Missing children and the statistics.

[misty]

She asked an important question, clearing the ground beneath your feet, as the expression was.  She got an answer and later that answer appeared to be 100% correct Gerry is Madeleine's biological father so you can rule out one of the major causes of young child abductions - the actions of the biological father.

It was the reaction of the 3 persons that she spoke to that she found was aggressive.  It was their reaction that sparked suspicion.
"She first found them aggressive and their reaction after she showed Madeleine's parents her credentials, also seemed strange to her. Afterwards she was informed that there were no signs of a break-in in the apartment. Knowing that they are doctors she found it absolutely abnormal that they left their children alone at home. Associating all of this with her professional experience, which tells her that in 99.99 % of missing children cases, the parents or other family members are involved, she felt it was her duty to inform the police of this."

She had ruled out break in.  The McCanns were tending to say the doors were locked in the first instance, but only later admitted the patio door was unlocked.  But we have extensively looked at the front door, and it was only locked from the outside. It could still be opened from the inside.

She found it "absolutely abnormal that they left their children alone at home".  I think most of the UK still struggle with that.  How she "associated all of this" is the issue for even I can't make sense out of it yet.

I wonder at what stage YM discovered the children were alone, as that fact was not mentioned on the early news reports.

[Robittybob1]

I wonder at what stage YM discovered the children were alone, as that fact was not mentioned on the early news reports.

Well I have just listened to the early news breaks and you are right.  Yvonne got to PdL and had to ask for directions.  It is possible there was some discussion as to the basic care of the children.  I think Yvonne could understand Portuguese but maybe not speak it that well
"Name: YVONE WARREN MARTIN
Profession: Social Services and Child Protection
The witness is accompanied by a PJ interpreter, Carlos Moura, as she does not speak Portuguese."

So she could have been told the basic fact that they had been left alone while the parents went to dinner.  It would have to be the result of someone speaking to her.  Kate may have told her too.

[misty]

Well I have just listened to the early news breaks and you are right.  Yvonne got to PdL and had to ask for directions.  It is possible there was some discussion as to the basic care of the children.  I think Yvonne could understand Portuguese but maybe not speak it that well
"Name: YVONE WARREN MARTIN
Profession: Social Services and Child Protection
The witness is accompanied by a PJ interpreter, Carlos Moura, as she does not speak Portuguese."

So she could have been told the basic fact that they had been left alone while the parents went to dinner.  It would have to be the result of someone speaking to her.  Kate may have told her too.

Logically we can therefore deduce that Mrs Martin's initial reason for going to Luz was something other than the childcare arrangements. I agree that it sounds as though Kate told her about the checking procedure in the course of their conversation.

[Robittybob1]

Logically we can therefore deduce that Mrs Martin's initial reason for going to Luz was something other than the childcare arrangements. I agree that it sounds as though Kate told her about the checking procedure in the course of their conversation.

She makes it clear what her intentions were:
"During the past month of May or more precisely on the 04th of May 2007, the witness was in Portugal, enjoying holidays, when at about 07H00 she turned on the television and watched an English news channel (BBC or SKY NEWS) where she saw an appeal to British citizens on holiday in the Algarve to offer all possible support to a British couple who were on holiday in Praia da Luz and whose daughter, a child, had disappeared on May 03, 2007.

As she works directly with situations of children at risk, and as she was very close to Praia da Luz, she went there with the intention of offering her help and support to the couple, she arrived there at about 09H30. "

[Mr Gray]

If we take the statistics, at face value then in the, interest of child safety all children should be removed from their parents and placed with complete strangers

[Robittybob1]

If we take the statistics, at face value then in the, interest of child safety all children should be removed from their parents and placed with complete strangers

Hopefully you don't work for the Child youth and Family welfare organisation.

[Mr Gray]

Hopefully you don't work for the Child youth and Family welfare organisation.

And hopefully you dont

[kizzy]

If we take the statistics, at face value then in the, interest of child safety all children should be removed from their parents and placed with complete strangers

No i would say, with family - that is if there safety was at risk.

[slartibartfast]

Hopefully you don't work for the Child youth and Family welfare organisation.

Or on That’s Life.

[Robittybob1]

Or on That’s Life.

We don't have that one here, but if what I see on YouTube Davel could be a bit too serious for that.

[John]

Well if 99.9% of child abductions are due to the parents (as Yvonne Martin claimed) and their friends, does that mean statistically the McCanns and their friends were the ones that did it?  Can stats be applied like this. 

Davel is going to show us how to apply the statistics properly.  I'm waiting to see it.

I have a feeling it really matters as to what you call the problem  Is it a missing child, murdered child, abducted child, or a child that has just run away.  Each category will have its own statistics.  But are they related.

In this general knowledge article there already is a raft of different categories.
" But how common are child abductions?

The charity Action Against Abduction, formerly Pact, estimates that roughly 50 children under the age of 16 are abducted by strangers every year.

Its report Taken, which used data from UK police forces in 2011-12, found that 42% of all abduction attempts were made by strangers - and three quarters of the attempts were unsuccessful.

The average age of abducted children in the UK was 13, while the average age of children who suffered attempted abductions by non-parental perpetrators was 11, according to the report.

Action Against Abduction claims that most of these cases are sexually motivated, yet many attempted abductions are not reported to police.

However, offences by strangers are still quite rare - with the NSPCC pointing out that more than 90% of child sexual abuse is perpetrated by someone known to the child." http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-37504781

In the McCann case we have a child gone missing, we don't know if she was abducted, sexually abused, or murdered or anything really, so which study covers this type of missing child case?

Figures on sexual abuse, or on abductions don't really help.   Do we need the stats as it applies to Portugal since it happened there?

You will probably find that the vast majority of that 99% relates to disputes between parents which results in one or other of the parents taking the child abroad.  Thus we have the phenomena of parental abduction.

This is not what occurred in the case of Madeleine McCann so the statistics you quote really have no place in this case.

[Robittybob1]

You will probably find that the vast majority of that 99% relates to disputes between parents which results in one or other of the parents taking the child abroad.  Thus we have the phenomena of parental abduction.

This is not what occurred in the case of Madeleine McCann so the statistics you quote really have no place in this case.

When Yvonne first approached the family maybe that did apply as it was not known at that time whether there was another parent that might have some claim to Madeleiene, once the parentage is known that percentage will drop.  I have no idea how you would redo the percentages but there might be 5 or so  criteria to eliminate before the likelihood of family and those known by the family being involved falls to zero.

Obviously one of the hurdles was making sure the friends of the family were not known sex offenders. 

It is difficult to imagine how a 99.9% ratio is ever going to fall below 0.1%.

[Robittybob1]

from https://www.quora.com/What-are-the-reasons-people-kidnap-children
" According to the statistics reported by National Center for Missing and Exploited Children (NCMEC), family kidnapping is one of the most common reasons for a child to be reported missing and that over 200,000 cases of family kidnappings are reported each year in the United States.

Family kidnapping consists of kidnapping cases bring out by a family member, usually one of the parents. Mostly when a parent is in a relationship breakdown or in a custodial dispute, this act of desperation comes out. Parents who fear they will not be granted custody or will be prevented from seeing their kids see taking their children away as the only option open to them. Some of the desperate parents do it out of revenge for their partners.

The other two commonly seen kidnapping cases are acquaintance(58,000 cases/ year) and stranger(115 cases/ year) kidnappings. If you would like to know more about the facts and what you can do to prevent child abduction, please refer to our Kidnapping Prevention Guide.

"Parents' Guide to Preventing Child Abduction, Kidnapping, and Missing Children"  https://www.kidguard.com/parents-guide-to-preventing-child-abduction-kidnapping-and-missing-children/


"Missing vs. Abducted
The numbers of missing children reported each year seem staggering. However, it’s important to note that most reported cases of missing children do not involve abduction and are resolved within hours.

Children are reported missing for many different reasons and missing children usually turn up unharmed within a very short period of time. In the majority of cases, there has been a simple miscommunication between the child and the parent. The child may have misunderstood the time they were expected home or they might have got the meeting place wrong. Another common reason for a child to go missing is if they have had an argument with their parents and have decided not to go home. Some children may simply have gotten lost."

[Robittybob1]

Here is something like the checklist I was hoping to find.

1. Your partner is angry about the breakdown of your relationship

2. Your partner has tried to obtain documents pertaining to the child, such as medical and school record

Keep records of child’s photograph, height, weight and fingerprints.

3  Don’t use child’s first name on labels for supplies.

4  Make a mental note each day of what your child is wearing.

5  Keep an up-to-date list of their friends’ names, phone numbers, email addresses and their parents’ contact information.

6.  Check out references and know who they are when hiring a babysitter.

7  Accompany young children to the restroom when you are in a public place.

8  Tell your child who they should turn to in case of an emergency – identify a neighbor who can be trusted.

9   Establish an emergency plan in case your child gets lost. Identify a meeting place if convenient or tell them to stay put until you find them.

10  Make sure they memorize your number so they can ask someone to call you. Tell them never to go with a stranger to find you – you will come to them.

11  Know where your child is going and who they are with.

12  Tell them about the risks of abduction in an age appropriate way.

13  Communicate with your child! Try not to scare them, but make sure they take their own safety seriously.

14 Your partner tries to come between you and the child or turn the child against you

15 Your partner is angry about a custodial decision

16  Your partner has a history of violent behavior

17 Your partner has previously violated any court orders

has liquidated their assets and/or closed bank accounts

18  Your partner is hiding or destroying documents

[Carana]

You will probably find that the vast majority of that 99% relates to disputes between parents which results in one or other of the parents taking the child abroad.  Thus we have the phenomena of parental abduction.

This is not what occurred in the case of Madeleine McCann so the statistics you quote really have no place in this case.

John, what she is alleged to have said (not the term in the title) refers to "missing".

That makes no sense to me whatsoever. Is that supposed to mean that 99.% of parents / family members are responsible when a teen skips school for a few hours and was reported as "missing"?

NB: @ Rob, you seem to be attributing a term to her that she isn't even alleged to have said. Any chance of modifying the title?