Missing children and the statistics.

[Brietta]

What can I say then, if you are of the opinion none of the extensive analysis of the cases and the formation of the Missing Children stats has any relationship to the McCann case.

Have you considered Madeleine maybe one of the very few who are abducted by a stranger, it is rare but it does happen at the rate of 1 in 10,000 cases (USA figures).  We can't rule that out.
In fact Madeleine fits into the rarest category - the unknown cause.

There are British statistics for stranger abduction the most up to date of which show an alarming increasing trend.

In my opinion I think you may be concentrating too much on entirely the wrong statistics and the wrong analysis which perhaps may or may not owe much to McCann hostile fora.
The stats for stranger abduction are easy to find as are the stats for solved cases sometimes ending in the recovery of the victim alive but more often not.

Perhaps it is owed to this forum to have a look at more ground breaking and relative information uncontaminated by the mistakes of the past.

[slartibartfast]

There are British statistics for stranger abduction the most up to date of which show an alarming increasing trend.

In my opinion I think you may be concentrating too much on entirely the wrong statistics and the wrong analysis which perhaps may or may not owe much to McCann hostile fora.
The stats for stranger abduction are easy to find as are the stats for solved cases sometimes ending in the recovery of the victim alive but more often not.

Perhaps it is owed to this forum to have a look at more ground breaking and relative information uncontaminated by the mistakes of the past.

The first step is to work out what incidents are contained within your population.

[jassi]

There are British statistics for stranger abduction the most up to date of which show an alarming increasing trend.

In my opinion I think you may be concentrating too much on entirely the wrong statistics and the wrong analysis which perhaps may or may not owe much to McCann hostile fora.
The stats for stranger abduction are easy to find as are the stats for solved cases sometimes ending in the recovery of the victim alive but more often not.

Perhaps it is owed to this forum to have a look at more ground breaking and relative information uncontaminated by the mistakes of the past.

What is an increasingly worrying trend ?  What magnitude of increase are you talking about?

[Brietta]

What is an increasingly worrying trend ?  What magnitude of increase are you talking about?

Comparison of data from the published returns from 2012/13 and 2013/14 were compared with the figures provided for 2014/15 as a result of a FOI request to every police force in the UK made by "Action Against Abduction".

For 2014/15 it was found that in England, Northern Ireland and Wales in total there were 1,141 kidnapping and child abduction offences recorded.

Increases in non-parental child abductions were recorded at 47% and non-parental child kidnapping at 18%.

In my opinion those are huge increases in a short space of time which cannot be accounted for by a change in recording procedures.  It is a crime which is on the increase and any increase in crime targeted at children is a worrying trend indeed as far as I am concerned.

http://childabduction.org.uk/index.php/publications/police-recorded-child-abduction-and-kidnapping-2013-to-2016

[jassi]

Comparison of data from the published returns from 2012/13 and 2013/14 were compared with the figures provided for 2014/15 as a result of a FOI request to every police force in the UK made by "Action Against Abduction".

For 2014/15 it was found that in England, Northern Ireland and Wales in total there were 1,141 kidnapping and child abduction offences recorded.

Increases in non-parental child abductions were recorded at 47% and non-parental child kidnapping at 18%.

In my opinion those are huge increases in a short space of time which cannot be accounted for by a change in recording procedures.  It is a crime which is on the increase and any increase in crime targeted at children is a worrying trend indeed as far as I am concerned.

http://childabduction.org.uk/index.php/publications/police-recorded-child-abduction-and-kidnapping-2013-to-2016

From the report quoted.

Why has non‐parental child abduction increased?
15 police forces were asked to provide further information about why non‐parental child
abductions had increased in their area. Responses were received from 13 (many offering more
than one reason).

● 11 indicated that improvements in the response to Child Sexual Exploitation (CSE) had
contributed to the increase. Greater awareness and training wasreported to have led to more
offences been reported and to police being more likely to record an offence. Some police
forces suggested that a greater use of Child Abduction Warning Notices may have led to an
increase in offences recorded.

● Five police forces provided data on the proportion of non‐parental child abductions which
involved CSE in 2014/15: four ranged from 65 to 78 per cent; one was 42 per cent. Two police
forces provided comparable data for the previous year. One police force reported that the
proportion of CSE cases had increased from 37 per cent in 2013/14 to 67 per cent in 2014/15
(albeit with relatively low numbers). The other police force reported an increase from 54 per
cent in 2013/14 to 65 per cent in 2014/15 (with much larger numbers).  

● Eight police forcessuggested improvementsin crime recording and greater adherence to the
National Crime Recording Standard guidelines had impacted on the number of offences
recorded. Many police forces stressed that, as a result, the number of offences better reflects
the true scale of the problem. Two police forces suggested that stricter crime recording
processes may have ensured that incidents which would previously have not met an
‘evidential’ threshold to be recorded were now been recorded as a crime.  

● Two police forces indicated that a recent focus on intervening in cases of forced marriage
may have increased the number of non‐parental child abductions recorded, although neither
offered any quantitative analysis.  


Maybe a lot to do with the way these things are now recorded, rather that a staggering increase in actual cases.

[Carana]

Am I the only person who thinks that what the police officer wrote down for her statement could be a misunderstanding?

"She first found them aggressive and their reaction after she showed Madeleine's parents her credentials, also seemed strange to her. Afterwards she was informed that there were no signs of a break-in in the apartment. Knowing that they are doctors she found it absolutely abnormal that they left their children alone at home. Associating all of this with her professional experience, which tells her that in 99.99 % of missing children cases, the parents or other family members are involved, she felt it was her duty to inform the police of this."

[Carana]

Has anyone found reliable Portuguese statistics of missing children?

[Eleanor]

Am I the only person who thinks that what the police officer wrote down for her statement could be a misunderstanding?

"She first found them aggressive and their reaction after she showed Madeleine's parents her credentials, also seemed strange to her. Afterwards she was informed that there were no signs of a break-in in the apartment. Knowing that they are doctors she found it absolutely abnormal that they left their children alone at home. Associating all of this with her professional experience, which tells her that in 99.99 % of missing children cases, the parents or other family members are involved, she felt it was her duty to inform the police of this."

Do we actually have to consider the opinion of Yvonne Martin?  Who ultimately proved nothing at all.  Beyond a penchant for sending anonymous letters.

This in itself was disgusting, and totally unprofessional.  God might help the rest of the families that she had to deal with.

I hope that she was censored.

[Robittybob1]

Am I the only person who thinks that what the police officer wrote down for her statement could be a misunderstanding?

"She first found them aggressive and their reaction after she showed Madeleine's parents her credentials, also seemed strange to her. Afterwards she was informed that there were no signs of a break-in in the apartment. Knowing that they are doctors she found it absolutely abnormal that they left their children alone at home. Associating all of this with her professional experience, which tells her that in 99.99 % of missing children cases, the parents or other family members are involved, she felt it was her duty to inform the police of this."

Yes I have agreed with you the word should have been "abducted" not "missing" but we can only attribute that to Yvonne as she read her statement and signed it, unless there is a translation error in the Portuguese back to English.  Is the word in the Portuguese PJ statement "missing"?

[Carana]

Do we actually have to consider the opinion of Yvonne Martin?  Who ultimately proved nothing at all.  Beyond a penchant for sending anonymous letters.

This in itself was disgusting, and totally unprofessional.  God might help the rest of the families that she had to deal with.

I hope that she was censored.

Until proven otherwise, I think the "anonymous letter" is probably an online form sent to Crimestoppers. I have no problem with that.

I find it highly unlikely that she'd have actually stated that in 99.9% of missing child cases that parents or family are involved. That can't possibly be correct: kids of all ages, including teens who skip class long enough to be reported as "missing".

Or the police officer misunderstood.

I always get the flak when I raise the issue that what a police officer wrote may not necessarily be what the person said, but I'd still be interested if anyone has a more logical potential explanation.

[slartibartfast]

Until proven otherwise, I think the "anonymous letter" is probably an online form sent to Crimestoppers. I have no problem with that.

I find it highly unlikely that she'd have actually stated that in 99.9% of missing child cases that parents or family are involved. That can't possibly be correct: kids of all ages, including teens who skip class long enough to be reported as "missing".

Or the police officer misunderstood.

I always get the flak when I raise the issue that what a police officer wrote may not necessarily be what the person said, but I'd still be interested if anyone has a more logical potential explanation.

As per post #61, can’t compare apples and oranges.

[Eleanor]

Until proven otherwise, I think the "anonymous letter" is probably an online form sent to Crimestoppers. I have no problem with that.

I find it highly unlikely that she'd have actually stated that in 99.9% of missing child cases that parents or family are involved. That can't possibly be correct: kids of all ages, including teens who skip class long enough to be reported as "missing".

Or the police officer misunderstood.

I always get the flak when I raise the issue that what a police officer wrote may not necessarily be what the person said, but I'd still be interested if anyone has a more logical potential explanation.

I bow to your greater kindness.  But I am not interested in what Yvonne Martin might have said.  The fact remains that she suspected The McCanns on Day One when she had no proof of anything.
For a Professional this is simply not good enough.

[Robittybob1]

I bow to your greater kindness.  But I am not interested in what Yvonne Martin might have said.  The fact remains that she suspected The McCanns on Day One when she had no proof of anything.
For a Professional this is simply not good enough.

You don't have to have proof to suspect someone you just need suspicion.

[Robittybob1]

As per post #61, can’t compare apples and oranges.

not #61

[Eleanor]

You don't have to have proof to suspect someone you just need suspicion.

Only if you are a Police Officer involved in The Case.  But even they keep their mouths shut.

I remain entirely appalled by this woman.