what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?

[Robittybob1]

Because all concerned agree he was outside playing.

In any event is it important to identify a case where a child woke, wandered but no body found?  Surely the point is that no body has been found whether last seen in an inactive state (asleep in bed) or an active state (outside playing).

Here's a recent case where a child woke and wondered.  Sadly his body was found in the swmming pool.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/9316282/british-boy-drowns-hotel-pool-kos/

OK playing outside, he could therefore have had a short nap, then woke and wandered.  I think wandered is a definite possibility.
Woke wandered and then abducted is always a possible sequence.

[Robittybob1]

I haven't read any of the frantic searches for MM involved the pool.  Is it possible someone covered up because MW were not following procedures by covering the pool if indeed it was left uncovered and/or procedures involved covering the pool?

Gerry is seen by Tapas Restaurant staff searching the pools.   
In the missing child procedure activated by the OC staff the areas to be searched were allocated to various unnamed people.  I think it would be unlikely that the pool was missed out.

[ShiningInLuz]

I haven't read any of the frantic searches for MM involved the pool.  Is it possible someone covered up because MW were not following procedures by covering the pool if indeed it was left uncovered and/or procedures involved covering the pool?

Keep reading Kate's book.  From memory, I think that is one source of Gerry went to the Tapas Zone and checked there.

The issue with the MW structured searches is I don't know which areas of Luz were searched.  One assumes that would mean they checked all pools on the complex, but the simple fact is I cannot be certain.

I have never read or seen any evidence that the OC pools could be covered.  It's not standard practice in the Algarve.

 

[Holly Goodhead]

OK playing outside, he could therefore have had a short nap, then woke and wandered.  I think wandered is a definite possibility.
Woke wandered and then abducted is always a possible sequence.

Well if he had a short nap he must have dozed off outside.  This does not seem to fit with the known facts.

I agree it is possible woke, wandered and came to some harm.  KM dismisses this idea as she refers to MM as a 3 year old, whereas in reality she was a few days off 4, who would in her opinion be unable to pull the curtains, slide the patio door, open the child gate and close it and open the gate to road and close it.  According to KM she also found the bedroom shutters up, window open and curtains flapping which had all been left closed hence she will not entertain any other theory other than abduction. 

Children do not open full length curtains.  They find the gap and move along underneath so no problem there.  KM does not say MM could not reach handles etc just in her opinion MM would not be able to slide the doors, open the gates and leave returning everything to its rightful place ie closed etc.  However throughout the book she repeats numerous times MM was very intelligent, knowing and advanced for her years. 

In my experience children are like sponges soaking up everything going on around and are far more knowing than many adults give them credit for.  MM would undoubtedly observe what KM/GM did when leaving and could simply have copied.  Why not if she is/was as intelligent as KM states in her book?

Has a child psychologist ever offered up opinion about any other aspect of this case? 

[Holly Goodhead]

Is it possible/impossible MM opened the shutters/windows and climbed out?  Is it possible/impossible MM left via the front door? 

Was MM's height and arm measurements obtained to see if she was able to reach the height of handles? 

[ShiningInLuz]

Well if he had a short nap he must have dozed off outside.  This does not seem to fit with the known facts.

I agree it is possible woke, wandered and came to some harm.  KM dismisses this idea as she refers to MM as a 3 year old, whereas in reality she was a few days off 4, who would in her opinion be unable to pull the curtains, slide the patio door, open the child gate and close it and open the gate to road and close it.  According to KM she also found the bedroom shutters up, window open and curtains flapping which had all been left closed hence she will not entertain any other theory other than abduction. 

Children do not open full length curtains.  They find the gap and move along underneath so no problem there.  KM does not say MM could not reach handles etc just in her opinion MM would not be able to slide the doors, open the gates and leave returning everything to its rightful place ie closed etc.  However throughout the book she repeats numerous times MM was very intelligent, knowing and advanced for her years. 

In my experience children are like sponges soaking up everything going on around and are far more knowing than many adults give them credit for.  MM would undoubtedly observe what KM/GM did when leaving and could simply have copied.  Why not if she is/was as intelligent as KM states in her book?

Has a child psychologist ever offered up opinion about any other aspect of this case?

May I ask if you are asserting you have experience/knowledge of child psychology?

[Holly Goodhead]

How many have refused to answer police questions when made a suspect?  Impossible to quantify again.

Career criminals spring to mind 'No comment'!

[Mr Gray]

Is it possible/impossible MM opened the shutters/windows and climbed out?  Is it possible/impossible MM left via the front door? 

Was MM's height and arm measurements obtained to see if she was able to reach the height of handles?

The PJ archiving report says woke and wandered was highly unlikely... Not just unlikely but highly unlikely. Do they have evidence to support that... It would be interesting to know on what basis they made that statement

[Holly Goodhead]

How many after a few days have launched a fund to pay for mainly legal expenditure. Another impossible to quantify.

And there are those among us who think my odds are crazy? We'll see about how crazy they are soon enough!

How many get a 1 to 1 with the pope?  And get a free return flight to Vatican city courtesy of Philip Green's private jet?  And have David Beckham and Christiano Ronaldo make appeals for their missing abducted child?

Lets get number crunching...

[The General]

Is it possible/impossible MM opened the shutters/windows and climbed out?  Is it possible/impossible MM left via the front door? 

Was MM's height and arm measurements obtained to see if she was able to reach the height of handles?

The concept of path of least resistance is innate.
The patio door was open.

[ShiningInLuz]

Is it possible/impossible MM opened the shutters/windows and climbed out?  Is it possible/impossible MM left via the front door? 

Was MM's height and arm measurements obtained to see if she was able to reach the height of handles?

If you comb the files and photos, you will find ...

Both Kate and Gerry's statements say MBM was 90cm.  There was an inflatable put up on Luz beach describing her as 90cm.

I have an issue with that.  Based on UK figures for girls turning 4, she should have been around 1.02m, even if she was petite.

Based on the same source, she should have weighed 12kg to 16kg, again even is she was petite.

The latter suggest the Tanner sighting was not MBM.  Carrying 12 to 16kg in a crane posture is a back-breaker.

I have not yet breached Fortress Rothley to ascertain why 90cm was used.  Guests, please note there is more than one innocent explanation for this.

[Mr Gray]

Career criminals spring to mind 'No comment'!

Colin stagg was, another no comment when it was realised the police were trying to stitch him up

[Holly Goodhead]

May I ask if you are asserting you have experience/knowledge of child psychology?

I did a psychology course back in the 80's which covered child development and have experience of my own now teenage and adult children which doesn't really make my opinions any more valid than anyone else's. 

But I do think it would be helpful to have expert opinion from a qualified child psychologist.  I'm about to do some ironing whilst I listen to a McCann docu I uploaded the other day - the dispatches C4 one - I recall a David Canter who from memory was some sort of criminal profiler/psychologist but I think what is required is an all out child psychologist maybe talking to those who knew MM not just her parents but the wider family, T7 etc to build up a picture of what she may well have done if she did wake up.  Bearing in mind this was a different situation for her; normally if she woke at home and wanted her parents they were there.  Here she was in a new environment where her parents were unavailable.  According to Mrs Fenn and MM herself she did wake and her needs went unmet eg 'Where were you when Shaun and I were crying'.  She has already learned if she needs her parents they are unavailable in this place so what does she do? 

If this has not been done it begs the question why not?

[slartibartfast]

How many after a few days have launched a fund to pay for mainly legal expenditure. Another impossible to quantify.

And there are those among us who think my odds are crazy? We'll see about how crazy they are soon enough!

I would tend to use probabilities. Associated with :-

Item
Dog Alerts
Wiped Cell Phone records
Inconsistent Statements
Deep Sleeping Twins
Refusing to Answer Questions
Refusing to do reconstruction
Leaving PDL quickly after saying would never leave
Excessive use of Litigation
Body Language
Unrestricted Fund
Smith Sighting
Crying in the Night
Leaving Twins for extended periods (plus to raise alarm)

[Holly Goodhead]

The concept of path of least resistance is innate.
The patio door was open.

Unlocked but then she had to open the child gate and gate leading onto road all of which the McCanns said they closed and KM said she found closed at her 10pm check.