Were the dog alerts in any way significant?

[OxfordBloo]

Have you got any proof of false alerts? According to Grime Eddie has none and the dogs passing with flying colours at FBI body farm comes from somebody close to Grime. The FBI used these dogs. The FBI wanted these dogs because they were outstanding at their job.

Vol IX p. 2481

FALSE ALERTS

'False' positives are always a possibility; to date Eddie has not so indicated
operationally or in training. In six years of operational deployment in over 200
criminal case searches the dog has never alerted to meat based and
specifically pork foodstuffs designed for human consumption. Similarly the
dog has never alerted to 'road kill', that is any other dead animal.

The way science works it is not necessary to prove false alerts; it is necessary to prove that positive alerts are connected to cadaver scent.

Eddie has reacted many times in this case to locations where no forensic evidence was found. Each of these cases could have been either true alerts with no residual evidence or false positive alerts where there never was any residual evidence. We just do not know.

Grime's evidence has two statements, both of which are possibly true, but together do not mean that Eddie has had no false alerts.

"'False' positives are always a possibility; to date Eddie has not so indicated
operationally or in training."

Grime fails to count non verified positive alerts as unknown, just ignoring them. Scientific method would require any non verified positives (as happened repeatedly in this investigation) as false positives. They cannot just be ignored as unknowns.

He the makes another statement that is new but not exclusive:

In six years of operational deployment in over 200
criminal case searches the dog has never alerted to meat based and
specifically pork foodstuffs designed for human consumption. Similarly the
dog has never alerted to 'road kill', that is any other dead animal.

This statement also omits times when Eddie alerted but there were neither forensics nor food stuffs present.


There is a gaping hole in Grime's account- known alerts where no forensics were found.

The current case contributes a considerable number to this total.

[OxfordBloo]

Have you got any proof of false alerts? According to Grime Eddie has none and the dogs passing with flying colours at FBI body farm comes from somebody close to Grime. The FBI used these dogs. The FBI wanted these dogs because they were outstanding at their job.


Attracta dog helps FBI to track killer
Published: August 22, 2006

The sniffer dog that helped detectives jail evil killer Trevor Hamilton has just returned from assisting the FBI with a murder probe in America.
Six-year-old English springer spaniel Eddie’s career took off internationally shortly after he returned to Ulster for a third time to help in the hunt for missing Arlene Arkinson.
Eddie helped police nail Hamilton after the victim-recovery dog found blood from Attracta Harron (63) on a mat from Hamilton’s burnt-out Hyundai car.
He burned it the day that he murdered the retired librarian.
Eddie found her body in a shallow grave in April 2003.
Martin Grime, Eddie’s handler at the Dog Unit attached to South Yorkshire Police Station, today told how he has returned to Tyrone to search for Arlene (15).
She went missing after leaving a disco in Bundoran, Co Donegal, on August 13 1994.
Police have recently been concentrating their search in her native Castlederg in Tyrone, where it is thought she was murdered.
Mr Grime said today: “We were over earlier this year and three times in total since the Attracta Harron case.
“With the Attracta investigation we came over for a week and on the last day, before we came back to the UK, we decided we would search the car. The stuff Eddie found was then taken away for forensic examination.
“Then when a search area was identified Eddie found the body as well. As far as the Arlene case goes, however, there has been nothing to date.”
Eddie has just returned from the US where he has been helping the FBI in a murder case.
Mr Grime said: “Dogs like Eddie are very, very good at what they do and he has lots of operational experience.
“I do some training with him every day.”
Hamilton (23) received Ulster’s longest prison sentence after he was jailed for life for the murder of Mrs Harron.

http://www.goodnewsblog.com/2006/08/22/attracta-dog-helps-fbi-to-track-killer

However many 'successful sniffer dog" stories are quoted, they do not improve Eddie's reputation because of the repeated times when alerts have been made in error, which are much less often recorded.

[Carana]

Ohhh no. I can sense more arguments about coconuts about to surface.

Make mine a piñada colada then.

[OxfordBloo]

Oh, and every single controlled and reviewed testing of all types of scent dogs shows at least a few and often many false positives.

Additionally every dog in training initially makes errors as it gradually differentiates what its trainer wants it too. Over time false positives and false negatives decline but never disappear completely.

[Carana]

Oh, and every single controlled and reviewed testing of all types of scent dogs shows at least a few and often many false positives.

Additionally every dog in training initially makes errors as it gradually differentiates what its trainer wants it too. Over time false positives and false negatives decline but never disappear completely.

If a dog alerts, but no evidence has been been found, but neither can the possibility of one having been there at some point in time be formally excluded, what kind of alert is that?

If a dog correctly alerts to substances within its training parameters, but which are not related to humain remains, what does that alert count as?

[Carana]

I thought the dogs did quite well.

Eddie alerted to the main bedroom, to the area behind the sofa in the living room, to the garden under the window, to the door of the hire car, to various items of clothing and to the toy 'cuddle cat'.

Keela alerted to the area behind the sofa in the living room and to the key and boot of the hire car.

In the areas where Keela alerted DNA evidence was found.

Nothing was found to support those alerts by Eddie which were not supported by Keela, but that is hardly surprising if he was alerting to cadaver scent.

Hardly suprising that the judge didn't want to get into doggiebabble, is it? ;)

Or Amaral's novel interpretation of DNA, for that matter...

[G-Unit]

Oh, and every single controlled and reviewed testing of all types of scent dogs shows at least a few and often many false positives.

Additionally every dog in training initially makes errors as it gradually differentiates what its trainer wants it too. Over time false positives and false negatives decline but never disappear completely.

The argument seems to have gone in the direction of whether the dogs are a useful tool or not. I think on balance they must be, otherwise they would not be widely used in various situations.

So, two of these useful tools were brought in to search various areas. In all the areas in which they were used they alerted only in areas occupied by Madeleine Mccann, her relatives and their belongings. As a result of these alerts some DNA evidence was found, some of which matched, either partially or completely, Madeleine and her father. Keela pointed out where the DNA evidence was to be found and Keela was correct, it was there.

Eddie alerted also. but his alerts didn't lead to any evidence being found. That doesn't mean he was alerting falsely or he was mistaken, it means no evidence was found.

Nevertheless the dog alerts should be seen as significant. They are an indication.

[OxfordBloo]

I thought the dogs did quite well.

Eddie alerted to the main bedroom, to the area behind the sofa in the living room, to the garden under the window, to the door of the hire car, to various items of clothing and to the toy 'cuddle cat'.

Keela alerted to the area behind the sofa in the living room and to the key and boot of the hire car.

In the areas where Keela alerted DNA evidence was found.

Nothing was found to support those alerts by Eddie which were not supported by Keela, but that is hardly surprising if he was alerting to cadaver scent.

I think you may have made several errors.

What DNA evidence was found where Keel reacted? Whatever it was it could only be blood she reacted to as she does not react to cadaver scent.

Which alerts by Eddie are you talking a out? You do know that Eddie reacts to blood AND cadaver scent?

[pathfinder73]

However many 'successful sniffer dog" stories are quoted, they do not improve Eddie's reputation because of the repeated times when alerts have been made in error, which are much less often recorded.

Eddie's reputation doesn't have to be improved as his record speaks for itself. If a dead body was in a room it doesn't mean forensics will find anything. Prout denied it for years (no forensic evidence) but he couldn't fool Eddie. He confessed, Hamilton confessed a body was there but there was no forensic proof!  Which alerts were made in error? He alerts to cadaver scent if no body or blood is present. Keela alerted to microscopic blood in two places - between the tiles behind the sofa and in the car boot. The key had Gerry's blood.

GA: The reports from the English labs… the English reports arrive shortly before the questionings that were scheduled. And it contained certain conclusions, if they thought they were inconclusive they shouldn’t have mentioned it, the question of the 15 alleles in a profile of 19 from the little girl, stating that they match Madeleine McCann, but they also say that it could have been a construction let’s say from various donors, from other persons, a contamination could have produced Madeleine McCann’s profile by coincidence. But there are no excuses for saying that it is not from Madeleine McCann because they held the profiles of the father, the mother, the siblings, therefore there are no doubts that at least within that family they only matched Madeleine McCann’s.

[Carana]

The argument seems to have gone in the direction of whether the dogs are a useful tool or not. I think on balance they must be, otherwise they would not be widely used in various situations.

So, two of these useful tools were brought in to search various areas. In all the areas in which they were used they alerted only in areas occupied by Madeleine Mccann, her relatives and their belongings. As a result of these alerts some DNA evidence was found, some of which matched, either partially or completely, Madeleine and her father. Keela pointed out where the DNA evidence was to be found and Keela was correct, it was there.

Eddie alerted also. but his alerts didn't lead to any evidence being found. That doesn't mean he was alerting falsely or he was mistaken, it means no evidence was found.

Nevertheless the dog alerts should be seen as significant. They are an indication.

I love dogs and found a heart-warming story of a Springer spaniel police dog who has just been awarded a posthumous equivalent of a doggie OBE.

http://news.sky.com/story/1474059/police-sniffer-dog-awarded-posthumous-obe

I have no problem with dogs as an asset. Their job is to help find evidence. In this case, they didn't find anything of significance. That happens.

[OxfordBloo]

Eddie's reputation doesn't have to be improved as his record speaks for itself. If a dead body was in a room it doesn't mean forensics will find anything. Prout denied it for years (no forensic evidence) but he couldn't fool Eddie. He confessed, Hamilton confessed a body was there but there was no forensic proof!  Which alerts were made in error? He alerts to cadaver scent if no body or blood is present. Keela alerted to microscopic blood in two places - between the tiles behind the sofa and in the car boot. The key had Gerry's blood.

GA: The reports from the English labs… the English reports arrive shortly before the questionings that were scheduled. And it contained certain conclusions, if they thought they were inconclusive they shouldn’t have mentioned it, the question of the 15 alleles in a profile of 19 from the little girl, stating that they match Madeleine McCann, but they also say that it could have been a construction let’s say from various donors, from other persons, a contamination could have produced Madeleine McCann’s profile by coincidence. But there are no excuses for saying that it is not from Madeleine McCann because they held the profiles of the father, the mother, the siblings, therefore there are no doubts that at least within that family they only matched Madeleine McCann’s.

Evidence of positive results does not improve the possibility of error as those cases where dogs were used to no avail rarely get recorded.

It is a scientific fact that multiple false alerts have occurred in formal testing of scent dogs.

[G-Unit]

I think you may have made several errors.

What DNA evidence was found where Keel reacted? Whatever it was it could only be blood she reacted to as she does not react to cadaver scent.

Which alerts by Eddie are you talking a out? You do know that Eddie reacts to blood AND cadaver scent?

The reports on the DNA found are in the files. All swabs taken as a result of Keela's alerts;
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/JOHN_LOWE.htm

some of Eddie's alerts were not confirmed by Keela, so they weren't blood. Main bedroom of G5A for one.

[Carana]

Eddie's reputation doesn't have to be improved as his record speaks for itself. If a dead body was in a room it doesn't mean forensics will find anything. Prout denied it for years (no forensic evidence) but he couldn't fool Eddie. He confessed, Hamilton confessed a body was there but there was no forensic proof!  Which alerts were made in error? He alerts to cadaver scent if no body or blood is present. Keela alerted to microscopic blood in two places - between the tiles behind the sofa and in the car boot. The key had Gerry's blood.

GA: The reports from the English labs… the English reports arrive shortly before the questionings that were scheduled. And it contained certain conclusions, if they thought they were inconclusive they shouldn’t have mentioned it, the question of the 15 alleles in a profile of 19 from the little girl, stating that they match Madeleine McCann, but they also say that it could have been a construction let’s say from various donors, from other persons, a contamination could have produced Madeleine McCann’s profile by coincidence. But there are no excuses for saying that it is not from Madeleine McCann because they held the profiles of the father, the mother, the siblings, therefore there are no doubts that at least within that family they only matched Madeleine McCann’s.

Thanks for that. That was the main novel interpretation of forensic DNA that I had in mind...

[OxfordBloo]

The reports on the DNA found are in the files. All swabs taken as a result of Keela's alerts;
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/JOHN_LOWE.htm

some of Eddie's alerts were not confirmed by Keela, so they weren't blood. Main bedroom of G5A for one.

What information was gained from the DNA found where Keela reacted.

The time that Eddie reacted and Keela did not could indicate cadaver scent but as no forensic material was found, it could equally have been a false negative by Keela or a false positive by Eddie; we shall never know.

Quite.

[misty]

This topic was resurrected because Pathfinder has shown that Eddie signalled to the T-Shirt Gerry was seen wearing on the morning after Madeleine went missing.
This T-Shirt was not highlighted in the Eddie & Keela videos as having been contaminated by cadaver or blood. Only Sean's T-Shirt & Kate's top & trousers were honed in on by the cameraman. Is that because the PJ were intent on pinning a crime on Kate?
Has Grime made a mistake in identifying what Eddie was alerting to? What was  the difference between Eddie picking up Sean's T-Shirt & barking & then almost picking up Gerry's T-Shirt & barking? - then standing over other clothes & just barking?
If the Grime was unable to precisely identify which items Eddie (not Keela) was really marking, were the indications worth anything at all?