Missing children and the statistics.

[slartibartfast]

not #61

Yes #61

[Robittybob1]

As per post #61, can’t compare apples and oranges.

"The first step is to work out what incidents are contained within your population."  So the incidents will be the apples and oranges. 

[slartibartfast]

"The first step is to work out what incidents are contained within your population."  So the incidents will be the apples and oranges.

You need to select from all crimes that take place those the share similarities with the McCann case and count them. You can then look at the nature of those crimes and count those to produce a probability for each crime.

[Carana]

I bow to your greater kindness.  But I am not interested in what Yvonne Martin might have said.  The fact remains that she suspected The McCanns on Day One when she had no proof of anything.
For a Professional this is simply not good enough.

I'm interested as so many people seem to refute the idea that anything in a statement could have been misunderstood.

Re her reaction... No, it's not "kindness", I'm just trying to imagine it from her perspective: Situation: missing child. And then she may well have gone through the mental drill of whatever could have caused it and simply didn't take time for the "human touch".

From the parents' and DP's perspective, it was the immediate aftermath, presumably with all kinds of unfamiliar people turning up, calls from all over the place, plus getting organised to go to the police station, press starting to swarm and the whole thing was a chaotic nightmare.

It's actually rare that any of these details would be splashed all over the Internet anyway, unless it was courtroom evidence.

[Robittybob1]

You need to select from all crimes that take place those the share similarities with the McCann case and count them. You can then look at the nature of those crimes and count those to produce a probability for each crime.

Sounds easy enough till you get cases like the McCann case that can't be solved even after 11 years.

As I was saying earlier I would like to see stats that show how quickly missing children cases are resolved and whether the type of cause affects that.

A case where a child has wandered off and fallen into a drain could end up being unsolved. 
A case where a child is abducted by a stranger and kept chained up in a basement  could also be hard to solve.

[John]

When Yvonne first approached the family maybe that did apply as it was not known at that time whether there was another parent that might have some claim to Madeleiene, once the parentage is known that percentage will drop.  I have no idea how you would redo the percentages but there might be 5 or so  criteria to eliminate before the likelihood of family and those known by the family being involved falls to zero.

Obviously one of the hurdles was making sure the friends of the family were not known sex offenders. 

It is difficult to imagine how a 99.9% ratio is ever going to fall below 0.1%.

Statistics really don't have any place in what was potentially a child abduction case.  It is accepted that most missing children cases involve runaways or parental disputes, you only need to have a look at the current list of missing children in the UK to work that one out.  Stranger abduction is a completely different matter but fortunately accounts for an extremely small percentage of missing children cases in the UK.

[slartibartfast]

Statistics really don't have any place in what was potentially a child abduction case.  It is accepted that most missing children cases involve runaways or parental disputes, you only need to have a look at the current list of missing children in the UK to work that one out.  Stranger abduction is a completely different matter but fortunately accounts for an extremely small percentage of missing children cases in the UK.

Statistics only give a starting point to look at the most likely causes without obvious evidence and the population is all cases where a young child is reported missing.

[Robittybob1]

Statistics really don't have any place in what was potentially a child abduction case.  It is accepted that most missing children cases involve runaways or parental disputes, you only need to have a look at the current list of missing children in the UK to work that one out.  Stranger abduction is a completely different matter but fortunately accounts for an extremely small percentage of missing children cases in the UK.

OK your answer depended on stats e.g. "Stranger abduction is a completely different matter but fortunately accounts for an extremely small percentage of missing children cases in the UK."

When a child goes missing you have no idea what category it will ultimately fit into.  So I think you have to eliminate the most frequent occurrences first.
How you do that would need to be worked out, but in my previous role we would have decision  trees.  You start at the top and work your way through it.  And even that would have it pitfalls if the people supplying the answers can't be believed.

Q.  When did you last see Madeleine?   A.  Gerry answers "9:07  she was laying on her bed uncovered" . 
Decision tree:  Do you believe him? Yes or No.   Decision time!

[jassi]

OK your answer depended on stats e.g. "Stranger abduction is a completely different matter but fortunately accounts for an extremely small percentage of missing children cases in the UK."

When a child goes missing you have no idea what category it will ultimately fit into.  So I think you have to eliminate the most frequent occurrences first.
How you do that would need to be worked out, but in my previous role we would have decision  trees.  You start at the top and work your way through it.  And even that would have it pitfalls if the people supplying the answers can't be believed.

Q.  When did you last see Madeleine?   A.  Gerry answers "9:07  she was laying on her bed uncovered" . 
Decision tree:  Do you believe him? Yes or No.   Decision time!

If I say no, is that libel?

[Robittybob1]

That was the type of decision tree we used to work with,  and each point had a different function and this was reflected in the shape of the decision , was it square , rectangle , circle etc, I forget now but it was all very serious.

[Robittybob1]

If I say no, is that libel?

I was hoping you would play the role of the decision maker, OK you don't believe Gerry.  What do you do next?
These are the sort of decisions GA had to make.  Decisions to be made at the time too not years later

[Mr Gray]

OK your answer depended on stats e.g. "Stranger abduction is a completely different matter but fortunately accounts for an extremely small percentage of missing children cases in the UK."

When a child goes missing you have no idea what category it will ultimately fit into.  So I think you have to eliminate the most frequent occurrences first.
How you do that would need to be worked out, but in my previous role we would have decision  trees.  You start at the top and work your way through it.  And even that would have it pitfalls if the people supplying the answers can't be believed.

Q.  When did you last see Madeleine?   A.  Gerry answers "9:07  she was laying on her bed uncovered" . 
Decision tree:  Do you believe him? Yes or No.   Decision time!

no it isnt decision time......decision time comes later...but a decision has to be made...do you believe the parents and it looks like both investiagtions do

[Robittybob1]

no it isnt decision time......decision time comes later...but a decision has to be made...do you believe the parents and it looks like both investiagtions do

Missing the point completely.  This decision is to clear the ground beneath your feet.   Pretend to be Yvonne Martin how are you going to help solve the case? 

No one in any of the police forces tell us specifically whether they believe Gerry on any specific point.   

[Mr Gray]

Missing the point completely.  This decision is to clear the ground beneath your feet.   Pretend to be Yvonne Martin how are you going to help solve the case? 

No one in any of the police forces tell us specifically whether they believe Gerry on any specific point.   

Yvonne Martin had no role in solving the case...If the mccanns are not suspects then the police must believe them

[Robittybob1]

Yvonne Martin had no role in solving the case...If the mccanns are not suspects then the police must believe them

That must be one of the most incorrect statements you have ever made "If the mccanns are not suspects then the police must believe them".
If that was true:  A kid is missing. The police turn up to question the parents.  Every statement the parents make is believed by the investigating officers.

That didn't happen in this case.

What should happen IMO "A kid is missing. The police turn up to question the parents.  Every statement the parents make is assessed whether it is true or false by the investigating officers.