Were the dog alerts in any way significant?

[Carew]

The book is

http://www.amazon.co.uk/When-Prophecy-Fails-Leon-Festinger-ebook/dp/B00CBDCF84/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1430815160&sr=8-2&keywords=festinger

When Prophecy Fails [Kindle Edition]   
Leon Festinger (Author), Henry W. Riecken     (Author), Stanley Schachter   


Academic Papers

http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/3709905?uid=3738032&uid=2129&uid=2&uid=70&uid=4&sid=21106279120861

Another

   What Really Happens When Prophecy Fails: The Case of Lubavitch.
Dein, Simon (2001)
 Sociology of Religion 62:3: 383-401.
 Based on participant observation in the Stamford Hill Lubavitch community (U.K.). The failure of a messianic prophecy was followed by more proselytizing at the same pace. Members rationally explained the disconfirmation & spiritualized its meaning.
 Associated Search Terms: Participant observation; Disconfirmation; Jewish, Lubavitcher, Great Britain; Cognitive dissonance

   When Prophecy Passes Unnoticed: New Perspectives on Failed Prophecy.
Bader, Christopher D. (1999)
 Journal for the Scientific Study of Religion 38:1: 119-131.
 Associated Search Terms: Participant observation; UFO cult; Cognitive dissonance; Disconfirmation

Fifteen Years of Failed Prophecy. Coping with Cognitive Dissonance in a Baha'i Sect.
Balch, Robert W., John Dohn Domitrovich, Barbara Lynn Mahnke, and Vanessa Morrison (1997)
 In Thomas Robbins and Susan J. Palmer (eds.), Millennium, Messiahs, and Mayhem. Contemporary Apocalyptic Movements. New York: Routledge, pp. 73-90.
 Based on 1980-96 participant observation, interviews, & documentary research on an offshoot from Baha'i.
 Associated Search Terms: United States, Montana, Missoula; Millennial; Participant observation; Cognitive dissonance; Baha´is Under the Provisions of the Covenant; Millenarian, U.S.A.

Prophetic Failure: A Re-Testing of the Festinger, Riecken and Schachter Study of Disconfirmed Prophecy in a Millennial Cult.
Mahnke, Barbara Lynn (1987)
 Unpublished Master's thesis, University of Montana.
 Associated Search Terms: Millennial; Cognitive dissonance; Millenarian, U.S.A.; Baha´is Under the Provisions of the Covenant

Wow.........That`ll impress some on here like rabbits caught in the headlights .....( or a cult following?)

..........but is about as on topic as the first time you deflected with it.

[G-Unit]

Grime's retired just before he left Portugal and before he started in Jersey. Eddie and Keela went out of authentication before he got to Jersey and he would not have been able to use them for police reasons in England, but Jersey did not require certification.

Retired or not, he was working for SYP when in Portugal;

I am a retired police offer, previously at the service of the South Yorkshire police. Between August 1-8, 2007, and while working for the South Yorkshire police, I collaborated with the Judicial Police, Portugal, as regards their Operations Task Force.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MARTIN_GRIMES_RIGATORY.htm

[G-Unit]

Wow.........That`ll impress some on here like rabbits caught in the headlights .....( or a cult following?)

..........but is about as on topic as the first time you deflected with it.

If people didn't rationlise their beliefs there would be no religions. Sociological studies are enlightening, but cannot be described as 'scientific'. Bit like dog alerts really. 

[OxfordBloo]

Madeleine: McCanns consult American lawyers over 'cadaver dog' evidence Daily Mail
 
Last updated at 18:07 16 September 2007
 
Kate and Gerry McCann's legal team have consulted the lawyers of an American man accused of murdering his estranged wife in a case where cadaver dog evidence was key, a source said today.
 
Two British sniffer dogs, one capable of detecting blood and human remains, were brought to Portugal in early August.
 
The cadaver dog picked up a "scent of death" on everything from Mrs McCann's clothes to missing Madeleine's favourite soft toy Cuddle Cat, according to reports.
 
During police interviews the McCanns were shown a video of the animal "going crazy" when it approached their Renault Scenic hire car, newspapers have claimed.
 
Leaked reports from the investigation have suggested Madeleine's parents could have accidentally killed her and then disposed of her body using the car.
 
Although they do not know the full details of Portuguese prosecutors' case against them, the McCanns are concerned it may rest on the dog's reaction.
 
They want to highlight the judge's dismissal of cadaver dog evidence in the high-profile Eugene Zapata murder trial in Madison, Wisconsin.
 
The couple's lawyers have already contacted Zapata's defence team, who are now sending their large file on the matter to Britain.
 
Zapata's estranged wife, flight instructor Jeanette Zapata, was 37 when she vanished on October 11 1976 after seeing her three children off to school. Her body has never been found.
 
Detectives suspected Zapata of involvement in her disappearance but did not charge him because of a lack of evidence.
 
Police decided to conduct new searches using cadaver dogs, a new investigative technique, when an old friend of Mrs Zapata contacted them about the case in 2004.
 
Zapata, 68, was charged with first-degree murder last year after the dogs indicated they sniffed human remains in a small basement "crawl space" at the former family home in Madison and other properties linked to him.
 
But Dane County Judge Patrick Fiedler ruled last month that the evidence that led to the charge could not be put before the jury.
 
He said the dogs were too unreliable in detecting the odour of remains and noted that no remains were actually found.
 
The judge agreed with an analysis of the three dogs' track record by Zapata's defence team that found they were incorrect 78 per cent, 71 per cent and 62 per cent of the time.
 
According to the Wisconsin State Journal, Mr Fiedler told the court: "The state has failed to convince me that it's any more reliable than the flip of a coin." Zapata denies murder, and the jury in the case went out on Friday to start considering its verdict.
 
A source close to the McCanns' solicitors said: "The legal team are in touch with the lawyers who represented the defendant in the case.
 
"The court papers, giving the legal submissions, are on their way to the McCann team for consideration.
 
"At the moment there are no formal charges and therefore there is no formal allegation against which the McCann team can work. We are having to work a little bit in the dark.
 
"But given that we understand the central plank of what the police are alleging involves sniffer dogs - albeit British ones which are said to be particularly good - this is important and relevant, and will be raised with the police and brought to the judge's attention."
 
ZAPATA ADMITS KILLING WIFE, GETS 5 YEARS THE FORMER MADISON MAN PLEADS GUILTY TO THE 1976 MURDER.

On Oct. 11, 1976, Eugene Zapata hit his wife on the head with a rectangular paperweight, then strangled her until his hands hurt. He wrapped her body in a tent and buried it.

For more than 30 years, he maintained that Jeanette Zapata just disappeared. He kept the secret until earlier this month, when he confessed to Madison police.

Zapata's confession came Feb. 5. He gave a detailed account, as required under a plea agreement he reached with prosecutors to avoid another trial.

On Monday, Zapata, 69, pleaded guilty to homicide by reckless conduct and was sentenced to the maximum five years in prison, though it's likely he will serve less than that. Zapata's statement to police was described in court Monday by Assistant District Attorney Robert Kaiser.

Zapata was tried in the fall for first-degree murder, but after 30 hours of deliberation, the jury could not reach a verdict and Dane County Circuit Judge Patrick Fiedler declared a mistrial. A second trial was to start next month.

One of Zapata's daughters, Linda Zapata, who testified for the prosecution during his trial, said she forgave her father and expressed relief at knowing what happened to her mother.

"Although I don't condone what you did to Mom, I do forgive you and I love you," she said. "I hope you take this time now as a chance to come clean, ask for and accept forgiveness. You deserve that too."

But her father had nothing to say.

"At this time and at this phase I would have no comment," Zapata said when given the chance to speak.

Zapata, a retired state Department of Transportation worker, was taken from the courtroom in handcuffs and will be taken to Dodge Correctional Institution for assignment to a Wisconsin prison.

STRANGLED WIFE

Kaiser said Zapata, with his lawyers present, gave a statement on Feb. 5 to Madison Police Detective Marianne Flynn Statz in which he talked about going on Oct. 11, 1976, to the home on Indian Trace on Madison's East Side where Jeanette Zapata lived with the couple's three children.

The Zapatas were getting divorced and Zapata wasn't to be at the home, except at times approved by a judge to pick up their children.

"A verbal argument ensued between the defendant and Jeanette Zapata," Kaiser said. The argument became heated but not violent. But after Jeanette Zapata went into the kitchen, Eugene Zapata told police, he picked up a rectangular draftsman's weight, an item used to hold down blueprints.

"He described himself to Detective Statz as 'snapping,'" Kaiser said. He approached Jeanette Zapata from behind and "struck her hard," Kaiser said, probably more than once on the top and back of her head.

"Jeanette Zapata did not see the attack coming," Kaiser said.

She fell to the floor and hit the dishwasher door on the way down, Kaiser said. Then Eugene Zapata strangled her "until his hands hurt," he said. Afterward, he wrapped a cord around her neck, Kaiser said, "to assure himself that she was dead."

Kaiser said Zapata wrapped Jeanette Zapata's body in a poplin tent and took it in his car to a farm field near Madison. In 1977, Zapata bought vacant land in Juneau County and moved her body there, where it stayed until 2005. Then, he and his current wife, Joan, decided to move to Nevada and sell the land.

Zapata dug up Jeanette Zapata's remains and moved them to a storage locker in Sun Prairie with some camping equipment. Later in 2005, he disposed of the remains in several Dumpsters at the Juneau County landfill. District Attorney Brian Blanchard said Monday that although police searched the landfill in 2006, no new search for remains was made after Zapata's statement to Statz.

Although the evidence was excluded from Zapata's first trial, police said corpse-sniffing dogs indicated the scent of human remains at the Indian Trace home and two other homes occupied by Zapata as well as a storage locker and a rental car. Based on Zapata's statement, the locker and car indications were correct.

CLOSURE WANTED

Stephen Hurley, one of Zapata's attorneys, said after the hearing that he couldn't disclose much about how the plea agreement was reached, citing attorney-client privilege. But he said it came about "because everyone wanted to give closure to it."

"Both sides faced a risk were the matter to be retried," Hurley said, "which is generally what occurs with kind of an all-or-nothing proposition such as a first-degree homicide trial. So it was simply, I believe, both sides wanting to give closure to it."

Those sentiments were echoed by Blanchard.

"Part of what happened after the Madison Police Department took a cold case from nowhere to today is the ability now to have the family and friends of Jeanette Zapata know exactly what happened to her," Blanchard said. "That is a huge achievement for justice and closure for the family."

Kaiser said during the hearing that if Zapata had been convicted of first-degree murder during a trial, he could have gone to the grave never telling his family what had happened to Jeanette Zapata.

'CHANCE TO GRIEVE'

Linda Zapata said during her statement in court that her father's interview with police gave herself and others "a precious gift," the chance to grieve and heal.

"Mom deserved the truth about what really happened that morning and I thank you for finally giving her that," she said to her father. "My mom didn't abandon me or my family. You told Detective Statz that mom was a good mother, that she never deserved to die and that you were very sorry. Those words hang with me and give me comfort."

But her brother, Steven, who has defended his father throughout the case, said he is still convinced his father is innocent and pleaded guilty "just for simplicity," and for the sake of his older sister, Christine.

"I guess I want to say I still think he's innocent," Steven Zapata said. "I still love him and support him."\

ZAPATA'S SENTENCE

Eugene Zapata committed his crime in 1976, before Wisconsin enacted its "truth in sentencing" law. Under the old law, Zapata must serve at least one-quarter of his five-year sentence before he is eligible for parole and must be released after serving two-thirds of his sentence. That means he will be free after serving about three years of the five-year sentence.\

ZAPATA TIMELINE

Some key dates surrounding the disappearance and murder of Jeanette Zapata: Dec. 26, 1959: Eugene Zapata and Jeanette Herrling marry. Their first child, Christine, is born in 1960. Two more children, Steven and Linda, follow.

May 12, 1976: Jeanette Zapata serves Eugene Zapata with divorce papers.

May 12-Oct. 11, 1976: Eugene Zapata maintains what prosecutors now label a "stalking diary," following his estranged wife's movements, a romantic relationship she was having, her relationship with their children and even the contents of the trash cans in her home. He also hires a private detective.

Sept. 21, 1976: Court commissioner bars Eugene Zapata from the family home on Indian Trace except for two hours of child visitation on Saturdays.

Oct. 11, 1976: Jeanette Zapata vanishes.

Feb. 27, 1977: Divorce granted with Jeanette Zapata absent. A few days later, Eugene Zapata marries his current wife, Joan.

Nov. 30, 2004: High school friend Peg Weekley, of Oklahoma City, writes to Madison police to ask if they have any news on Jeanette Zapata's disappearance.

Dec. 3, 2004: Madison police restart investigation.

Jan. 12, 2005: Madison police use cadaver dogs to check the basement of Zapata's former home on Indian Trace in Madison. Other cadaver dog searches of that property and other locations take place throughout 2005 and into 2006. The dogs alert to the scent of human remains, but none are found.

April 7-14, 2005: Zapata comes to Wisconsin from his home in Henderson, Nev., cleans out a storage locker and visits the Juneau County Landfill near Mauston.

Aug. 28, 2006: Zapata is charged with first-degree murder in Dane County and is arrested in Nevada.

Sept. 4-17, 2007: Trial is heard, ends in mistrial after jury is deadlocked.

Oct. 2, 2007: Prosecutors say they will retry Zapata.

Monday: Zapata pleads guilty to homicide by reckless conduct and is sentenced to five years in prison.

http://host.madison.com/news/zapata-admits-killing-wife-gets-years-the-former-madison-man/article_3f7a7f4f-cb83-5869-b9c6-23532bc49a4e.html

And...?

[ferryman]

Retired or not, he was working for SYP when in Portugal;

I am a retired police offer, previously at the service of the South Yorkshire police. Between August 1-8, 2007, and while working for the South Yorkshire police, I collaborated with the Judicial Police, Portugal, as regards their Operations Task Force.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MARTIN_GRIMES_RIGATORY.htm

No he wasn't.

On his profile, he gives as his base his home address in Oxford.

And unlike in the second enquiry, where we have seen actual UK police officers working on the ground in Portugal,  wearing their police-officer uniforms, Grime never wore his, with good reason.

It is an offence to imitate a police officer if you are not one.

In Portugal during the (now shelved) initial Madeleine investigation, Grime was not a serving UK police officer.

[OxfordBloo]

No he wasn't.

On his profile, he gives as his base his home address in Oxford.

And unlike in the second enquiry, where we have seen actual UK police officers working on the ground in Portugal,  wearing their police-officer uniforms, Grime never wore his, with good reason.

It is an offence to imitate a police officer if you are not one.

In Portugal during the (now shelved) initial Madeleine investigation, Grime was not a serving UK police officer.

IIRC he was on extended special leave prior to his retirement date that occurred while he was in Portugal. I suspect that be was not there as part of his police work.

It is not an offence to impersonate a police officer.

[G-Unit]

No he wasn't.

On his profile, he gives as his base his home address in Oxford.

And unlike in the second enquiry, where we have seen actual UK police officers working on the ground in Portugal,  wearing their police-officer uniforms, Grime never wore his, with good reason.

It is an offence to imitate a police officer if you are not one.

In Portugal during the (now shelved) initial Madeleine investigation, Grime was not a serving UK police officer.

He was working for south Yorkshire police, whether retired or not.

[Carana]

No he wasn't.

On his profile, he gives as his base his home address in Oxford.

And unlike in the second enquiry, where we have seen actual UK police officers working on the ground in Portugal,  wearing their police-officer uniforms, Grime never wore his, with good reason.

It is an offence to imitate a police officer if you are not one.

In Portugal during the (now shelved) initial Madeleine investigation, Grime was not a serving UK police officer.

I agree that if the trip was official SYP business, I would have expected correspondence to be on SYP letterhead and not his personal address.

I don't think the uniform issue means anything either way - Harrison wasn't in uniform either.

The most likely explanation for the confusion (IMO) is that he was retired as of Aug 1, but the 5A inspection was on July 31 - technically still employed on that day, but took unused leave.

[ferryman]

IIRC he was on extended special leave prior to his retirement date that occurred while he was in Portugal. I suspect that be was not there as part of his police work.

It is not an offence to impersonate a police officer.

http://ukcriminallawblog.com/man-wearing-pig-mask-and-toy-police-officers-helmet-arrested-for-impersonating-an-officer/

What’s the offence?

Police Act 1996 s 90 created offences relating to the impersonation of a police officer:

(1)  ANY PERSON WHO WITH INTENT TO DECEIVE IMPERSONATES A MEMBER OF A POLICE FORCE OR SPECIAL CONSTABLE, OR MAKES ANY STATEMENT OR DOES ANY ACT CALCULATED FALSELY TO SUGGEST THAT HE IS SUCH A MEMBER OR CONSTABLE, SHALL BE GUILTY OF AN OFFENCE AND LIABLE ON SUMMARY CONVICTION TO IMPRISONMENT FOR A TERM NOT EXCEEDING SIX MONTHS OR TO A FINE NOT EXCEEDING LEVEL 5 ON THE STANDARD SCALE, OR TO BOTH.

(2)  ANY PERSON WHO, NOT BEING A CONSTABLE, WEARS ANY ARTICLE OF POLICE UNIFORM IN CIRCUMSTANCES WHERE IT GIVES HIM AN APPEARANCE SO NEARLY RESEMBLING THAT OF A MEMBER OF A POLICE FORCE AS TO BE CALCULATED TO DECEIVE SHALL BE GUILTY OF AN OFFENCE AND LIABLE ON SUMMARY CONVICTION TO A FINE NOT EXCEEDING LEVEL 3 ON THE STANDARD SCALE.

(3)  ANY PERSON WHO, NOT BEING A MEMBER OF A POLICE FORCE OR SPECIAL CONSTABLE, HAS IN HIS POSSESSION ANY ARTICLE OF POLICE UNIFORM SHALL, UNLESS HE PROVES THAT HE OBTAINED POSSESSION OF THAT ARTICLE LAWFULLY AND HAS POSSESSION OF IT FOR A LAWFUL PURPOSE, BE GUILTY OF AN OFFENCE AND LIABLE ON SUMMARY CONVICTION TO A FINE NOT EXCEEDING LEVEL 1 ON THE STANDARD SCALE.

[ferryman]

I agree that if the trip was official SYP business, I would have expected correspondence to be on SYP letterhead and not his personal address.

I don't think the uniform issue means anything either way - Harrison wasn't in uniform either.

The most likely explanation for the confusion (IMO) is that he was retired as of Aug 1, but the 5A inspection was on July 31 - technically still employed on that day, but took unused leave.

Are there photographs of Harrison?

[OxfordBloo]

He was working for south Yorkshire police, whether retired or not.

He was employed by SYP for part of the time. I am not certain whether he was acting in PdL as part of his duties as a SYP officer. I suspect not.

Eddie and Keela were allowed to retire with him as is normal for retiring dog officers and were part of his additional pension plan.

If Eddie and Keela were so extraordinary- 'the best dogs in be world'- I am surprised Ta hey released such a valuable asset.

[Carana]

Are there photographs of Harrison?

Good point. No, I don't think so. Just a glimpse of legs in shorts in the videos with an English voice that isn't Grime's.

[OxfordBloo]

http://ukcriminallawblog.com/man-wearing-pig-mask-and-toy-police-officers-helmet-arrested-for-impersonating-an-officer/

What’s the offence?

Police Act 1996 s 90 created offences relating to the impersonation of a police officer:

(1)  ANY PERSON WHO WITH INTENT TO DECEIVE IMPERSONATES A MEMBER OF A POLICE FORCE OR SPECIAL CONSTABLE, OR MAKES ANY STATEMENT OR DOES ANY ACT CALCULATED FALSELY TO SUGGEST THAT HE IS SUCH A MEMBER OR CONSTABLE, SHALL BE GUILTY OF AN OFFENCE AND LIABLE ON SUMMARY CONVICTION TO IMPRISONMENT FOR A TERM NOT EXCEEDING SIX MONTHS OR TO A FINE NOT EXCEEDING LEVEL 5 ON THE STANDARD SCALE, OR TO BOTH.

(2)  ANY PERSON WHO, NOT BEING A CONSTABLE, WEARS ANY ARTICLE OF POLICE UNIFORM IN CIRCUMSTANCES WHERE IT GIVES HIM AN APPEARANCE SO NEARLY RESEMBLING THAT OF A MEMBER OF A POLICE FORCE AS TO BE CALCULATED TO DECEIVE SHALL BE GUILTY OF AN OFFENCE AND LIABLE ON SUMMARY CONVICTION TO A FINE NOT EXCEEDING LEVEL 3 ON THE STANDARD SCALE.

(3)  ANY PERSON WHO, NOT BEING A MEMBER OF A POLICE FORCE OR SPECIAL CONSTABLE, HAS IN HIS POSSESSION ANY ARTICLE OF POLICE UNIFORM SHALL, UNLESS HE PROVES THAT HE OBTAINED POSSESSION OF THAT ARTICLE LAWFULLY AND HAS POSSESSION OF IT FOR A LAWFUL PURPOSE, BE GUILTY OF AN OFFENCE AND LIABLE ON SUMMARY CONVICTION TO A FINE NOT EXCEEDING LEVEL 1 ON THE STANDARD SCALE.

Yes. Thank you for confirming that the law does state that impersonating a police officer alone is NOT an offence.

[Carana]

He was employed by SYP for part of the time. I am not certain whether he was acting in PdL as part of his duties as a SYP officer. I suspect not.

Eddie and Keela were allowed to retire with him as is normal for retiring dog officers and were part of his additional pension plan.

If Eddie and Keela were so extraordinary- 'the best dogs in be world'- I am surprised Ta hey released such a valuable asset.

Isn't it usual practice for dogs to retire with their handlers?

[ferryman]

Yes. Thank you for confirming that the law does state that impersonating a police officer alone is NOT an offence.

With intent to deceive is an offence.