what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?

[The General]

four posters today suggesting the alerts may be meaningless

Yeh, OK. What? What did I sign up to?

[Mr Gray]

Odds. They can be a simplistic representation of probability. For simple people to digest.

only when all the facts are known...when they are not....opinions come into play

[The General]

But not much Fact.

Oh no. It's very much a fact. No opinion or bias. Just pure maths.

[Mr Gray]

Yeh, OK. What? What did I sign up to?

you didnt...you retained the right to be wrong...your choice

[Mr Gray]

Oh no. It's very much a fact. No opinion or bias. Just pure maths.

statistics isnt pure maths...its applied maths

[The General]

only when all the facts are known...when they are not....opinions come into play

That's not what you said.

ive never said there is proof....odds are all about opinion based on evidence

[Eleanor]

statistics isnt pure maths...its applied maths

Whoops.

[The General]

statistics isnt pure maths...its applied maths

pfft....semantics.
I didn't mean in the literal, academic sense, Prof.

[Mr Gray]

That's not what you said.

to a certain extent its semantics...I would say there is proof of abduction

[Robittybob1]

Not into my odds they don't? Known facts only, in the interest of accuracy.

But the fact is you keep on introducing "facts" that have no relationship to the odds you are calculating.

[Robittybob1]

to a certain extent its semantics...I would say there is proof of abduction

OK what proof, and has Cheeky Monkey included that fact in his calculation?

[Mr Gray]

They can be more than that. They can be factually exact if they are the odds taken of events that DID happen. That's the one's I'm using but they are turning out to be anything but simplistic for simple people to digest.

you are making several basic mistakes ...statistics give us a guide...is is not an exact science with which you can make predictions

[Mr Gray]

Odds are pure maths. It's an odds thread we are on.

basic error...odds are applied maths

[Mr Gray]

OK what proof, and has Cheeky Monkey included that fact in his calculation?

proof is not  precise word...thats where we need to dtart

[Mr Gray]

Pure fact.
5 apartments, one choice.
5 night's one choice
4 doors, one unlocked.
3 children, one NOT in a cot.

All facts.

and ll irrelevant to the odds ...the most relevant point is maddie .being left by her parents

both maddie and ben were unsupervised