at stab in the dark and declared "Yes it is... At least more than 20 %", that is you estimate the probability of an abduction is more than 20%.  Did I get it right now?

I havent gone back tp anything...its always been 3 main possibilities...and its not a stab in the dark...we have evidence

[Mr Gray]

I don't know anything about the apartment other than it was searched. I'm not implying anything. I'm simply applying the mathematical system of apply odds to what we do KNOW happened. Bookmakers don't offer odds on those things that have happened, they offer odds on those things that CAN happen. There's a great value to knowing the odds on what DID happen in this case IMO.

It's all in SY yards hands. My odds say forget them producing an abductor, but SY say there's always the ONE. 

Tic-toc, tic-toc!

your odds are all wrong...there is no way that the odds taht maddie WAS abducted is 45 million to one

[Robittybob1]

I havent gone back tp anything...its always been 3 main possibilities...and its not a stab in the dark...we have evidence

Less than 12 hours ago you were telling me to stop nitpicking on Cheeky Monkey and his wild odds calculation.
What was that all about?   His calculations have nothing to do with the "3 main possibilities".

[Mr Gray]

57,000,000 was my conservative figure. Was there another UK child abducted abroad between Madeleine and Ben Needham?

your figure is the odds maddie WOULD BE abducted ,...not that she WAS abducted

[Mr Gray]

Less than 12 hours ago you were telling me to stop nitpicking on Cheeky Monkey and his wild odds calculation.
What was that all about?   His calculations have nothing to do with the "3 main possibilities".

yes they do....and the odds of abduction is the title of the thrad

[Robittybob1]

57,000,000 was my conservative figure. Was there another UK child abducted abroad between Madeleine and Ben Needham?

IMO There have been thousands of kidnappings over that time.  Most will be resolved in a day or so and hence we don't hear about them.  Don't ask for a cite it is opinion.

[Mr Gray]

Of course that's the odds but there is NO PROOF that she WAS abducted by a stranger abroad. If you have PROOF of that, then it's impossible to not factor it in and all the other odds out.

Don't pretend that PROOF that she was abducted exists, in the public domain. Opinion cannot factor anything into the odds. FACT!

ive never said there is proof....odds are all about opinion based on evidence

[Eleanor]

ive never said there is proof....odds are all about opinion based on evidence

And that is a Fact.

[Robittybob1]

Not one of British children on holiday abroad there's not. If there is show us it?

That will make a difference to the odds.


You can't factor opinions into the odds, only known facts. That's not my fault.

Think of all the child custody cases that go haywire and one parent abducts the children due to the myriad of reasons they have.  You can't tell me that never happens to "British children on holiday abroad".

[Mr Gray]

Statistical odds are calculated based on hard statistical facts.

Five apartments, the cadaver dog picked ONE is such a hard statistical fact. 4/1! No opinions involved.

that isnt how statistics work.....

[Robittybob1]

Statistical odds are calculated based on hard statistical KNOWN facts.

Five apartments, the cadaver dog picked ONE is such a hard statistical fact. 4/1! No opinions involved.

Yes there is for  I believe you are thinking the cadaver dogs alerted to the cadaver odour coming from Madeleine's cadaver.   That must be your opinion for it has never been a proven fact.

[Robittybob1]

Madeleine and Ben Needham were two UK children abducted by a stranger abroad giving the McCann's the benefit of the doubt. It's that category we are in because that's the accurate category to be in. Kate and Gerry weren't in a custody battle and neither had abducted their child. That's a different category all together. 

Stranger abduction abroad we're on here.

Well was it ever established that family situations didn't have a role to play in either case?  I think it is too early to say it is a "Stranger abduction abroad we're on here".

[Robittybob1]

In the odds the alerts weren't confirmed so can never be factored into the odds. The five apartments and the known fact the dog alerted to whatever it alerted to, is odds of 4/1 it would be the McCanns if it only alerted once and the same for all the the others. It still chose the McCanns, fact!#

It could have returned results of 3/2, 2/3, 1/4 but it never, it returned a result of 4/1 by ONLY alerting to the McCann's apartment.

But we don't know why, so I think your insistence to include them into the odds calculations, as evidence against an abduction, is in error.

[Robittybob1]

You think it's too early to say it's a stranger abduction abroad? My odds say that's never going to happen.

We'll see at the end of the investigation. My odds might yet prove to be testable.

We'll all be able to reassess our theories "at the end of the investigation".   We could be right or wrong to varying degrees.

[Robittybob1]

Did the dog alert in any of the other apartments other than the McCanns? There is a factual answer to that question.

I had a thread on this and I analysed the dog videos as they went through the apartments and the dog Eddie showed unusual behaviour in two of the other apartments IMO.

In the Payne's apartment there was a locked area they never checked.
In Russell's apartment there was  something under the bed Eddie wanted to check but it wasn't presented to him.

Lesser memory in Matt's apartment there was something else.  But I accepted it was just an object that Eddie showed a mild interest to.

It is such a mission to examine the hour long video.  Try it.