what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?

[Mr Gray]

It seems Erngath can't calculate odds to save herself either and is only too eager to prove it. Fair doos!

The problems with the calculations are your own problems. What you are trying to do is factor the five nights into one. You simply cannot do that IF you are calculating accurate odds. Your calculation EXCLUDES the other four nights that DID happen. You should take my advice, it's clear you're out of your depth and drop the tough guy routine while you're at it.

We DO know they DIDN'T mention thinking about canceling Sun, Mon, Tues or Wednesday evening that they DID spend in the tapas. They only claim to have thought about it on the ONE night the child was abducted.

That's 4/1 pal in anyone's book. Other than someone who doesn't know how to calculate odds.


The odds I calculated are there now for future reference should SY manage to factor stranger abduction in and all the others out. They are only harmless odds after all. ain't they? We'll see how harmless they are once the investigation is finished, won't we?

What you seem to be calculating is the odds Maddie would disappear from 5a that evening... I agree they are remote..

But it's now 100% she has disappeared

[Erngath]

It seems Erngath can't calculate odds to save herself either and is only too eager to prove it. Fair doos!

The problems with the calculations are your own problems. What you are trying to do is factor the five nights into one. You simply cannot do that IF you are calculating accurate odds. Your calculation EXCLUDES the other four nights that DID happen. You should take my advice, it's clear you're out of your depth and drop the tough guy routine while you're at it.

We DO know they DIDN'T mention thinking about canceling Sun, Mon, Tues or Wednesday evening that they DID spend in the tapas. They only claim to have thought about it on the ONE night the child was abducted.

That's 4/1 pal in anyone's book. Other than someone who doesn't know how to calculate odds.


The odds I calculated are there now for future reference should SY manage to factor stranger abduction in and all the others out. They are only harmless odds after all. ain't they? We'll see how harmless they are once the investigation is finished, won't we?

Why bring my name into this bizarre( IMO) discussion.
I will have to check back to see my contribution to this thread.
Back to page 12 and cannot see a post by me.
Have I missed it?
Was it a like to a post which brought about your reference to me?

[Robittybob1]

Unless you can show me statistical problems in the calculations (which are there) then there's no need to put my tongue in my cheek.  Those are the odds. Only a fool would ignore them.

Five apartments and what do you know, the cadaver dog picks the ONE apartment of the McCanns. The odds aren't lying on this occasion but the old bill still have a chance to factor your ONE in.

Good luck!

Davel had a good point http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=10798.msg536202#msg536202

[Robittybob1]

Your forgetting the ONE kid. As long as the ONE is still there, it can never be 100%.

What do you mean by that? 

[Mr Gray]

Your forgetting the ONE kid. As long as the ONE is still there, it can never be 100%.

Not sure what you mean... I think it's certain she has disappeared

[Robittybob1]

What's the statistical difference between Madeleine and every other UK child who has went abroad since Ben Needham's abduction in Oct 1989. 19 years x 3,000,000 kids going abroad per year was the figure I gave that.

Those are the odds that Madeleine would be the one UK child to be abducted while on holiday since 1989. Facts, eh!

What I picking up from what you are saying is that since the rate of abduction of British kids whilst on holiday is so low, parents need not factor in that risk.  1 chance in 58 million is next to nothing.

[Vertigo Swirl]

But she needs to be the first ONE abducted by a stranger since Ben Needham.

That's the ONE you were forgetting.

OK, she's the first ONE abducted by a stranger since Ben Needham (who apparently was not abducted at all).  Now what?

[Mr Gray]

But she needs to be the first ONE abducted by a stranger since Ben Needham.

That's the ONE you were forgetting.

And the chances she has been abducted are relatively high

[Vertigo Swirl]

But she needs to be the first ONE abducted by a stranger since Ben Needham.

That's the ONE you were forgetting.

OK, she's the first ONE abducted by a stranger since Ben Needham (who apparently was not abducted at all).  Now what?

[Robittybob1]

And the chances she has been abducted are relatively high

What sort of odds are you expecting?

[Vertigo Swirl]

Then you have to multiple that figure by the four because there was a 4/1 chance that the dog would pick the ONE apartment that it DID. It's known facts we're using here, speculation cannot be factored in.

OK ONE x 4 =4
Now what?

[Mr Gray]

ONE is not a high number if that's what you are trying to pretend.

Yes it is... At least more than 20 %

[Mr Gray]

And btw you forgot to add the 1, it's actually 5.  Five apartments, not four.

this is where you are going wrong..

when you go to sleep tonight the chances of yoe being murdered in your bed by a burglar are....10,000,000 to one.

If you are found in bed in the morning with  a knife through your chest teh odds of you being murdered by a burglar are NOT 10.000,000 to one

[Mr Gray]

If there are five choices of anything and only ONE to pick. That's 4/1 whether me, you or anyone else likes the sounds of it or not. And when you apply the odds of the known facts, you'r all in on the ONE.


Good luck!

if there are 4 equal choices then teh odds are 4 to one...none denies taht

[Mr Gray]

That's a 3/1. I thought you would have learnt for  VS's mistake. There were five apartments, only ONE of a missing child. The other four, had no children missing from them. 5 apartments = 4/1.  4+1 =5. Get it yet?

Im not really taking a lot of notice...your undestanding of the basic principle is wrong so it doesnt matter waht figures you use...you obvioulsy arent reading my posts and listening to my expalantions of why you are wrong....the chances of maddies disappearance being due to an abduction must be at least 20 %...and imo far higher.

remnember there are 3 basic possibilities that must add up to 100% ....so what are your figures for taht