A Good, Bad or Average Theory What's The Difference?

[Mr Gray]

Depends on your viewpoint. The 'chances of anything coming from Mars, were a million to one, he said'. But to the aliens it was a certainty.

It doesn't depend on viewpoint.. It depends on facts.  Gunit has misunderstood gerrys claim

[The General]

It doesn't depend on viewpoint.. It depends on facts.  Gunit has misunderstood gerrys claim

Depends on your viewpoint. If the aliens knew they were coming, then it's a certainty - but the stupid humans had it at about 1,000,000 - 1. It's about data.
Insider trading, footballers betting on their own team to lose - they've got data that tells them the 'real' odds, as opposed to the 'official' odds.

[Mr Gray]

Depends on your viewpoint. If the aliens knew they were coming, then it's a certainty - but the stupid humans had it at about 1,000,000 - 1. It's about data.
Insider trading, footballers betting on their own team to lose - they've got data that tells them the 'real' odds, as opposed to the 'official' odds.

Gerry made his observation on the available facts..
Obviously if an abduction was being planned.. The odds would be different.. Perhaps it was... But gerry didn't know

[barrier]

It certainly is the proposition which both Scotland Yard and the Policia Judiciaria are pursuing. I think it would take quite a stretch of the imagination to suppose they have arrived at that stage without thoroughly investigating all the alternatives before deciding on following that course of action.

They have all the intelligence and information which enables them to justify investigating Madeleine's abduction to their bosses.  The rest of us have to rely on working it out using common sense.

Pedro Do Carmo 2017: we don't know what happened and have to prepared for different scenarios,'this was in answer to the question,do you accept the girl was abducted,so no PJ are not wedded to one particular theory.

[Angelo222]

It certainly is the proposition which both Scotland Yard and the Policia Judiciaria are pursuing.  I think it would take quite a stretch of the imagination to suppose they have arrived at that stage without thoroughly investigating all the alternatives before deciding on following that course of action.

They have all the intelligence and information which enables them to justify investigating Madeleine's abduction to their bosses.  The rest of us have to rely on working it out using common sense.

One would like to think so but somehow I doubt it. Amaral was there on the scene and saw events first hand whereas SY appeared years later. I tend to go with those who saw what occurred first hand and experienced firsthand the fear in the eyes of those suspected of being involved.

For SY, hindsight is a wonderful luxury.

[Mr Gray]

One would like to think so but somehow I doubt it. Amaral was there on the scene and saw events first hand whereas SY appeared years later. I tend to go with those who saw what occurred first hand and experienced firsthand the fear in the eyes of those suspected of being involved.

For SY, hindsight is a wonderful luxury.

I tend to go with those who have an understanding of the evidence... Amaral clearly didn't.  In the documentary he claimed he would prove in the following hour Maddie died in the apartment... He failed miserably

[Mr Gray]

One would like to think so but somehow I doubt it. Amaral was there on the scene and saw events first hand whereas SY appeared years later. I tend to go with those who saw what occurred first hand and experienced firsthand the fear in the eyes of those suspected of being involved.

For SY, hindsight is a wonderful luxury.

Did amaral ever meet the mccanns

[Eleanor]

Did amaral ever meet the mccanns

Nope.  Except in Court.  And that wasn't exactly meeting.

[Vertigo Swirl]

 He said they had not been investigated by OG.

Two points to that, firstly the involvement of the parents, that was dealt with at the time by the
original investigation by the Portuguese. We had a look at all the material and we are happy that was
all dealt with and there is no reason whatsoever to reopen that or start rumours that was a line of
investigation.

So he made it clear that parental involvement was not one of the theories on the table, cheers for that. 

[Vertigo Swirl]

Depends on your viewpoint. If the aliens knew they were coming, then it's a certainty - but the stupid humans had it at about 1,000,000 - 1. It's about data.
Insider trading, footballers betting on their own team to lose - they've got data that tells them the 'real' odds, as opposed to the 'official' odds.

Say the odds of being struck by lightning in a lifetime  are 50,000 to one.  You find a singed corpse on the 18th hole after a thunderstorm- what are the odds that death was caused by a lightning strike?

[Wonderfulspam]

Say the odds of being struck by lightning in a lifetime  are 50,000 to one.  You find a singed corpse on the 18th hole after a thunderstorm- what are the odds that death was caused by a lightning strike?

What if the lightning refused to answer police questions?

[Vertigo Swirl]

What if the lightning refused to answer police questions?

What a stupid question, IMO.

[The General]

Gerry made his observation on the available facts..
Obviously if an abduction was being planned.. The odds would be different.. Perhaps it was... But gerry didn't know

Hence the comment 'depends on your viewpoint', which you've now just agreed with.

[The General]

Say the odds of being struck by lightning in a lifetime  are 50,000 to one.  You find a singed corpse on the 18th hole after a thunderstorm- what are the odds that death was caused by a lightning strike?

Depends. That 50,000 - 1 will be a very vague average across humanity, which will include scientists who study lightning and, conversely, hermits who don't budge from a cave for 70 years. Golf dude increases his chances many fold by walking out on the course in a storm. But your example isn't the same - it's not certain, but way more likely.
The actual odds from the perspective of the aliens is odds on - sappenin' hoomans WOO!

[The General]

I tend to go with those who have an understanding of the evidence... Amaral clearly didn't.  In the documentary he claimed he would prove in the following hour Maddie died in the apartment... He failed miserably

Not according to him he didn't. He proved it according to his paradigm. Winning.