Author Topic: Could Madeleine have been abducted between 9.30 and 10.00?  (Read 62423 times)

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Rachel Granada

  • Guest
Re: Could Madeleine have been abducted between 9.30 and 10.00?
« Reply #180 on: April 13, 2013, 11:40:03 PM »
LOL! What is this fabled evidence, then, C ED? Face facts, if they were so guilty the combined might of the PT and UK police would have snared them.  Only they didn't because to echo the words of the PT Attorney General "there was no evidence of the practice of any crime".

Is that clear enough for you?

AnneGuedes

  • Guest
Re: Could Madeleine have been abducted between 9.30 and 10.00?
« Reply #181 on: April 14, 2013, 01:25:23 AM »
...the moment I begin to prove that Gerry McCann could not possibly have been down the town that night by reference to independent witnesses...
John, could you please finish proving (I'm no believer) !

Offline Gildas

Re: Could Madeleine have been abducted between 9.30 and 10.00?
« Reply #182 on: April 14, 2013, 10:11:06 AM »
Debunker posted:

Dogs are at best only 90% accurate in ideal circumstances, less in the real world. Because two alerts/non-alerts are required, the maximum for such an ID is 80%. Dogs also make serial errors.

Debunker, where did you get the figure of 90% from ?  I have been calculating probabilities using this figure, but I remember reading somewhere that Eddie was  100% reliable. I would like to work out the reliability when two dogs are involved, but it would be a waste of time, if the initial figure were incorrect.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2013, 10:13:25 AM by Gildas »
T

C.Edwards

  • Guest
Re: Could Madeleine have been abducted between 9.30 and 10.00?
« Reply #183 on: April 14, 2013, 10:31:54 AM »
It's not about the size of the mountain if the evidence - sorry, I keep forgetting - admissible evidence is circumstantial. If the AG currently doesn't think there's enough evidence to secure a conviction, he's not going to get them charged until he feels there is.  I don't know how I can put it any more simply. Before you say, "this is the same AG who found no practise of any crime, etc." yes, it is the same one. The same one who also said this in his archiving summary but it tends to be ignored/forgotten about by those of you who have pink candyfloss in your eyes.

Quote
E – About the interest of the reconstruction
 
Taking into account that there were certain points in the arguidos' and witnesses' statements that revealed, apparently at least, contradiction or that lacked physical confirmation, it was decided to carry out the "reconstruction of the fact", a diligence that is consecrated in article 150 of the Penal Process Code in the sense of duly clarifying, on the very location of the facts, the following very important details, among others:
 
1 – The physical, real and effective proximity between Jane Tanner, Gerald McCann and Jeremy Wilkins, at the moment when the first person walked by them, and which coincided with the sighting of the supposed suspect, carrying a child. It results, in our perspective, strange that neither Gerald McCann nor Jeremy Wilkins saw her, or the alleged abductor, despite the exiguity of the space and the peacefulness of the area;
 
2 – The situation concerning the window to the bedroom where Madeleine slept, together with the twins, which was open, according to Kate. It seemed then necessary to clarify if there was a draught, since movement of the curtains and pressure under the bedroom door are mentioned, which, eventually, could be verified through the reconstitution;
 
3 – The establishment of a timeline and of a line of effective checking on the minors that were left alone in the apartments, given that, if it is believed that such checking was as tight as the witnesses and the arguidos describe it, it would be, at least, very difficult to reunite conditions for the introduction of an abductor in the residence and the posterior exit of said abductor, with the child, namely through a window with scarce space. It is added that the supposed abductor could only pass, through that window, holding the minor in a different position (vertical) from the one that witness JANE TANNER saw (horizontal);
 
4 – What happened during the time lapse between approximately 6.45/7 p.m. – the time at which MADELEINE was seen for the last time, in her apartment, by a different person (David Payne) from her parents or siblings – and the time at which the disappearance is reported by Kate Healy – at around 10 p.m.;
 
5 – The obvious and well-known advantages of immediate appreciation of evidence, or in other words, the fulfilment of the principle of contiguity of evidence in order to form a conviction, as firm as possible, about what was seen by Jane Tanner and the other interposers, and, eventually, to dismiss once and for all any doubts that may subsist concerning the innocence of the missing [child's] parents.
 
In this sense, the legal procedures were followed, according to the norms and conventions that are in force, and the appearance of the witnesses was requested, inviting them to be present inclusively appealing to solidarity with the McCann couple, as it is certain that since the beginning they adhered to that process diligence.
 
Nevertheless, despite national authorities assuming all measures to render their trip to Portugal viable, for unknown motives, after the many doubts that they raised about the necessity and opportunity of their trip were clarified several times, they chose not to attend, which rendered the diligence inviable.
 
We believe that the main damage was caused to the McCann arguidos, who lost the possibility to prove what they have protested since they were constituted arguidos: their innocence towards the fateful event; the investigation was also disturbed, because said facts remain unclarified.
 
in: Processo 201/07.0 GALGS - Volume XVII - pages 4636-4638 (Public Prosecutor's Archiving Dispatch)

Offline Carana

Re: Could Madeleine have been abducted between 9.30 and 10.00?
« Reply #184 on: April 14, 2013, 11:04:43 AM »
Debunker posted:

Dogs are at best only 90% accurate in ideal circumstances, less in the real world. Because two alerts/non-alerts are required, the maximum for such an ID is 80%. Dogs also make serial errors.

Debunker, where did you get the figure of 90% from ?  I have been calculating probabilities using this figure, but I remember reading somewhere that Eddie was  100% reliable. I would like to work out the reliability when two dogs are involved, but it would be a waste of time, if the initial figure were incorrect.


Concerning Eddie:
From Grime's profile:
In six years operational deployment in over 200 cases the dog has never alerted to meat based foodstuffs.

The dog has never alerted to 'road kill'


http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MARTIN_GRIMES_PERSONAL.htm

From his report:
'False' positives are always a possibility; to date Eddie has not so indicated
operationally or in training. In six years of operational deployment in over 200
criminal case searches the dog has never alerted to meat based and
specifically pork foodstuffs designed for human consumption. Similarly the
dog has never alerted to 'road kill', that is any other dead animal.


From elsewhere in that report:
'Eddie' The Enhanced Victim Recovery Dog (E.V.R.D.) will search for and
locate human remains and body fluids including blood in any environment or
terrain. The initial training of the dog was conducted using human blood and
stil born decomposing piglets. The importance of this is that the dog is
introduced to the scent of a decomposing body NOT FOODSTUFF. This
ensures that the dog disregards the 'bacon sandwich' and 'kebab' etc that is
ever present in the background environment. Therefore the dog would
remain efficient searching for a cadaver in a café where the clientele were sat
eating bacon sandwiches.

http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MARTIN_GRIMES.htm

In his profile he refers to cases, but in the report he clarifies that he is referring to 200 case searches.

What is referring to by "false positives"? My understanding is that he means Eddie had never reacted to meat-based foodstuffs (e.g., a bacon sandwich) or roadkill. Reacting to any decomposing human material within his training parameters would not be a false positive (e.g. the post-sex tissues in Jersey).




ferryman

  • Guest
Re: Could Madeleine have been abducted between 9.30 and 10.00?
« Reply #185 on: April 14, 2013, 11:17:26 AM »
Carana:

In his profile he refers to cases, but in the report he clarifies that he is referring to 200 case searches.

I would dispute that that is 'clarification'.

I think that case searches is synonymous with cases.

For example, the combined effort to find Madeleine could be regarded as a single case or a single case search.

Beyond dispute, in the arguido interviews, it was put to Kate and Gerry that 'Eddie had never been wrong in over 200 cases'.

ETA: You can't equate case searches with cases, but you can the other way.

That is to say that individual searches within a case cannot be counted as 'cases', but you can the other way.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2013, 11:25:47 AM by ferryman »

Offline sadie

Re: Could Madeleine have been abducted between 9.30 and 10.00?
« Reply #186 on: April 14, 2013, 11:25:30 AM »
It's not about the size of the mountain if the evidence - sorry, I keep forgetting - admissible evidence is circumstantial. If the AG currently doesn't think there's enough evidence to secure a conviction, he's not going to get them charged until he feels there is.  I don't know how I can put it any more simply. Before you say, "this is the same AG who found no practise of any crime, etc." yes, it is the same one. The same one who also said this in his archiving summary but it tends to be ignored/forgotten about by those of you who have pink candyfloss in your eyes.

Quote
E – About the interest of the reconstruction
 
Taking into account that there were certain points in the arguidos' and witnesses' statements that revealed, apparently at least, contradiction or that lacked physical confirmation, it was decided to carry out the "reconstruction of the fact", a diligence that is consecrated in article 150 of the Penal Process Code in the sense of duly clarifying, on the very location of the facts, the following very important details, among others:
 
1 – The physical, real and effective proximity between Jane Tanner, Gerald McCann and Jeremy Wilkins, at the moment when the first person walked by them, and which coincided with the sighting of the supposed suspect, carrying a child. It results, in our perspective, strange that neither Gerald McCann nor Jeremy Wilkins saw her, or the alleged abductor, despite the exiguity of the space and the peacefulness of the area;
 
2 – The situation concerning the window to the bedroom where Madeleine slept, together with the twins, which was open, according to Kate. It seemed then necessary to clarify if there was a draught, since movement of the curtains and pressure under the bedroom door are mentioned, which, eventually, could be verified through the reconstitution;
 
3 – The establishment of a timeline and of a line of effective checking on the minors that were left alone in the apartments, given that, if it is believed that such checking was as tight as the witnesses and the arguidos describe it, it would be, at least, very difficult to reunite conditions for the introduction of an abductor in the residence and the posterior exit of said abductor, with the child, namely through a window with scarce space. It is added that the supposed abductor could only pass, through that window, holding the minor in a different position (vertical) from the one that witness JANE TANNER saw (horizontal);
 
4 – What happened during the time lapse between approximately 6.45/7 p.m. – the time at which MADELEINE was seen for the last time, in her apartment, by a different person (David Payne) from her parents or siblings – and the time at which the disappearance is reported by Kate Healy – at around 10 p.m.;
 
5 – The obvious and well-known advantages of immediate appreciation of evidence, or in other words, the fulfilment of the principle of contiguity of evidence in order to form a conviction, as firm as possible, about what was seen by Jane Tanner and the other interposers, and, eventually, to dismiss once and for all any doubts that may subsist concerning the innocence of the missing [child's] parents.
 
In this sense, the legal procedures were followed, according to the norms and conventions that are in force, and the appearance of the witnesses was requested, inviting them to be present inclusively appealing to solidarity with the McCann couple, as it is certain that since the beginning they adhered to that process diligence.
 
Nevertheless, despite national authorities assuming all measures to render their trip to Portugal viable, for unknown motives, after the many doubts that they raised about the necessity and opportunity of their trip were clarified several times, they chose not to attend, which rendered the diligence inviable.
 
We believe that the main damage was caused to the McCann arguidos, who lost the possibility to prove what they have protested since they were constituted arguidos: their innocence towards the fateful event; the investigation was also disturbed, because said facts remain unclarified.
 
in: Processo 201/07.0 GALGS - Volume XVII - pages 4636-4638 (Public Prosecutor's Archiving Dispatch)

There are things about this 'document' that dont read right to me.  I have tried to google it, to check, but every website except two is Jill Haverns, aimoo, or Joana Morais.  It is reputed that at least one of those alters facts.  I do not know whether this is true, but I dont trust them.

The google page is flooded with Jill Havern pages and Joana Morais pages ... WHAT IS GOING ON?


Interestingly the only other two sites do not work.  These are:

1) Regrets and Ramblings, which I do trust .... but it takes you to another page?  Despite Google specifying it, there is nothing about this document on that page.  So why is there nothing on this page about this document when Google seems to think there is?  [Bren if you are reading, pls could you confirm, or otherwise, whether this document should have been there.  Catkins and Cath have my email address. ]

2) https://99.153.248.206:8888/freenet.../maddie.../pj-final-report.html which opens to "Internet Explorer cannot display the webpage"

So no-one can get an independant, as opposed to anti, copy of this document


JUST WHAT IS GOING ON?  Seems. once again, evidence is being supressed .. or altered


I hope I am wrong ... cos it is extemely dangerous to us all if I am right ... so many "facts" are being altered....  think Pat Brown especially.

Offline faithlilly

Re: Could Madeleine have been abducted between 9.30 and 10.00?
« Reply #187 on: April 14, 2013, 11:26:40 AM »
Carana:

In his profile he refers to cases, but in the report he clarifies that he is referring to 200 case searches.

I would dispute that that is 'clarification'.

I think that case searches is synonymous with cases.

For example, the combined effort to find Madeleine could be regarded as a single case or a single case search.



Beyond dispute, in the arguido interviews, it was put to Kate and Gerry that 'Eddie had never been wrong in over 200 cases'.

Interesting that the chance of translation errors are used as an excuse when it suits but disregarded when it doesn't .
Brietta posted on 10/04/2022 “But whether or not that is the reason behind the delay I am certain that Brueckner's trial is going to take place.”

Let’s count the months, shall we?

Offline sadie

Re: Could Madeleine have been abducted between 9.30 and 10.00?
« Reply #188 on: April 14, 2013, 11:29:43 AM »
Carana:

In his profile he refers to cases, but in the report he clarifies that he is referring to 200 case searches.

I would dispute that that is 'clarification'.

I think that case searches is synonymous with cases.

For example, the combined effort to find Madeleine could be regarded as a single case or a single case search.



Beyond dispute, in the arguido interviews, it was put to Kate and Gerry that 'Eddie had never been wrong in over 200 cases'.

Interesting that the chance of translation errors are used as an excuse when it suits but disregarded when it doesn't .

Faithlilly

He speaks English.  We speak English

Gotit? 8(0(*

ferryman

  • Guest
Re: Could Madeleine have been abducted between 9.30 and 10.00?
« Reply #189 on: April 14, 2013, 11:36:41 AM »
Carana:

In his profile he refers to cases, but in the report he clarifies that he is referring to 200 case searches.

I would dispute that that is 'clarification'.

I think that case searches is synonymous with cases.

For example, the combined effort to find Madeleine could be regarded as a single case or a single case search.



Beyond dispute, in the arguido interviews, it was put to Kate and Gerry that 'Eddie had never been wrong in over 200 cases'.

Interesting that the chance of translation errors are used as an excuse when it suits but disregarded when it doesn't .

Translation?

http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/VOLUME_IXprocesso_2265.jpg

Offline faithlilly

Re: Could Madeleine have been abducted between 9.30 and 10.00?
« Reply #190 on: April 14, 2013, 11:37:18 AM »
@ sadie

Ferryman is relying on the arguido interview statements in the official files which have been translated from the original Portuguese.
Brietta posted on 10/04/2022 “But whether or not that is the reason behind the delay I am certain that Brueckner's trial is going to take place.”

Let’s count the months, shall we?

ferryman

  • Guest
Re: Could Madeleine have been abducted between 9.30 and 10.00?
« Reply #191 on: April 14, 2013, 11:39:57 AM »
@ sadie

Ferryman is relying on the arguido interview statements in the official files which have been translated from the original Portuguese.

You need to look at my edit to my post above ...

Here it is again:

http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/VOLUME_IXprocesso_2265.jpg

Further edit: the point is crucial because, according to SYP in an FOI answer, Eddie has been involved in just 37 cases.

Unfortunately, SYP long ago withdrew all their FOI answers about Eddie and Keela
« Last Edit: April 14, 2013, 11:46:18 AM by ferryman »

Offline sadie

Re: Could Madeleine have been abducted between 9.30 and 10.00?
« Reply #192 on: April 14, 2013, 11:42:21 AM »
Actually faithlilly, that seems like Grimes spiel when he tries to 'sell' his dogs

So it would have been in English.....................

Don'tcha think?

Offline faithlilly

Re: Could Madeleine have been abducted between 9.30 and 10.00?
« Reply #193 on: April 14, 2013, 11:50:53 AM »
@ sadie

Ferryman is relying on the arguido interview statements in the official files which have been translated from the original Portuguese.

You need to look at my edit to my post above ...

Here it is again:



http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/VOLUME_IXprocesso_2265.jpg

Further edit: the point is crucial because, according to SYP in an FOI answer, Eddie has been involved in just 37 cases.

Unfortunately, SYP long ago withdrew all their FOI answers about Eddie and Keela


Apologies. I stand corrected.
Brietta posted on 10/04/2022 “But whether or not that is the reason behind the delay I am certain that Brueckner's trial is going to take place.”

Let’s count the months, shall we?