what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?

[Mr Gray]

it was  amistake ...not  a lie ..  it should have beeen 49 factorial to 6 places as there are six lottery balls

Right

[Robittybob1]

I explained that to you yesterday.. 49 factorial to six places

But that was still wrong.   49 factorial to six places divided by 6 factorial was my answer.  In NZ we have only 40 balls.

In other words 40 factorial to six places divided by 6 factorial is my best answer at the moment and I wonder if I can confirm that.

[Vertigo Swirl]

Is that your attempt at an innocent explanation for Gerry's failure to look for Smithman who was carrying his possibly abducted daughter during the time he was alleging he was looking for abductor?

No, I'm simply trying to understand your complaint.  You seem to be suggesting that Gerry is guilty of knowing of Smithman's existence and whereabouts prior to the alarm being raised and of not going looking for him.  It's a bit like an episode of the Twilight Zone on here sometimes. 

[Robittybob1]

Not true, I believe in the possibility of EVERY other odd with the exception of the ONE stranger abduction.

That is a very odd statement.  I don't have a clue what it means TBH.

[ShiningInLuz]

If you're allowed  to state other posters don't understand statistics then it's OK for me to say it's clear some posters don't understand the evidence

You frequently do.   

The difference with the statistics approach is you have got the statistics wrong on 2 or 3 occasions, depending on how you count them.

It's not 49 factorial.

It's not 49 factorial 6 iterations.

The answer has been provided.  Your assertions were wrong.  Kindly retreat to fight another day.

[Mr Gray]

You frequently do.   

The difference with the statistics approach is you have got the statistics wrong on 2 or 3 occasions, depending on how you count them.

It's not 49 factorial.

It's not 49 factorial 6 iterations.

The answer has been provided.  Your assertions were wrong.  Kindly retreat to fight another day.

My post above says to six places... You have made the massive error that the probabilities in this case don't add up to 100%...you can keep making your pathetic little sniping remarks but if the mods want to keep the thread on topic I would suggest anymore of your sniping remarks are removed

[Robittybob1]

My post above says to six places... You have made the massive error that the probabilities in this case don't add up to 100%...you can keep making your pathetic little sniping remarks but if the mods want to keep the thread on topic I would suggest anymore of your sniping remarks are removed

Davel - can you provide your method and a figure for the odds and then we will determine who is right.  Just saying "My post above says to six places" is IMO not good enough.

[Robittybob1]

Since when did a question become a complaint? If you don't have an innocent explanation for Gerry's failure to look for Smithman despite KNOWING he was seen carrying a child matching his abducted daughter's description in his possession, that's fine. You'd be better saying nothing at all if that's the case IMO.

The McCanns private detectives did set out to find Smithman.    It was them who procured the E-fits of Smithman.

When would Gerry have first known about Smithman sightings?

[Vertigo Swirl]

Items to evaluate

Dog Alerts
Wiped Cell Phone records
Inconsistent Statements
Deep Sleeping Twins
Refusing to Answer Questions
Refusing to do reconstruction
Leaving PDL quickly after saying would never leave
Excessive use of Litigation
Body Language
Unrestricted Fund
Smith Sighting
Crying in the Night
Leaving Twins for extended periods (plus to raise alarm)

Many of those are subjective and /or not relevant or plain wrong to the issue of whether or not Gerry McCann hid Madeleine's body.  The ones that may point to involvement have been thoroughly investigated by the police and no evidence of wrong doing found.  What are the chances of that, eh?

[Vertigo Swirl]

Since when did a question become a complaint? If you don't have an innocent explanation for Gerry's failure to look for Smithman despite KNOWING he was seen carrying a child matching his abducted daughter's description in his possession, that's fine. You'd be better saying nothing at all if that's the case IMO.

When did Gerry find out about Smithman?

[slartibartfast]

You might be right there.  That gave an answer of 13,983,816 or approx 14 million:1 of picking the right numbers.  I have often wondered how to calculate that.  Thank you.

Simple 6 from 49 combination.

[Robittybob1]

When we are discussing the odds of Madeleine being abducted, what do you find odd about it?

You would have to go back to the statement that I can't understand and reword it, and see if I can get it.  At the moment I still can't fathom it.

Let's say Madeleine was the one, she was the abducted one.  How did the odds begin to stack up against her?  That analysis will be the 55 million:1 part.

[Robittybob1]

Simple 6 from 49 combination.

I've never heard that expression before.

[Robittybob1]

IMO Five years before SY released the e-fits for him. He didn't seem too interested in all those golden hours.

They are not the "Golden hours". 

http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=7898.msg378650;topicseen#msg378650

"44.1.9 The golden hour
The ‘golden hour’ is not restricted to 60 minutes. It is the initial period following the incident
occurring when the best opportunities exist to take decisive action."

[Mr Gray]

Davel - can you provide your method and a figure for the odds and then we will determine who is right.  Just saying "My post above says to six places" is IMO not good enough.

certainly rob...it really is the most basic statistics taht many children would understand.
Picking the first ball from 49 means you have a one in 49 chance of being correct....that leaves 48 balls so the odds are 1 in 48 of choosing the right one...now thers 47...so its a one in 47...then 46..45 and 44


so the odds of chosing 6 from 49 is
49x48x47x46x45x44...or 49 factorial to 6 places


what some dont realise is that your chose 6 numbers have as much chance of being correct as 1,2,3,4,5,6,
some people actually select these 6 numbers