UK Justice Forum 🇬🇧
Disappeared and Abducted Children and Young Adults => Madeleine McCann (3) disappeared from her parent's holiday apartment at Ocean Club, Praia da Luz, Portugal on 3 May 2007. No trace of her has ever been found. => Topic started by: Robittybob1 on March 08, 2018, 03:28:27 AM
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Well if 99.9% of missing children are due to the parents (as Yvonne Martin claimed) and their friends, does that mean statistically the McCanns and their friends were the ones that did it? Can stats be applied like this.
Davel is going to show us how to apply the statistics properly. I'm waiting to see it.
I have a feeling it really matters as to what you call the problem Is it a missing child, murdered child, abducted child, or a child that has just run away. Each category will have its own statistics. But are they related.
In this general knowledge article there already is a raft of different categories.
" But how common are child abductions?
The charity Action Against Abduction, formerly Pact, estimates that roughly 50 children under the age of 16 are abducted by strangers every year.
Its report Taken, which used data from UK police forces in 2011-12, found that 42% of all abduction attempts were made by strangers - and three quarters of the attempts were unsuccessful.
The average age of abducted children in the UK was 13, while the average age of children who suffered attempted abductions by non-parental perpetrators was 11, according to the report.
Action Against Abduction claims that most of these cases are sexually motivated, yet many attempted abductions are not reported to police.
However, offences by strangers are still quite rare - with the NSPCC pointing out that more than 90% of child sexual abuse is perpetrated by someone known to the child." http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-37504781
In the McCann case we have a child gone missing, we don't know if she was abducted, sexually abused, or murdered or anything really, so which study covers this type of missing child case?
Figures on sexual abuse, or on abductions don't really help. Do we need the stats as it applies to Portugal since it happened there?
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The other problem is under reporting:
"The problem is that many attempts go unreported, said Mr Newiss. Certainly, the 2008 study claimed that only 33% of incidents it recorded were reported to the police.
He estimates that one in every 100 children face an abduction attempt at some point in their childhood or teenage years.
"The police numbers are the tip of the iceberg," he said."
So if we use the Portuguese figures what is the rate of under-reporting there?
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And the next step in analysis the figures is understand the age group categories.
"Statistics New Zealand figures show a total of 84 children, including 36 teenagers aged 15 to 19, 21 children aged 10 to 14, 12 children aged 5 to 9, and 15 pre-schoolers aged 0 to 4, were kidnapped in the 2016 year to September.
That's up on the same period in 2015, when 81 children were reported abducted or kidnapped." http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11769758
OK that is for abducted kids in NZ, we don't know if Madeleine was abducted but was suggested in May last year "Madeleine was abducted" (Mark Rowley from SY)
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The International Centre for Missing and Exploited Children website details the same problems as I have outlined
https://www.icmec.org/missing-children-statistics/
1. "The lack of a common definition of “missing child,” and a common response to the issue, results in few reliable statistics on the scope of the problem around the world.
2. "In many countries, statistics on missing children are not even available; and, unfortunately, even available statistics may be inaccurate due to: under-reporting/under-recognition; inflation; incorrect database entry of case information; and deletion of records once a case is closed."
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What did Yvonne Martin say in her statement?
"She first found them aggressive and their reaction after she showed Madeleine's parents her credentials, also seemed strange to her. Afterwards she was informed that there were no signs of a break-in in the apartment. Knowing that they are doctors she found it absolutely abnormal that they left their children alone at home. Associating all of this with her professional experience, which tells her that in 99.99 % of missing children cases, the parents or other family members are involved, she felt it was her duty to inform the police of this."
I don't think there is any study that would show such a high incidence of the family being involved. Maybe a very high proportion of murdered kids of the under 5 maybe related to family involvement. Did she mean "murdered kids" rather than "missing kids"? Is stranger abduction going to be around 1 in 10,000 cases of missing kids?
I doubt that very much? There are so many ways these stats are presented anyone will have trouble understanding the stats easily.
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Here are some USA figures from https://edition.cnn.com/2013/10/22/us/missing-children-fast-facts/index.html
"The Second National Incidence Studies of Missing, Abducted, Runaway and Thrownaway Children (NISMART-2), released by the Department of Justice in 2002 and spanning the years 1997 to 1999, reported that of the 797,500 children reported missing in a one-year period, 203,900 were abducted by family members and 58,200 were abducted by non-relatives. One-hundred and fifteen were classified as being taken by a stranger."
OK that is just 115 out of nearly 800,000 missing kids that were abducted by strangers or just over the 1 in 10,000 but looking at the total of the family and those known to the family it does not come to anywhere the total of 797,500, in fact 262100 out of 797500 32.86520376% so abducted kids is only about 33% of the missing kids, the rest are runaways and throwaways.
I wonder what proportion of missing kids die due to accidental deaths?
Wikipedia has the category but not the proportion of cases. "Lost, injured or otherwise missing children: Disappearances for no apparent reason of minors who got lost (e.g. young children at the seaside in summer) or hurt themselves and cannot be found immediately (e.g. accidents during sport activities, at youth camps, etc.), as well as children whose reason for disappearing has not yet been determined."
I wonder what category those kids are listed: "as well as children whose reason for disappearing has not yet been determined"?
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Well if 99.9% of child abductions are due to the parents (as Yvonne Martin claimed) and their friends, does that mean statistically the McCanns and their friends were the ones that did it? Can stats be applied like this.
Davel is going to show us how to apply the statistics properly. I'm waiting to see it.
I have a feeling it really matters as to what you call the problem Is it a missing child, murdered child, abducted child, or a child that has just run away. Each category will have its own statistics. But are they related.
In this general knowledge article there already is a raft of different categories.
" But how common are child abductions?
The charity Action Against Abduction, formerly Pact, estimates that roughly 50 children under the age of 16 are abducted by strangers every year.
Its report Taken, which used data from UK police forces in 2011-12, found that 42% of all abduction attempts were made by strangers - and three quarters of the attempts were unsuccessful.
The average age of abducted children in the UK was 13, while the average age of children who suffered attempted abductions by non-parental perpetrators was 11, according to the report.
Action Against Abduction claims that most of these cases are sexually motivated, yet many attempted abductions are not reported to police.
However, offences by strangers are still quite rare - with the NSPCC pointing out that more than 90% of child sexual abuse is perpetrated by someone known to the child." http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-37504781
In the McCann case we have a child gone missing, we don't know if she was abducted, sexually abused, or murdered or anything really, so which study covers this type of missing child case?
Figures on sexual abuse, or on abductions don't really help. Do we need the stats as it applies to Portugal since it happened there?
do you really not understand how to apply the statisics
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What did Yvonne Martin say in her statement?
"She first found them aggressive and their reaction after she showed Madeleine's parents her credentials, also seemed strange to her. Afterwards she was informed that there were no signs of a break-in in the apartment. Knowing that they are doctors she found it absolutely abnormal that they left their children alone at home. Associating all of this with her professional experience, which tells her that in 99.99 % of missing children cases, the parents or other family members are involved, she felt it was her duty to inform the police of this."
I don't think there is any study that would show such a high incidence of the family being involved. Maybe a very high proportion of murdered kids of the under 5 maybe related to family involvement. Did she mean "murdered kids" rather than "missing kids"? Is stranger abduction going to be around 1 in 10,000 cases of missing kids?
I doubt that very much? There are so many ways these stats are presented anyone will have trouble understanding the stats easily.
Rob, that is what a police officer wrote. There's no way of knowing whether she really did say that or whether the officer misunderstood. If she did say that, did she mean it figuratively (as in "many")? What is meant by "missing"? All categories? Time-frame: missing for a few hours... years?
We have a few threads floating around somewhere on the general subject of missing / abducted kids.
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Well if 99.9% of child abductions are due to the parents (as Yvonne Martin claimed) and their friends, does that mean statistically the McCanns and their friends were the ones that did it? Can stats be applied like this.
Davel is going to show us how to apply the statistics properly. I'm waiting to see it.
I have a feeling it really matters as to what you call the problem Is it a missing child, murdered child, abducted child, or a child that has just run away. Each category will have its own statistics. But are they related.
In this general knowledge article there already is a raft of different categories.
" But how common are child abductions?
The charity Action Against Abduction, formerly Pact, estimates that roughly 50 children under the age of 16 are abducted by strangers every year.
Its report Taken, which used data from UK police forces in 2011-12, found that 42% of all abduction attempts were made by strangers - and three quarters of the attempts were unsuccessful.
The average age of abducted children in the UK was 13, while the average age of children who suffered attempted abductions by non-parental perpetrators was 11, according to the report.
Action Against Abduction claims that most of these cases are sexually motivated, yet many attempted abductions are not reported to police.
However, offences by strangers are still quite rare - with the NSPCC pointing out that more than 90% of child sexual abuse is perpetrated by someone known to the child." http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-37504781
In the McCann case we have a child gone missing, we don't know if she was abducted, sexually abused, or murdered or anything really, so which study covers this type of missing child case?
Figures on sexual abuse, or on abductions don't really help. Do we need the stats as it applies to Portugal since it happened there?
Rob, statistics based on previous instances without other evidence give the police a focus for their investigations as it gives a likelihood of the who/what and why.
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Rob, statistics based on previous instances without other evidence give the police a focus for their investigations as it gives a likelihood of the who/what and why.
I agree with that in principle, and I presume that the expression about clearing the ground under one's feet is precisely that.
However, Rob's question was about her alleged assertion that some (including myself) find somewhat mysterious.
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Rob, that is what a police officer wrote. There's no way of knowing whether she really did say that or whether the officer misunderstood. If she did say that, did she mean it figuratively (as in "many")? What is meant by "missing"? All categories? Time-frame: missing for a few hours... years?
We have a few threads floating around somewhere on the general subject of missing / abducted kids.
It is a signed statement "No more was said. Reads, ratifies, signs." So I do believe that is pretty much what she said. She obviously was confused by the stats for sure, for only 33% of missing kids are abducted to begin with, but by the time she appeared on the scene it was 15 hours later and the interview with the police was later still (14/Nov/2007 if I understood it correctly), so is this delay affecting the type of missing child case. By that stage Madeleine isn't still "just sleeping under a tree". It is a more serious case by this stage. I don't know if there are studies looking at the cause of missing children plotted against time.
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do you really not understand how to apply the statistics
I started this thread to give you the opportunity to teach me "how to apply the statistics". The floor is yours.
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I started this thread to give you the opportunity to teach me "how to apply the statistics". The floor is yours.
I think everybody understands how to apply statistics apart from you..im not here to teach you something so simple
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I think everybody understands how to apply statistics apart from you..im not here to teach you something so simple
Were you going to give Faithlilly the same answer if she had started the thread? You wanted her to start a thread.
Should there be studies looking at the cause of missing children plotted against the time passed since they were last seen?
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Were you going to give Faithlilly the same answer if she had started the thread? You wanted her to start a thread.
Should there be studies looking at the cause of missing children plotted against the time passed since they were last seen?
since then you have criticised my knowledge of statistics and now asked me to teach you to apply it..
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Were you going to give Faithlilly the same answer if she had started the thread? You wanted her to start a thread.
Should there be studies looking at the cause of missing children plotted against the time passed since they were last seen?
In which country? Which countries have a centralised database of common criteria between various forces over how long a period of time?
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In which country? Which countries have a centralised database of common criteria between various forces over how long a period of time?
I'd imagine the study is best done in the USA. Hourly for the first 24 hours and daily for a week, then weekly for a month, then monthly for a year, is my suggestion
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I'd imagine the study is best done in the USA. Hourly for the first 24 hours and daily for a week, then weekly for a month, then monthly for a year, is my suggestion
Why? Do the characteristics surrounding missing children, including definitions, but also broad demographics, in the US correspond to those in Portugal?
And how would that correlate to YM's alleged assertion?
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Why? Do the characteristics surrounding missing children, including definitions, but also broad demographics, in the US correspond to those in Portugal?
And how would that correlate to YM's alleged assertion?
They would be indicators and I think it would be similar across the world (IMO). Otherwise every country would have to provide stats and that is very unlikely to happen.
"And how would that correlate to YM's alleged assertion?" Hopefully it would show she was wrong.
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They would indicators and I think it would be similar across the world IMO. Otherwise every country would have to provide stats and that is very unlikely to happen.
"And how would that correlate to YM's alleged assertion?" Hopefully it would show she was wrong.
Why ?
Is it not important to identify the guilty, irrespective of who they might be?
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They would indicators and I think it would be similar across the world IMO. Otherwise every country would have to provide stats and that is very unlikely to happen.
"And how would that correlate to YM's alleged assertion?" Hopefully it would show she was wrong.
the assertion she allegedly made was reasonable as far as know...the majority of child abductions involve custody disputes....what is wrong is to use that figure to try and suggest guilt on specific parents
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They would indicators and I think it would be similar across the world IMO. Otherwise every country would have to provide stats and that is very unlikely to happen.
"And how would that correlate to YM's alleged assertion?" Hopefully it would show she was wrong.
In Asia? Africa? South America?
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the assertion she allegedly made was reasonable as far as know...the majority of child abductions involve custody disputes....what is wrong is to use that figure to try and suggest guilt on specific parents
What she's alleged to have said was "missing", not abducted.
ETA: I'm wondering if that could be one for the potential lost-in-misunderstanding list...
ETA 2: Rob, why does the thread title state "abduction", when what YM is alleged to have said is "missing"?
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What she's alleged to have said was "missing", not abducted.
ETA: I'm wondering if that could be one for the potential lost-in-misunderstanding list...
ETA 2: Rob, why does the thread title state "abduction", when what YM is alleged to have said is "missing"?
It was a deliberately provocative title to try and get Davel to explain his theory on the stats - it nearly worked.
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In Asia? Africa? South America?
Some countries child abduction and selling of children to slavery could be part of the economy, I don't know. The problem could be so widespread there is no way to control it or to begin making an effort to count the cases and causes to begin with.
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the assertion she allegedly made was reasonable as far as know...the majority of child abductions involve custody disputes....what is wrong is to use that figure to try and suggest guilt on specific parents
She asked an important question, clearing the ground beneath your feet, as the expression was. She got an answer and later that answer appeared to be 100% correct Gerry is Madeleine's biological father so you can rule out one of the major causes of young child abductions - the actions of the biological father.
It was the reaction of the 3 persons that she spoke to that she found was aggressive. It was their reaction that sparked suspicion.
"She first found them aggressive and their reaction after she showed Madeleine's parents her credentials, also seemed strange to her. Afterwards she was informed that there were no signs of a break-in in the apartment. Knowing that they are doctors she found it absolutely abnormal that they left their children alone at home. Associating all of this with her professional experience, which tells her that in 99.99 % of missing children cases, the parents or other family members are involved, she felt it was her duty to inform the police of this."
She had ruled out break in. The McCanns were tending to say the doors were locked in the first instance, but only later admitted the patio door was unlocked. But we have extensively looked at the front door, and it was only locked from the outside. It could still be opened from the inside.
She found it "absolutely abnormal that they left their children alone at home". I think most of the UK still struggle with that. How she "associated all of this" is the issue for even I can't make sense out of it yet.
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Some countries child abduction and selling of children to slavery could be part of the economy, I don't know. The problem could be so widespread there is no way to control it or to begin making an effort to count the cases and causes to begin with.
Quite... So how would one go about comparing one country's situation, police criteria, legislation with another? I could make a long list of why I gave up: comparing apples and oranges doesn't even come close.
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Quite... So how would one go about comparing one country's situation, police criteria, legislation with another? I could make a long list of why I gave up: comparing apples and oranges doesn't even come close.
You are raising all these objections and not offering any solutions. What would make you think that Portugal would be that different to the USA?
Explain why if you object and we could adjust the stats accordingly, intelligently.
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the assertion she allegedly made was reasonable as far as know...the majority of child abductions involve custody disputes....what is wrong is to use that figure to try and suggest guilt on specific parents
Well you tell me since you know it all, what should the police and youth and family officers do with the information gained from population studies? Did Yvonne "suggest guilt on specific parents"?
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Well you tell me since you know it all, what should the police and youth and family officers do with the information gained from population studies? Did Yvonne "suggest guilt on specific parents"?
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She asked an important question, clearing the ground beneath your feet, as the expression was. She got an answer and later that answer appeared to be 100% correct Gerry is Madeleine's biological father so you can rule out one of the major causes of young child abductions - the actions of the biological father.
It was the reaction of the 3 persons that she spoke to that she found was aggressive. It was their reaction that sparked suspicion.
"She first found them aggressive and their reaction after she showed Madeleine's parents her credentials, also seemed strange to her. Afterwards she was informed that there were no signs of a break-in in the apartment. Knowing that they are doctors she found it absolutely abnormal that they left their children alone at home. Associating all of this with her professional experience, which tells her that in 99.99 % of missing children cases, the parents or other family members are involved, she felt it was her duty to inform the police of this."
She had ruled out break in. The McCanns were tending to say the doors were locked in the first instance, but only later admitted the patio door was unlocked. But we have extensively looked at the front door, and it was only locked from the outside. It could still be opened from the inside.
She found it "absolutely abnormal that they left their children alone at home". I think most of the UK still struggle with that. How she "associated all of this" is the issue for even I can't make sense out of it yet.
I wonder at what stage YM discovered the children were alone, as that fact was not mentioned on the early news reports.
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I wonder at what stage YM discovered the children were alone, as that fact was not mentioned on the early news reports.
Well I have just listened to the early news breaks and you are right. Yvonne got to PdL and had to ask for directions. It is possible there was some discussion as to the basic care of the children. I think Yvonne could understand Portuguese but maybe not speak it that well
"Name: YVONE WARREN MARTIN
Profession: Social Services and Child Protection
The witness is accompanied by a PJ interpreter, Carlos Moura, as she does not speak Portuguese."
So she could have been told the basic fact that they had been left alone while the parents went to dinner. It would have to be the result of someone speaking to her. Kate may have told her too.
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Well I have just listened to the early news breaks and you are right. Yvonne got to PdL and had to ask for directions. It is possible there was some discussion as to the basic care of the children. I think Yvonne could understand Portuguese but maybe not speak it that well
"Name: YVONE WARREN MARTIN
Profession: Social Services and Child Protection
The witness is accompanied by a PJ interpreter, Carlos Moura, as she does not speak Portuguese."
So she could have been told the basic fact that they had been left alone while the parents went to dinner. It would have to be the result of someone speaking to her. Kate may have told her too.
Logically we can therefore deduce that Mrs Martin's initial reason for going to Luz was something other than the childcare arrangements. I agree that it sounds as though Kate told her about the checking procedure in the course of their conversation.
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Logically we can therefore deduce that Mrs Martin's initial reason for going to Luz was something other than the childcare arrangements. I agree that it sounds as though Kate told her about the checking procedure in the course of their conversation.
She makes it clear what her intentions were:
"During the past month of May or more precisely on the 04th of May 2007, the witness was in Portugal, enjoying holidays, when at about 07H00 she turned on the television and watched an English news channel (BBC or SKY NEWS) where she saw an appeal to British citizens on holiday in the Algarve to offer all possible support to a British couple who were on holiday in Praia da Luz and whose daughter, a child, had disappeared on May 03, 2007.
As she works directly with situations of children at risk, and as she was very close to Praia da Luz, she went there with the intention of offering her help and support to the couple, she arrived there at about 09H30. "
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If we take the statistics, at face value then in the, interest of child safety all children should be removed from their parents and placed with complete strangers
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If we take the statistics, at face value then in the, interest of child safety all children should be removed from their parents and placed with complete strangers
Hopefully you don't work for the Child youth and Family welfare organisation.
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Hopefully you don't work for the Child youth and Family welfare organisation.
And hopefully you dont
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If we take the statistics, at face value then in the, interest of child safety all children should be removed from their parents and placed with complete strangers
No i would say, with family - that is if there safety was at risk.
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Hopefully you don't work for the Child youth and Family welfare organisation.
Or on That’s Life.
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Or on That’s Life.
We don't have that one here, but if what I see on YouTube Davel could be a bit too serious for that.
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Well if 99.9% of child abductions are due to the parents (as Yvonne Martin claimed) and their friends, does that mean statistically the McCanns and their friends were the ones that did it? Can stats be applied like this.
Davel is going to show us how to apply the statistics properly. I'm waiting to see it.
I have a feeling it really matters as to what you call the problem Is it a missing child, murdered child, abducted child, or a child that has just run away. Each category will have its own statistics. But are they related.
In this general knowledge article there already is a raft of different categories.
" But how common are child abductions?
The charity Action Against Abduction, formerly Pact, estimates that roughly 50 children under the age of 16 are abducted by strangers every year.
Its report Taken, which used data from UK police forces in 2011-12, found that 42% of all abduction attempts were made by strangers - and three quarters of the attempts were unsuccessful.
The average age of abducted children in the UK was 13, while the average age of children who suffered attempted abductions by non-parental perpetrators was 11, according to the report.
Action Against Abduction claims that most of these cases are sexually motivated, yet many attempted abductions are not reported to police.
However, offences by strangers are still quite rare - with the NSPCC pointing out that more than 90% of child sexual abuse is perpetrated by someone known to the child." http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-37504781
In the McCann case we have a child gone missing, we don't know if she was abducted, sexually abused, or murdered or anything really, so which study covers this type of missing child case?
Figures on sexual abuse, or on abductions don't really help. Do we need the stats as it applies to Portugal since it happened there?
You will probably find that the vast majority of that 99% relates to disputes between parents which results in one or other of the parents taking the child abroad. Thus we have the phenomena of parental abduction.
This is not what occurred in the case of Madeleine McCann so the statistics you quote really have no place in this case.
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You will probably find that the vast majority of that 99% relates to disputes between parents which results in one or other of the parents taking the child abroad. Thus we have the phenomena of parental abduction.
This is not what occurred in the case of Madeleine McCann so the statistics you quote really have no place in this case.
When Yvonne first approached the family maybe that did apply as it was not known at that time whether there was another parent that might have some claim to Madeleiene, once the parentage is known that percentage will drop. I have no idea how you would redo the percentages but there might be 5 or so criteria to eliminate before the likelihood of family and those known by the family being involved falls to zero.
Obviously one of the hurdles was making sure the friends of the family were not known sex offenders.
It is difficult to imagine how a 99.9% ratio is ever going to fall below 0.1%.
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from https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-reasons-people-kidnap-children
" According to the statistics reported by National Center for Missing and Exploited Children (NCMEC), family kidnapping is one of the most common reasons for a child to be reported missing and that over 200,000 cases of family kidnappings are reported each year in the United States.
Family kidnapping consists of kidnapping cases bring out by a family member, usually one of the parents. Mostly when a parent is in a relationship breakdown or in a custodial dispute, this act of desperation comes out. Parents who fear they will not be granted custody or will be prevented from seeing their kids see taking their children away as the only option open to them. Some of the desperate parents do it out of revenge for their partners.
The other two commonly seen kidnapping cases are acquaintance(58,000 cases/ year) and stranger(115 cases/ year) kidnappings. If you would like to know more about the facts and what you can do to prevent child abduction, please refer to our Kidnapping Prevention Guide.
"Parents' Guide to Preventing Child Abduction, Kidnapping, and Missing Children" https://www.kidguard.com/parents-guide-to-preventing-child-abduction-kidnapping-and-missing-children/
"Missing vs. Abducted
The numbers of missing children reported each year seem staggering. However, it’s important to note that most reported cases of missing children do not involve abduction and are resolved within hours.
Children are reported missing for many different reasons and missing children usually turn up unharmed within a very short period of time. In the majority of cases, there has been a simple miscommunication between the child and the parent. The child may have misunderstood the time they were expected home or they might have got the meeting place wrong. Another common reason for a child to go missing is if they have had an argument with their parents and have decided not to go home. Some children may simply have gotten lost."
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Here is something like the checklist I was hoping to find.
1. Your partner is angry about the breakdown of your relationship
2. Your partner has tried to obtain documents pertaining to the child, such as medical and school record
Keep records of child’s photograph, height, weight and fingerprints.
3 Don’t use child’s first name on labels for supplies.
4 Make a mental note each day of what your child is wearing.
5 Keep an up-to-date list of their friends’ names, phone numbers, email addresses and their parents’ contact information.
6. Check out references and know who they are when hiring a babysitter.
7 Accompany young children to the restroom when you are in a public place.
8 Tell your child who they should turn to in case of an emergency – identify a neighbor who can be trusted.
9 Establish an emergency plan in case your child gets lost. Identify a meeting place if convenient or tell them to stay put until you find them.
10 Make sure they memorize your number so they can ask someone to call you. Tell them never to go with a stranger to find you – you will come to them.
11 Know where your child is going and who they are with.
12 Tell them about the risks of abduction in an age appropriate way.
13 Communicate with your child! Try not to scare them, but make sure they take their own safety seriously.
14 Your partner tries to come between you and the child or turn the child against you
15 Your partner is angry about a custodial decision
16 Your partner has a history of violent behavior
17 Your partner has previously violated any court orders
has liquidated their assets and/or closed bank accounts
18 Your partner is hiding or destroying documents
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You will probably find that the vast majority of that 99% relates to disputes between parents which results in one or other of the parents taking the child abroad. Thus we have the phenomena of parental abduction.
This is not what occurred in the case of Madeleine McCann so the statistics you quote really have no place in this case.
John, what she is alleged to have said (not the term in the title) refers to "missing".
That makes no sense to me whatsoever. Is that supposed to mean that 99.% of parents / family members are responsible when a teen skips school for a few hours and was reported as "missing"?
NB: @ Rob, you seem to be attributing a term to her that she isn't even alleged to have said. Any chance of modifying the title?
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John, what she is alleged to have said (not the term in the title) refers to "missing".
That makes no sense to me whatsoever. Is that supposed to mean that 99.% of parents / family members are responsible when a teen skips school for a few hours and was reported as "missing"?
NB: @ Rob, you seem to be attributing a term to her that she isn't even alleged to have said. Any chance of modifying the title?
Not really because even though it is quoted in the file that she said "missing", she meant abducted (IMO) for the figures of 99.99% are only applicable to 33% of missing kids that are abductions.
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Not really because even though it is quoted in the file that she said "missing", she meant abducted (IMO) for the figures of 99.99% are only applicable to 33% of missing kids that are abductions.
According to which set of statistis in which country?
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According to which set of statistis in which country?
I have had to use the USA ones as no other country has done a similar breakdown that I can recall. The figures in her statement were from her own experience, not official studies either.
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I have had to use the USA ones as no other country has done a similar breakdown that I can recall. The figures in her statement were from her own experience, not official studies either.
I find the title of the thread misleading, Rob.
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I find the title of the thread misleading, Rob.
It is not that bad "The stats of Child abduction - 99.9% its due to the parents." In the studies done 99.9% of child abductions are done by the parents and the people known to the parents and just a very small percentage done by a stranger.
So if the McCanns insisted Madeleine was abducted from the beginning the stats themselves point the finger back onto the "parents and the people known to the parents". Blame the parents and the people known to the parents for an abduction and in 99.9% of cases you will be right. Why was the McCann case the odd one out?
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It is not that bad "The stats of Child abduction - 99.9% its due to the parents." In the studies done 99.9% of child abductions are done by the parents and the people known to the parents and just a very small percentage done by a stranger.
So if the McCanns insisted Madeleine was abducted from the beginning the stats themselves point the finger back onto the "parents and the people known to the parents". Blame the parents and the people known to the parents for an abduction and in 99.9% of cases you will be right. Why was the McCann case the odd one out?
I believe it has already been pointed out to you that child abduction cases seldom involve both parents acting unilaterally. The McCann case thus cannot fall within this particular set of statistics Rob so please stop claiming it does. The McCann case has absolutely nothing to do with parental abduction.
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It is not that bad "The stats of Child abduction - 99.9% its due to the parents." In the studies done 99.9% of child abductions are done by the parents and the people known to the parents and just a very small percentage done by a stranger.
So if the McCanns insisted Madeleine was abducted from the beginning the stats themselves point the finger back onto the "parents and the people known to the parents". Blame the parents and the people known to the parents for an abduction and in 99.9% of cases you will be right. Why was the McCann case the odd one out?
In my opinion the statistics you are using are not only meaningless they are an insult to every parent whose child has suffered abduction by a stranger many of whom, like Madeleine, have vanished without trace.
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In my opinion the statistics you are using are not only meaningless they are an insult to every parent whose child has suffered abduction by a stranger many of whom, like Madeleine, have vanished without trace.
Don't blame me for the figures they are figures used by the official agencies. The parents who's kid has been abducted by a stranger and has not yet been found Is OK.
It is the very few who disappear without a reason and a trace they have their own category - unexplained.
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I believe it has already been pointed out to you that child abduction cases seldom involve both parents acting unilaterally. The McCann case thus cannot fall within this particular set of statistics Rob so please stop claiming it does. The McCann case has absolutely nothing to do with parental abduction.
So Smithman wasn't Gerry McCann, are you absolutely certain of that?
I must have missed the post pointing out "that child abduction cases seldom involve both parents acting unilaterally" - can't remember that sorry.
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Rob, read your post again....
http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=9239.msg450331#msg450331
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Why ?
Is it not important to identify the guilty, irrespective of who they might be?
I'm just saying she might hopefully be wrong about her stats.
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Rob, read your post again....
http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=9239.msg450331#msg450331
I have read the whole thread again and I stand by what I have have said. Every part is cited from somewhere.
What in particular about #5 is important?
Was it this bit "OK that is just 115 out of nearly 800,000 missing kids that were abducted by strangers or just over the 1 in 10,000 but looking at the total of the family and those known to the family it does not come to anywhere the total of 797,500, in fact [that adds to just] 262,100 out of [the] 797500 [or just] 32.86520376% [of the total] So abducted kids is only about 33% of the missing kids, the rest are runaways and throwaways."
It was not explained what the other 540,000 case were due to. I guessed they were "runaways and throwaways" (words they used to begin with).
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I made an oblique reference to this appalling tragedy in another post and I am citing it here to illustrate that great care must be taken when applying statistics to real cases.
In my opinion it epitomises the circumstances of many of the tragedies consistent with parental abduction. None of which are applicable to Madeleine's situation or to her parents and their friends.
Therefore it follows that entirely the wrong statistics are being referred to in any discussion involving Madeleine McCann.
https://www.dn.pt/mundo/interior/policia-britanica-investiga-morte-de-familia-portuguesa-em-londres-9176037.html
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I made an oblique reference to this appalling tragedy in another post and I am citing it here to illustrate that great care must be taken when applying statistics to real cases.
In my opinion it epitomises the circumstances of many of the tragedies consistent with parental abduction. None of which are applicable to Madeleine's situation or to her parents and their friends.
Therefore it follows that entirely the wrong statistics are being referred to in any discussion involving Madeleine McCann.
https://www.dn.pt/mundo/interior/policia-britanica-investiga-morte-de-familia-portuguesa-em-londres-9176037.html
What can I say then, if you are of the opinion none of the extensive analysis of the cases and the formation of the Missing Children stats has any relationship to the McCann case.
Have you considered Madeleine maybe one of the very few who are abducted by a stranger, it is rare but it does happen at the rate of 1 in 10,000 cases (USA figures). We can't rule that out.
In fact Madeleine fits into the rarest category - the unknown cause.
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What can I say then, if you are of the opinion none of the extensive analysis of the cases and the formation of the Missing Children stats has any relationship to the McCann case.
Have you considered Madeleine maybe one of the very few who are abducted by a stranger, it is rare but it does happen at the rate of 1 in 10,000 cases (USA figures). We can't rule that out.
In fact Madeleine fits into the rarest category - the unknown cause.
One is enough. One is still a statistic.
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What can I say then, if you are of the opinion none of the extensive analysis of the cases and the formation of the Missing Children stats has any relationship to the McCann case.
Have you considered Madeleine maybe one of the very few who are abducted by a stranger, it is rare but it does happen at the rate of 1 in 10,000 cases (USA figures). We can't rule that out.
In fact Madeleine fits into the rarest category - the unknown cause.
There are British statistics for stranger abduction the most up to date of which show an alarming increasing trend.
In my opinion I think you may be concentrating too much on entirely the wrong statistics and the wrong analysis which perhaps may or may not owe much to McCann hostile fora.
The stats for stranger abduction are easy to find as are the stats for solved cases sometimes ending in the recovery of the victim alive but more often not.
Perhaps it is owed to this forum to have a look at more ground breaking and relative information uncontaminated by the mistakes of the past.
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There are British statistics for stranger abduction the most up to date of which show an alarming increasing trend.
In my opinion I think you may be concentrating too much on entirely the wrong statistics and the wrong analysis which perhaps may or may not owe much to McCann hostile fora.
The stats for stranger abduction are easy to find as are the stats for solved cases sometimes ending in the recovery of the victim alive but more often not.
Perhaps it is owed to this forum to have a look at more ground breaking and relative information uncontaminated by the mistakes of the past.
The first step is to work out what incidents are contained within your population.
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There are British statistics for stranger abduction the most up to date of which show an alarming increasing trend.
In my opinion I think you may be concentrating too much on entirely the wrong statistics and the wrong analysis which perhaps may or may not owe much to McCann hostile fora.
The stats for stranger abduction are easy to find as are the stats for solved cases sometimes ending in the recovery of the victim alive but more often not.
Perhaps it is owed to this forum to have a look at more ground breaking and relative information uncontaminated by the mistakes of the past.
What is an increasingly worrying trend ? What magnitude of increase are you talking about?
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What is an increasingly worrying trend ? What magnitude of increase are you talking about?
Comparison of data from the published returns from 2012/13 and 2013/14 were compared with the figures provided for 2014/15 as a result of a FOI request to every police force in the UK made by "Action Against Abduction".
For 2014/15 it was found that in England, Northern Ireland and Wales in total there were 1,141 kidnapping and child abduction offences recorded.
Increases in non-parental child abductions were recorded at 47% and non-parental child kidnapping at 18%.
In my opinion those are huge increases in a short space of time which cannot be accounted for by a change in recording procedures. It is a crime which is on the increase and any increase in crime targeted at children is a worrying trend indeed as far as I am concerned.
http://childabduction.org.uk/index.php/publications/police-recorded-child-abduction-and-kidnapping-2013-to-2016
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Comparison of data from the published returns from 2012/13 and 2013/14 were compared with the figures provided for 2014/15 as a result of a FOI request to every police force in the UK made by "Action Against Abduction".
For 2014/15 it was found that in England, Northern Ireland and Wales in total there were 1,141 kidnapping and child abduction offences recorded.
Increases in non-parental child abductions were recorded at 47% and non-parental child kidnapping at 18%.
In my opinion those are huge increases in a short space of time which cannot be accounted for by a change in recording procedures. It is a crime which is on the increase and any increase in crime targeted at children is a worrying trend indeed as far as I am concerned.
http://childabduction.org.uk/index.php/publications/police-recorded-child-abduction-and-kidnapping-2013-to-2016
From the report quoted.
Why has non‐parental child abduction increased?
15 police forces were asked to provide further information about why non‐parental child
abductions had increased in their area. Responses were received from 13 (many offering more
than one reason).
● 11 indicated that improvements in the response to Child Sexual Exploitation (CSE) had
contributed to the increase. Greater awareness and training wasreported to have led to more
offences been reported and to police being more likely to record an offence. Some police
forces suggested that a greater use of Child Abduction Warning Notices may have led to an
increase in offences recorded.
● Five police forces provided data on the proportion of non‐parental child abductions which
involved CSE in 2014/15: four ranged from 65 to 78 per cent; one was 42 per cent. Two police
forces provided comparable data for the previous year. One police force reported that the
proportion of CSE cases had increased from 37 per cent in 2013/14 to 67 per cent in 2014/15
(albeit with relatively low numbers). The other police force reported an increase from 54 per
cent in 2013/14 to 65 per cent in 2014/15 (with much larger numbers).
● Eight police forcessuggested improvementsin crime recording and greater adherence to the
National Crime Recording Standard guidelines had impacted on the number of offences
recorded. Many police forces stressed that, as a result, the number of offences better reflects
the true scale of the problem. Two police forces suggested that stricter crime recording
processes may have ensured that incidents which would previously have not met an
‘evidential’ threshold to be recorded were now been recorded as a crime.
● Two police forces indicated that a recent focus on intervening in cases of forced marriage
may have increased the number of non‐parental child abductions recorded, although neither
offered any quantitative analysis.
Maybe a lot to do with the way these things are now recorded, rather that a staggering increase in actual cases.
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Am I the only person who thinks that what the police officer wrote down for her statement could be a misunderstanding?
"She first found them aggressive and their reaction after she showed Madeleine's parents her credentials, also seemed strange to her. Afterwards she was informed that there were no signs of a break-in in the apartment. Knowing that they are doctors she found it absolutely abnormal that they left their children alone at home. Associating all of this with her professional experience, which tells her that in 99.99 % of missing children cases, the parents or other family members are involved, she felt it was her duty to inform the police of this."
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Has anyone found reliable Portuguese statistics of missing children?
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Am I the only person who thinks that what the police officer wrote down for her statement could be a misunderstanding?
"She first found them aggressive and their reaction after she showed Madeleine's parents her credentials, also seemed strange to her. Afterwards she was informed that there were no signs of a break-in in the apartment. Knowing that they are doctors she found it absolutely abnormal that they left their children alone at home. Associating all of this with her professional experience, which tells her that in 99.99 % of missing children cases, the parents or other family members are involved, she felt it was her duty to inform the police of this."
Do we actually have to consider the opinion of Yvonne Martin? Who ultimately proved nothing at all. Beyond a penchant for sending anonymous letters.
This in itself was disgusting, and totally unprofessional. God might help the rest of the families that she had to deal with.
I hope that she was censored.
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Am I the only person who thinks that what the police officer wrote down for her statement could be a misunderstanding?
"She first found them aggressive and their reaction after she showed Madeleine's parents her credentials, also seemed strange to her. Afterwards she was informed that there were no signs of a break-in in the apartment. Knowing that they are doctors she found it absolutely abnormal that they left their children alone at home. Associating all of this with her professional experience, which tells her that in 99.99 % of missing children cases, the parents or other family members are involved, she felt it was her duty to inform the police of this."
Yes I have agreed with you the word should have been "abducted" not "missing" but we can only attribute that to Yvonne as she read her statement and signed it, unless there is a translation error in the Portuguese back to English. Is the word in the Portuguese PJ statement "missing"?
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Do we actually have to consider the opinion of Yvonne Martin? Who ultimately proved nothing at all. Beyond a penchant for sending anonymous letters.
This in itself was disgusting, and totally unprofessional. God might help the rest of the families that she had to deal with.
I hope that she was censored.
Until proven otherwise, I think the "anonymous letter" is probably an online form sent to Crimestoppers. I have no problem with that.
I find it highly unlikely that she'd have actually stated that in 99.9% of missing child cases that parents or family are involved. That can't possibly be correct: kids of all ages, including teens who skip class long enough to be reported as "missing".
Or the police officer misunderstood.
I always get the flak when I raise the issue that what a police officer wrote may not necessarily be what the person said, but I'd still be interested if anyone has a more logical potential explanation.
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Until proven otherwise, I think the "anonymous letter" is probably an online form sent to Crimestoppers. I have no problem with that.
I find it highly unlikely that she'd have actually stated that in 99.9% of missing child cases that parents or family are involved. That can't possibly be correct: kids of all ages, including teens who skip class long enough to be reported as "missing".
Or the police officer misunderstood.
I always get the flak when I raise the issue that what a police officer wrote may not necessarily be what the person said, but I'd still be interested if anyone has a more logical potential explanation.
As per post #61, can’t compare apples and oranges.
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Until proven otherwise, I think the "anonymous letter" is probably an online form sent to Crimestoppers. I have no problem with that.
I find it highly unlikely that she'd have actually stated that in 99.9% of missing child cases that parents or family are involved. That can't possibly be correct: kids of all ages, including teens who skip class long enough to be reported as "missing".
Or the police officer misunderstood.
I always get the flak when I raise the issue that what a police officer wrote may not necessarily be what the person said, but I'd still be interested if anyone has a more logical potential explanation.
I bow to your greater kindness. But I am not interested in what Yvonne Martin might have said. The fact remains that she suspected The McCanns on Day One when she had no proof of anything.
For a Professional this is simply not good enough.
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I bow to your greater kindness. But I am not interested in what Yvonne Martin might have said. The fact remains that she suspected The McCanns on Day One when she had no proof of anything.
For a Professional this is simply not good enough.
You don't have to have proof to suspect someone you just need suspicion.
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As per post #61, can’t compare apples and oranges.
not #61
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You don't have to have proof to suspect someone you just need suspicion.
Only if you are a Police Officer involved in The Case. But even they keep their mouths shut.
I remain entirely appalled by this woman.
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not #61
Yes #61
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As per post #61, can’t compare apples and oranges.
"The first step is to work out what incidents are contained within your population." So the incidents will be the apples and oranges.
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"The first step is to work out what incidents are contained within your population." So the incidents will be the apples and oranges.
You need to select from all crimes that take place those the share similarities with the McCann case and count them. You can then look at the nature of those crimes and count those to produce a probability for each crime.
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I bow to your greater kindness. But I am not interested in what Yvonne Martin might have said. The fact remains that she suspected The McCanns on Day One when she had no proof of anything.
For a Professional this is simply not good enough.
I'm interested as so many people seem to refute the idea that anything in a statement could have been misunderstood.
Re her reaction... No, it's not "kindness", I'm just trying to imagine it from her perspective: Situation: missing child. And then she may well have gone through the mental drill of whatever could have caused it and simply didn't take time for the "human touch".
From the parents' and DP's perspective, it was the immediate aftermath, presumably with all kinds of unfamiliar people turning up, calls from all over the place, plus getting organised to go to the police station, press starting to swarm and the whole thing was a chaotic nightmare.
It's actually rare that any of these details would be splashed all over the Internet anyway, unless it was courtroom evidence.
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You need to select from all crimes that take place those the share similarities with the McCann case and count them. You can then look at the nature of those crimes and count those to produce a probability for each crime.
Sounds easy enough till you get cases like the McCann case that can't be solved even after 11 years.
As I was saying earlier I would like to see stats that show how quickly missing children cases are resolved and whether the type of cause affects that.
A case where a child has wandered off and fallen into a drain could end up being unsolved.
A case where a child is abducted by a stranger and kept chained up in a basement could also be hard to solve.
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When Yvonne first approached the family maybe that did apply as it was not known at that time whether there was another parent that might have some claim to Madeleiene, once the parentage is known that percentage will drop. I have no idea how you would redo the percentages but there might be 5 or so criteria to eliminate before the likelihood of family and those known by the family being involved falls to zero.
Obviously one of the hurdles was making sure the friends of the family were not known sex offenders.
It is difficult to imagine how a 99.9% ratio is ever going to fall below 0.1%.
Statistics really don't have any place in what was potentially a child abduction case. It is accepted that most missing children cases involve runaways or parental disputes, you only need to have a look at the current list of missing children in the UK to work that one out. Stranger abduction is a completely different matter but fortunately accounts for an extremely small percentage of missing children cases in the UK.
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Statistics really don't have any place in what was potentially a child abduction case. It is accepted that most missing children cases involve runaways or parental disputes, you only need to have a look at the current list of missing children in the UK to work that one out. Stranger abduction is a completely different matter but fortunately accounts for an extremely small percentage of missing children cases in the UK.
Statistics only give a starting point to look at the most likely causes without obvious evidence and the population is all cases where a young child is reported missing.
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Statistics really don't have any place in what was potentially a child abduction case. It is accepted that most missing children cases involve runaways or parental disputes, you only need to have a look at the current list of missing children in the UK to work that one out. Stranger abduction is a completely different matter but fortunately accounts for an extremely small percentage of missing children cases in the UK.
OK your answer depended on stats e.g. "Stranger abduction is a completely different matter but fortunately accounts for an extremely small percentage of missing children cases in the UK."
When a child goes missing you have no idea what category it will ultimately fit into. So I think you have to eliminate the most frequent occurrences first.
How you do that would need to be worked out, but in my previous role we would have decision trees. You start at the top and work your way through it. And even that would have it pitfalls if the people supplying the answers can't be believed.
Q. When did you last see Madeleine? A. Gerry answers "9:07 she was laying on her bed uncovered" .
Decision tree: Do you believe him? Yes or No. Decision time!
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OK your answer depended on stats e.g. "Stranger abduction is a completely different matter but fortunately accounts for an extremely small percentage of missing children cases in the UK."
When a child goes missing you have no idea what category it will ultimately fit into. So I think you have to eliminate the most frequent occurrences first.
How you do that would need to be worked out, but in my previous role we would have decision trees. You start at the top and work your way through it. And even that would have it pitfalls if the people supplying the answers can't be believed.
Q. When did you last see Madeleine? A. Gerry answers "9:07 she was laying on her bed uncovered" .
Decision tree: Do you believe him? Yes or No. Decision time!
If I say no, is that libel?
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(https://images.sampletemplates.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/decision-tree-analysis.jpg)
That was the type of decision tree we used to work with, and each point had a different function and this was reflected in the shape of the decision , was it square , rectangle , circle etc, I forget now but it was all very serious.
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If I say no, is that libel?
I was hoping you would play the role of the decision maker, OK you don't believe Gerry. What do you do next?
These are the sort of decisions GA had to make. Decisions to be made at the time too not years later
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OK your answer depended on stats e.g. "Stranger abduction is a completely different matter but fortunately accounts for an extremely small percentage of missing children cases in the UK."
When a child goes missing you have no idea what category it will ultimately fit into. So I think you have to eliminate the most frequent occurrences first.
How you do that would need to be worked out, but in my previous role we would have decision trees. You start at the top and work your way through it. And even that would have it pitfalls if the people supplying the answers can't be believed.
Q. When did you last see Madeleine? A. Gerry answers "9:07 she was laying on her bed uncovered" .
Decision tree: Do you believe him? Yes or No. Decision time!
no it isnt decision time......decision time comes later...but a decision has to be made...do you believe the parents and it looks like both investiagtions do
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no it isnt decision time......decision time comes later...but a decision has to be made...do you believe the parents and it looks like both investiagtions do
Missing the point completely. This decision is to clear the ground beneath your feet. Pretend to be Yvonne Martin how are you going to help solve the case?
No one in any of the police forces tell us specifically whether they believe Gerry on any specific point.
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Missing the point completely. This decision is to clear the ground beneath your feet. Pretend to be Yvonne Martin how are you going to help solve the case?
No one in any of the police forces tell us specifically whether they believe Gerry on any specific point.
Yvonne Martin had no role in solving the case...If the mccanns are not suspects then the police must believe them
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Yvonne Martin had no role in solving the case...If the mccanns are not suspects then the police must believe them
That must be one of the most incorrect statements you have ever made "If the mccanns are not suspects then the police must believe them".
If that was true: A kid is missing. The police turn up to question the parents. Every statement the parents make is believed by the investigating officers.
That didn't happen in this case.
What should happen IMO "A kid is missing. The police turn up to question the parents. Every statement the parents make is assessed whether it is true or false by the investigating officers.
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Remember Gerry was telling the PJ that both he and Kate entered the apartment through the front door using the key. Problem with that is Kate would have noticed the shutters were up and the window was open before she entered the apartment at 10:00 PM.
So decision time do the PJ believe Gerry on this point? Decision - NO.
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Remember Gerry was telling the PJ that both he and Kate entered the apartment through the front door using the key. Problem with that is Kate would have noticed the shutters were up and the window was open before she entered the apartment at 10:00 PM.
So decision time do the PJ believe Gerry on this point? Decision - NO.
Yet again, there's no way of knowing whether he said that or whether there was a misunderstanding and someone got mixed up.
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Yet again, there's no way of knowing whether he said that or whether there was a misunderstanding and someone got mixed up.
I suppose that can be part of the decision tree. Was it True or false? Or could there have been a misunderstanding? Make a clarification. Would you ever get out of the loop >> "Or could there have been a misunderstanding? " How many times would you need to check each answer for a misunderstanding?
Scenario:
Kid goes missing, Police turn up and ask a question, answer is given, could that be a misunderstanding? ask the question again, answer is given, could that be a misunderstanding? ask the question again, answer is given, could that be a misunderstanding ask the question again?, ...... you might never get out of a loop like that.
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I suppose that can be part of the decision tree. Was it True or false? Or could there have been a misunderstanding? Make a clarification. Would you ever get out of the loop >> "Or could there have been a misunderstanding? " How many times would you need to check each answer for a misunderstanding?
Scenario:
Kid goes missing, Police turn up and ask a question, answer is given, could that be a misunderstanding? ask the question again, answer is given, could that be a misunderstanding? ask the question again, answer is given, could that be a misunderstanding ask the question again?, ...... you might never get out of a loop like that.
That might be why the situation was clarified in the second interview...
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That might be why the situation was clarified in the second interview...
Well did the PJ feel that everyone had answered their questions correctly after the 2nd round of interviews? Maybe not so great as they asked for a third round, which from what I read yesterday confirmed to the PJ they weren't telling the truth (more inconsistencies they reckoned. Where was that now?
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That must be one of the most incorrect statements you have ever made "If the mccanns are not suspects then the police must believe them".
If that was true: A kid is missing. The police turn up to question the parents. Every statement the parents make is believed by the investigating officers.
That didn't happen in this case.
What should happen IMO "A kid is missing. The police turn up to question the parents. Every statement the parents make is assessed whether it is true or false by the investigating officers.
It's not just what people say.
He found the parents to be nervous and anxious, he did not see any tears from either of them although they produced noises identical to crying.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/JOSE_ROQUE.htm
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It's not just what people say.
He found the parents to be nervous and anxious, he did not see any tears from either of them although they produced noises identical to crying.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/JOSE_ROQUE.htm
Yes they would be looking for other signs that would help them decide - so they can progress through the decision tree.
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Found some figures about missing children in Portugal (courtesy of Paul Reis)
The "Algarve Daily News" journalist who wrote this story either is a ignorant or has manipulated the information about missing children in Portugal, when he wrote "Even though Portugal is generally a safe country for children, thousands go missing each year. The great majority are found but a significant number are not. Unfortunately, the figures are vague and incomplete." - THIS IS FALSE!!! There are 8 MISSING CHILDREN IN PORTUGAL, FROM 1994 UNTIL NOW.
“PJ investigates an average of two disappearances of children every day, mostly teenagers running away from home. Every year an average of 750 disappearances are reported, most of them teenager girls, between 14 and 17 years. The cases usually are solved in around five days.” - in “Diário de Notícias”, may 21 2008
The story published by algarvedailynews.com is a piece of shit, concerning facts about missing children in Portugal. Since 1994 there are 8 MISSING CHILDREN CASES STILL OPEN. Algarvedailynews.com is lying, when they write that “(...) in Portugal (..) thousands [of children] go missing each year” - only an average of 750 CASES OF MISSING UNDERAGED PERSONS ARE REPORTED TO PJ, every year. The algarvedaily.news is lying again, when they write that “a significant number [of those missing children] are not [found]. For the last 18 YEARS, 8 CHILDREN missing in Portugal (including Madeleine McCann) have not been found. All the others were found.
https://gazetadigitalmadeleinecase.blogspot.co.nz/2012/07/another-fake-story-about-missing.html
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It's not just what people say.
He found the parents to be nervous and anxious, he did not see any tears from either of them although they produced noises identical to crying.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/JOSE_ROQUE.htm
I don't know about anyone else but having been disgusted by the risible and mocking portrayal of grief stricken parents in the Amaral documentary ... I find the constant repetition tiresome in the extreme.
Is there a manual for how parents are supposed to vent their anguish in a situation like the one Madeleine's parents were in? We know how the sheer despair was reproduced in the Amaral documentary. What exactly is it you are trying to say with the extract you have chosen to quote?
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That might be why the situation was clarified in the second interview...
In the second interview Gerry admitted being mistaken so not sure how it can be termed a ‘misunderstanding’ ?
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In the second interview Gerry admitted being mistaken so not sure how it can be termed a ‘misunderstanding’ ?
Cite... It looks like you are the one who is mistaken
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In the second interview Gerry admitted being mistaken so not sure how it can be termed a ‘misunderstanding’ ?
The statement doesn't state that Gerry admitted to being mistaken:
"Despite what he said in his previous statements, he states now and with certainty, that he left with KATE by the rear door which he consequently closed but did not lock given that that is only possible from the inside."
He may have been, just as it could have been a diplomatic way of expressing that the first PJ officer or interpreter had.
The point was to clarify the issue.
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The statement doesn't state that Gerry admitted to being mistaken:
"Despite what he said in his previous statements, he states now and with certainty, that he left with KATE by the rear door which he consequently closed but did not lock given that that is only possible from the inside."
He may have been, just as it could have been a diplomatic way of expressing that the first PJ officer or interpreter had.
The point was to clarify the issue.
Or it may be, as seems more likely, just what it seems, an individual correcting something in a previous statement.
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Or it may be, as seems more likely, just what it seems, an individual correcting something in a previous statement.
As I said, Gerry may have been mistaken, but that's not the only potential explanation, as I've pointed out numerous times.
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I don't know about anyone else but having been disgusted by the risible and mocking portrayal of grief stricken parents in the Amaral documentary ... I find the constant repetition tiresome in the extreme.
Is there a manual for how parents are supposed to vent their anguish in a situation like the one Madeleine's parents were in? We know how the sheer despair was reproduced in the Amaral documentary. What exactly is it you are trying to say with the extract you have chosen to quote?
I have no intention of ignoring evidence just because another poster doesn't like it.
My point was that policemen don't just take notice of what people say, as was being discussed, they observe how they behave too.
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I have no intention of ignoring evidence just because another poster doesn't like it.
My point was that policemen don't just take notice of what people say, as was being discussed, they observe how they behave too.
I agree with the last bit... in theory, providing that there is sufficient training and experience.
In the only other missing child case that some of the initial team had investigated, the fact that a mother appeared on TV in an appeal, wearing a black top and red trousers, was considered to be highly suspicious, even though there is at least one photo on the Internet in which she'd worn the same outfit on a prior occasion.
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As I said, Gerry may have been mistaken, but that's not the only potential explanation, as I've pointed out numerous times.
There may be numerous explanations but one is that Gerry said exactly what was reported then thought better of it. Don’t you agree ?
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There may be numerous explanations but one is that Gerry said exactly what was reported then thought better of it. Don’t you agree ?
I don't recall ever saying that that wasn't a possibility amongst several.
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I don't recall ever saying that that wasn't a possibility amongst several.
You’ll agree the most probable?
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You’ll agree the most probable?
if you are a sceptic
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if you are a sceptic
No simply if you read what is on the page.
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You’ll agree the most probable?
No. A possibility and, in context, not very high on my list.
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No. A possibility and, in context, not very high on my list.
Why did Gerry correct it if the slip was of no consequence?
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I have no intention of ignoring evidence just because another poster doesn't like it.
My point was that policemen don't just take notice of what people say, as was being discussed, they observe how they behave too.
Is it normal for police to make fun of distressed individuals they have been called to assist? Is it normal for the person in charge of the investigation at the time to compound that ridicule by making and appearing in a documentary ridiculing the anguish of victims.
In my opinion such misinterpretation and mockery by the authorities is worthy of regard when taking into consideration the stated opinions of the policemen who quite clearly hadn't grasped the nettle of being witness to untold grief and despair.
Bearing in mind these were the same policemen who we are informed, failed to follow a superior order to cordon off the scene.
Madeleine may have been considered a one off statistic by those not in the know of the disappearance of Joana Cipriano on 12 September 2004 from Figueira just a short distance from Luz.
Two children vanishing without trace from such nearby locations should in my opinion have concentrated investigative minds into more than describing distressing scenes they quite patently failed to understand.
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Why did Gerry correct it if the slip was of no consequence?
How many times have we been over this same ground? How does it fit into missing children and statistics?
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Why did Gerry correct it if the slip was of no consequence?
Perhaps because whichever police officers reading through the previous statement found that it didn't make sense, particularly in view of Kate's one just after his, and wanted clarification?
Which modern police force doesn't allow for potential misunderstandings to be clarified?
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Is it normal for police to make fun of distressed individuals they have been called to assist? Is it normal for the person in charge of the investigation at the time to compound that ridicule by making and appearing in a documentary ridiculing the anguish of victims.
In my opinion such misinterpretation and mockery by the authorities is worthy of regard when taking into consideration the stated opinions of the policemen who quite clearly hadn't grasped the nettle of being witness to untold grief and despair.
Bearing in mind these were the same policemen who we are informed, failed to follow a superior order to cordon off the scene.
Madeleine may have been considered a one off statistic by those not in the know of the disappearance of Joana Cipriano on 12 September 2004 from Figueira just a short distance from Luz.
Two children vanishing without trace from such nearby locations should in my opinion have concentrated investigative minds into more than describing distressing scenes they quite patently failed to understand.
You weren't there, so, you can't possibly know if the McCanns actions were either genuine or convincing.
I've just watched the relevant part of the greatest documentary ever made & I don't have a problem with it myself, I rather like it actually.
The actors perform what was described by the GNR officers, praying like Arabs & making crying noises, minus any real tears.
https://youtu.be/x_ZdDTsFC2g?t=425
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You weren't there, so, you can't possibly know if the McCanns actions were either genuine or convincing.
I've just watched the relevant part of the greatest documentary ever made & I don't have a problem with it myself, I rather like it actually.
The actors perform what was described by the GNR officers, praying like Arabs & making crying noises, minus any real tears.
https://youtu.be/x_ZdDTsFC2g?t=425
Propaganda video!
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Is it normal for police to make fun of distressed individuals they have been called to assist? Is it normal for the person in charge of the investigation at the time to compound that ridicule by making and appearing in a documentary ridiculing the anguish of victims.
In my opinion such misinterpretation and mockery by the authorities is worthy of regard when taking into consideration the stated opinions of the policemen who quite clearly hadn't grasped the nettle of being witness to untold grief and despair.
Bearing in mind these were the same policemen who we are informed, failed to follow a superior order to cordon off the scene.
Madeleine may have been considered a one off statistic by those not in the know of the disappearance of Joana Cipriano on 12 September 2004 from Figueira just a short distance from Luz.
Two children vanishing without trace from such nearby locations should in my opinion have concentrated investigative minds into more than describing distressing scenes they quite patently failed to understand.
That's not making fun of people in my opinion. Giving people stupid nicknames is making fun of them.
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That's not making fun of people in my opinion. Giving people stupid nicknames is making fun of them.
You mean like 'Pinkie' ?
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Please note the thread title is ... Missing children and the statistics. ... Please stay on topic, if not, expect your post to be deleted.
Thank you
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The point is that one way or the other the police ought to be working their way through the decision tree, but the most important thing to remember was that from the USA figures 66% of kids are missing because they have left for some reason of their own, the runaway and throwaway category, so if that is the case in Portugal it seems correct that the first emphasis needs to be check for that type of scenario first.
Reassess the situation after the first 24 hours as the balance of probabilities has changed in favour of the causes that someone might not own up to. (IMO this is what would be the case)
IMO I think it appears it was handled correctly by the PJ so far i.e. the first 24 hours.
With the arrival of the FLO officers and other support staff who in some ways will report information back to the PJ.
If most of the wandering off situations are resolved within a few hours the balance of probable cause swings around to the 33% that are abductions.
The question then becomes another decision do the PJ make the Tapas 9 and Jeremy Wilkins all arguidos from that point on, or have a more gentler approach and hope that information comes out in the witness interviews. That would mean the apartment was fully forensically examined at this stage (weeks earlier than it was).
IMO maybe there would have been an advantage making them all arguidos, and asking them the real hard questions within 48 hours of Madeleine going missing. But we can't turn the clock back.
I can see that would be frustrating for Kate and Gerry who favoured the abduction scenario within 15 minutes of the alarm being raised. (Reserved opinion: To me that suggests some knowledge about the situation that is not openly explained.)
For if the PJ only start thinking in terms of abduction 48 hours or so after the event the abductor has had 48 hours to make their escape, to Spain or to Africa.
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The point is that one way or the other the police ought to be working their way through the decision tree, but the most important thing to remember was that from the USA figures 66% of kids are missing because they have left for some reason of their own, the runaway and throwaway category, so if that is the case in Portugal it seems correct that the first emphasis needs to be check for that type of scenario first.
Reassess the situation after the first 24 hours as the balance of probabilities has changed in favour of the causes that someone might not own up to. (IMO this is what would be the case)
IMO I think it appears it was handled correctly by the PJ so far.
With the arrival of the FLO officers and other support staff who in some ways will report information back to the PJ.
If most of the wandering off situations resolved within a few hours the balance of probable cause swings around to the 33% that are abductions.
The question then becomes another decision do the PJ make the Tapas 9 and Jeremy Wilkins all arguidos from that point on, or have a more gentler approach and hope that information comes out in the witness interviews. That would mean the apartment was fully forensically examined at this stage (weeks earlier than it was).
IMO maybe there would have been an advantage making them all arguidos, and asking them the real hard questions within 48 hours of Madeleine going missing. But we can't turn the clock back.
I can see that would be frustrating for Kate and Gerry who favoured an abduction within 15 minutes of the alarm. (Reserved opinion: To me that suggests some knowledge about the situation that is not openly explained.)
For if the PJ only start thinking in terms of abduction 48 hours or so after the even the abductor has 48 hours to make their escape, to Spain or to Africa.
In PT the clock starts ticking on the time limit for the investigation once there are arguidos.
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In PT the clock starts ticking on the time limit for the investigation once there are arguidos.
They have statutes of limitations too, I believe.
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In PT the clock starts ticking on the time limit for the investigation once there are arguidos.
If they made all 10 of them arguidos there might have been restrictions on them getting together and doing joint timelines etc, their stories would get wild discrepancies especially if the Tapas 10 had anything to do with it.
If it appeared they didn't move on to "stranger abduction". Keep working through the decision tree.
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The point is that one way or the other the police ought to be working their way through the decision tree, but the most important thing to remember was that from the USA figures 66% of kids are missing because they have left for some reason of their own, the runaway and throwaway category, so if that is the case in Portugal it seems correct that the first emphasis needs to be check for that type of scenario first.
Reassess the situation after the first 24 hours as the balance of probabilities has changed in favour of the causes that someone might not own up to. (IMO this is what would be the case)
IMO I think it appears it was handled correctly by the PJ so far i.e. the first 24 hours.
With the arrival of the FLO officers and other support staff who in some ways will report information back to the PJ.
If most of the wandering off situations are resolved within a few hours the balance of probable cause swings around to the 33% that are abductions.
The question then becomes another decision do the PJ make the Tapas 9 and Jeremy Wilkins all arguidos from that point on, or have a more gentler approach and hope that information comes out in the witness interviews. That would mean the apartment was fully forensically examined at this stage (weeks earlier than it was).
IMO maybe there would have been an advantage making them all arguidos, and asking them the real hard questions within 48 hours of Madeleine going missing. But we can't turn the clock back.
I can see that would be frustrating for Kate and Gerry who favoured the abduction scenario within 15 minutes of the alarm being raised. (Reserved opinion: To me that suggests some knowledge about the situation that is not openly explained.)
For if the PJ only start thinking in terms of abduction 48 hours or so after the event the abductor has had 48 hours to make their escape, to Spain or to Africa.
the open window
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the open window
But at what time was the window opened?