Author Topic: Missing children and the statistics.  (Read 21121 times)

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Offline Carana

Re: Missing children and the statistics.
« Reply #15 on: March 08, 2018, 10:48:34 AM »
Were you going to give Faithlilly the same answer if she had started the thread?  You wanted her to start a thread.

Should there be studies looking at the cause of missing children plotted against the time passed since they were last seen?

In which country? Which countries have a centralised database of common criteria between various forces over how long a period of time?

Offline Robittybob1

Re: Missing children and the statistics.
« Reply #16 on: March 08, 2018, 11:00:30 AM »
In which country? Which countries have a centralised database of common criteria between various forces over how long a period of time?
I'd imagine the study is best done in the USA.    Hourly for the first 24 hours and daily for a week, then weekly for a month, then monthly for a year, is my suggestion
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Offline Carana

Re: Missing children and the statistics.
« Reply #17 on: March 08, 2018, 11:04:56 AM »
I'd imagine the study is best done in the USA.    Hourly for the first 24 hours and daily for a week, then weekly for a month, then monthly for a year, is my suggestion

Why? Do the characteristics surrounding missing children, including definitions, but also broad demographics, in the US correspond to those in Portugal?

And how would that correlate to YM's alleged assertion?
« Last Edit: March 08, 2018, 11:07:05 AM by Carana »

Offline Robittybob1

Re: Missing children and the statistics.
« Reply #18 on: March 08, 2018, 11:11:01 AM »
Why? Do the characteristics surrounding missing children, including definitions, but also broad demographics, in the US correspond to those in Portugal?

And how would that correlate to YM's alleged assertion?
They would be indicators and I think it would be similar across the world (IMO).  Otherwise every country would have to provide stats and that is very unlikely to happen.

"And how would that correlate to YM's alleged assertion?"  Hopefully it would show she was wrong.
« Last Edit: March 09, 2018, 07:10:45 PM by Robittybob1 »
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Offline jassi

Re: Missing children and the statistics.
« Reply #19 on: March 08, 2018, 11:27:21 AM »
They would indicators and I think it would be similar across the world IMO.  Otherwise every country would have to provide stats and that is very unlikely to happen.

"And how would that correlate to YM's alleged assertion?"  Hopefully it would show she was wrong.


Why ?

Is it not important to identify the guilty, irrespective of who they might be?
I believe everything. And l believe nothing.
I suspect everyone. And l suspect no one.
I gather the facts, examine the clues... and before   you know it, the case is solved!"

Or maybe not -

OG have been pushed out by the Germans who have reserved all the deck chairs for the foreseeable future

Offline Mr Gray

Re: Missing children and the statistics.
« Reply #20 on: March 08, 2018, 11:47:14 AM »
They would indicators and I think it would be similar across the world IMO.  Otherwise every country would have to provide stats and that is very unlikely to happen.

"And how would that correlate to YM's alleged assertion?"  Hopefully it would show she was wrong.

the assertion she allegedly made was reasonable as far as  know...the majority of child abductions involve custody disputes....what is wrong is to use that figure to try and suggest guilt on specific parents

Offline Carana

Re: Missing children and the statistics.
« Reply #21 on: March 08, 2018, 12:00:55 PM »
They would indicators and I think it would be similar across the world IMO. Otherwise every country would have to provide stats and that is very unlikely to happen.

"And how would that correlate to YM's alleged assertion?"  Hopefully it would show she was wrong.

In Asia? Africa? South America?

Offline Carana

Re: Missing children and the statistics.
« Reply #22 on: March 08, 2018, 12:01:46 PM »
the assertion she allegedly made was reasonable as far as  know...the majority of child abductions involve custody disputes....what is wrong is to use that figure to try and suggest guilt on specific parents

What she's alleged to have said was "missing", not abducted.

ETA: I'm wondering if that could be one for the potential lost-in-misunderstanding list...

ETA 2: Rob, why does the thread title state "abduction", when what YM is alleged to have said is "missing"?
« Last Edit: March 08, 2018, 04:17:50 PM by Carana »

Offline Robittybob1

Re: Missing children and the statistics.
« Reply #23 on: March 08, 2018, 06:03:30 PM »
What she's alleged to have said was "missing", not abducted.

ETA: I'm wondering if that could be one for the potential lost-in-misunderstanding list...

ETA 2: Rob, why does the thread title state "abduction", when what YM is alleged to have said is "missing"?
It was a deliberately provocative title to try and get Davel to explain his theory on the stats - it nearly worked.
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Offline Robittybob1

Re: Missing children and the statistics.
« Reply #24 on: March 08, 2018, 06:10:09 PM »
In Asia? Africa? South America?
Some countries child abduction and selling of children to slavery could be part of the economy, I don't know.  The problem could be so widespread there is no way to control it or to begin making an effort to count the cases and causes to begin with.
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Offline Robittybob1

Re: Missing children and the statistics.
« Reply #25 on: March 08, 2018, 06:36:00 PM »
the assertion she allegedly made was reasonable as far as  know...the majority of child abductions involve custody disputes....what is wrong is to use that figure to try and suggest guilt on specific parents
She asked an important question, clearing the ground beneath your feet, as the expression was.  She got an answer and later that answer appeared to be 100% correct Gerry is Madeleine's biological father so you can rule out one of the major causes of young child abductions - the actions of the biological father.

It was the reaction of the 3 persons that she spoke to that she found was aggressive.  It was their reaction that sparked suspicion.
"She first found them aggressive and their reaction after she showed Madeleine's parents her credentials, also seemed strange to her. Afterwards she was informed that there were no signs of a break-in in the apartment. Knowing that they are doctors she found it absolutely abnormal that they left their children alone at home. Associating all of this with her professional experience, which tells her that in 99.99 % of missing children cases, the parents or other family members are involved, she felt it was her duty to inform the police of this."

She had ruled out break in.  The McCanns were tending to say the doors were locked in the first instance, but only later admitted the patio door was unlocked.  But we have extensively looked at the front door, and it was only locked from the outside. It could still be opened from the inside.

She found it "absolutely abnormal that they left their children alone at home".  I think most of the UK still struggle with that.  How she "associated all of this" is the issue for even I can't make sense out of it yet.
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Offline Carana

Re: Missing children and the statistics.
« Reply #26 on: March 08, 2018, 06:38:46 PM »
Some countries child abduction and selling of children to slavery could be part of the economy, I don't know.  The problem could be so widespread there is no way to control it or to begin making an effort to count the cases and causes to begin with.

Quite... So how would one go about comparing one country's situation, police criteria, legislation with another? I could make a long list of why I gave up: comparing apples and oranges doesn't even come close.

Offline Robittybob1

Re: Missing children and the statistics.
« Reply #27 on: March 08, 2018, 06:45:42 PM »
Quite... So how would one go about comparing one country's situation, police criteria, legislation with another? I could make a long list of why I gave up: comparing apples and oranges doesn't even come close.
You are raising all these objections and  not offering any solutions.  What would make you think that Portugal would be that different to the USA? 
Explain why if you object and we could adjust the stats accordingly, intelligently.
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Offline Robittybob1

Re: Missing children and the statistics.
« Reply #28 on: March 08, 2018, 07:10:59 PM »
the assertion she allegedly made was reasonable as far as  know...the majority of child abductions involve custody disputes....what is wrong is to use that figure to try and suggest guilt on specific parents
Well you tell me since you know it all, what should the police and youth and family officers do with the information gained from population studies?  Did Yvonne "suggest guilt on specific parents"?
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Offline Mr Gray

Re: Missing children and the statistics.
« Reply #29 on: March 08, 2018, 07:33:15 PM »
Well you tell me since you know it all, what should the police and youth and family officers do with the information gained from population studies?  Did Yvonne "suggest guilt on specific parents"?