what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?

[The General]

You have to seperate the two incidents...would be abducted...was abducted, thats the mistake monkey made

Was abducted, how's that relevant? As we've seen from those who aren't grasping, a pigeon flew in through a pigeon-shaped hole in a window and escaped unscathed - 14.21 million to one, thus proving the near impossible possible? No. Thus the '1' occurred. Try replicating it. Could take up to 14 million flights.

[Mr Gray]

Was abducted, how's that relevant? As we've seen from those who aren't grasping, a pigeon flew in through a pigeon-shaped hole in a window and escaped unscathed - 14.21 million to one, thus proving the near impossible possible? No. Thus the '1' occurred. Try replicating it. Could take up to 14 million flights.

of course the one occurred...that doesnt make the abduction theory a 14 million to  one outsider..if you think it does then its you who doesnt understand

[The General]

of course the one occurred...that doesnt make the abduction theory a 14 million to  one outsider..if you think it does then its you who doesnt understand

Who said it did, apart from Gerry?
I think it's you who doesn't understand my understanding.

[Mr Gray]

Who said it did, apart from Gerry?
I think it's you who doesn't understand my understanding.

Then simply make your point clear and the there can be no understanding. It was highly unlikely maddie would be abducted......that doesnt mean its highly unlikeley she was abducted...do you agree with that

[Vertigo Swirl]

There are three possibilities regarding what happened

death and parental cover up
woke and wandered
abducted

If the odds of the last are millions to one, what are the odds of the other two, and based on what?

[The General]

There are three possibilities regarding what happened

death and parental cover up
woke and wandered
abducted

If the odds of the last are millions to one, what are the odds of the other two, and based on what?

We've established Gerry could have dramatically reduced those odds if he'd have locked the door as a minimum control measure. There are others that would reduce those odds down exponentially, having a much more significant impact.
The odds? Before or after?

[Vertigo Swirl]

We've established Gerry could have dramatically reduced those odds if he'd have locked the door as a minimum control measure. There are others that would reduce those odds down exponentially, having a much more significant impact.
The odds? Before or after?

After of course

[The General]

After of course

After? Infinitesimally small, as it had come to fruition.

[Vertigo Swirl]

After? Infinitesimally small, as it had come to fruition.

Eh?

[Miss Taken Identity]

Was abducted, how's that relevant? As we've seen from those who aren't grasping, a pigeon flew in through a pigeon-shaped hole in a window and escaped unscathed - 14.21 million to one, thus proving the near impossible possible? No. Thus the '1' occurred. Try replicating it. Could take up to 14 million flights.

 And therein lies  the offering of the odds.  When people place bets they look for all sorts of favorable traits. The horse breed,  the trainer/the stable/previous wins in different grounds.

#1 How many children were abducted from their beds in PDL in past 10 years
#2 Leaving door unlocked
#3 leaving children alone every night
#4 not carrying out physical checks on the children
#5 children  waking up crying and knowing parents are not int he apartment

Very highly likely a disappearance- 
looking at the odds on Number 1  abduction from bed extremely unlikely
looking at the rest-very  highly likely -woke and wandered

[The General]

Eh?

You wanted the odds for these two:

death and parental cover up
woke and wandered

Given that MM was now 'missing', then the odds of her succumbing to either of the two above after that fact are now nil. Unless, if she woke and wandered, she then woke and wandered again, I suppose.

[Mr Gray]

You wanted the odds for these two:

death and parental cover up
woke and wandered

Given that MM was now 'missing', then the odds of her succumbing to either of the two above after that fact are now nil. Unless, if she woke and wandered, she then woke and wandered again, I suppose.

you sound very confused...the inability to give a straight answer. No one on the forum had the guts to give what they thought were the likely odds for the three scenarios...apart from myself of course. 3 basic scenarios and the odds/probability  have to add up to unity...have a go

[The General]

you sound very confused...the inability to give a straight answer. No one on the forum had the guts to give what they thought were the likely odds for the three scenarios...apart from myself of course. 3 basic scenarios and the odds/probability  have to add up to unity...have a go

That wasn't the question. VS wanted to know the odds of.....whatever it was she wanted to know the odds of after the event. There's no confusion there for me, the odds are negligible given these parameters, as MM was 'gone' and replicating it after the fact is impossible.
I think you're getting mixed up with before and after.

[Vertigo Swirl]

You wanted the odds for these two:

death and parental cover up
woke and wandered

Given that MM was now 'missing', then the odds of her succumbing to either of the two above after that fact are now nil. Unless, if she woke and wandered, she then woke and wandered again, I suppose.

What?

[Mr Gray]

That wasn't the question. VS wanted to know the odds of.....whatever it was she wanted to know the odds of after the event. There's no confusion there for me, the odds are negligible given these parameters, as MM was 'gone' and replicating it after the fact is impossible.
I think you're getting mixed up with before and after.

im not ...what are the odds of the three possibiliteis..

parental involvement...1% but probbaly less
woke and wandered....a generous 20% ...given the fact the archiving report said highly unlikely...
abduction...79% by default