what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?

[Mr Gray]

You seem to be getting the picture when it comes to the odds on what DID happen.

 

lets get this clear...maddie has disappeared...are you suggesting that the odds of her having been abducted are 50 million to one and that SY should realise this...if you are you are totally and completely wrong

[Mr Gray]

More than that, but yip that's what I'm saying. My odds will still be there when the case closes, I'd suggest that is the point for testing them out. There are two investigations working in tandem in an attempt to factor the ONE stranger abduction in. Your ONE is still in the running. 

your odds are totally wrong... the fact that maddie has dissapeared means the odds of abduction are   1 to single figures....ive explained why this is but you dont seem to have read the posts

[Lace]

Maybe Gerry wasn't using the 19 year Ben Needham rate because we don't know what happened. Fair doos, let's see where his 100,000,000/1 figure takes us when we factor all those other ONES in.


100,000,000 x 4 = 400,000,000 + 100,000,000 = 500,000,000 = 4 x 500,000,000 = 2,000,000,000 + 500,000,000 = 2,500,000,000 = 3 x 2,500,000,000 = 7,500,000,000 + 10,000,000,000 = 2 x 10,000,000,000 = 20,000,000,000 + 10,000,000,000 = 30,000,000,000.
5 apartments one choice = 4/1
5 nights, one choice = 4/1
4 PATIO doors, one unlocked = 3/1.
3 children, one not in a cot = 2/1


30,000,000,000/1.

I admit I don't understand odds.   Though I don't think they can be trusted.   They say Lightening doesn't strike in the same place twice and this has been found out to be wrong.

[Mr Gray]

You can explain till the cows come home, I've explained too, but the results of the investigation will ultimately decide on the veracity of those odds. FACT!

on elast time...if the odds for abduction are one in 50 million...what are teh odds for woke and wandered and parental involvement...your answer to taht question will prove you wrong...but you havent answered it...

[Mr Gray]

Show us where a child has ever woke and wandered without their body ever being discovered and we'll see what the odds say for woke and wandered in the same way we did for abduction by a stranger?

as I dont think you have a clue im not interested...sorry to be so  blunt

[slartibartfast]

Show us where a child has ever woke and wandered without their body ever being discovered and we'll see what the odds say for woke and wandered in the same way we did for abduction by a stranger?

First work out odds of a 4 year old leaving an unlocked apartment.

[slartibartfast]

Before you go any further, you need to give an example of ONE child who DID wake up, walked out and was never seen again, before you could factor that ONE example into the odds.

Bear that in mind. I'm using known facts of what DID happen to arrive at the odds.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing in this instance when it comes to accuracy.

Divide the activity in 2, leaving and not being found. Different set of odds for both.

[Robittybob1]

lets get this clear...maddie has disappeared...are you suggesting that the odds of her having been abducted are 50 million to one and that SY should realise this...if you are you are totally and completely wrong

of course Cheeky Monkey is wrong  30,000,000,000. - 30 Billion not  50 million. 

[Robittybob1]

on elast time...if the odds for abduction are one in 50 million...what are teh odds for woke and wandered and parental involvement...your answer to taht question will prove you wrong...but you havent answered it...

Just make up some figures and call them facts, multiply them together and you'll get the answer you want.

Think about it.  Madeleine is missing and the twins are not.  Her bed is empty but the cots are not.  Now according to Cheeky Monkey that adds proof to the likelihood Madeleine was abducted.  Yet the same observation would hold true for "woke and wandered and parental involvement" too. 

How silly can this forum get?

[The General]

of course Cheeky Monkey is wrong  30,000,000,000. - 30 Billion not  50 million.

What's 20 billion between friends?

[Robittybob1]

What's 20 billion between friends?

Not a lot of difference between 30 Billion and 50 million only 29,950 million places.

[Robittybob1]

5 apartments one choice = 4/1 FACT
5 nights, one choice = 4/1 FACT
4 PATIO doors, one unlocked = 3/1. FACT
3 children, one not in a cot = 2/1 FACT

Silly old Monkey? 

You said it, not me.

[Robittybob1]

Note for the woke and wandered theorists.

There is no woke and wandered in the odds without at least ONE example.
I think the odds are trying to tell you something. Time to work on another theory. 

How do you know Ben Needham didn't wake and wander?

[Holly Goodhead]

How do you know Ben Needham didn't wake and wander?

Because all concerned agree he was outside playing.

In any event is it important to identify a case where a child woke, wandered but no body found?  Surely the point is that no body has been found whether last seen in an inactive state (asleep in bed) or an active state (outside playing).

Here's a recent case where a child woke and wondered.  Sadly his body was found in the swmming pool.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9316282/british-boy-drowns-hotel-pool-kos/

[Holly Goodhead]

Because all concerned agree he was outside playing.

In any event is it important to identify a case where a child woke, wandered but no body found?  Surely the point is that no body has been found whether last seen in an inactive state (asleep in bed) or an active state (outside playing).

Here's a recent case where a child woke and wondered.  Sadly his body was found in the swmming pool.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9316282/british-boy-drowns-hotel-pool-kos/

I haven't read any of the frantic searches for MM involved the pool.  Is it possible someone covered up because MW were not following procedures by covering the pool if indeed it was left uncovered and/or procedures involved covering the pool?