what do you think the odds are of abduction in this case?

[Eleanor]

Jeezuz.  What a load of old codswallop.  No Arrests and No Charges.  But never mind.  Any minute now.

[Vertigo Swirl]

Show us where a child has ever woke and wandered without their body ever being discovered and we'll see what the odds say for woke and wandered in the same way we did for abduction by a stranger?

Ben Needham is thought to have wandered off so what are the odds of that happening?  Furthermore what are the odds that it did happen versus parental involvement and abduction?

[Vertigo Swirl]

The only way the odds will EVER be wrong, whether they are Monkey's 57,000,000/1 or Professor McCann's 100,000,000/1, is if Operation Grange convicts an abductor.

Let's raise a glass to SY. 

If an abductor is convicted the odds as you have calculated them wouldn’t change.

[Wonderfulspam]

Ben Needham is thought to have wandered off so what are the odds of that happening?  Furthermore what are the odds that it did happen versus parental involvement and abduction?

Did he take his shorts with him?

[Vertigo Swirl]

You have to consider that there has to be an innocent explanation for each anomaly to clear the McCanns.

One of your items is a lie for a start.

[Vertigo Swirl]

Did he take his shorts with him?

Strange question.

[Wonderfulspam]

Strange question.

According to reports I've read, Ben had wet himself & his grandmother washed his shorts & hung them out to dry.
The shorts, apparently, disappeared along with Ben.

[Vertigo Swirl]

According to reports I've read, Ben had wet himself & his grandmother washed his shorts & hung them out to dry.
The shorts, apparently, disappeared along with Ben.

Oh.  Well in that case she must have done it.

[Wonderfulspam]

Oh.  Well in that case she must have done it.

Some toy cars went missing as well, apparently.

So either Ben took his stuff & did a runner, or the abductor had a fetish for toy cars & wet shorts as well as little boys.

[Vertigo Swirl]

Some toy cars went missing as well, apparently.

So either Ben took his stuff & did a runner, or the abductor had a fetish for toy cars & wet shorts as well as little boys.

So what are the odds he wandered off then?  Must be at least a grillion to one on the basis of the shorts alone.

[Vertigo Swirl]

Does this mean Madeleine is the first British child to ever have been abducted by a stranger abroad? In that case it's every single child who has ever been abroad and never been abducted by a stranger/1.

See what I mean, whatever way you look at it, you're up the creek without a paddle. You're all in on the one.

Good luck! 

She may well be.  It’s a massively statistical improbability, but well, shit happens, and statistics can’t prevent it from happening. 

[Eleanor]

Does this mean Madeleine is the first British child to ever have been abducted by a stranger abroad? In that case it's every single child who has ever been abroad and never been abducted by a stranger/1.

See what I mean, whatever way you look at it, you're up the creek without a paddle. You're all in on the one.

Good luck! 

I cannot think of anything even remotely coherent to say.

[Vertigo Swirl]

I cannot think of anything even remotely coherent to say.

It would be interesting to know what Monkey thinks of the odds of Planet Earth being the only planet in the universe with intelligent life, and whether or not the odds are greater that Madeleine was abducted?

[Eleanor]

It would be interesting to know what Monkey thinks of the odds of Planet Earth being the only planet in the universe with intelligent life, and whether or not the odds are greater that Madeleine was abducted?

What Intelligent Life?

[Robittybob1]

The PJ archiving report says woke and wandered was highly unlikely... Not just unlikely but highly unlikely. Do they have evidence to support that... It would be interesting to know on what basis they made that statement

Could they have had a discussion with Cheeky Monkey?

The odds of a woke and wandered or even an abduction might be greater than life forming on planet Earth.  Truly amazing stuff.