Disappeared and Abducted Children and Young Adults => Madeleine McCann (3) disappeared from her parent's holiday apartment at Ocean Club, Praia da Luz, Portugal on 3 May 2007. No trace of her has ever been found. => Topic started by: Robittybob1 on January 02, 2017, 08:32:53 AM
Title: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 02, 2017, 08:32:53 AM
It is time we knew the facts about MADELEINE'S DNA http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MADELEINES_DNA.htm#oa1v1p269
Can we get to understand how DNA analysis works and what the results meant?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: John on January 03, 2017, 01:15:58 AM
I have yet to really immerse myself into the study of the DNA, but yesterday I noted there were reports that samples yielded fully matched to Madeleine's DNA but I have a feeling this was later proven wrong.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 04, 2017, 01:23:48 AM
I have yet to really immerse myself into the study of the DNA, but yesterday I noted there were reports that samples yielded fully matched to Madeleine's DNA but I have a feeling this was later proven wrong.
I haven't found anything odd about the reports concerning her DNA.
The only thing I found somewhat disconcerting was that Amaral seemingly didn't understand them.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: pathfinder73 on January 04, 2017, 07:03:56 PM
"Of these 19 components 15 are present within the result from this item; there are 37 components in total. There are 37 components because there are at least 3 contributors; but there could be up to five contributors. In my opinion therefore this result is too complex for meaningful interpretation/inclusion."
Why didn't they get the DNA profiles of everyone who used that hire car after 27 May 2007? e.g. Sandy Cameron, Michael Wright etc.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: ShiningInLuz on January 04, 2017, 07:10:48 PM
"Of these 19 components 15 are present within the result from this item; there are 37 components in total. There are 37 components because there are at least 3 contributors; but there could be up to five contributors. In my opinion therefore this result is too complex for meaningful interpretation/inclusion."
Why didn't they get the DNA profiles of everyone who used that hire car after 27 May 2007? e.g. Sandy Cameron, Michael Wright etc.
May I ask why this is restricted to those using the hire car after 27 May 2007?
The car must have been used by people before that, as its life-cycle as a hire car ran out during the period the McCanns had it. Quite possibly the DNA involves those doing the hiring out and those cleaning the car between rentals.
Quite a bit of unravelling would be required to work out what actually went on re those results.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: pathfinder73 on January 04, 2017, 07:21:07 PM
May I ask why this is restricted to those using the hire car after 27 May 2007?
The car must have been used by people before that, as its life-cycle as a hire car ran out during the period the McCanns had it. Quite possibly the DNA involves those doing the hiring out and those cleaning the car between rentals.
Quite a bit of unravelling would be required to work out what actually went on re those results.
It's the obvious place to start when 15 components matched the missing child.
"Within the DNA profile of Madeline McCann there are 20 DNA components represented by 19 peaks on a chart. At one of the areas of DNA we routinely examine Madeleine has inherited the same DNA component from both parents; this appears therefore as 1 peak rather than 2, hence 19 rather than 20. Of these 19 components 15 are present within the result from this item; there are 37 components in total." John Lowe
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/JOHN_LOWE.htm
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 04, 2017, 07:34:52 PM
It's the obvious place to start when 15 components matched the missing child.
"Within the DNA profile of Madeline McCann there are 20 DNA components represented by 19 peaks on a chart. At one of the areas of DNA we routinely examine Madeleine has inherited the same DNA component from both parents; this appears therefore as 1 peak rather than 2, hence 19 rather than 20. Of these 19 components 15 are present within the result from this item; there are 37 components in total." John Lowe
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/JOHN_LOWE.htm
How would adding more people simplify the problem?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: ferryman on January 05, 2017, 04:22:07 PM
It's the obvious place to start when 15 components matched the missing child.
"Within the DNA profile of Madeline McCann there are 20 DNA components represented by 19 peaks on a chart. At one of the areas of DNA we routinely examine Madeleine has inherited the same DNA component from both parents; this appears therefore as 1 peak rather than 2, hence 19 rather than 20. Of these 19 components 15 are present within the result from this item; there are 37 components in total." John Lowe
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/JOHN_LOWE.htm
Also in that mix is likely to have been DNA from Madeleine's parents and her twin siblings, all with very similar profiles and a large number of matching components with components of Madeleine's DNA.
No mystery at all.
And not remotely indicative of Madeleine's physical presence in the vehicle
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: jassi on January 05, 2017, 06:30:57 PM
Individual profiles might be quite different - eg between Kate & Gerry, but yes, they should contain matching components within Madeleine's DNA.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 05, 2017, 06:51:18 PM
But did they? Was it confirmed that Madeleine was the biological daughter of Kate and Gerry McCann?
Quote
Re: Abduction of Madeleine McCann on 3rd May 2007
A DNA profile has been obtained from the reference samples of Kate HEALY (51162896) and Gerald McCANN (51162897).
A DNA profile has also been obtained from a pillowcase (SJM/1).
DNA profiling reveals a series of bands, half of which a child inherits from their natural mother (maternal) and half of which inherits from their natural father (paternal)
In this case, all of the bands present in the prof - e of abtained from the pillowcase are represented in the combined profiles of Kate HEALY and Gerald McCANN. This is what I would expect to find if the profile obtained from the pillowcase originated from a natural child of theirs.
The results of the DNA profile obtained from the pillowcase is approximately 29 million times more likely if the profile originates form a natural child of theirs rather than someone unrelated to them.
In my opinion, the results detailed above provide extremely strong support for the view that the profile obtained from the pillowcase originated from a natural child of Kate HEALY and GERALD McCANN.
Please note: I understand that the McCANN's have a second female child. It therefore remains a formal possibility that the DNA on the pillowcase could have originated from her as the genetics would be in keeping with those described above.
The (slight) doubt was resolved easily, by taking Ameille's DNA and comparing it with the profile from the pillowcase.
The profiles were different, confirming they had Madeleine's DNA.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: jassi on January 05, 2017, 07:05:16 PM
But did they? Was it confirmed that Madeleine was the biological daughter of Kate and Gerry McCann?
There are several DNA threads on here.
1. Saliva on the Rothley pillowcase indicated DNA from a female child that corresponded to a natural child of the McCanns, and who - upon comparison - was not Amelie.
2. There is no known other female child aside from Madeleine and Amelie.
3. There was another sample provided later (quite possibly a birth heel-prick test), which appears to have corresponded to the same DNA as on the pillowcase.
4. Unless one is seriously into absurd conspiracy theories, the two samples correspond to what forensic scientists believe to be her DNA.
5. The fact that 15 components of her DNA were found in the car means little - as there were 15 components compatible with hers within a soup of 37 (or 38 or whatever the amount was), composed of between 3-5 people in a car used by numerous relatives (all of whom share some of her components).
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: stephen25000 on January 05, 2017, 08:13:44 PM
Don't get too excited Alice only agrees with the sentiment at this stage.
Well just to clear that up I do not believe there was ever much doubt that GM & KM were Madeleine's parents. Don't give me the Amaral crap as I would have ensured that was the case before I wasted time and money on potentially fruitless DNA tests. Let's know for sure who the parents are before we go off half cocked. No pun intended. You still have, however, the risk of the old "it's a wise man who knows his own father" saw.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 05, 2017, 09:54:26 PM
Well just to clear that up I do not believe there was ever much doubt that GM & KM were Madeleine's parents. Don't give me the Amaral crap as I would have ensured that was the case before I wasted time and money on potentially fruitless DNA tests. Let's know for sure who the parents are before we go off half cocked. No pun intended. You still have, however, the risk of the old "it's a wise man who knows his own father" saw.
I was just thinking if the 15 matches that Madeleine had do they all have to match some parts of her parent's DNA. Is it, if she is a daughter all those matches will be covered in Gerry's or Kate's DNA. I am so green on the subject I don't even know what they were matching. As I said before this is a learning exercise for me. There were 20 places where madeleine's DNA should have matched either Gerry's or Kate's but since they shared one site themselves there was a total of 19 sites to match. I understand that bit. But there ended up being many more portions than required which showed the sample was made up from more than 1 person. Did you understand what they said about that?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: John on January 06, 2017, 01:27:49 AM
I was just thinking if the 15 matches that Madeleine had do they all have to match some parts of her parent's DNA. Is it, if she is a daughter all those matches will be covered in Gerry's or Kate's DNA. I am so green on the subject I don't even know what they were matching. As I said before this is a learning exercise for me. There were 20 places where madeleine's DNA should have matched either Gerry's or Kate's but since they shared one site themselves there was a total of 19 sites to match. I understand that bit. But there ended up being many more portions than required which showed the sample was made up from more than 1 person. Did you understand what they said about that?
A child's DNA will contain at least some markers from each parent. Off topic I know but did you know that some humans have two set's of DNA?
Identical twins possess almost identical DNA which requires a special test to distinguish between them. Scientists can sequence the entire genome of both individuals and look for any subtle, rare differences that may have resulted from genetic mutations, but the procedure is expensive and takes about a month.
I was just thinking if the 15 matches that Madeleine had do they all have to match some parts of her parent's DNA. Is it, if she is a daughter all those matches will be covered in Gerry's or Kate's DNA. I am so green on the subject I don't even know what they were matching. As I said before this is a learning exercise for me. There were 20 places where madeleine's DNA should have matched either Gerry's or Kate's but since they shared one site themselves there was a total of 19 sites to match. I understand that bit. But there ended up being many more portions than required which showed the sample was made up from more than 1 person. Did you understand what they said about that?
I don't know if my attempts at explaining it will be of any help to you:
I was just thinking if the 15 matches that Madeleine had do they all have to match some parts of her parent's DNA. Is it, if she is a daughter all those matches will be covered in Gerry's or Kate's DNA. I am so green on the subject I don't even know what they were matching. As I said before this is a learning exercise for me. There were 20 places where madeleine's DNA should have matched either Gerry's or Kate's but since they shared one site themselves there was a total of 19 sites to match. I understand that bit. But there ended up being many more portions than required which showed the sample was made up from more than 1 person. Did you understand what they said about that?
Are you confusing the surrogate reference / later reference samples with the sample found in the boot?
The reference samples were analysed to determine what her DNA profile was, using the UK's standard nuclear forensic DNA test.
The boot sample was different: it was to analyse the DNA results of whatever was found in the boot. In the boot, they found a total of 37 alleles at the 10 marker / loci (locations) used by the UK's forensic service. Out of a hypothetical total of 20 alleles - in her case 19 due to the fact that she inherited an identical allele value from both parents - they found that there were 37 allele values in total and that therefore several people had left their DNA in that sample.
Individual alleles are not unique to a single individual: you and I may easily share 6 or more individual ones (even in the small number of locations searched for forensic purposes). We may even share two alleles at the same marker / loci (location), and I doubt very much that we are related. If we were related, we may well share more than that. It's the combination of the totality of the alleles found at the specific locations that distinguish one person from another for most intents and purposes.
There have been mistakes in the past when forensic DNA was first used as, at least in the UK, they only looked at 6 markers instead of the current 10. Forensic services in several other countries look at more than 10, but they are not always identical locations. The last time I looked, Interpol still had a database of 6, but there may be several reasons for that.
I'm not sure if my attempts at explaining will be of any help: http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=6311.msg273406#msg273406
There's more on pp. 403-405 as well.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 06, 2017, 08:45:18 AM
Identical twins possess almost identical DNA which requires a special test to distinguish between them. Scientists can sequence the entire genome of both individuals and look for any subtle, rare differences that may have resulted from genetic mutations, but the procedure is expensive and takes about a month.
Yes, I'd read about that. However, that would seem to be highly unlikely to apply in Madeleine's case, although I expect that it might end up being toted as potential fact by the conspiracy lunacy fringe.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Alice Purjorick on January 06, 2017, 09:35:23 PM
I was just thinking if the 15 matches that Madeleine had do they all have to match some parts of her parent's DNA. Is it, if she is a daughter all those matches will be covered in Gerry's or Kate's DNA. I am so green on the subject I don't even know what they were matching. As I said before this is a learning exercise for me. There were 20 places where madeleine's DNA should have matched either Gerry's or Kate's but since they shared one site themselves there was a total of 19 sites to match. I understand that bit. But there ended up being many more portions than required which showed the sample was made up from more than 1 person. Did you understand what they said about that?
It is all over my head I am afraid; I did lots of technical, contract law and basic accounting. The DNA and genetics lark is a subject where people with PhD's are thick on the ground. That should illustrate something I believe. I wouldn't place too much reliance on what I could glean from Google. An authoritative book on the topic might be a better choice but it would need to start at the " the ankle bone is connected to the leg bone" level I fear.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 07, 2017, 09:47:49 AM
It is all over my head I am afraid; I did lots of technical, contract law and basic accounting. The DNA and genetics lark is a subject where people with PhD's are thick on the ground. That should illustrate something I believe. I wouldn't place too much reliance on what I could glean from Google. An authoritative book on the topic might be a better choice but it would need to start at the " the ankle bone is connected to the leg bone" level I fear.
I don't think it requires a PhD to understand the forensic DNA results in this case, though. What hasn't helped, IMO, is the fact that various people (including bloggers, some media outlets, certain "researchers" and a certain PJ coordinator of "we policemen, experts" fame) have disseminated their muddled understanding for reasons best known to themselves.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 07, 2017, 11:10:45 AM
I don't think it requires a PhD to understand the forensic DNA results in this case, though. What hasn't helped, IMO, is the fact that various people (including bloggers, some media outlets, certain "researchers" and a certain PJ coordinator of "we policemen, experts" fame) have disseminated their muddled understanding for reasons best known to themselves.
I've had a couple of days traveling so my head is in no state to be tackling the DNA issue just yet. I appreciate your help, I'm not ignoring it.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: G-Unit on January 07, 2017, 01:29:02 PM
I've had a couple of days traveling so my head is in no state to be tackling the DNA issue just yet. I appreciate your help, I'm not ignoring it.
What was confirmed was that the pillowcase from Rothley had DNA on it consistent with a natural child of the McCanns. The DNA also matched a sample provided by Leicester Police in October 2007. There is also this;
With respect to the trace evidence recovered behind the sofa all the confirmed DNA components coincide with corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeleine McCann. (swab 3A) http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MADELEINES_DNA.htm
So the DNA from the pillowcase, from the LP sample and on swab 3A all matched. Swab 3A was taken from the floor of 5A behind the sofa.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Alice Purjorick on January 07, 2017, 01:46:47 PM
I don't think it requires a PhD to understand the forensic DNA results in this case, though. What hasn't helped, IMO, is the fact that various people (including bloggers, some media outlets, certain "researchers" and a certain PJ coordinator of "we policemen, experts" fame) have disseminated their muddled understanding for reasons best known to themselves.
Maybe not, I wasn't actually suggesting that it did. My thrust is that Googling is a recipe for disaster without at least a basic knowledge of what one is looking up otherwise one is likely to fall into this trap: "I know you think you understand what you thought I said but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant" The basic knowledge is better acquired from an authoritative book or preferably short training courses with a competency test at the end. That's how most companies outside the "PdL McCann Bubble" operate. Which is not far removed from what you appear to be saying ?{)(**
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 07, 2017, 04:24:44 PM
What was confirmed was that the pillowcase from Rothley had DNA on it consistent with a natural child of the McCanns. The DNA also matched a sample provided by Leicester Police in October 2007. There is also this;
With respect to the trace evidence recovered behind the sofa all the confirmed DNA components coincide with corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeleine McCann. (swab 3A) http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MADELEINES_DNA.htm
So the DNA from the pillowcase, from the LP sample and on swab 3A all matched. Swab 3A was taken from the floor of 5A behind the sofa.
G-Unit.... Hmmm. I doubt that you meant it, but I find the reference to the 3A swab a bit misleading as there were only a few coinciding alleles on that one (which could have belonged to you, me or... anyone).
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on January 07, 2017, 04:38:25 PM
What was confirmed was that the pillowcase from Rothley had DNA on it consistent with a natural child of the McCanns. The DNA also matched a sample provided by Leicester Police in October 2007. There is also this;
With respect to the trace evidence recovered behind the sofa all the confirmed DNA components coincide with corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeleine McCann. (swab 3A) http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MADELEINES_DNA.htm
So the DNA from the pillowcase, from the LP sample and on swab 3A all matched. Swab 3A was taken from the floor of 5A behind the sofa.
A good example of how the DNA results have been misunderstood and misrepresented
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 07, 2017, 05:05:29 PM
Maybe not, I wasn't actually suggesting that it did. My thrust is that Googling is a recipe for disaster without at least a basic knowledge of what one is looking up otherwise one is likely to fall into this trap: "I know you think you understand what you thought I said but I'm not sure you realize that what you heard is not what I meant" The basic knowledge is better acquired from an authoritative book or preferably short training courses with a competency test at the end. That's how most companies outside the "PdL McCann Bubble" operate. Which is not far removed from what you appear to be saying ?{)(**
The DNA forensic results are simply not complicated.
There are online quizzes designed for junior high-school students (my old links no longer seem to work, but there are no doubt many others).
If anyone prefers an explanation from someone from the sceptic community, google nottextusa + DNA.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: jassi on January 07, 2017, 05:14:08 PM
G-Unit.... Hmmm. I doubt that you meant it, but I find the reference to the 3A swab a bit misleading as there were only a few coinciding alleles on that one (which could have belonged to you, me or... anyone).
Do you have a cite please?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Alice Purjorick on January 07, 2017, 05:46:23 PM
An incomplete DNA result was obtained from cellular material on the swab 3a. The swab contained very little information and showed low level indications of DNA from more than one person. However, all of the confirmed DNA components within this result match the corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeline McCann. LCN DNA profiling is highly sensitive it is not possible to attribute this DNA profile to a particular body fluid.
There is no evidence to support the view that Madeline MCCann contributed DNA to the swab 3B.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/JOHN_LOWE.htm
I've no idea whether Amaral even got this bit correct, but for what it's worth, there were apparently only 5 alleles in the flat sample - which, if true, means absolutely nothing. Zilch. Nada.
Five alleles could be compatible with yours, mine or those of virtually anyone else, or even a mixture.
GA: There is a recent report and there are two other reports. The first one mentions 15 alleles and here is the main question, it places the focus, they place the focus on that part of the exam from the vehicle, in the second [report] they then focus on the apartment, if on one side 15 alleles were not enough, in the other there were only 5 alleles that matched Madeleine McCann's genetic profile, what could be read there was that there were almost no problems. Because it's easily justifiable. It may not be justifiable with the cadaver odour on the spot where the blood sample was collected, but therefore, inside the house it is easy to justify, it's more difficult with a car that was rented more than twenty days later. So this is where the major confusion lies.
(Source: "The little girl died in that apartment" - Gonçalo Amaral on TVI, broadcast live on 28 July 2008 Thanks to 'astro' for transcription and translation Thanks to Joana Morais for collage
This is the transcript of an interview with Gonçalo Amaral, Paulo Reis and Duarte Levy, by Júlia Pinheiro, on 'As Tardes da Júlia', TVI, broadcast live on the 28th of July 2008.)
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: ferryman on January 07, 2017, 06:03:54 PM
Is that just your opinion or do you have a cite to confirm that was the official position of the FSS ?
Whatever was the official position of the FSS it seems (the FSS) failed, to explain the forensic results in terms certain elements of the PJ were able to understand.
To be clear, more of a failure on the part of the PJ than the FSS.
John Lowe tried to keep it as simple and clear as he could.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 07, 2017, 06:10:54 PM
Actually the DNA results were very complicated, which is why they were unable to make any meaningful interpretation from them.
Hmmm.
The actual DNA results weren't complicated. However, the results couldn't answer the issue as to whether the 15 alleles - out of the soup of 37 - were even hers (which could have been there for totally innocent reasons even if there had been some way of proving that they belonged to her: moving belongings, for example), let alone whether they were indicative of a dead child's remains.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 07, 2017, 06:16:53 PM
To know the official position of the FSS to the disclosures would be interesting. Diplomacy seems to have a big part to play.
IMO, the initial email from Lowe was an attempt to explain the basics, presumably for the attention of anyone unfamiliar with the subject at all: one bit comes from Mummy, the other bit comes from Daddy...
The formal report is just that... formal. Not intended for the same audience.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on January 07, 2017, 06:17:37 PM
IMO, the initial email from Lowe was an attempt to explain the basics, presumably for the attention of anyone unfamiliar with the subject at all: one bit comes from Mummy, the other bit comes from Daddy... ....
That would be taking it back to the basics.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 07, 2017, 06:27:38 PM
If I can understand the DNA results and many on here can they can't be complicated
Anyone can think they have understood it but the real test is proving they have they understood it correctly. How can you be sure you've understood it correctly? What proof can you provide? Give us some insight that you have by which we can assess your perfect knowledge on the topic please?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 07, 2017, 06:39:49 PM
Between 3-5 people decide to make a mixed soup. Each person brings along a number of ingredients. A number of the ingredients are the same (carrot, onion, sweetcorn, beans...) A few other different ingredients are whatever any of the people had in their cupboard / fridge.
Once the soup is made, you can't say that any of the vegetables in common were contributed by any one particular person. On the other hand, neither can you exclude that a combination of the same vegetables dumped into the pot were not donated by a particular person.
If a chili pepper and bits of courgette are found (and were not contributed by the supposed victim), then one or more other people contributed to that soup, as well as their own bits of carrot, sweetcorn and beans.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 07, 2017, 06:44:43 PM
Anyone can think they have understood it but the real test is proving they have they understood it correctly. How can you be sure you've understood it correctly? What proof can you provide? Give us some insight that you have by which we can assess your perfect knowledge on the topic please?
What is it that you don't understand, Rob?
Corte Real (the head of the PT forensic service) came to the same conclusion as Lowe.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 07, 2017, 06:55:30 PM
Corte Real (the head of the PT forensic service) came to the same conclusion as Lowe.
I'm not questioning your understanding, in fact you have repeatedly shown us you do understand. It just that I have never attempted to understand it but this time I was going to try. In the past I have understood they had Madeleine's DNA profile. (the pillow and the heel prick sample) That profile showed she was the biological offspring of her parents Kate and Gerry.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 07, 2017, 07:26:24 PM
I'm not questioning your understanding, in fact you have repeatedly shown us you do understand. It just that I have never attempted to understand it but this time I was going to try. In the past I have understood they had Madeleine's DNA profile. (the pillow and the heel prick sample) That that profile showed she was the biological offspring of her parents Kate and Gerry.
Yes. The pillow sample was a presumptive reference. I've never seen anything to indicate that it was a mixed sample. The other sample, stated as being a reference one appears to coinciide. It's not entirely clear whether the second one was indeed a heel-prick one, but that would seem to be the most logical source.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: G-Unit on January 07, 2017, 08:07:20 PM
An incomplete DNA result was obtained from cellular material on the swab 3a. The swab contained very little information and showed low level indications of DNA from more than one person. However, all of the confirmed DNA components within this result match the corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeline McCann. LCN DNA profiling is highly sensitive it is not possible to attribute this DNA profile to a particular body fluid.
There is no evidence to support the view that Madeline MCCann contributed DNA to the swab 3B.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/JOHN_LOWE.htm
I've no idea whether Amaral even got this bit correct, but for what it's worth, there were apparently only 5 alleles in the flat sample - which, if true, means absolutely nothing. Zilch. Nada.
Five alleles could be compatible with yours, mine or those of virtually anyone else, or even a mixture.
GA: There is a recent report and there are two other reports. The first one mentions 15 alleles and here is the main question, it places the focus, they place the focus on that part of the exam from the vehicle, in the second [report] they then focus on the apartment, if on one side 15 alleles were not enough, in the other there were only 5 alleles that matched Madeleine McCann's genetic profile, what could be read there was that there were almost no problems. Because it's easily justifiable. It may not be justifiable with the cadaver odour on the spot where the blood sample was collected, but therefore, inside the house it is easy to justify, it's more difficult with a car that was rented more than twenty days later. So this is where the major confusion lies.
(Source: "The little girl died in that apartment" - Gonçalo Amaral on TVI, broadcast live on 28 July 2008 Thanks to 'astro' for transcription and translation Thanks to Joana Morais for collage
This is the transcript of an interview with Gonçalo Amaral, Paulo Reis and Duarte Levy, by Júlia Pinheiro, on 'As Tardes da Júlia', TVI, broadcast live on the 28th of July 2008.)
I'm still not clear where you got this number of alleles from, sorry;
there were apparently only 5 alleles in the flat sample
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 07, 2017, 08:38:05 PM
I'm still not clear where you got this number of alleles from, sorry;
there were apparently only 5 alleles in the flat sample
I was referring to your post: http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=7862.msg373819#msg373819
in which you'd said that:
"What was confirmed was that the pillowcase from Rothley had DNA on it consistent with a natural child of the McCanns. The DNA also matched a sample provided by Leicester Police in October 2007. There is also this;
With respect to the trace evidence recovered behind the sofa all the confirmed DNA components coincide with corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeleine McCann. (swab 3A) http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MADELEINES_DNA.htm
So the DNA from the pillowcase, from the LP sample and on swab 3A all matched. Swab 3A was taken from the floor of 5A behind the sofa."
The way I understood what you were saying (or at least how it could be interpreted) is that there was a full match of her DNA profile on Swab 3A - which doesn't appear to be the case.
I haven't found anything other than swab 3a that Amaral could have been referring to, unless someone else has. Where he got the information that there were only 5 alleles... I have no idea as it can't be corroborated from the files.
Even if there HAD been a full profile match... she'd lived there for 5 days.
Don't forget that these swabs were taken months after her disappearance - and the flat was not only a holiday rental unit, but had been relet four times before these swabs were taken.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Alice Purjorick on January 07, 2017, 08:57:57 PM
I was referring to your post: http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=7862.msg373819#msg373819
in which you'd said that:
"What was confirmed was that the pillowcase from Rothley had DNA on it consistent with a natural child of the McCanns. The DNA also matched a sample provided by Leicester Police in October 2007. There is also this;
With respect to the trace evidence recovered behind the sofa all the confirmed DNA components coincide with corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeleine McCann. (swab 3A) http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MADELEINES_DNA.htm
So the DNA from the pillowcase, from the LP sample and on swab 3A all matched. Swab 3A was taken from the floor of 5A behind the sofa."
The way I understood what you were saying (or at least how it could be interpreted) is that there was a full match of her DNA profile on Swab 3A - which doesn't appear to be the case.
I haven't found anything other than swab 3a that Amaral could have been referring to, unless someone else has. Where he got the information that there were only 5 alleles... I have no idea as it can't be corroborated from the files.
Even if there HAD been a full profile match... she'd lived there for 5 days.
Don't forget that these swabs were taken months after her disappearance - and the flat was not only a holiday rental unit, but had been relet four times before these swabs were taken.
Well I never mentioned Amaral or 5 alleles, so I don't know where you got either of those. My information about swab 3A came from here;
Letter dated 11 September regarding FSS report received by PJ on on 4 September from Leicester Police, citing 15/19 matches of Madeleine DNA profile
This serves to add [to the case file] a laboratory examination report prepared in England, written in English and translated into Portuguese, delivered to this police force on 4 September 2007 by English police officer Stuart Prior.
This laboratory report tells about the examinations made of two trace evidence recoveries, one behind the living room sofa in apartment 5A and the other in the boot area of the vehicle used by the McCann family, hired [by them] from the end of May this year.
In some of these recoveries (samples) DNA was found whose components are also found in the profile of Madeleine McCann.
With respect to the trace evidence recovered behind the sofa all the confirmed DNA components coincide with corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeleine McCann.
In the sample collected in the boot area of the vehicle, 15 of the identified DNA components coincide with the corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeleine McCann, this of [having] 19 components.
This was written by Joao Carlos on 11th September. Was it him or Prior who got it wrong, and not Amaral?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Alice Purjorick on January 07, 2017, 10:36:15 PM
Whatever was the official position of the FSS it seems (the FSS) failed, to explain the forensic results in terms certain elements of the PJ were able to understand.
To be clear, more of a failure on the part of the PJ than the FSS.
John Lowe tried to keep it as simple and clear as he could.
So the same question to you: Is that your opinion or is it fact? If you are passing it of as fact a cite might come in handy.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 07, 2017, 10:43:16 PM
Well I never mentioned Amaral or 5 alleles, so I don't know where you got either of those. My information about swab 3A came from here;
Letter dated 11 September regarding FSS report received by PJ on on 4 September from Leicester Police, citing 15/19 matches of Madeleine DNA profile
This serves to add [to the case file] a laboratory examination report prepared in England, written in English and translated into Portuguese, delivered to this police force on 4 September 2007 by English police officer Stuart Prior.
This laboratory report tells about the examinations made of two trace evidence recoveries, one behind the living room sofa in apartment 5A and the other in the boot area of the vehicle used by the McCann family, hired [by them] from the end of May this year.
In some of these recoveries (samples) DNA was found whose components are also found in the profile of Madeleine McCann.
With respect to the trace evidence recovered behind the sofa all the confirmed DNA components coincide with corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeleine McCann.
In the sample collected in the boot area of the vehicle, 15 of the identified DNA components coincide with the corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeleine McCann, this of [having] 19 components.
This was written by Joao Carlos on 11th September. Was it him or Prior who got it wrong, and not Amaral?
Ah.... That seems to be a summary of what João understood at the time from the English report.
But then, where did you get the swab 3A from? That was in the original Lowe report, which João Carlos didn't specify.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 07, 2017, 11:02:20 PM
I sort of understood this email. http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MADELEINES_DNA.htm
"From: Lowe, Mr J R [mailto:John.Lowe@fss.pnn.police.uk Sent: 03 September 2007 15:01 To: stuart.prior@leicestershire.pnn.police.uk Subject: Op Task - In Confidence
Stuart
Firstly, here are the last three results you are expecting
An incomplete DNA result was obtained from cellular material on the swab 3a. The swab contained very little information and showed low level indications of DNA from more than one person. However, all of the confirmed DNA components within this result match the corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeline McCann. LCN DNA profiling is highly sensitive it is not possible to attribute this DNA profile to a particular body fluid.
There is no evidence to support the view that Madeline MCCann contributed DNA to the swab 3B.
A complex LCN DNA result which appeared to have originated from at least three people was obtained from cellular material recovered from the luggage compartment section 286C 2007 CRL10 (2) area 2. Within the DNA profile of Madeline McCann there are 20 DNA components represented by 19 peaks on a chart. At one of the areas of DNA we routinely examine Madeleine has inherited the same DNA component from both parents; this appears therefore as 1 peak rather than 2, hence 19 rather than 20. Of these 19 components 15 are present within the result from this item; there are 37 components in total. There are 37 components because there are at least 3 contributors; but there could be up to five contributors. In my opinion therefore this result is too complex for meaningful interpretation/inclusion.
Why - ...
Well lets look at the question that is being asked
"Is there DNA from Madeline on the swab "
It would be very simple to say "yes" simply because of the number of components within the result that are also in her reference sample.
What we need to consider, as scientists, is whether the match is genuine and legitimate; because Madeline has deposited DNA as a result of being in the car or whether Madeline merely appears to match the result by chance. The individual components in Madeline's profile are not unique to her, it is the specific combination of 19 components that makes her profile unique above all others. Elements of Madeline's profile are also present within the the profiles of many of the scientists here in Birmingham, myself included. it's important to stress that 50% of Madeline's profile will be shared with each parent. It is not possible in a mixture of more than two people, to determine or evaluate which specific DNA components pair with each other. Namely, we cannot separate the components out into 3 individual DNA profiles.
Therefore, we cannot answer the question: is the match genuine or is it a chance match.
The same applies to any result that is quoted as being too complex for meaningful inclusion/interpretation
What questions will we never be able to answer with LCN DNA profiling -
When was the DNA deposited - How was the DNA deposited - What body fluid(s) does the DIVA originate from - Was a crime committed -
These, along with all other results, will be formalised in a final report
Please don't hesitate to contact me if you require any further assistance
kind regards John
John Lowe Forensic Scientist Major Incidents Team Priory House Inter Facility: 703 6973 External: 0121 607 6973 Fax: 0121 6221807
Please consider the environment before printing this e-mail
Forensic Science Service Ltd ...."
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 08, 2017, 12:38:52 AM
I see those peaks are measured on a scale of 190 - 355 and to two decimal places so does that mean there could potentially be 13,500 peaks? (135 times 100) If that was the case for a blood sample to have 5 identical peaks and none other is one chance in 4.48403E+20 so that blood came from Madeleine But if the peaks are not found at each of those 13500 points then the chances will be somewhat less.
The alleles come in pairs one from the mother one from the father, and their weights are different but close so you get the two close peaks. So there is not going to be the vast number of peaks.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 08, 2017, 05:34:16 AM
".....it's important to stress that 50% of Madeline's profile will be shared with each parent." http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MADELEINES_DNA.htm
I'm not so sure that is correct. If it was there was going to be no way to separate the three McCann children.
LCN = Low copy number. "The increased sensitivity of LCN also increases the risks posed by contamination of samples in the laboratory. Since LCN aims to amplify levels of DNA as low as 100 picograms, even breathing on a sample may contaminate it substantially enough to render the final profile unusable[citation needed]. Contamination is particularly problematic before the sample has undergone amplification because both the suspect's and the contaminator's DNA will be amplified, resulting in a mixed profile. Moreover, the small amounts of DNA that LCN aims to amplify also increase the probability of PCR artifacts appearing on profiles such as stochastic effects."
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: jassi on January 08, 2017, 08:56:51 AM
".....it's important to stress that 50% of Madeline's profile will be shared with each parent." http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MADELEINES_DNA.htm
I'm not so sure that is correct. If it was the case there was going to be no way to separate the three McCann children by DNA testing.
LCN = Low copy number. "Low template DNA problems" http://www2.le.ac.uk/departments/emfpu/genetics/explained/low-problems
"As LCN can be recovered from an area where no discrete stain (e.g. blood, semen, saliva) is visible, it can be hard to establish how an individual's DNA came to be there. An occurrence known as secondary transfer can mean that a person's DNA could be present at a scene when the person themselves was not."
It is. The only DNA that is available is that which comes from the parents. It all depends on how the DNA combines at conception that determines an individual's DNA profile. Even the twin's profiles might have significant differences because they are not identical twins.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 08, 2017, 09:03:59 AM
It is. The only DNA that is available is that which comes from the parents. It all depends on how the DNA combines at conception that determines an individual's DNA profile. Even the twin's profiles might have significant differences because they are not identical twins.
I see it now - we say half from mum and half from dad but each time the parent's whole is divided up differently. Each child does not receive a similar half. Thanks
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 08, 2017, 11:03:39 AM
I see it now - we say half from mum and half from dad but each time the parent's whole is divided up differently. Each child does not receive a similar half. Thanks
Yes - because mum and dad themselves inherited one allele from each of their parents at each locus. That means that a child could inherit one of two from mum and one of two from dad (i.e., a possibility of 4 combinations) at any locus. While some siblings may inherit the same allele base pair at some loci, there are a vast amount of loci, and at each there will 4 possible combinations.
Think of the sex gene, which is usually depicted as "XX (female) and "XY" (male).
So, you have:
Mother Father X X XY
Child X + X = a girl.
X + X = a girl.
X + Y = a boy.
X + Y = a boy.
The alleles at other loci are expressed as numbers (e.g. "6,9" or "11,15") because there are more possible variations than simply an x or y value.
However, whichever of the 4 combinations a child inherits, it's still a matter of one bit from mummy and one bit from daddy, i.e. half or 50% from each.
Edited for clarification.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 08, 2017, 05:57:32 PM
I was thinking more in terms of the process of recombination during meiosis which mixes up the alleles before the gametes are produced. It is a complicated process and it is more than just whole chromosomes as exampled by your post on "X and Y genes" (X and Y are actually chromosomes not genes). But I know you meant well. Thanks
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 08, 2017, 06:37:39 PM
I was thinking more in terms of the process of recombination during meiosis which mixes up the alleles before the gametes are produced. It is a complicated process and it is more than just whole chromosomes as exampled by your post on "X and Y genes" (X and Y are actually chromosomes not genes). But I know you meant well. Thanks
What are you trying to work out as regards Madeleine?
NB: I didn't say that X and Y were genes. But that's ok. ;)
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 08, 2017, 06:49:48 PM
I see those peaks are measured on a scale of 190 - 355 and to two decimal places so does that mean there could potentially be 13,500 peaks? (135 times 100) If that was the case for a blood sample to have 5 identical peaks and none other is one chance in 4.48403E+20 so that blood came from Madeleine But if the peaks are not found at each of those 13500 points then the chances will be somewhat less.
The alleles come in pairs one from the mother one from the father, and their weights are different but close so you get the two close peaks. So there is not going to be the vast number of peaks.
Rob, I don't undestand what you're getting at...
From what I can gather (and I happily admit that it isn't an area that I was particularly interested in), the graph with peaks is apparently an electropherogram, measuring the "strength" of the amount of DNA present, and helps to determine whether the peaks represent a true allele or irrelevant background noise.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 08, 2017, 07:03:15 PM
From what I can gather (and I happily admit that it isn't an area that I was particularly interested in), the graph with peaks is apparently an electropherogram, measuring the "strength" of the amount of DNA present, and helps to determine whether the peaks represent a true allele or irrelevant background noise.
Yes when you look at the charts the peaks are spaced out but most times there is another peak real close (these are the two alleles of that gene. They have similar length so they have a similar weight. I read about the methods of LCN DNA analysis and I started to understand it. Alleles can drop out (not copied) or drop in with contamination. There can also be spluttering where the alleles don't copy perfectly and you get multiple peaks close together.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 08, 2017, 10:55:18 PM
(http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/OA_1_1/01_volume_I_o_apenso_I_Page_277.jpg) I see 9 occasions where there are spaced out results with two peaks close together, e.g. the pair of alleles at (166.52) and (170.58).
There are two incidents of "Allele drop out" where there is a single peak and no allele pair at (103.07). and another later (186.04).
At 204.83 (top chart) there are 4 small peaks that look like "sputtering".
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 08, 2017, 11:22:08 PM
What are you trying to work out as regards Madeleine?
NB: I didn't say that X and Y were genes. But that's ok. ;)
You said "Think of the sex gene, which is usually depicted as "XX (female) and "XY" (male). " I think you meant to say the "sex chromosomes", as in: "Think of the sex chromosomes, which is usually depicted as "XX (female) and "XY" (male). "
http://www.biology-online.org/dictionary/Sex_chromosome "A somatic cell contains a genome comprised of paired chromosomes: the autosomes and sex chromosomes. In humans, there are two forms of sex chromosomes: the X chromosome and Y chromosome. A pair of X and Y results in a male while a combination of X and X results in a female. This XX/XY sex-determination system is one of the most familiar sex-determination systems and is applicable in human beings and most other mammals. In this system, the sex of an organism is determined by the sex chromosomes since these chromosomes bear the genes that control the development of reproductive organs and other sexual characteristics of an organism."
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 09, 2017, 01:36:21 AM
You said "Think of the sex gene, which is usually depicted as "XX (female) and "XY" (male). " I think you meant to say the "sex chromosomes", as in: "Think of the sex chromosomes, which is usually depicted as "XX (female) and "XY" (male). "
http://www.biology-online.org/dictionary/Sex_chromosome "A somatic cell contains a genome comprised of paired chromosomes: the autosomes and sex chromosomes. In humans, there are two forms of sex chromosomes: the X chromosome and Y chromosome. A pair of X and Y results in a male while a combination of X and X results in a female. This XX/XY sex-determination system is one of the most familiar sex-determination systems and is applicable in human beings and most other mammals. In this system, the sex of an organism is determined by the sex chromosomes since these chromosomes bear the genes that control the development of reproductive organs and other sexual characteristics of an organism."
OK, I could have been clearer. X and Y are chromosomes, but I was thinking of the sex gene in terms of amelogenin.
Yes when you look at the charts the peaks are spaced out but most times there is another peak real close (these are the two alleles of that gene. They have similar length so they have a similar weight. I read about the methods of LCN DNA analysis and I started to understand it. Alleles can drop out (not copied) or drop in with contamination. There can also be spluttering where the alleles don't copy perfectly and you get multiple peaks close together.
Interpreting the peaks seems quite specialised: http://www.bioforensics.com/dna-testing-issues/
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 09, 2017, 02:11:29 AM
I didn't know that. amelogenin the paternity sex gene. OK.
Hmm, it doesn't determine paternity, as such. Determining paternity (to whatever degree of probability) is the result of all of the allele values at the various markers / loci examined.
Examining the amelogenin marker wouldn't establish that Gerry is Madeleine's biological father (or Kate, the mother) - it establishes the fact that the sample belongs to a female. If ever the pillow stain had shown XY, then irrespective of whether all the rest of the results were compatible with Gerry being the father or Kate, the mother, the profile in the stain couldn't have belonged to Madeleine.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 09, 2017, 04:39:23 AM
Hmm, it doesn't determine paternity, as such. Determining paternity (to whatever degree of probability) is the result of all of the allele values at the various markers / loci examined.
Examining the amelogenin marker wouldn't establish that Gerry is Madeleine's biological father (or Kate, the mother) - it establishes the fact that the sample belongs to a female. If ever the pillow stain had shown XY, then irrespective of whether all the rest of the results were compatible with Gerry being the father or Kate, the mother, the profile in the stain couldn't have belonged to Madeleine.
Very good and thanks for the correction. Learning heaps thanks. I'll make some corrections later.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 09, 2017, 07:51:08 AM
Yes when you look at the charts the peaks are spaced out but most times there is another peak real close (these are the two alleles of that gene. They have similar length so they have a similar weight. I read about the methods of LCN DNA analysis and I started to understand it. Alleles can drop out (not copied) or drop in with contamination. There can also be spluttering where the alleles don't copy perfectly and you get multiple peaks close together.
The 103 location I now believe is the amelogenin allele (x,y) and because Madeleine was a female she is homozygous so it shows as a single peak. The other single peak is the site where she inherited the same allele from both parents and hence homozygous there at the 186.84 site. I saw a chart with the total number of alleles commonly found and it was less than 100 sites. (http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/OA_1_1/01_volume_I_o_apenso_I_Page_277.jpg)
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 09, 2017, 09:53:26 AM
I want to be able to understand the meaning behind the DNA analyses in the case. I want to be able to understand this paragraph "Of these 19 components 15 are present within the result from this item; there are 37 components in total. There are 37 components because there are at least 3 contributors; but there could be up to five contributors. In my opinion therefore this result is too complex for meaningful interpretation/inclusion."
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: stephen25000 on January 09, 2017, 09:55:40 AM
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 09, 2017, 10:03:32 AM
Typing on here has taken but a few minutes. I've watched several lectures on DNA analysis https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=UUjpWy3YdG24iySWTBS4jU2Q Dane Crane a professor and a very good lecturer. It would take 2 days to watch all 16 of the videos. and to fully understand it all I might need to go through them twice.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 09, 2017, 10:11:53 AM
For understanding mixed samples https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wVHo1Pjf210&list=UUjpWy3YdG24iySWTBS4jU2Q&index=13
"Statistical weights of mixed DNA profiles (HD version)"
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on January 09, 2017, 11:43:18 AM
With respect you don't need it and it won't help Carana has explained it very well The sample just wasn't good enough and came from a mix of at least 3 different people Although elements of Maddies DNA were there those elements could have come from other people
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: ferryman on January 09, 2017, 02:28:53 PM
With respect you don't need it and it won't help Carana has explained it very well The sample just wasn't good enough and came from a mix of at least 3 different people Although elements of Maddies DNA were there those elements could have come from other people
OR from Madeleine, by secondary-transfer. Items of her clothing or other belongings with her dna on it, transported in the boot and with her dna on it, transferred into the mix.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 09, 2017, 09:08:23 PM
OR from Madeleine, by secondary-transfer. Items of her clothing or other belongings with her dna on it, transported in the boot and with her dna on it, transferred into the mix.
How would these other people's cells get into the places where they took the swabs? OK there maybe the odd cell or two floating around and landing on an upper surface but weren't the swabs taken from under a mat?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 09, 2017, 09:21:31 PM
With respect you don't need it and it won't help Carana has explained it very well The sample just wasn't good enough and came from a mix of at least 3 different people Although elements of Maddies DNA were there those elements could have come from other people
Where are the results, which chart are we considering? Which chart shows evidence of 3 different people being the source? It certainly isn't the one we have been referring to up till now. I'd say that is more the reference sample. If it isn't where is the reference sample? Note: That chart I see is produced Wed May 23 2007 so it is produced before the swabs were taken from the car.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 09, 2017, 09:35:56 PM
Important Note: That chart I see is produced Wed May 23 2007 so it is produced before the swabs were taken from the car. So this is definitely the reference sample.
Where are the evidence sample's DNA Profile results that came from the back of the hire car?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 10, 2017, 06:55:13 AM
But did they? Was it confirmed that Madeleine was the biological daughter of Kate and Gerry McCann?
"- We carried out a profile comparison obtained from the autosomal STRs of Kate McCann and Gerald McCann and of the profile sent us.
- The probability of the McCann couple being the biological parents of the female individual in that test is 99,9828 %." http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MADELEINES_DNA.htm
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 10, 2017, 07:29:24 AM
A very specific study on the topic has been recorded on Gerry McCann's blogs http://www.gerrymccannsblogs.co.uk/press/89sep14/MyMcCann_15_09_2014.htm#9 Look down to the heading "THE HIRE CAR SAMPLING."
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 10, 2017, 08:37:33 AM
The electropherograms from the DNA analysis for the samples taken from the hire car don't seem to have been released so they cannot be analysed independently.
"Electropherograms are also output from capillary electrophoresis instruments. Electropherograms may be used to determine DNA sequence genotypes, or genotypes that are based on the length of specific DNA fragments. These genotypes can be used for: genealogical DNA testing. paternity testing."
I had been studying up on these electropherograms for the last two days and I was keen to see if I could see evidence of up to 5 individuals in the mixed sample.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 10, 2017, 04:41:06 PM
Professor Dan Kane says it is impossible to see evidence of more than 3 persons in the mix. To have proof of 5 there would have to be 9 peaks showing at any one locus. That would be a first! "Statistical weights of mixed DNA profiles" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=daRBTopFA1A&index=5&list=UUjpWy3YdG24iySWTBS4jU2Q
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: jassi on January 10, 2017, 04:43:46 PM
All very interesting and educational. Just goes to show that DNA forensics doesn't always add to a case. ?{)(**
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on January 10, 2017, 04:50:05 PM
Professor Dan Kane says it is impossible to see evidence of more than 3 persons in the mix. To have proof of 5 there would have to be 9 peaks showing at any one locus. That would be a first! "Statistical weights of mixed DNA profiles" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=daRBTopFA1A&index=5&list=UUjpWy3YdG24iySWTBS4jU2Q
Perhaps that's why the FSS said three and POSSIBLY five
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 10, 2017, 04:55:20 PM
All very interesting and educational. Just goes to show that DNA forensics doesn't always add to a case. ?{)(**
I've watched the series of lectures and it was an eye opener, for he explains how it possible to deceive the jury using the DNA evidence. It is all a matter of priming the lab technicians with enough "evidence" about the case so the analyst puts the right amount of emphasis on the right debatable aspects. Who can argue with an expert.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: jassi on January 10, 2017, 04:57:45 PM
I've watched the series of lectures and it was an eye opener, for he explains how it possible to deceive the jury using the DNA evidence. It is all a matter of priming the lab technicians with enough "evidence" about the case so the analyst puts the right amount of emphasis on the right debatable aspects. Who can argue with an expert.
Another expert
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 10, 2017, 05:19:30 PM
It is a lot harder than you realise. The results can be read in different ways but the one that shows the accused as guilty has a strong argument. He (Dan Krane) didn't go into how that could be defended. E.g. Saying the lab could have made mistakes doesn't carry as much kudos.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 11, 2017, 01:28:45 AM
from the 19 alleles listed on the document below in the table "Profile":(http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/OA_1_1/01_volume_I_o_apenso_I_Page_276.jpg) at the 10 loci listed it should be possible to reinstate the loci headings on this page where the electropherograms are displayed in spite of the fact that the loci names have been crossed out in the graphs displayed on the page below. (http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/01_volume_I_o_apenso_I_Page_277_small1.jpg)
Until we can get the evidence sample results we are stuck being unable to assess whether the Forensic Science Service Ltd was correct in saying the sample was not proof that Madeleine's cadaver was in the car or not. If the sample was mixed sample just sourced from Gerry and Kate there would be a total of 37 different alleles to show up, and I think their profiles were already known, so if there were additional alleles appearing that suggests a third person in the mix.
"A complex LCN DNA result which appeared to have originated from at least three people was obtained from cellular material recovered from the luggage compartment section 286C 2007 CRL10 (2) area 2. Within the DNA profile of Madeline McCann there are 20 DNA components represented by 19 peaks on a chart. At one of the areas of DNA we routinely examine Madeleine has inherited the same DNA component from both parents; this appears therefore as 1 peak rather than 2, hence 19 rather than 20. Of these 19 components 15 are present within the result from this item; there are 37 components in total. There are 37 components because there are at least 3 contributors; but there could be up to five contributors. In my opinion therefore this result is too complex for meaningful interpretation/inclusion." http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MADELEINES_DNA.htm
4 of the 19 alleles belonging to Madeleine were missing so the mixed sample is not likely to be both the mother and the father for then all the missing alleles would have been replaced. It could be the mother plus someone else (so the sex allele stays the same). I think the result could also occur if one of Kate's eggs were fertilized with Gerry's sperm producing a closely related individual of the female sex.
The lecture by Dan Krane covered related individuals (quite difficult to understand it all though). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=daRBTopFA1A&list=UUjpWy3YdG24iySWTBS4jU2Q&index=5 for mixed samples.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 11, 2017, 03:09:24 AM
In fact I read a sentence in the last few days in a document where it said something to the effect that as far as the McCanns know there are no other biological children (other than their 3 kids Madeleine, Sean and Amelie. It was definitely worded "as far as it is known" or words meaning the same thing. Has anyone else seen this report?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 11, 2017, 08:05:57 AM
"Of these 19 components 15 are present within the result from this item; there are 37 components in total. There are 37 components because there are at least 3 contributors;..." In professor Dan Krane's opinion if the allele is absent from the evidence sample the suspect should be excluded. On that basis since 19 alleles of Madeleine were known and only 15 of these were present in the evidence sample (from the back of the Renault) he would take that to mean it wasn't Madeleine present in the boot of that car. I wonder if he has ever considered the McCann case himself. I may even pluck up courage and right to him via his website www.bioforensics.com
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 11, 2017, 08:19:18 AM
Email to Dan Krane Hi Professor Dan Krane,
I have been watching and learning about DNA profiles etc from you Youtube lecture series and have found them very educational. I will certainly be recommending them in the discussions we are having on the forum.
On page 7 of the thread http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=7862.90 I am using my knowledge based on what you have said and concluded that Madeleine was not the source of the evidence sample. ""Of these 19 components 15 are present within the result from this item; there are 37 components in total. There are 37 components because there are at least 3 contributors;..." In professor Dan Krane's opinion if the allele is absent from the evidence sample the suspect should be excluded. On that basis since 19 alleles of Madeleine were known and only 15 of these were present in the evidence sample (from the back of the Renault) he would take that to mean it wasn't Madeleine present in the boot of that car."
In the case of a suspect you might adopt that criteria but would you also use it in a missing person case? Have you ever looked at the Madeleine McCann case?
I would love to hear back what your opinion was? Thanks.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 11, 2017, 12:19:28 PM
from the 19 alleles listed on the document below in the table "Profile":(http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/OA_1_1/01_volume_I_o_apenso_I_Page_276.jpg) at the 10 loci listed it should be possible to reinstate the loci headings on this page where the electropherograms are displayed in spite of the fact that the loci names have been crossed out in the graphs displayed on the page below. (http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/01_volume_I_o_apenso_I_Page_277_small1.jpg)
Until we can get the evidence sample results we are stuck being unable to assess whether the Forensic Science Service Ltd was correct in saying the sample was not proof that Madeleine's cadaver was in the car or not. If the sample was mixed sample just sourced from Gerry and Kate there would be a total of 37 different alleles to show up, and I think their profiles were already known, so if there were additional alleles appearing that suggests a third person in the mix.
"A complex LCN DNA result which appeared to have originated from at least three people was obtained from cellular material recovered from the luggage compartment section 286C 2007 CRL10 (2) area 2. Within the DNA profile of Madeline McCann there are 20 DNA components represented by 19 peaks on a chart. At one of the areas of DNA we routinely examine Madeleine has inherited the same DNA component from both parents; this appears therefore as 1 peak rather than 2, hence 19 rather than 20. Of these 19 components 15 are present within the result from this item; there are 37 components in total. There are 37 components because there are at least 3 contributors; but there could be up to five contributors. In my opinion therefore this result is too complex for meaningful interpretation/inclusion." http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MADELEINES_DNA.htm
4 of the 19 alleles belonging to Madeleine were missing so the mixed sample is not likely to be both the mother and the father for then all the missing alleles would have been replaced. It could be the mother plus someone else (so the sex allele stays the same). I think the result could also occur if one of Kate's eggs were fertilized with Gerry's sperm producing a closely related individual of the female sex.
The lecture by Dan Krane covered related individuals (quite difficult to understand it all though). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=daRBTopFA1A&list=UUjpWy3YdG24iySWTBS4jU2Q&index=5 for mixed samples.
Thanks for the link to Dan Krane's video. I'm only up to around 22 mins, but will watch the rest later. So far, I find it to be well explained.
The key point of interest to me is how far the probability changes when just 1 result out of 26 potentially different alleles (the FBI database examines 13 markers) is discounted as irrelevant background noise when, in fact, it may not be. I wonder how many people are on Death Row as a result? I also wonder how many in the UK may be serving lengthy prison sentences when they only examine 10...
The UK forensic system examines (or did) 10 markers (i.e. it searches for 2 alleles at each of the 10 loci). There was talk of moving to a higher number and I haven't followed whether it eventually did or not, nor why exactly they may not have done. The more, the better, I would have thought.
The INML in Portugal did their very best in M's case in the samples submitted to them (mainly related to the flat shortly after her disappearance), using two different kits to maximise the number of loci to examine. (The two kits largely overlap in terms of loci, but there were a few extra ones.)
That said, from what I've listened to so far, the context seems to be within the context of a defendant being convicted who may not have been the real perpetrator of a crime.
For the moment, the 15/37 boot issue seems quite different to me: DESPITE the fact that the UK system only examines 10 loci, there was evidence of "at least 3 contributors; but there could be up to five contributors":
"A complex LCN DNA result which appeared to have originated from at least three people was obtained from cellular material recovered from the luggage compartment section 286C 2007 CRL10 (2) area 2. Within the DNA profile of Madeline McCann there are 20 DNA components represented by 19 peaks on a chart. At one of the areas of DNA we routinely examine Madeleine has inherited the same DNA component from both parents; this appears therefore as 1 peak rather than 2, hence 19 rather than 20. Of these 19 components 15 are present within the result from this item; there are 37 components in total. There are 37 components because there are at least 3 contributors; but there could be up to five contributors. In my opinion therefore this result is too complex for meaningful interpretation/inclusion." http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MADELEINES_DNA.htm
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 11, 2017, 12:35:50 PM
To put it another way: Kane was explaining the probability of error in eliminating what may or may not be an irrelevant peak of background noise in one of the 13 loci (therefore only relying on the results of 12).
As I haven't listened to the rest yet, I don't know if Kane went on to present the results if only 11 or 10 had been examined.
Lowe only had 10 loci (markers) to examine, but even so, there were was still evidence of at least 3 contributors.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 11, 2017, 04:40:08 PM
To put it another way: Kane was explaining the probability of error in eliminating what may or may not be an irrelevant peak of background noise in one of the 13 loci (therefore only relying on the results of 12).
As I haven't listened to the rest yet, I don't know if Kane went on to present the results if only 11 or 10 had been examined.
Lowe only had 10 loci (markers) to examine, but even so, there were was still evidence of at least 3 contributors.
If at any single locus the results showed 3 alleles then there is a mixed sample of at least 2 people. If at any single locus the results showed 5 alleles then there is a mixed sample of at least 3 people.
So I'd expect in the results on the Renault to show at least one locus the results showed 5 alleles. Multiple occurrences of any single loci having 3 alleles does not mean there was more than two people in the mix.
Put it this way I'm still confused by the methods of assessing the results.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 11, 2017, 09:33:45 PM
If at any single locus the results showed 3 alleles then there is a mixed sample of at least 2 people. If at any single locus the results showed 5 alleles then there is a mixed sample of at least 3 people.
So I'd expect in the results on the Renault to show at least one locus the results showed 5 alleles. Multiple occurrences of any single loci having 3 alleles does not mean there was more than two people in the mix.
Put it this way I'm still confused by the methods of assessing the results.
Lowe doesn't say that there were loci with 3 alleles (which could indeed be the result of just 2 contributors), but that there were at least 3 contributors.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 11, 2017, 10:00:16 PM
Lowe doesn't say that there were loci with 3 alleles (which could indeed be the result of just 2 contributors), but that there were at least 3 contributors.
That must be the case though for they are looking at 10 loci and the maximum for a single person is two, and Madeleine had one where she was homozygous, so if the evidence test showed that homozygous site to have 4 alleles there that would imply at least 3 in the mix. Maybe Gerry and Kate were homozygous on this allele too which then could bump it up to 5 in the mix. Unless we get the additional profiles from the parents we are just guessing, but the analysts seem to allow for guesses when they are analysing DNA profiles where they talk in terms of unknown imaginary people contributing to the profile.
There were 37 alleles found so on average that is 3.7 per locus. But you can only have whole numbers of alleles, 3 or 4 but not 3.7, so the most even spread would be 7 loci with 4 alleles and 3 with 3 alleles, totalling 37 alleles in all.
Answering your point if there were 4 alleles at the locus where Madeleine was homozygous. That is the one from her, and 3 others which must have come from at least 2 other people.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 11, 2017, 10:44:43 PM
That must be the case though for they are looking at 10 loci and the maximum for a single person is two, and Madeleine had one where she was homozygous, so if the evidence test showed that homozygous site to have 4 alleles there that would imply at least 3 in the mix. Maybe Gerry and Kate were homozygous on this allele too which then could bump it up to 5 in the mix. Unless we get the additional profiles from the parents we are just guessing, but the analysts seem to allow for guesses when they are analysing DNA profiles where they talk in terms of unknown imaginary people contributing to the profile.
There were 37 alleles found so on average that is 3.7 per locus. But you can only have whole numbers of alleles, 3 or 4 but not 3.7, so the most even spread would be 7 loci with 4 alleles and 3 with 3 alleles, totalling 37 alleles in all.
The forensic results of the boot weren't released in the accessible files for some unknown reason. What is known is that Corte Real agreed with Lowe.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 11, 2017, 10:50:05 PM
The forensic results of the boot weren't released in the accessible files for some unknown reason. What is known is that Corte Real agreed with Lowe.
Who is Corte Real? I'm not disagreeing with Lowe, other than what I learnt from Dan Krane where he said if the reference sample has alleles that are not in the evidence sample the suspect is excluded, i.e it is not Madeleine but Lowe does not categorically rule out the sample as coming from Madeleine.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 11, 2017, 11:01:17 PM
Who is Corte Real? I'm not disagreeing with Lowe, other than what I learnt from Dan Krane where he said if the reference sample has alleles that are not in the evidence sample the suspect is excluded, i.e it is not Madeleine but Lowe does not categorically rule out the sample as coming from Madeleine.
Corte Real was the head of the INML (the PT forensic institute).
I haven't watched the rest of Kane's video yet. Will try to do that tomorrow at some point.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 11, 2017, 11:04:03 PM
Corte Real was the head of the INML (the PT forensic institute).
I haven't watched the rest of Kane's video yet. Will try to do that tomorrow at some point.
There were 8 of them all about 1 hour long. I found an article mentioning Corte-Real http://www.standard.co.uk/news/madeleine-mccanns-in-the-clear-as-dna-evidence-proves-inconclusive-6688356.html
A Google search brought me back to this forum and a former post by you. http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=1147.msg32352#msg32352
In the same thread John brings up a matter of law that I don't know about "Could it be that the Portuguese wanted to apply their Law as relates to the number of DNA markers which constitute a match and this was unacceptable to the UK whose baseline is 20 markers for a match under the Law?"
Another post by you says "As Debunker pointed out, the initial PT police team didn't seem to understand the soup issue for some reason. Even if there had been all 19 present, the situation would still be the same. " which is what I'm claiming is incorrect. If there were the 19 found she could be included but since the were only 15 out of the 19 found she is excluded.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 11, 2017, 11:16:25 PM
There were 8 of them all about 1 hour long. I found an article mentioning Corte-Real http://www.standard.co.uk/news/madeleine-mccanns-in-the-clear-as-dna-evidence-proves-inconclusive-6688356.html
A Google search brought me back to this forum and a former post by you. http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=1147.msg32352#msg32352
Corte Real was interviewed in Amaral's "documentary", but his fans have a tendency to gloss over what he said.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 11, 2017, 11:17:37 PM
There were 8 of them all about 1 hour long. I found an article mentioning Corte-Real http://www.standard.co.uk/news/madeleine-mccanns-in-the-clear-as-dna-evidence-proves-inconclusive-6688356.html
A Google search brought me back to this forum and a former post by you. http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=1147.msg32352#msg32352
LOL Thanks for finding that. I knew I'd posted it before.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 11, 2017, 11:24:54 PM
Corte Real was interviewed in Amaral's "documentary", but his fans have a tendency to gloss over what he said.
Did they?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 11, 2017, 11:38:23 PM
This article seems to bridge both threads hot at the moment http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/new-police-blow-for-mccanns-525012 "New police blow for McCanns Kate and Gerry McCann's hopes of being cleared over daughter Madeleine's disappearance were rocked last night. http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/new-police-blow-for-mccanns-525012
BY VICTORIA WARD 00:00, 1 DEC 2007 UPDATED 00:22, 3 FEB 2012
....
"There are more and more indicators that they were involved in the disappearance of the child. But it's been been difficult to prove."
A four-man Portuguese police team arrived back in Faro yesterday after a two-day summit with British forensic experts.
They met police chief Paulo Rebelo. Significantly, they were joined by Britain's ambassador to Portugal Alex Ellis and consulate official Angela Morado.
Officers believed DNA tests by the Forensics Science Services in Birmingham would be damning enough to charge the McCanns.
Vice president of the Portuguese national pathology lab, Francisco Corte Real, could not hide his disappointment as he said: "There's nothing to say for now."
Police yesterday returned a diary and computers seized from Murat's girlfriend Michaela Walczuch, 34, admitting they found nothing linking her to the tot's disappearance."
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 11, 2017, 11:46:00 PM
This is interesting in that the Portuguese seem real suspicious that someone hobbled the tests at the FSS. http://netk.net.au/Madeleine/Madeleine48.asp "On 29 November 2007 Nick Fagge of the Daily Express reported on Madeleine McCann He said that police flew to Britain yesterday to view evidence which could condemn or clear Madeleine McCann’s parents of involvement in her disappearance. The visit – dubbed a DNA summit – is crucial to Portuguese detectives who have accused the doctors of being directly involved in the four-year-old’s death. The decision by the team, which includes the second in command of Portugal’s forensic science service, caught the McCanns and their lawyers completely by surprise. The team want to be briefed on the precise methods used by the British scientists who analysed the forensic evidence which led to the McCanns being named as arguidos, or official suspects, in September, a police source revealed yesterday. He said: “The investigators are hugely anxious. It is hoped that the tests are conclusive this time. “The meeting with UK forensic experts will enable investigators to see what’s already been analysed and find out what information is already available from the results the English scientists obtained.” The meeting, due to start first thing this morning, was expected to analyse in fine detail the implications of the results of DNA evidence from the couple’s holiday apartment and hire car. The strength of the evidence, which has been the subject of widespread speculation, will help detectives to decide if the McCanns have a case to answer. The Portuguese prosecutor will rely on this heavily as he composes a letter to Leicestershire police, in which he may ask them to re-interview the McCanns and their friends, and explain the exact nature of the further questions he wants them to face. The four-man team is made up of Inspector Ricardo Praia, a detective with the investigative Policia Judiciaria, two police forensic science experts and the vice-president of Portugal’s National Pathology Institute, Francisco Corte Real. They will meet senior officials from the Forensic Science Service laboratory in Birmingham at a secret location. The team want to familiarise themselves with the pioneering methods used so that they can explain them to the investigating magistrate in the Algarve who will decide whether to charge or clear the McCanns. The source added: “They are going to England to decode the results of the tests so we are not caught by surprise.” He added: “The team that is going to the UK is going to examine everything microscopically to make sure the tests have not been manipulated by someone linked to the suspects. “We want to be sure all the information that reaches us has not previously been interfered with.” The meeting was also due to be attended by Detective Supt Stuart Prior, who is in charge of the Leicestershire police operation, working under the direction of the Portuguese force. Last night Clarence Mitchell, the McCanns’ official spokesman, said the couple from Rothley, Leics, had nothing to fear from the visit. He said: “We have been informed by Leicestershire police that a meeting between forensic scientists from Portugal and the Forensic Science Service laboratory will be taking place. “We understand there is no intention for the McCanns to be interviewed or indeed anybody else. That such a meeting is taking place is not particularly surprising and we do not see this as a significant development.”
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: ShiningInLuz on January 11, 2017, 11:49:27 PM
This article seems to bridge both threads hot at the moment http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/new-police-blow-for-mccanns-525012 "New police blow for McCanns Kate and Gerry McCann's hopes of being cleared over daughter Madeleine's disappearance were rocked last night. http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/new-police-blow-for-mccanns-525012
BY VICTORIA WARD
....
"There are more and more indicators that they were involved in the disappearance of the child. But it's been been difficult to prove."
A four-man Portuguese police team arrived back in Faro yesterday after a two-day summit with British forensic experts.
They met police chief Paulo Rebelo. Significantly, they were joined by Britain's ambassador to Portugal Alex Ellis and consulate official Angela Morado.
Officers believed DNA tests by the Forensics Science Services in Birmingham would be damning enough to charge the McCanns.
Vice president of the Portuguese national pathology lab, Francisco Corte Real, could not hide his disappointment as he said: "There's nothing to say for now."
Police yesterday returned a diary and computers seized from Murat's girlfriend Michaela Walczuch, 34, admitting they found nothing linking her to the tot's disappearance."
Start sticking dates for these articles on the forum or watch them disappear. Old news is precisely that, and I have better things to do.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 11, 2017, 11:53:07 PM
Oops an oversight sorry - dates how silly of me.
In the article itself it says "On 29 November 2007 Nick Fagge of the Daily Express reported on Madeleine McCann...."
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 11, 2017, 11:57:44 PM
Corte Real was interviewed in Amaral's "documentary", but his fans have a tendency to gloss over what he said.
I found that documentary and the transcript Dated 2009? Posted Thu Aug 20, 2009. http://themaddiecasefiles.com/topic7.html "Dr Francisco Corte-Real Vice President, National Forensics Institute
33.09 – When those 15 alleles are included in a mix, where beyond those 15 we can have another 30 or 40 alleles, that means that it includes biological material from several persons. And there it can be much more difficult, much more inconclusive, because we may have a mixture from several persons, including hypothetically, if that happens, we may have several persons from the same family, and that may even give us the idea, in a way, that a certain missing person may be included, and that is not conclusive."
So he uses the words "Not conclusive" but not "exclude".
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 12, 2017, 07:10:59 AM
Professor Dan Kane says it is impossible to see evidence of more than 3 persons in the mix. To have proof of 5 there would have to be 9 peaks showing at any one locus. That would be a first! "Statistical weights of mixed DNA profiles" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=daRBTopFA1A&index=5&list=UUjpWy3YdG24iySWTBS4jU2Q
I don't recall him saying that...
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 12, 2017, 07:16:01 AM
I might have misheard or misunderstood it. But they ran some trials and were surprised that the number of alleles was lower than expected. I'll go through it again and see if I can correct myself.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 12, 2017, 07:36:42 AM
If at any single locus the results showed 3 alleles then there is a mixed sample of at least 2 people. If at any single locus the results showed 5 alleles then there is a mixed sample of at least 3 people.
So I'd expect in the results on the Renault to show at least one locus the results showed 5 alleles. Multiple occurrences of any single loci having 3 alleles does not mean there was more than two people in the mix.
Put it this way I'm still confused by the methods of assessing the results.
I'm thinking about that one.
Yes, 5 alleles at any single locus would show a a mixed sample of at least 3 people.
However, if Lowe had Kate and Gerry's profiles (I'm not certain whether he did or not), depending on how many identical alleles they had in common (e.g. we know that they both had at least TH 9.3 and if that value was one of the ones found in the mix), then a 4th allele would show the presence of at least one other person contributing to the mix.
If, say:
At the TH locus, Kate had a 6, 9.3 and Gerry had 7, 9.3, then an 8 would show a 3rd person (which couldn't belong to Madeleine either).
ETA: If ever Kate and Gerry had a common base pair, e.g. if both had 9.3, 9.3, then it would only take one extra allele value to show the presence of someone else.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 12, 2017, 07:57:30 AM
Professor Dan Kane says 75% of the time a 4 person mixtures present themselves as 3 person mixes https://youtu.be/daRBTopFA1A?list=UUjpWy3YdG24iySWTBS4jU2Q&t=1302
"Statistical weights of mixed DNA profiles"
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 12, 2017, 08:11:19 AM
Yes, 5 alleles at any single locus would show a a mixed sample of at least 3 people.
However, if Lowe had Kate and Gerry's profiles (I'm not certain whether he did or not), depending on how many identical alleles they had in common (e.g. we know that they both had at least TH 9.3 and if that value was one of the ones found in the mix), then a 4th allele would show the presence of at least one other person contributing to the mix.
If, say:
At the TH locus, Kate had a 6, 9.3 and Gerry had 7, 9.3, then an 8 would show a 3rd person (which couldn't belong to Madeleine either).
ETA: If ever Kate and Gerry had a common base pair, e.g. if both had 9.3, 9.3, then it would only take one extra allele value to show the presence of someone else.
I think you are correct here but the only thing is if we worked back through Gerry's, Kate's and Madeleine's profiles we could work out if we would ever get to 37 different alleles for the three person mixture. It would be an interesting exercise.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 12, 2017, 08:11:44 AM
Professor Dan Kane says 75% of the time a 4 person mixtures present themselves as 3 person mixes https://youtu.be/daRBTopFA1A?list=UUjpWy3YdG24iySWTBS4jU2Q&t=1302
"Statistical weights of mixed DNA profiles"
Yes, but what you'd said was: "Professor Dan Kane says it is impossible to see evidence of more than 3 persons in the mix. To have proof of 5 there would have to be 9 peaks showing at any one locus. That would be a first!"
I'm confused... that doesn't seem to be the same thing.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 12, 2017, 08:27:12 AM
Yes, but what you'd said was: "Professor Dan Kane says it is impossible to see evidence of more than 3 persons in the mix. To have proof of 5 there would have to be 9 peaks showing at any one locus. That would be a first!"
I'm confused... that doesn't seem to be the same thing.
Shall I go back and amend that, I think I misunderstood him on that point. Sorry.
Do you think a sample would ever have 9 or more alleles at a locus?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 12, 2017, 08:36:03 AM
I think you are correct here but the only thing is if we worked back through Gerry's, Kate's and Madeleine's profiles we could work out if we would ever get to 37 different alleles for the three person mixture. It would be an interesting exercise.
Yes, it would be interesting, but somewhat an intrusion of privacy. There are 3 other DNA profiles in the files (which is an intrusion into the privacy of at least one named person), but out of interest, I compared them with Madeleine's to see how many alleles these unrelated people had in common with hers. I can't remember offhand now, but I remember being surprised at how many there were.
I also compared random profiles I'd found on the Internet (perhaps 5 or 6), and in one of those I found some guy at the other end of the world who had 9 in common.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 12, 2017, 08:37:48 AM
Professor Dan Kane says it is impossible to see evidence of more than 3 persons in the mix. To have proof of 5 there would have to be 9 peaks showing at any one locus. That would be a first! "Statistical weights of mixed DNA profiles" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=daRBTopFA1A&index=5&list=UUjpWy3YdG24iySWTBS4jU2Q
I was mistaken.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 12, 2017, 08:46:06 AM
Shall I go back and amend that, I think I misunderstood him on that point. Sorry.
Do you think a sample would ever have 9 or more alleles at a locus?
I'd have to check, but from (vague) memory, I don't think the range of values at any one locus extends that far.
I think that there could be evidence of 5 contributors in certain cases, though, without needing 9 different allele values at a single locus. E.g., if the profiles of 4 family members were known (and they'd share far more alleles in common than unrelated people and therefore fewer distinct alleles showing) and up pops one or more alleles that are not in any of those profiles.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 12, 2017, 08:47:09 AM
I'd have to check, but from (vague) memory, I don't think the range of values at any one locus extends that far.
I think that there could be evidence of 5 contributors in certain cases, though, without needing 9 different allele values at a single locus. E.g., if the profiles of 4 family members were known (and they'd share far more alleles in common than unrelated people and therefore fewer distinct alleles showing) and up pops one or more alleles that are not in any of those profiles.
Interesting questions. What is the range of values at any one locus? 4 family members eg mum dad and two kids will have no more alleles than the Mum and Dad on their own.
Can you have a 3 person mix and only have 37 alleles looking at 10 loci and still have 15 out of 19 alleles matching Madeleine's profile? Maybe you could if you mixed 3 closely related members eg Kate, Gerry and Gerry's sister just as an example. So Madeleine is excluded. No that wouldn't work either as then there would be 19 out of 19 for Madeleine. Tricky! I'd like to look at father, father's sister and a sibling to Madeleine. Excluding Madeleine. Or Mother, Mother's mother and a female sibling to Madeleine. Excluding Madeleine.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 12, 2017, 04:26:37 PM
Imagine if the DNA result could simply be explained by a three person mixture of the Mother, the Mother's mother and a female sibling to Madeleine. Excluding Madeleine? That could be explained by a shopping trip with one of the twins in the Renault.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on January 12, 2017, 04:40:20 PM
Imagine if the DNA result could simply be explained by a three person mixture of the Mother, the Mother's mother and a female sibling to Madeleine. Excluding Madeleine? That could be explained by a shopping trip with one of the twins in the Renault.
the dna results have been simply explained
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 12, 2017, 04:43:05 PM
No they haven't or if you think they have tell us please?
This is the answer from the file: "A complex LCN DNA result which appeared to have originated from at least three people was obtained from cellular material recovered from the luggage compartment section 286C 2007 CRL10 (2) area 2. Within the DNA profile of Madeline McCann there are 20 DNA components represented by 19 peaks on a chart. At one of the areas of DNA we routinely examine Madeleine has inherited the same DNA component from both parents; this appears therefore as 1 peak rather than 2, hence 19 rather than 20. Of these 19 components 15 are present within the result from this item; there are 37 components in total. There are 37 components because there are at least 3 contributors; but there could be up to five contributors. In my opinion therefore this result is too complex for meaningful interpretation/inclusion."
That is not simple. Who are three people in the mix that could give that result?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on January 12, 2017, 05:32:14 PM
No they haven't or if you think they have tell us please?
This is the answer from the file: "A complex LCN DNA result which appeared to have originated from at least three people was obtained from cellular material recovered from the luggage compartment section 286C 2007 CRL10 (2) area 2. Within the DNA profile of Madeline McCann there are 20 DNA components represented by 19 peaks on a chart. At one of the areas of DNA we routinely examine Madeleine has inherited the same DNA component from both parents; this appears therefore as 1 peak rather than 2, hence 19 rather than 20. Of these 19 components 15 are present within the result from this item; there are 37 components in total. There are 37 components because there are at least 3 contributors; but there could be up to five contributors. In my opinion therefore this result is too complex for meaningful interpretation/inclusion."
That is not simple. Who are three people in the mix that could give that result?
Three previous occupants of the car It appears to me that the PJ asked the question Can this sample confirm the presence of Maddies DNA in the car The answer is a simple no
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 12, 2017, 05:59:04 PM
Imagine if the DNA result could simply be explained by a three person mixture of the Mother, the Mother's mother and a female sibling to Madeleine. Excluding Madeleine? That could be explained by a shopping trip with one of the twins in the Renault.
Why all female?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: jassi on January 12, 2017, 06:46:31 PM
Did the result exclude the possible presence of Madeleine?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on January 12, 2017, 06:52:42 PM
If there was a male plus Madeleine the sex allele would be x and y so in a mix that could be both male and female in the mix. If there were only females (like a spillage occurred on a shopping trip) the sex allele could just stay x. We are looking for ways to keep the total down to 37 which I think is hard in a 3 person mix unless there is close relationship and genetically close to Madeleine too to include the 15 out of her 19 alleles. In some cases a 3 person mix could end up with 60 alleles in total, 20 from each person.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 12, 2017, 08:19:28 PM
Did the result exclude the possible presence of Madeleine?
That is the question I have sent to Dan Krane. I have not heard back yet. But using his criteria: if alleles of the reference sample are missing from the evidence sample that reference person is excluded. On that basis that 4 of Madeleine's alleles are missing in the evidence sample I would predict Dan will say she is excluded or as you put it "exclude the possible presence of Madeleine". But I have been wrong before.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 12, 2017, 08:21:04 PM
Madeleine may have been in the car or she may not The DNA doesn't tell us anything But there is no evidence she was
That DNA result tells us a lot. Remember we only have been told some little bits about the result and one of the reference samples they are working with.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on January 12, 2017, 08:44:16 PM
That DNA result tells us a lot. Remember we only have been told some little bits about the result and one of the reference samples they are working with.
what does it tell us.....nothing of any use
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 12, 2017, 08:46:23 PM
If we had a child plus her mother plus her grandmother in the mix what is the maximum number of alleles that could be in the mix?
Daughter max = 20 Daughter mother mix max number = 30 Daughter plus her mother plus her grandmother = 45?? (max of 15 new ones) So with a bit of homozygosity and commonality it could easily drop down to 37 in an actual 3 person mix involving "Daughter plus her mother plus her grandmother".
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 12, 2017, 08:47:23 PM
If they had found a perfect match to Maddie What would that have told us It wouldn't even confirm she had been in the car
From the position the samples were collected it would be very hard to explain a perfect unmixed evidence sample that matched Madeleine. (i.e. just the 19 alleles) We would be thinking in terms of identical twins then.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: jassi on January 12, 2017, 09:13:31 PM
Indeed it would, but I think you are in danger of drifting towards fantasy.
On the other hand, there was a good Maddie and then there was a bad Maddie according to Kate's mother (I think)
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 12, 2017, 09:22:50 PM
Indeed it would, but I think you are in danger of drifting towards fantasy.
On the other hand, there was a good Maddie and then there was a bad Maddie according to Kate's mother (I think)
It is not impossible when we are dealing with IVF children and frozen embryos etc. There could greater chance of identical 19 allele matches in IVF children. Genetic probabilities are generally calculated using unrelated individuals.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 12, 2017, 09:25:28 PM
From the position the samples were collected it would be very hard to explain a perfect unmixed evidence sample that matched Madeleine. (i.e. just the 19 alleles) We would be thinking in terms of identical twins then.
no....dna transfer from clothes that belonged to maddie.....dont tell me you dont realise that just because maddies dna is in the car does not mean maddie was in the car
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 12, 2017, 10:51:07 PM
no....dna transfer from clothes that belonged to maddie.....dont tell me you dont realise that just because maddies dna is in the car does not mean maddie was in the car
I don't think you understand that any upper surface will have DNA of the 30 or so people who used the car, that will just be the background noise in which no particular DNA can be isolated. Now if you take a swab from under a mat that has hundreds of cells from just 1-3 persons that will be a different story.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on January 12, 2017, 10:55:00 PM
I don't think you understand that any upper surface will have DNA of the 30 or so people who used the car, that will just be the background noise in which no particular DNA can be isolated. Now if you take a swab from under a mat that will be a different story.
I understand a lot more than you think The presence of a perfect LCN DNA match does not prove Maddie was ever in that car
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 12, 2017, 10:58:25 PM
I understand a lot more than you think The presence of a perfect LCN DNA match does not prove Maddie was ever in that car
Use the words "under the boot mat" in your sentence then please?
You might be right but it is an indication which begs an explanation when the test sample came from underneath the boot mat.
Ultimately it is a jury trial in Portugal and even if there was an innocent reason for the DNA the jury may side with the prosecution. I get the feeling they would have charged Kate if there had been the 19 alleles similar to Madeleine's even in the mixed sample. We don't know what other circumstantial evidence they had to build a case.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: slartibartfast on January 13, 2017, 08:11:51 AM
its ignorance which kills discussion....you didnt even need to ask for a cite
Police have suspended the use of a controversial DNA technique following the Omagh bomb verdict. Earlier, the Crown Prosecution Service said it would review live prosecutions in England and Wales using Low Copy Number (LCN) DNA testing.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7156051.stm
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 13, 2017, 08:25:07 PM
its ignorance which kills discussion....you didnt even need to ask for a cite
Police have suspended the use of a controversial DNA technique following the Omagh bomb verdict. Earlier, the Crown Prosecution Service said it would review live prosecutions in England and Wales using Low Copy Number (LCN) DNA testing.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7156051.stm
And what was the outcome? Are they still suspended?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on January 13, 2017, 08:26:58 PM
And what was the outcome? Are they still suspended?
if i told you you wouldnt understand....but i will try LCN DNA relates to a small number of cells being found for analysis....this amount of material can be easily transferred. If I shake hands with someone on his way to australia and he opens his hotel door with the same hand then my dna might be found on the door hadle in OZ...even thugh i am 12000 miles awy and have never been to taht hotel
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 13, 2017, 08:28:00 PM
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: jassi on January 13, 2017, 08:28:16 PM
According to Wiki - In the United Kingdom use of the technique was suspended between 21 December 2007 and 14 January 2008 while the Crown Prosecution Service conducted a review into its use - this suspension has now been lifted. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Low_copy_number
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on January 13, 2017, 08:33:27 PM
If there was a male plus Madeleine the sex allele would be x and y so in a mix that could be both male and female in the mix. If there were only females (like a spillage occurred on a shopping trip) the sex allele could just stay x. We are looking for ways to keep the total down to 37 which I think is hard in a 3 person mix unless there is close relationship and genetically close to Madeleine too to include the 15 out of her 19 alleles. In some cases a 3 person mix could end up with 60 alleles in total, 20 from each person.
Hmmm. The amelo sex allele is considered separately from the other alleles, and isn't one of the ones counted as within the 10, 13 or 15 markers within which there are variations beyond establishing whether the sample belongs to a male/ female, as fare as I'm aware.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 13, 2017, 08:50:27 PM
If there was a male plus Madeleine the sex allele would be x and y so in a mix that could be both male and female in the mix. If there were only females (like a spillage occurred on a shopping trip) the sex allele could just stay x. We are looking for ways to keep the total down to 37 which I think is hard in a 3 person mix unless there is close relationship and genetically close to Madeleine too to include the 15 out of her 19 alleles. In some cases a 3 person mix could end up with 60 alleles in total, 20 from each person.
Forget the sex marker... that's in addition: it's not one of the 10 markers. It determines the sex of the potential suspect / victim. Male or female.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 13, 2017, 08:57:39 PM
From the position the samples were collected it would be very hard to explain a perfect unmixed evidence sample that matched Madeleine. (i.e. just the 19 alleles) We would be thinking in terms of identical twins then.
I don't follow for the moment... What do you mean?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 13, 2017, 09:00:21 PM
Hmmm. The amelo sex allele is considered separately from the other alleles, and isn't one of the ones counted as within the 10, 13 or 15 markers within which there are variations beyond establishing whether the sample belongs to a male/ female, as fare as I'm aware.
You are right but that one allele is an immediate in or out regardless how many of the others match IMO.
If the evidence sample is X Y and the reference sample is Y (Madeleine's) then it must be a male or a mix with a male to start with. I think if the suspect is a male but the DNA being tested is from a female there is not much point in considering the rest of the alleles. I might be wrong but it seems logical to me.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 13, 2017, 09:06:06 PM
Forget the sex marker... that's in addition: it's not one of the 10 markers. It determines the sex of the potential suspect / victim. Male or female.
I don't count the sex alleles either. I don't count them but consider them important when I look at the mix, either male and female or all female. With the pressure coming on Kate during the arguido interviews one would wonder if the DNA mix wasn't an all female affair.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 13, 2017, 09:12:41 PM
I don't follow for the moment... What do you mean?
It was the hypothetical pure sample from Madeleine. How would it get under the boot mat in the hire car? OK if they had a flat tire or wiped up a spill and lifted the mat then Cells could get underneath the mat. So it is possible for sure, but less likely than a mixed sample from the upper surface. Any dust in the car would have all sorts of DNA in it, but generally found on a surface not under a mat.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 13, 2017, 11:27:25 PM
Late edit: With the pressure coming on Kate during the arguido interviews one would wonder if the DNA mix wasn't an all female affair.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 14, 2017, 03:13:18 AM
It was the hypothetical pure sample from Madeleine. How would it get under the boot mat in the hire car? OK if they had a flat tire or wiped up a spill and lifted the mat then Cells could get underneath the mat. So it is possible for sure, but less likely than a mixed sample from the upper surface. Any dust in the car would have all sorts of DNA in it, but generally found on a surface not under a mat.
I don't know what you mean by "under the boot", nor what you source is from the files.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 14, 2017, 04:21:32 AM
I don't know what you mean by "under the boot", nor what you source is from the files.
Under the mat that covers the boot, as in "under the boot mat". Am I wrong about that impression too? Where did the swab get sourced from? I'll need to do some research on this.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/LEGAL_SUMMARY.htm 11 - It "marked" the right lower lateral part of the inside of the boot of vehicle 59-DA-27 (cf. page 2187 and/or annex 88);
and DNA "It should be stressed that the option towards that Laboratory was and remains obvious taking its prestige, its independence and its scientific reputation into account, although on an initial approach there seemed to be the possibility of compatibility between MADELEINE'S DNA profile and some of the collected residues (of which those that existed in the Renault Scenic vehicle that was rented by the McCann couple were in great quantity), taking the contents of the fax that is reproduced below exactly as it appears in the files, into account (pages 2620 and following)" "An incomplete DNA result was obtained from cellular material on the swab 3a. The swab contained very little information and showed low level indications of DNA from more than one person. However, all of the confirmed DNA components within this result match the corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeline McCann. LCN DNA profiling is highly sensitive, it is not possible to attribute this DNA profile to a particular body fluid.
There is no evidence to support the view that Madeline McCann contributed DNA to the swab 3B
A complex LCN DNA result which appeared to have originated from at least three people was obtained from cellular material recovered from the luggage compartment section 286C 2007 CRL10 (2) area 2. Within the DNA profile of Madeline McCann there are 20 DNA components represented by 19 peaks on a chart. At one of the areas of DNA we routinely examine Madeline has inherited the same DNA component from both parents; this appears therefore as 1 peak rather than 2, hence 19 rather than 20. Of these 19 components 15 are present within the result from this item; there are 37 components in total. There are 37 components because there are at least 3 contributors; but there could be up to five contributors. In my opinion therefore this result is too complex for meaningful interpretation/conclusion."
So I believe we are looking for the location that swabz 3A and 3B originated.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 14, 2017, 04:44:16 AM
3A comes from the lounge 3B ALSO comes from the lounge "3A. Stain on the floor collected using a dry swab. 3B. Stain on the floor collected using a swab, wet with distilled water." [My note: both from lounge]
THE ONE FROM THE BOOT HAD ANOTHER NUMBER "This laboratory report tells about the examinations made of two trace evidence recoveries, one behind the living room sofa in apartment 5A and the other in the boot area of the vehicle used by the McCann family, hired [by them] from the end of May this year. From document called Madeleine's DNA http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MADELEINES_DNA.htm
"In some of these recoveries (samples) DNA was found whose components are also found in the profile of Madeleine McCann.
With respect to the trace evidence recovered behind the sofa all the confirmed DNA components coincide with corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeleine McCann.
In the sample collected in the boot area of the vehicle, 15 of the identified DNA components coincide with the corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeleine McCann, this of [having] 19 components. "
So far only isolated it down to the "boot area of the vehicle".
From a report by John Lowe http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/JOHN_LOWE.htm
[My note: 3A comes from the lounge] An incomplete DNA result was obtained from cellular material on the swab (286A/2007 CRL 3a). The swab contained very little information and showed low level indications of DNA from more than one person. However, all of the confirmed DNA components within this result match the corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeleine McCann. LCN DNA profiling is highly sensitive; it is not possible attribute this DNA profile to a particular body fluid.
[My note: 3B ALSO comes from the lounge] A low level LCN DNA result was obtained from cellular material on the swab (286A/2007 CRL 3b). In my opinion there is no evidence to support the view that Madeleine McCann contributed DNA to this result.
[My note: THE ONE FROM THE BOOT HAD ANOTHER NUMBER] A complex LCN DNA result which appeared to have originated from at least three people was obtained from cellular material recovered from the luggage compartment section 286C 2007 CRL10 (2) area 2. In my opinion this result is too complex for meaningful interpretation.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 14, 2017, 05:14:13 AM
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/JOHN_LOWE.htm
"An incomplete DNA result was obtained through LCN from cellular material present in the swab (286A/2007 CRL 3A). The low-level DNA result showed very meagre information indicating more than one person. Departing from the principle that all confirmed DNA components within the scope of this result originated from a single source, then these pointed to corresponding components in the profile of Madeleine McCann; however, if the DNA within the scope of this result originated from more than one person then the result could be explained as being DNA originating from [a mixture of DNA from both] Kate Healy and Gerald McCann, for example. DNA profiles established through LCN are extremely sensitive; it is not possible to attribute this DNA profile to a particular body fluid. nor to determine how or when that DNA was transferred to that area. " [My note: We'd better look at this too.]
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 14, 2017, 05:15:17 AM
3A comes from the lounge 3B from the boot area. "This laboratory report tells about the examinations made of two trace evidence recoveries, one behind the living room sofa in apartment 5A and the other in the boot area of the vehicle used by the McCann family, hired [by them] from the end of May this year. From document called Madeleine's DNA http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MADELEINES_DNA.htm
"In some of these recoveries (samples) DNA was found whose components are also found in the profile of Madeleine McCann.
With respect to the trace evidence recovered behind the sofa all the confirmed DNA components coincide with corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeleine McCann.
In the sample collected in the boot area of the vehicle, 15 of the identified DNA components coincide with the corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeleine McCann, this of [having] 19 components. "
Rob, I think that you may have got a bit confused. Swabs 3A and 3B were both taken from the floor behind the sofa in 5A at the same spot. The difference is that one was a dry swab and the other was soaked in water.
"3A - Stain on the floor recovered with a Dry swab; 3B - Stain on the floor recovered with swab with distilled water"
"An incomplete DNA result was obtained through LCN from cellular material present in the swab (286A/2007 CRL 3A). The low-level DNA result showed very meagre information indicating more than one person. Departing from the principle that all confirmed DNA components within the scope of this result originated from a single source, then these pointed to corresponding components in the profile of Madeleine McCann; however, if the DNA within the scope of this result originated from more than one person then the result could be explained as being DNA originating from [a mixture of DNA from both] Kate Healy and Gerald McCann, for example. DNA profiles established through LCN are extremely sensitive; it is not possible to attribute this DNA profile to a particular body fluid. nor to determine how or when that DNA was transferred to that area. " [My note: We'd better look at this too.]
Read the report again, Rob. Swabs 3A and 3B refer to the flat. Nothing to do with the boot of the car.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 14, 2017, 05:21:36 AM
3A comes from the lounge 3B ALSO comes from the lounge "3A. Stain on the floor collected using a dry swab. 3B. Stain on the floor collected using a swab, wet with distilled water." [My note: both from lounge]
THE ONE FROM THE BOOT HAD ANOTHER NUMBER "This laboratory report tells about the examinations made of two trace evidence recoveries, one behind the living room sofa in apartment 5A and the other in the boot area of the vehicle used by the McCann family, hired [by them] from the end of May this year. From document called Madeleine's DNA http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/MADELEINES_DNA.htm
"In some of these recoveries (samples) DNA was found whose components are also found in the profile of Madeleine McCann.
With respect to the trace evidence recovered behind the sofa all the confirmed DNA components coincide with corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeleine McCann.
In the sample collected in the boot area of the vehicle, 15 of the identified DNA components coincide with the corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeleine McCann, this of [having] 19 components. "
So far only isolated it down to the "boot area of the vehicle".
From a report by John Lowe http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/JOHN_LOWE.htm
[My note: 3A comes from the lounge] An incomplete DNA result was obtained from cellular material on the swab (286A/2007 CRL 3a). The swab contained very little information and showed low level indications of DNA from more than one person. However, all of the confirmed DNA components within this result match the corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeleine McCann. LCN DNA profiling is highly sensitive; it is not possible attribute this DNA profile to a particular body fluid.
[My note: 3B ALSO comes from the lounge] A low level LCN DNA result was obtained from cellular material on the swab (286A/2007 CRL 3b). In my opinion there is no evidence to support the view that Madeleine McCann contributed DNA to this result.
[My note: THE ONE FROM THE BOOT HAD ANOTHER NUMBER] A complex LCN DNA result which appeared to have originated from at least three people was obtained from cellular material recovered from the luggage compartment section 286C 2007 CRL10 (2) area 2. In my opinion this result is too complex for meaningful interpretation.
Re my underlined bits: Hallelujah! Yes, that is what I've been trying to say: they had nothing to do with the boot.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 14, 2017, 05:23:06 AM
Rob, I think that you may have got a bit confused. Swabs 3A and 3B were both taken from the floor behind the sofa in 5A at the same spot. The difference is that one was a dry swab and the other was soaked in water.
"3A - Stain on the floor recovered with a Dry swab; 3B - Stain on the floor recovered with swab with distilled water"
Do you know the swab number of the boot samples then?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 14, 2017, 05:25:35 AM
Here is an interesting piece of information http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/JOHN_LOWE.htm
"The probability of matching depends upon the level of kinship [parental similarity] existing between the suspect and another individual. True identical twins have the same profile. But, due to the random manner in which DNA from the two progenitors combine to form the descendant, the probability of two siblings presenting a match in all ten STR regions is, approximately, one in ten thousand (1 in 10,000). The more distant the relationship becomes between two persons, the more reduced becomes the probability of matching in all ten STR regions."
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 14, 2017, 05:35:55 AM
And for something out of the box - a semen sample! http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/JOHN_LOWE.htm
"The voluntary samples were also compared with 'crime stain 1', a DNA profile obtained by Portuguese scientists using their DNA profile system. The profile was recovered from suspected semen on a blanket in the apartment 5.
From the available records, I conclude that 281 voluntary samples were eliminated as contributors of DNA to the list of search profiles above, since its profile does not match the profile sought; consequently, the DNA can not have originated from them.
I conclude further that, the DNA profiles obtained from the 'crime stain 1' and 286A/2007/CRL9A & B coincide with Charlie Gordon (bar code 51156964). I believe that Charlie Gordon was born on 29 January 2005, and if this is the case, in my opinion, the DNA profile obtained in 'crime stain 1' is not the result of semen found on the blanket."
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 14, 2017, 05:39:06 AM
You are right but that one allele is an immediate in or out regardless how many of the others match IMO.
If the evidence sample is X Y and the reference sample is Y (Madeleine's) then it must be a male or a mix with a male to start with. I think if the suspect is a male but the DNA being tested is from a female there is not much point in considering the rest of the alleles. I might be wrong but it seems logical to me.
But the purpose of the boot analysis was to see if there was proof that M's body had been transported in the boot. There wasn't.
The LCN analyis found 15 alleles compatible with hers, but within a soup of a total of 37 alleles composed of at least 3 contributors and perhaps up to 5.
From that, there is no way of establishing whether she (or her remains) had ever been there.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 14, 2017, 05:44:35 AM
But the purpose of the boot analysis was to see if there was proof that M's body had been transported in the boot. There wasn't.
The LCN analyis found 15 alleles compatible with hers, but within a soup of a total of 37 alleles composed of at least 3 contributors and perhaps up to 5.
From that, there is no way of establishing whether she (or her remains) had ever been there.
But I'm waiting for Dan Krane to reply. He said, by extension of what he said on another case, if all 19 components aren't there Madeleine wasn't there for sure. I'm taking the view she is excluded because all her alleles are not in the mix.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 14, 2017, 06:43:56 AM
I don't know what you mean by "under the boot", nor what you source is from the files.
I found it. It is on a video that sounds like it is a *crimewatch extract*. I've heard the commentators voice before (someone might recognize him). https://youtu.be/RP30PRieuU4?t=43 then just the next 8 seconds.
* (May have been the Al jazeera documentary on Madeleine.) https://youtu.be/j6JV6sP9UC4?t=13
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: sadie on January 14, 2017, 09:34:46 AM
I found it. It is on a video that sounds like it is a *crimewatch extract*. I've heard the commentators voice before (someone might recognize him). https://youtu.be/RP30PRieuU4?t=43 then just the next 8 seconds.
* (May have been the Al jazeera documentary on Madeleine.) https://youtu.be/j6JV6sP9UC4?t=13
BOTH VIDEOS are HIDEHO videos.
Because of their inaccuracies (nice way of putting it), all Hideho videos were BANNED from this forum in the early days, about 4 years ago.
Mods .... Surely we are not down to showing the dregs of the Hideho propaganda?
Where Eleanor when you want her ? She will remember.
And Ferryman, were you around in those days, can you remember the ruling ?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 14, 2017, 09:44:03 AM
Because of their inaccuracies (nice way of putting it), all Hideho videos were BANNED from this forum in the early days, about 4 years ago.
Mods .... Surely we are not down to showing the dregs of the Hideho propaganda?
Where Eleanor when you want her ? She will remember.
And Ferryman, were you around in those days, can you remember the ruling ?
HiDeHo would not have produced the Al Jazeera video. I don't think she'd have the money to do that. It is just saved on her channel. I watched the Al Jazeera video and it wasn't from there. False alarm! And she would be unable to influence Crimewatch either.
Where is Eleanor?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 14, 2017, 05:17:28 PM
HiDeHo would not have produced the Al Jazeera video. I don't think she'd have the money to do that. It is just saved on her channel. I watched the Al Jazeera video and it wasn't from there. False alarm! And she would be unable to influence Crimewatch either.
Where is Eleanor?
No, of course Hideho didn't produce it. She just uploaded it to the Internet. For once, it doesn't appear to have been one of her propaganda compilations. But the one mentioning DNA clearly is one of her compilations. And most of it is clearly false.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 14, 2017, 06:17:53 PM
No, of course Hideho didn't produce it. She just uploaded it to the Internet. For once, it doesn't appear to have been one of her propaganda compilations.
She's banned me from her Facebook group. So HDH and I don't think alike. So I wouldn't promote her propaganda.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 14, 2017, 06:26:30 PM
Carana did you hear him say the sample was taken from the underside of the boot cover? My point is the top will have a DNA mixture for sure, as many people had been in that car, but the underneath surface would have required a fluid to draw the cells through the fabric. So in the fluid would be the cells, maybe mixed but tending toward the "victim" for a better word. But that turns out not to be Madeleine's DNA profile for it was short of her profile by 4 alleles.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 14, 2017, 09:40:30 PM
Carana did you hear him say the sample was taken from the underside of the boot cover? My point is the top will have a DNA mixture for sure, as many people had been in that car, but the underneath surface would have required a fluid to draw the cells through the fabric. So in the fluid would be the cells, maybe mixed but tending toward the "victim" for a better word. But that turns out not to be Madeleine's DNA profile for it was short of her profile by 4 alleles.
Yes, Rob.
The beginning of that sentence is "it is understood that..."
There have been a zillion articles stating that "it has been understood that" ; or "a source has said..."
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 14, 2017, 09:44:09 PM
The beginning of that sentence is "it is understood that..."
There have been a zillion articles stating that "it has been understood that" ; or "a source has said..."
And that is the source of my understanding too, for it makes sense to take a sample from the least contaminated place. A sample from the top of the boot mat will mean nothing. It will be a very mixed sample. So there could be some truth in that the sample was taken from underneath the mat.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 14, 2017, 09:45:51 PM
Here you go, Rob.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 14, 2017, 09:48:56 PM
Carana did you hear him say the sample was taken from the underside of the boot cover? My point is the top will have a DNA mixture for sure, as many people had been in that car, but the underneath surface would have required a fluid to draw the cells through the fabric. So in the fluid would be the cells, maybe mixed but tending toward the "victim" for a better word. But that turns out not to be Madeleine's DNA profile for it was short of her profile by 4 alleles.
I see that wicked witch of the west said the missing 4 alleles were degraded. It is amazing how good her nose is to sniff that out.!
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 21, 2017, 09:32:39 PM
How many swabs were taken from the boot area?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 22, 2017, 07:15:10 PM
As far as I'm aware, from reading the forensic reports, the areas of the boot to which Keela had responded were sent to the FSS in their entirety.
I have no idea what process was in place at the FSS to deal with large objects.
Thanks. Why I was asking was that Keela alerted to an area in the boot but no blood was isolated as such. Yet Grime states she is 100% accurate in finding human blood. I got the impression there was the blood and the fluid from an unidentified source (so I suppose that could have been blood but not recognised by the lab) if the whole object was sent to the lab.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 25, 2017, 09:37:50 AM
Thanks. Why I was asking was that Keela alerted to an area in the boot but no blood was isolated as such. Yet Grime states she is 100% accurate in finding human blood. I got the impression there was the blood and the fluid from an unidentified source (so I suppose that could have been blood but not recognised by the lab) if the whole object was sent to the lab.
There is no way of corroborating whether Keela alerted correctly or not. She may well have done, but the fact is that there was so little material to analyse that the FSS had to resort to LCN. A whiff of blood could date as far back as the car's manufacture.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: ferryman on January 25, 2017, 03:03:20 PM
Thanks. Why I was asking was that Keela alerted to an area in the boot but no blood was isolated as such. Yet Grime states she is 100% accurate in finding human blood. I got the impression there was the blood and the fluid from an unidentified source (so I suppose that could have been blood but not recognised by the lab) if the whole object was sent to the lab.
Rob, the word blood is absent from the whole of John Lowe's report.
Grime claims Keela could detect blood in traces so minute, they wouldn't trace it in a laboratory.
How would Grime know?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: ShiningInLuz on January 25, 2017, 04:11:05 PM
The answer would be to test this. As to whether Mr Grime performed such a check ...
As Davel says in the post below (which I've already read) a laboratory couldn't test for it, because the trace would be too minute to be amenable to detection by laboratory testing techniques.
That is the level (Grime claims) Keela could detect.
How would Grime know.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: jassi on January 25, 2017, 04:28:37 PM
It could be done by diluting a blood sample to a level at which it cannot be detected by the laboratory and then seeing a if a dog can consistently distinguish between this sample and a sample containing no blood.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on January 25, 2017, 04:39:59 PM
It could be done by diluting a blood sample to a level at which it cannot be detected by the laboratory and then seeing a if a dog can consistently distinguish between this sample and a sample containing no blood.
wouldnt work
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: jassi on January 25, 2017, 04:41:48 PM
However much is needed. If, for the sake of argument, the laboratory can detect blood at a level of 5 parts per million, ( or whatever unit you might prefer), the task would be to see if a dog gave a positive response at level below thatm compared with known zero level.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 25, 2017, 05:24:02 PM
However much is needed. If, for the sake of argument, the laboratory can detect blood at a level of 5 parts per million, ( or whatever unit you might prefer), the task would be to see if a dog gave a positive response at level below thatm compared with known zero level.
I doubt very much the dog can detect such tiny amounts of blood in an aqueous solution......based on how the dog detects a scent
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: jassi on January 25, 2017, 05:44:17 PM
That, of course, is merely your dogmatic opinion. The discussion was how one could test the claim, not what the actual detection level might be.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: ShiningInLuz on January 25, 2017, 05:45:02 PM
That, of course, is merely your dogmatic opinion. The discussion was how one could test the claim, not what the actual detection level might be.
based on an understanding of the principles of scent detection......judging by the responses i do seem to have a much better understanding than other posters. Have a think about how dogs detect scent and you might start to understand
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on January 25, 2017, 05:53:05 PM
Keela only alerted to dried blood. How would an aqueous solution work?
Perhaps your knowledge is better than mine. But isn't there a video somewhere in which Grime makes a tiny pin-prick on his finger, stuffs a piece of bl**dy rag into a wall, and Keela alerts to it?
Roughly speaking, I am asking if the blood needs to be dried for Keela to alert.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: jassi on January 25, 2017, 05:59:19 PM
So you could put a certain volume on a filter paper ( for example, or a cuddlecat) and allow it to dry. I'm sure the forensic scientists conducting the tests would select the appropriate conditions for the test.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: ShiningInLuz on January 25, 2017, 06:01:09 PM
A Madeleine-sized-body in a reservoir? You are joking, I hope.
compared to a few molesules of blood we are referring too a body the size of maddie would be giving off tons and tons of scent....you need to undestand how scent is detected
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on January 25, 2017, 06:11:27 PM
So you could put a certain volume on a filter paper ( for example, or a cuddlecat) and allow it to dry. I'm sure the forensic scientists conducting the tests would select the appropriate conditions for the test.
if the solution was so diliute it would be uncertain if you had any blood cells in your sample
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: jassi on January 25, 2017, 06:22:11 PM
if the solution was so diliute it would be uncertain if you had any blood cells in your sample
That's certainly a possibility, the figure I gave for detection was merely an example. Human blood contains about 5 billion red cells per millilitre, so there would likely be enough in the dilution.
I have no idea what level of blood a laboratory can detect. It might be a much higher concentration than that.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: jassi on January 25, 2017, 06:50:47 PM
So the reason they deploy dogs over reservoirs is ....... what?
The smell of decomposition being released from human remains somewhere in the depths. They are very accomplished at doing so ... if the body is there acting as a source of the scent. The problem arises when VRDs are tasked to indicate? where remains may have been ... not where they are.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on January 25, 2017, 08:27:40 PM
and if there is no laboratory test then there is no reliable evidence...an unfortunate TRUTH for the sceptics
The value of the dog is the rapidity of the result. Otherwise how many tests would you need to do to check a room? Then you have to wait to get the result. Dog - instant result.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 25, 2017, 10:31:07 PM
The smell of decomposition being released from human remains somewhere in the depths. They are very accomplished at doing so ... if the body is there acting as a source of the scent. The problem arises when VRDs are tasked to indicate? where remains may have been ... not where they are.
That's where I have a problem. They're often invaluable in finding a body or whatever else specialised dogs are trained for, when they lead to physical evidence, but "anecdotal evidence" of where a body / scent may have once been seems somewhat more iffy. There have been a few studies or cases in which dogs turned out to be correct, but there are so many unknown factors, particularly in non double-blind instances, that it just doesn't seem that reliable to me.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on January 25, 2017, 10:31:46 PM
The value of the dog is the rapidity of the result. Otherwise how many tests would you need to do to check a room? Then you have to wait to get the result. Dog - instant result.
an instant unreliable result......therefore a worthless result
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: slartibartfast on January 25, 2017, 11:53:32 PM
Even easier would be to put a drop of blood on one item and not on another. Clean both items until no forensic information can be recovered then perform multiple tests with dogs, collate the results and check for significant results.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on January 26, 2017, 02:56:41 AM
Even easier would be to put a drop of blood on one item and not on another. Clean both items until no forensic information can be recovered then perform multiple tests with dogs, collate the results and check for significant results.
You have to have a trained dog first. The training is an enormous task and it requires daily training exercises to keep the dogs focused. The test is simple but getting the dog is the problem.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on January 26, 2017, 08:10:44 AM
Even easier would be to put a drop of blood on one item and not on another. Clean both items until no forensic information can be recovered then perform multiple tests with dogs, collate the results and check for significant results.
How would you know you have cleaned it it until no forensic information could be recovered
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: slartibartfast on January 26, 2017, 08:26:59 AM
Grime has made this claim and it appears he has no evidence to support it
By definition.
Then again, all the evidence is AGAINST the "enhanced" victim recovery dog.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on January 26, 2017, 09:37:17 AM
It is not unusual for someone trying to promote their business to make exaggerated claims
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Brietta on February 03, 2017, 01:36:20 AM
DNA expert in McCann case offer Wednesday, 12 September 2007
The inventor of DNA fingerprinting has offered to act as an expert witness in the Madeleine McCann case. Sir Alec Jeffreys said DNA matches alone did not establish guilt and all Madeleine's genetic characters would be found in at least one family member.
Gerry and Kate McCann, suspects in their daughter's disappearance, are considering commissioning independent tests on a Portuguese hire car.
But the Madeleine's Fund board will not allow money to go on legal expenses.
It has been reported that DNA evidence with a 100% match to Madeleine was found in the car, but this has been played down by Portuguese police.
In an exclusive interview with the BBC's Newsnight programme, Sir Alec said there could be a potential problem in assigning a profile to Madeleine given that all other members of her family would have been in the car.
"DNA testing seeks to establish whether DNA sample A from a crime scene, came or did not come from individual B," he said.
"So if you get a match there's very strong evidence that it did come from B.
"It is then up to investigators, the courts and all the rest of it to work out whether that connection is relevant or not.
"DNA doesn't have the words innocence or guilt in it - that is a legal concept. What it seeks to establish is connections and identifications." http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6992372.stm
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on February 03, 2017, 04:33:15 PM
significant "In an exclusive interview with the BBC's Newsnight programme, Sir Alec said there could be a potential problem in assigning a profile to Madeleine given that all other members of her family would have been in the car." To make matters worse only 15 out of the 19 markers were found.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Brietta on February 03, 2017, 05:56:31 PM
significant "In an exclusive interview with the BBC's Newsnight programme, Sir Alec said there could be a potential problem in assigning a profile to Madeleine given that all other members of her family would have been in the car." To make matters worse only 15 out of the 19 markers were found.
Of significance also is the fact that such an eminent scientist was prepared to testify on the behalf of Madeleine's parents of his own volition.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: slartibartfast on February 03, 2017, 06:04:09 PM
Of significance also is the fact that such an eminent scientist was prepared to testify on the behalf of Madeleine's parents of his own volition.
If there ever was going to be a trial.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on April 20, 2017, 09:51:54 AM
Is this true?
"In the first report, 15 alleles* out of 19 that made up Madeleine’s DNA appeared, he said.
Then, in a second report, all the alleles had “disappeared completely”." https://www.algarvedailynews.com/cases/madeleine-mccann/8605-amaral-s-libel-win-opens-pandora-s-box-on-national-television
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: ferryman on April 20, 2017, 10:14:51 AM
"In the first report, 15 alleles* out of 19 that made up Madeleine’s DNA appeared, he said.
Then, in a second report, all the alleles had “disappeared completely”." https://www.algarvedailynews.com/cases/madeleine-mccann/8605-amaral-s-libel-win-opens-pandora-s-box-on-national-television
No, it isn't.
What Amaral erroneously refers to as the 'preliminary report' is this: an email from John Lowe to Stuart Prior explaining one result from the report:
Quote
Stuart
Firstly, here are the last three results you are expecting
.....
There is no evidence to support the view that Madeline MCCann contributed DNA to the swab 3B.
A complex LCN DNA result which appeared to have originated from at least three people was obtained from cellular material recovered from the luggage compartment section 286C 2007 CRL10 (2) area 2. Within the DNA profile of Madeline McCann there are 20 DNA components represented by 19 peaks on a chart. At one of the areas of DNA we routinely examine Madeleine has inherited the same DNA component from both parents; this appears therefore as 1 peak rather than 2, hence 19 rather than 20. Of these 19 components 15 are present within the result from this item; there are 37 components in total. There are 37 components because there are at least 3 contributors; but there could be up to five contributors. In my opinion therefore this result is too complex for meaningful interpretation/inclusion.
Why - ...
Well lets look at the question that is being asked
"Is there DNA from Madeline on the swab "
It would be very simple to say "yes" simply because of the number of components within the result that are also in her reference sample.
What we need to consider, as scientists, is whether the match is genuine and legitimate; because Madeline has deposited DNA as a result of being in the car or whether Madeline merely appears to match the result by chance. The individual components in Madeline's profile are not unique to her, it is the specific combination of 19 components that makes her profile unique above all others. Elements of Madeline's profile are also present within the the profiles of many of the scientists here in Birmingham, myself included. it's important to stress that 50% of Madeline's profile will be shared with each parent. It is not possible in a mixture of more than two people, to determine or evaluate which specific DNA components pair with each other. Namely, we cannot separate the components out into 3 individual DNA profiles.
Therefore, we cannot answer the question: is the match genuine or is it a chance match.
The same applies to any result that is quoted as being too complex for meaningful inclusion/interpretation
What questions will we never be able to answer with LCN DNA profiling -
When was the DNA deposited - How was the DNA deposited - What body fluid(s) does the DIVA originate from - Was a crime committed -
These, along with all other results, will be formalised in a final report
Please don't hesitate to contact me if you require any further assistance
kind regards John
John Lowe Forensic Scientist Major Incidents Team Priory House Inter Facility: 703 6973 External: 0121 607 6973 Fax: 0121 6221807
Please consider the environment before printing this e-mail
Forensic Science Service Ltd Registered office and headquarters: Trident Court 2920 Solihull Parkway, Birmingham Business Park, Birmingham B37 7YN United Kingdom. Registered in England and Wales: number 5607780
The Forensic Science Service (r) is a trading name of Forensic Science
In a mix containing DNA from between 3 and 5 contributors (John Lowe couldn't determine the exact number) 19 components of 37 in total matched components from the DNA of Madeleine.
Bearing in mind that, among the 3 to 5 contributors is likely to have been Madeleine's twin siblings and her parents, all with a high number of alike markers and very similar profiles to Madeleine, John Lowe found the report inconclusive, meaning that the dna result -- alone -- shed no light on the question of whether Madeleine was transported somewhere dead in the car or whether she wasn't: state of knowledge after the forensic analysis the same as before.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: stephen25000 on April 20, 2017, 10:36:51 AM
What Amaral erroneously refers to as the 'preliminary report' is this: an email from John Lowe to Stuart Prior explaining one result from the report:
In a mix containing DNA from between 3 and 5 contributors (John Lowe couldn't determine the exact number) 19 components of 37 in total matched components from the DNA of Madeleine.
Bearing in mind that, among the 3 to 5 contributors is likely to have been Madeleine's twin siblings and her parents, all with a high number of alike markers and very similar profiles to Madeleine, John Lowe found the report inconclusive, meaning that the dna result -- alone -- shed no light on the question of whether Madeleine was transported somewhere dead in the car or whether she wasn't: state of knowledge after the forensic analysis the same as before.
Did the report negate it ?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on April 20, 2017, 10:39:33 AM
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on October 10, 2017, 04:08:31 AM
Does anyone have more information on the bag found near Faro airport? The description of the bag and its contents are found here http://www.gerrymccannsblogs.co.uk/press/7nov7/NOTW_03_11_07.htm "Maddie DNA clue in airport bag" "A source said: "The bag could be crucial. The DNA isn't an exact match to Maddie's, but it does link."
Does anyone know the extent of the linkage?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on October 10, 2017, 06:24:59 AM
Does anyone have more information on the bag found near Faro airport? The description of the bag and its contents are found here http://www.gerrymccannsblogs.co.uk/press/7nov7/NOTW_03_11_07.htm "Maddie DNA clue in airport bag" "A source said: "The bag could be crucial. The DNA isn't an exact match to Maddie's, but it does link."
Does anyone know the extent of the linkage?
I don't recall any DNA tests in the files on the bag.
The "source" may well have been in a voice in the reporter's head 2 minutes before the copy deadline.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on October 10, 2017, 07:52:11 AM
Had you heard of the bag being found before now? It seems to have some validity as it was covered in more than one newspaper.
A bag is mentioned here.
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/SUNDRYS.htm
The tabloids got all excited about it at the time, some with heavy hints that it could be a) Gerry's alleged tennis bag or b) the PJ were closing in on them.
If it is the one in the files, the tabloids generally forgot to mention that it was a throwaway plastic shopping one...
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on October 10, 2017, 11:37:00 AM
The tabloids got all excited about it at the time, some with heavy hints that it could be a) Gerry's alleged tennis bag or b) the PJ were closing in on them.
If it is the one in the files, the tabloids generally forgot to mention that it was a throwaway plastic shopping one...
Is it this item? "To: The Coordinator of the Criminal Investigation
From: Inspector Nunes
Subject: Delivery of clothing by the Lagos GNR Brigade (disappearance of Madeleine McCann.
I bring to your knowledge that today at about 10.00 this police station received Soldier Pedro Silva from Lagos GNR who delivered a plastic bag with the logo "Alisuper" containing clothing.
The clothing was found in Colinas Verdres-Bensafrim, Lagos on 15-06-2007 by Mrs Nancy Burridge a resident of Praia da Luz (tel no.**********).
The bag was not opened, in order to conserve its contents, as Soldier Silva told us that it also contained hairs.
I bring this to your attention
Signed
Inspector Nunes"
I wonder if that is the same Pedro Silva who is disliked on the facebook groups?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on October 10, 2017, 07:43:32 PM
Is it this item? "To: The Coordinator of the Criminal Investigation
From: Inspector Nunes
Subject: Delivery of clothing by the Lagos GNR Brigade (disappearance of Madeleine McCann.
I bring to your knowledge that today at about 10.00 this police station received Soldier Pedro Silva from Lagos GNR who delivered a plastic bag with the logo "Alisuper" containing clothing.
The clothing was found in Colinas Verdres-Bensafrim, Lagos on 15-06-2007 by Mrs Nancy Burridge a resident of Praia da Luz (tel no.**********).
The bag was not opened, in order to conserve its contents, as Soldier Silva told us that it also contained hairs.
I bring this to your attention
Signed
Inspector Nunes"
I wonder if that is the same Pedro Silva who is disliked on the facebook groups?
That's the only bag that I've found that might be the one blasted all over the media.
Re the officer: I think you'll find that name is quite common in PT.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on October 10, 2017, 09:23:34 PM
That's the only bag that I've found that might be the one blasted all over the media.
Re the officer: I think you'll find that name is quite common in PT.
There is a Pedro Silva who is a "friend of the McCanns" I suppose whoever found this bag has taken an interest in the case from then on. I must ask him if it was he who found the bag. https://www.facebook.com/pedro.silva.5836?lst=1139662390%3A100004667449072%3A1507668046
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: G-Unit on October 12, 2017, 01:52:35 PM
There is a Pedro Silva who is a "friend of the McCanns" I suppose whoever found this bag has taken an interest in the case from then on. I must ask him if it was he who found the bag. https://www.facebook.com/pedro.silva.5836?lst=1139662390%3A100004667449072%3A1507668046
He is a friend of Kate McCann's mum and, seemingly, of Heriberto Janosch Gonzalez. They are both friends with Pamela Gurney and Heri is friends with Cass Sidebottom. No mistaking their agenda, it seems.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Eleanor on October 12, 2017, 02:07:35 PM
We will stop any further speculation about Pedro Silva, and anyone else he might appear to be "Friends" with.
Heriberto Janosch is a member of this forum and I will not have Libellous Innuendo about him either.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Erngath on October 12, 2017, 03:51:40 PM
As is the norm on this forum. Please provide cites for your claims. How do you know they are all friends?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on October 12, 2017, 10:05:10 PM
A statement has been made that the named people are friends. Surely some proof of this should be given. If there is no proof then the post should be deleted?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on October 12, 2017, 10:16:13 PM
A statement has been made that the named people are friends. Surely some proof of this should be given. If there is no proof then the post should be deleted?
I have proof but I'm not posting it here.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: G-Unit on October 12, 2017, 10:32:48 PM
A statement has been made that the named people are friends. Surely some proof of this should be given. If there is no proof then the post should be deleted?
Anyone with a Facebook account can look at other people's friend list unless they hide it.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: misty on October 12, 2017, 10:35:18 PM
Who is on turning out the lights duty? But there's nothing so lonesome, so morbid or drear Than to stand in a bar, of a pub with no beer …[/i]
So wrote Gordon Parsons and sang Slim Dusty. A forum without posters runs it a close second, chaps
I'm here! Speaking of DNA I watched a real-life investigation last night. It was text-book perfect, although they did have a very good idea who their prime suspect was. A murderer was jailed for life because he had a spot of his ex-girlfriend's blood on his bracelet and a spot on his car's steering wheel. He also had her phone which moved in the same direction as his car after her death. CCTV showed his car arriving in her street and leaving 30 minutes later. What I noticed was that the DNA test results were returned very quickly.
I'm here! Speaking of DNA I watched a real-life investigation last night. It was text-book perfect, although they did have a very good idea who their prime suspect was. A murderer was jailed for life because he had a spot of his ex-girlfriend's blood on his bracelet and a spot on his car's steering wheel. He also had her phone which moved in the same direction as his car after her death. CCTV showed his car arriving in her street and leaving 30 minutes later. What I noticed was that the DNA test results were returned very quickly.
I watched that as well,the DNA result from the blood arrived just in time to have him charged before he was to be released,a suspect can be held up 96 hrs hours with out charge if the suspected crime is serious ie: murder.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Eleanor on October 13, 2017, 06:35:38 PM
I watched that as well,the DNA result from the blood arrived just in time to have him charged before he was to be released,a suspect can be held up 96 hrs hours with out charge if the suspected crime is serious ie: murder.
It was interesting but quite a straightforward case.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Alice Purjorick on October 13, 2017, 09:23:46 PM
Not to forget James Mitchell, Billy Mitchell and Blue Mitchell [he played in Horace Tavares Silvers band as mentioned and whooshed recently!]. I don't see Joni liking it hereabouts all things considered..... &%+((£
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on October 14, 2017, 04:11:11 AM
When some more DNA is found there will be more to discuss, but in the meantime we just have to be patient.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: G-Unit on October 14, 2017, 06:36:30 AM
When some more DNA is found there will be more to discuss, but in the meantime we just have to be patient.
It's a bit late for that I think. Unless that hairbrush held by Krugel for ten years finds it's way to the authorities. The hairbrush given to the authorities in 2007 had no hair in it.
No hair was recovered from the pillow-case SJM/1 nor the hairbrush SJM/36. http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/A_L_PALMER.htm
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on October 14, 2017, 07:29:04 AM
It's a bit late for that I think. Unless that hairbrush held by Krugel for ten years finds it's way to the authorities. The hairbrush given to the authorities in 2007 had no hair in it.
No hair was recovered from the pillow-case SJM/1 nor the hairbrush SJM/36. http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/A_L_PALMER.htm
A body or a person is what I was thinking of.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: barrier on October 14, 2017, 08:19:20 AM
It's a bit late for that I think. Unless that hairbrush held by Krugel for ten years finds it's way to the authorities. The hairbrush given to the authorities in 2007 had no hair in it.
No hair was recovered from the pillow-case SJM/1 nor the hairbrush SJM/36. http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/A_L_PALMER.htm
True, but have you ever discovered what happened to the hairs that somehow disappeared without a trace, somewhere between her bed and the PT forensic lab (INML)?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: G-Unit on October 14, 2017, 10:56:41 AM
True, but have you ever discovered what happened to the hairs that somehow disappeared without a trace, somewhere between her bed and the PT forensic lab (INML)?
various hairs from the top of the bed where the missing child was sleeping, they being placed inside a paper envelope in accordance with instructions issued by the Biology Section of the LPC and referenced as trace evidence #3; http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/5A_FORENSIC_4_5_7.htm
4 hair in envelope no. 3 recovered from the top of the bed from which the child disappeared. Envelope No. 3 - "recovered from the top of the bed from which the child disappeared" 2 hairs with root; 2 hairs only stem. http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/PORTUGUESE-FORENSIC.htm
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on October 14, 2017, 11:08:16 AM
various hairs from the top of the bed where the missing child was sleeping, they being placed inside a paper envelope in accordance with instructions issued by the Biology Section of the LPC and referenced as trace evidence #3; http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/5A_FORENSIC_4_5_7.htm
4 hair in envelope no. 3 recovered from the top of the bed from which the child disappeared. Envelope No. 3 - "recovered from the top of the bed from which the child disappeared" 2 hairs with root; 2 hairs only stem. http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/PORTUGUESE-FORENSIC.htm
A possible explanation is that they simply marked the bed with "no 3" and then moved around to place no. 4 elsewhere, but ended up only bagging the hairs on the top (i.e., the 4 that eventually arrived). Maybe they meant to differentiate between the location of the bed hairs ("no 3"), by splitting them into e.g, 3.1 and 3.2 but something screwed up.
Some of the ones near the pillow could, of course, be Madeleine's or those belonging to her family... but not necessarily all of them.
I have no idea, either, whether any of the other hairs in the flat (bar one of Gerry's, from memory) were ever identified as belonging to a specific individual. There has been noise about studies trying to extract nDNA from hair with little or no root, but I don't know how far that's got. Identifying a haplotype (mtDNA) means little in this context. About the only thing it can establish, in this context (AFAIK), is that Murat didn't leave one, because none of the identified haplotypes of hair found corresponded to his.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: kizzy on October 14, 2017, 10:34:36 PM
G.A. regretted, sending the DNA to a UK Lab
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on October 14, 2017, 11:15:12 PM
But what sort of tests were done on these samples? Was it DNA testing on the hair?
There are threads on this, Rob.
At least on the hairs that the PT lab actually received, they tried to do nDNA tests where possible. Otherwise, they did mtNDA tests whcih established haplotypes.
Establishing a haplotype is no doubt useful if a suspect is, e.g., Icelandic in a remote village in the Kalahari.
Otherwise, its usefulness is to exclude potential suspects.
It couldn't identitfy any specific individual.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on October 15, 2017, 02:23:02 AM
At least on the hairs that the PT lab actually received, they tried to do nDNA tests where possible. Otherwise, they did mtNDA tests whcih established haplotypes.
Establishing a haplotype is no doubt useful if a suspect is, e.g., Icelandic in a remote village in the Kalahari.
Otherwise, its usefulness is to exclude potential suspects.
It couldn't identitfy any specific individual.
Thanks for that I'll look them up later.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on October 15, 2017, 10:25:40 AM
At least on the hairs that the PT lab actually received, they tried to do nDNA tests where possible. Otherwise, they did mtNDA tests whcih established haplotypes.
Establishing a haplotype is no doubt useful if a suspect is, e.g., Icelandic in a remote village in the Kalahari.
Otherwise, its usefulness is to exclude potential suspects.
It couldn't identitfy any specific individual.
I recall it now thanks http://miscarriageofjustice.co/index.php?topic=7824.msg369027#msg369027
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on December 06, 2017, 02:06:20 AM
The result of sample 3A was "However, all of the confirmed DNA components within this result match the corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeline McCann. LCN DNA profiling is highly sensitive it is not possible to attribute this DNA profile to a particular body fluid."
Does anyone know how many components were confirmed?
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/JOHN_LOWE.htm
The full result is "An incomplete DNA result was obtained from cellular material on the swab 3a. The swab contained very little information and showed low level indications of DNA from more than one person. However, all of the confirmed DNA components within this result match the corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeline McCann. LCN DNA profiling is highly sensitive it is not possible to attribute this DNA profile to a particular body fluid."
but on this other site I get a different report "The Forensic Science Service® / Lowe report" http://themaddiecasefiles.com/the-forensic-science-service-lowe-report-t10.html
Which although say much the same has different wording.
"286A/2007-CRL 3A& B Swabs collected from the floor of the apartment An incomplete and weak DNA result comprising only some unconfirmed DNA components was obtained from the cellular material present in the dry swab (3A). The attempt to obtain a result from any cellular material that may have been in the same area and present in the wet swab (3B) was unfruitful, given that no profile was obtained. These samples were submitted for LCN tests.
An incomplete DNA result was obtained through LCN from cellular material present in the swab (286A/2007 CRL 3A). The low-level DNA result showed very meagre information indicating more than one person. Departing from the principle that all confirmed DNA components within the scope of this result originated from a single source, then these pointed to corresponding components in the profile of Madeleine McCann; however, if the DNA within the scope of this result originated from more than one person then the result could be explained as being DNA originating from [a mixture of DNA from both] Kate Healy and Gerald McCann, for example. DNA profiles established through LCN are extremely sensitive; it is not possible to attribute this DNA profile to a particular body fluid. nor to determine how or when that DNA was transferred to that area."
I wonder where that report is in the alphabetical listing? [I found it within the the Lowe report.]
"286A/2007-CRL 3A& B Swabs collected from the floor of the apartment An incomplete and weak DNA result comprising only some unconfirmed DNA components was obtained from the cellular material present in the dry swab (3A). The attempt to obtain a result from any cellular material that may have been in the same area and present in the wet swab (3B) was unfruitful, given that no profile was obtained. These samples were submitted for LCN tests.
An incomplete DNA result was obtained through LCN from cellular material present in the swab (286A/2007 CRL 3A). The low-level DNA result showed very meagre information indicating more than one person. Departing from the principle that all confirmed DNA components within the scope of this result originated from a single source, then these pointed to corresponding components in the profile of Madeleine McCann; however, if the DNA within the scope of this result originated from more than one person then the result could be explained as being DNA originating from [a mixture of DNA from both] Kate Healy and Gerald McCann, for example. DNA profiles established through LCN are extremely sensitive; it is not possible to attribute this DNA profile to a particular body fluid. nor to determine how or when that DNA was transferred to that area."
These two appear to be word for word the same.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on December 06, 2017, 10:13:05 AM
The first appears to be from the email. The longer version from the report.
Re the confirmed alleles on swab 3A: no, I've never found anything in the files. However, in a TV interview GA mentioned 5 in a sample found in the flat (and I don't see any other sample he could have been referring to). And 5 means nothing - you and I would share that many, possibly more.
GA: There is a recent report and there are two other reports. The first one mentions 15 alleles and here is the main question, it places the focus, they place the focus on that part of the exam from the vehicle, in the second [report] they then focus on the apartment, if on one side 15 alleles were not enough, in the other there were only 5 alleles that matched Madeleine McCann's genetic profile, what could be read there was that there were almost no problems. Because it's easily justifiable. It may not be justifiable with the cadaver odour on the spot where the blood sample was collected, but therefore, inside the house it is easy to justify, it's more difficult with a car that was rented more than twenty days later. So this is where the major confusion lies. https://joana-morais.blogspot.co.uk/2008/09/little-girl-died-in-that-apartment.html
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Brietta on December 06, 2017, 11:04:11 AM
The first appears to be from the email. The longer version from the report.
Re the confirmed alleles on swab 3A: no, I've never found anything in the files. However, in a TV interview GA mentioned 5 in a sample found in the flat (and I don't see any other sample he could have been referring to). And 5 means nothing - you and I would share that many, possibly more.
GA: There is a recent report and there are two other reports. The first one mentions 15 alleles and here is the main question, it places the focus, they place the focus on that part of the exam from the vehicle, in the second [report] they then focus on the apartment, if on one side 15 alleles were not enough, in the other there were only 5 alleles that matched Madeleine McCann's genetic profile, what could be read there was that there were almost no problems. Because it's easily justifiable. It may not be justifiable with the cadaver odour on the spot where the blood sample was collected, but therefore, inside the house it is easy to justify, it's more difficult with a car that was rented more than twenty days later. So this is where the major confusion lies. https://joana-morais.blogspot.co.uk/2008/09/little-girl-died-in-that-apartment.html
The only confusion regarding the DNA samples was Amaral's ... no-one else misinterpreted them in the way that he did.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Brietta on December 06, 2017, 11:58:04 AM
If Madeleine's DNA was the keystone on which Amaral built his case against Madeleine McCann's parents ... in my opinion, it merely illustrates exactly how badly flawed that case was in the rush to prejudice opinion against them by making them suspects in her disappearance.
What a pity to resort to opinion while disregarding through ignorance the actual significance of the DNA evidence and the expert advice to hand.
Quote Page last updated at 17:55 GMT, Thursday, 7 August 2008 18:55 UK
There is also a fierce war of interpretation, with different media outlets assuming opposing positions.
For example, one Portuguese tabloid, which still harbours suspicions surrounding Kate and Gerry McCann, has focused on the "possible compatibility" (a phrase from the final police report) of Madeleine's DNA with samples taken from the couple's hire car.
By contrast, UK newspapers have highlighted the more cautious tone taken by Britain's Forensic Science Service, which warned that the results were "too complex for meaningful interpretation." http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7548108.stm
Quote
DNA expert in McCann case offer Last Updated: Wednesday, 12 September 2007, 23:48 GMT 00:48 UK
The inventor of DNA fingerprinting has offered to act as an expert witness in the Madeleine McCann case. Sir Alec Jeffreys said DNA matches alone did not establish guilt and all Madeleine's genetic characters would be found in at least one family member. *****
It has been reported that DNA evidence with a 100% match to Madeleine was found in the car, but this has been played down by Portuguese police.
In an exclusive interview with the BBC's Newsnight programme, Sir Alec said there could be a potential problem in assigning a profile to Madeleine given that all other members of her family would have been in the car.
"DNA testing seeks to establish whether DNA sample A from a crime scene, came or did not come from individual B," he said.
"So if you get a match there's very strong evidence that it did come from B.
"It is then up to investigators, the courts and all the rest of it to work out whether that connection is relevant or not.
"DNA doesn't have the words innocence or guilt in it - that is a legal concept. What it seeks to establish is connections and identifications." http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/6992372.stm
So even without the benefit of having sight of the actual results, Sir Alec Jeffreys was aware that wrongful assumptions were being applied. I really would have loved to be a fly on the wall when the files were released giving chapter and verse to the ineptitude which sullied the McCann name and distracted attention from the search for a living child because of the distraction of the belief that she was dead ... without as much as a shred of supporting evidence.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on December 06, 2017, 01:43:48 PM
He was supplied information from the forensic services.
Has Amaral claimed to be an expert in forensics ?
The other comments you make about 'sheer arrogance and incomptence' amount to no more than your biased opinion.
Stephen, I disagree on that point. If he didn't understand the forensics, perhaps he shouldn't have been spouting "we experts" - type comments. The insuation was that he was certain that the body was definitely in the car, and that therefore the only explanation was that it had been frozen and had thawed.
In GA's own "documentary", the head of the PT forensic lab agreed with the FSS analysis, but it just got glossed over as if he wasn't even interviewed.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: stephen25000 on December 06, 2017, 03:16:37 PM
Stephen, I disagree on that point. If he didn't understand the forensics, perhaps he shouldn't have been spouting "we experts" - type comments. The insuation was that he was certain that the body was definitely in the car, and that therefore the only explanation was that it had been frozen and had thawed.
In GA's own "documentary", the head of the PT forensic lab agreed with the FSS analysis, but it just got glossed over as if he wasn't even interviewed.
What has happened, cannot be changed, and that applies to all those involved in this case.
Mistakes have been made, and by not just one person.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on December 06, 2017, 03:20:59 PM
What has happened, cannot be changed, and that applies to all those involved in this case.
Mistakes have been made, and by not just one person.
I haven't said the contrary, Stephen.
Everyone seems to have made mistakes in this case.
But not everyone directly involved in the case and in positions of authority (i.e. with a supposed credibility factor) has gone around claiming that they were experts on the DNA analysis.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: stephen25000 on December 06, 2017, 03:40:40 PM
Everyone seems to have made mistakes in this case.
But not everyone directly involved in the case and in positions of authority (i.e. with a supposed credibility factor) has gone around claiming that they were experts on the DNA analysis.
Agreed, many mistakes were made.
However, this is not going to change what happened, and I still cannot see any prospect of this case being solved.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on December 06, 2017, 03:48:27 PM
However, this is not going to change what happened, and I still cannot see any prospect of this case being solved.
Ok, I agree on the first point, although I do still have hope that the case will eventually come to a conclusion, although perhaps way after the case has gone back into cold mode, possibly by sheer coincidence at some stage.
What I disagree with is a) GA giving the impression that he knew what he was talking about, when he clearly didn't (IMO) and b) that people in certain quarters consider him to be a demi-god and that any utterance must therefore be necessarily accurate and beyond question.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: stephen25000 on December 06, 2017, 03:53:32 PM
Ok, I agree on the first point, although I do still have hope that the case will eventually come to a conclusion, although perhaps way after the case has gone back into cold mode, possibly by sheer coincidence at some stage.
What I disagree with a) GA giving the impression that he knew what he was talking about, when he clearly didn't and b) that people in certain quarters consider him to be a demi-god and that any utterance must thereofore be necessarily accurate and beyond question.
I have said mistakes were made in the original investigation before, just as I believe mistakes are being made in the current one.
However, in the end we are just giving our opinions.
Time will tell as regards any resolution.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on December 06, 2017, 04:03:37 PM
I have said mistakes were made in the original investigation before, just as I believe mistakes are being made in the current one.
However, in the end we are just giving our opinions.
Time will tell as regards any resolution.
Agreed.
If they ever find the missing hairs, there might possibly be some information to examine, or if they've managed to conduct any nDNA analysis on the others, which wasn't possible at the time.
Or, it could be, sadly, that someone stumbles upon something suspicious while walking a dog, or someone ends up checking the database in the event of a new suspicious disappearance or attack (or even an old one).
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: John on December 06, 2017, 04:35:54 PM
The only confusion regarding the DNA samples was Amaral's ... no-one else misinterpreted them in the way that he did.
For that to be true one has to know exactly what he was led to believe by the now defunct Forensic Science Service in the UK. Amaral states that he was given information initially which was later changed, we have no way of knowing if that is accurate or false.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Brietta on December 06, 2017, 04:42:04 PM
He was supplied information from the forensic services.
Has Amaral claimed to be an expert in forensics ?
The other comments you make about 'sheer arrogance and incomptence' amount to no more than your biased opinion.
He was supplied with information from the experts which he was told proved nothing ... yet making the McCanns official suspects was the response. Nothing at all to do with my opinion biased or otherwise ... quite simply stating the facts.
Quote British scientists warned DNA tests on a sample from Kate and Gerry McCanns' hire car were inconclusive just days before they were made suspects, police files have revealed.
Forensic experts described how it was impossible to conclude whether swabbed bodily fluid taken from the vehicle's boot came from the couple's missing daughter Madeleine.
Despite the results from the Forensic Science Service (FSS), Portuguese detectives went on to name the McCanns "arguidos", or formal suspects in the case just four days later.
Significantly, officials even chose to cite DNA evidence as grounds for their suspicions. https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2008/aug/04/madeleinemccann.portugal
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Brietta on December 06, 2017, 04:49:37 PM
For that to be true one has to know exactly what he was led to believe by the now defunct Forensic Science Service in the UK. Amaral states that he was given information initially which was later changed, we have no way of knowing if that is accurate or false.
I believe Lowe's explanatory email to him is in the files, John. That he chose to disregard or if he failed to understand the results must be down to him; and if he did fail to understand there were Portuguese experts available to him that he could have consulted.
As far as the defunct FSS is concerned ... apparently the successor to it isn't exactly covering itself in glory at the moment.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on December 06, 2017, 04:54:04 PM
For that to be true one has to know exactly what he was led to believe by the now defunct Forensic Science Service in the UK. Amaral states that he was given information initially which was later changed, we have no way of knowing if that is accurate or false.
If you read what he said he based his reasoning on exactly what is stated by the FSS in the files...he totally misunderstood it but acted as if he was an expert...added to this he claimed teh alerts proved a cadaver in 5a...
from his book......
From then on, we are sure that, at a given moment, there was a body in apartment 5A.
absolute rubbish from the man leading the investigation
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on December 06, 2017, 05:07:33 PM
The first appears to be from the email. The longer version from the report.
Re the confirmed alleles on swab 3A: no, I've never found anything in the files. However, in a TV interview GA mentioned 5 in a sample found in the flat (and I don't see any other sample he could have been referring to). And 5 means nothing - you and I would share that many, possibly more.
GA: There is a recent report and there are two other reports. The first one mentions 15 alleles and here is the main question, it places the focus, they place the focus on that part of the exam from the vehicle, in the second [report] they then focus on the apartment, if on one side 15 alleles were not enough, in the other there were only 5 alleles that matched Madeleine McCann's genetic profile, what could be read there was that there were almost no problems. Because it's easily justifiable. It may not be justifiable with the cadaver odour on the spot where the blood sample was collected, but therefore, inside the house it is easy to justify, it's more difficult with a car that was rented more than twenty days later. So this is where the major confusion lies. https://joana-morais.blogspot.co.uk/2008/09/little-girl-died-in-that-apartment.html
that really doesnt make any sense
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Lace on December 06, 2017, 05:24:10 PM
For that to be true one has to know exactly what he was led to believe by the now defunct Forensic Science Service in the UK. Amaral states that he was given information initially which was later changed, we have no way of knowing if that is accurate or false.
I think Amaral jumped in too soon with the DNA results and before he knew it, it had been leaked to newspapers, I remember reading 100% DNA of Madeleine found, when really there was no such thing. He also can't get his around the fact that others share Madeleine's DNA and the forensic scientist said, many would share parts of the DNA with Madeleine. He stubbornly stuck to the facts as he knew them, that it was Madeleine's DNA and the dogs alerted to cadaver odour.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on December 06, 2017, 05:32:07 PM
The first appears to be from the email. The longer version from the report.
Re the confirmed alleles on swab 3A: no, I've never found anything in the files. However, in a TV interview GA mentioned 5 in a sample found in the flat (and I don't see any other sample he could have been referring to). And 5 means nothing - you and I would share that many, possibly more.
GA: There is a recent report and there are two other reports. The first one mentions 15 alleles and here is the main question, it places the focus, they place the focus on that part of the exam from the vehicle, in the second [report] they then focus on the apartment, if on one side 15 alleles were not enough, in the other there were only 5 alleles that matched Madeleine McCann's genetic profile, what could be read there was that there were almost no problems. Because it's easily justifiable. It may not be justifiable with the cadaver odour on the spot where the blood sample was collected, but therefore, inside the house it is easy to justify, it's more difficult with a car that was rented more than twenty days later. So this is where the major confusion lies. https://joana-morais.blogspot.co.uk/2008/09/little-girl-died-in-that-apartment.html
Thank you once again Carana. That link is rather a massive resource too.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on December 06, 2017, 06:04:25 PM
My understanding is that it would have done from his perspective (IMO) as he seemed convinced that the FSS was deliberately attaching more importance to a mere 5 alleles on a sample in the flat to deflect attention from the greater number in the car due to some mega conspiracy theory in which the FSS was complicit.
Or something.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on December 06, 2017, 06:52:28 PM
My understanding is that it would have done from his perspective (IMO) as he seemed convinced that the FSS was deliberately attaching more importance to a mere 5 alleles on a sample in the flat to deflect attention from the greater number in the car due to some mega conspiracy theory in which the FSS was complicit.
Or something.
Yes...Amarals mega conspiracy theory involving MI5 and the cover up of the McCanns... I dont really see how anyone can take him seriously
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: barrier on December 06, 2017, 08:45:48 PM
I think Amaral jumped in too soon with the DNA results and before he knew it, it had been leaked to newspapers, I remember reading 100% DNA of Madeleine found, when really there was no such thing. He also can't get his around the fact that others share Madeleine's DNA and the forensic scientist said, many would share parts of the DNA with Madeleine. He stubbornly stuck to the facts as he knew them, that it was Madeleine's DNA and the dogs alerted to cadaver odour.
What else would dogs trained in a certain discipline be expected to alert to?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: barrier on December 06, 2017, 08:47:45 PM
: I think it’s unique in two or three respects. First of all the way its captured attention in different countries is quite unusual. You’ll get a very high-profile case in a particular country, the way it has captured interest across countries, I think is significant. The length of it. And it’s unusual to have a case like this where you’re doing a missing persons investigation, where ten years on, we still don’t have definitive evidence about exactly what’s happened. And that’s why we’re open minded, even if we have to be pessimistic about the prospects, we are open minded because we don’t have definitive evidence about what happened to Madeleine
He further adds.
Quote
As I said earlier on we have no definitive evidence as to whether Maddie is alive or dead. We have to keep an open mind that is why we describe it as a missing person enquiry. Of course we understand why after so many years people would be pessimistic but we are keeping an open mind and treating it as a missing person enquiry.
No definitive evidence either way,meaning as you amongst others have pointed out the dogs alerts need corroborating,also it must be added an alleged abduction needs the same,no where is there any dissing of the Portuguse including Amaral.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on December 06, 2017, 09:38:48 PM
No definitive evidence either way,meaning as you amongst others have pointed out the dogs alerts need corroborating,also it must be added an alleged abduction needs the same,no where is there any dissing of the Portuguse including Amaral.
So the alerts do not confirm death in the apartment
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: barrier on December 06, 2017, 09:43:23 PM
So the alerts do not confirm death in the apartment
The only confirmation would be a body imo,the only confirmation of an abduction would be the same imo,catch 22,Rowley states they are pessimistic about the outcome.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on December 06, 2017, 11:13:28 PM
For that to be true one has to know exactly what he was led to believe by the now defunct Forensic Science Service in the UK. Amaral states that he was given information initially which was later changed, we have no way of knowing if that is accurate or false.
Yes, the email from Lowe (the one that explained the basics of mummy and daddy genetic inheritance) stated that the car result had shown 15 alleles compatible with hers, but the number didn't appear in the official report.
I presume he found that suspicious for some reason.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on December 06, 2017, 11:16:26 PM
So the alerts do not confirm death in the apartment
They are alerts to cadaver contamination in all probabilty for that is what Eddie is trained to find. But what is reason for the cadaver odour contamination is anyone's guess.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on December 07, 2017, 07:45:57 AM
They are alerts to cadaver contamination in all probabilty for that is what Eddie is trained to find. But what is reason for the cadaver odour contamination is anyone's guess.
you are making inferences from the alerts when according to Harrison no inference can be drawn
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: pathfinder73 on December 07, 2017, 09:11:58 AM
ETA: To be fair, I'm not sure he personally ever mentioned satellite images, or whether it was from one of his fan blogs.
Pedro Mourinho (P.M.) - SIC Notícias Anchor (Portuguese 24/7 News Channel)
Gonçalo Amaral (G.A.) - the former Judiciary Police inspector, coordinator of the Madeleine McCann investigation until October, 2007
Transcript
Pedro Mourinho (P.M.) - Gonçalo Amaral, former inspector of the Judiciary Police, and author of the book "The Truth of the Lie" on the Maddie Case is with us, live, on the Midnight News. A very good evening to you Dr. Gonçalo Amaral.
Gonçalo Amaral (G.A.) - Good evening.
P.M. - Is there any novelty for you in the documents now released by Wikileaks?
G.A. - No, in reality the only news is the document disclosure itself, since as for the evidence, the indicia, they are on the process. The cooperation and collaboration with the English police is public knowledge, and is on the process. The results are there, therefore there isn't anything new.
P.M. - So, for you it isn't news that it was the British police that found the evidence that have, would have incriminated Madeleine's parents?
G.A. - No, I didn't say that. It's not news as regarding to the evidence, now as to the proofs held by the British police I don't know what are they referencing to. There was a cooperation and collaboration, the evidence and indicia are in the process thus...I don't know, someone should say what the evidence are, perhaps someone from the British police should say it. All the same, it was a cooperation between the British and Portuguese police that has arrived to the proofs that are in the process.
P.M. - As someone that knows the process, as an inspector involved in the investigation, coordinator of the investigation, don't you know what evidence, specifically, the British ambassador was referring to?
G.A. - He could only be referring to the evidence and indicia that are on the process. I'm not seeing any other, if there is other evidence, it would be strange for the British police to not have revealed them at the time.
P.M. - The reference made in the last hours, Dr. Gonçalo Amaral, was in particular the evidence that had been obtained by the dogs brought from the UK, that were able to find cadaver scent in the McCann's car, could that be the evidence?
G.A. - There are several indications. The information that are on the process results in other evidence, and, therefore there is a set of evidences that are on the process, and that is probably what is being referred to. It is unfortunate that the process is archived, but, perhaps this note might enable to reopen the inquest and the resumption of the investigation until the truth is established, the material truth, the complete truth, for Justice to be made.
P.M. - How was the relationship between the British and Portuguese police forces? Was it a good relationship, or, as the British media sustained for a certain period of time, during the summer of 2007, was it a tense one and of great rivalry?
G.A. - No, it was an excellent relation, of cooperation, we often had lunch and dinner together, we had various meetings, so there was already friendship between colleagues. It was people who were involved in an investigation, there wasn't any tension as it was stated.
P.M. - Would it have been possible to go further, in gathering evidence, after what took place in September 2007, or not?
G.A. - As I said before, the investigation is an investigation that is interrupted, an investigation that needs to be concluded. I believe that it is possible to make progress, if it wasn't for lack of political will; now with political will, based on this note - which is only a note as you said, but remains an important note nevertheless between two ambassadors, from one ambassador to the US State Department, that must have the weight that it has. Hopefully now, it will also be disclosed those photos, those satellite images that we believe to be in the possession of the US authorities, that we, the Portuguese police mentioned first, and also requested, a request that was denied to us.
P.M. - In your understanding, what could those satellite images reveal?
G.A. - They can reveal who was the person that carried the child on that night on its way to the beach. According to an Irish couple statement, with an alleged 80% certainty, it was Gerald McCann himself. That could be the confirmation of that Irish couple's statement.
P.M. - And those images exist?
G.A. - We believe that, yes. In fact, the McCann couple themselves, said, a few months ago, that they also searched for them; that they don't exist, someone else later stated that they don't exist. It's possible that the site who has divulged the cable might also be able to release those images. That would be interesting.
P.M. - In your opinion, if they exist, why weren't they yet revealed?
G.A. - Well, probably because they are a secret of state somewhere... In fact, the whole investigation was a state secret in England. I remind you that there is documentation in that sense, referring that it is a state secret. We do not understand why it is considered as a state secret. In question is the disappearance, and the likely death of a child, and we still fail to understand why is that considered as state secrecy.
P.M. - You have spoken before on the «political will», do you consider that there was a connivance of the British government with the McCann couple, knowing that the London authorities, and at least we now have that certainty, were indeed aware of the evidence uncovered by the police of their own country. What I want to ask you, in your opinion, in the scope of this document, is, if we can understand a little bit better the manner in which the McCanns left the country?
G.A. - I apologize for stating the obvious, but they have left the country by airplane. And they were well received back in England. What we became increasingly aware was the political influence, of the intervention of the British prime minister at the time, Gordon Brown, of the conversations that he allegedly had we our own prime minister, in October, at the Lisbon Summit - if they indeed spoke on the subject or not, we weren't there to listen, some say they did others say they didn't; but a fact remains, and this was the result: there was a point that the British police officers working on the case had to sign a document as if they belonged to the secret services, requesting their confidentiality so they wouldn't speak about the case. Definitely something strange, not usual under other circumstances. Thus, from then on, and with other elements, that would be too lengthy for us to be here now detailing - remains no doubt that a political intervention, practically, archived the case.
P.M. - Of the British and of the Portuguese government?
G.A. - The case went to the Portuguese General Attorney's Office, who published a statement saying that they had not find any indicia in the process...something that we find very strange. I recall that on the decision made by the Appellate Court, on October 19, of this year, which lifted the banning of the book that I've authored, 'Maddie, The Truth of The Lie', suggests that with the indicia that exists in the process, the opinion of the Public Ministry to archive the case could be another if the prosecutors were different - that means that something exists there [on the process]. I have no doubts that the magistrates, the appellate judges have read the process.
P.M. - Do you believe that this document, this note now revealed by WikiLeaks, can indeed change something as to the process? You have already said during this interview that you hoped for that to happen, but do you truly believe that that it will take place?
G.A. - This matter has evolved, step by step, we cannot use this document as a flag, the knowledge of this note as a victory - let's put it in this way, it does not mean an immediate reopening of the case. However, I do believe that we are walking towards that goal, that finally the reconstitution of the facts may take place with the couple and with their friends, if they so wish, and if they are willing to return to Portugal.
P.M. - You spoke of «victory», do you believe that this will change the perception that people have about the Maddie case?
G.A. - The perception that I have, as far as the perception of people go, is that the Judiciary Police has worked, the Judiciary Police was able to reach some conclusions, important conclusions. That the process needs to go on, the investigation has to continue, and, as we have previously spoken here today, the process was archived for political reasons - that is the perception that people have.
you are making inferences from the alerts when according to Harrison no inference can be drawn
I think Rob’s post accurately represents the police view on the alerts. IMO they accepted the alerts but as Rob said they couldn’t tie them to a person or body location.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on December 07, 2017, 10:12:28 AM
I think Rob’s post accurately represents the police view on the alerts. IMO they accepted the alerts but as Rob said they couldn’t tie them to a person or body location.
I think you are wrong Grime was asked the direct question.....did the alert give a positive indication of cadaver odour....he failed to answer it On that basis I don't see how anyone can justifiably claim what you do
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on December 07, 2017, 10:13:26 AM
I think you are wrong Grime was asked the direct question.....did the alert give a positive indication of cadaver odour....he failed to answer it On that basis I don't see how anyone can justifiably claim what you do
His words in the report: "It is my view that it is possible that the EVRD is alerting to cadaver scent contamination." I think this is similar to what I said too. "They are alerts to cadaver contamination in all probability for that is what Eddie is trained to find. But what is reason for the cadaver odour contamination is anyone's guess."
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on December 07, 2017, 11:03:54 AM
Pedro Mourinho (P.M.) - SIC Notícias Anchor (Portuguese 24/7 News Channel)
Gonçalo Amaral (G.A.) - the former Judiciary Police inspector, coordinator of the Madeleine McCann investigation until October, 2007
Transcript
Pedro Mourinho (P.M.) - Gonçalo Amaral, former inspector of the Judiciary Police, and author of the book "The Truth of the Lie" on the Maddie Case is with us, live, on the Midnight News. A very good evening to you Dr. Gonçalo Amaral.
Gonçalo Amaral (G.A.) - Good evening.
P.M. - Is there any novelty for you in the documents now released by Wikileaks?
G.A. - No, in reality the only news is the document disclosure itself, since as for the evidence, the indicia, they are on the process. The cooperation and collaboration with the English police is public knowledge, and is on the process. The results are there, therefore there isn't anything new.
P.M. - So, for you it isn't news that it was the British police that found the evidence that have, would have incriminated Madeleine's parents?
G.A. - No, I didn't say that. It's not news as regarding to the evidence, now as to the proofs held by the British police I don't know what are they referencing to. There was a cooperation and collaboration, the evidence and indicia are in the process thus...I don't know, someone should say what the evidence are, perhaps someone from the British police should say it. All the same, it was a cooperation between the British and Portuguese police that has arrived to the proofs that are in the process.
P.M. - As someone that knows the process, as an inspector involved in the investigation, coordinator of the investigation, don't you know what evidence, specifically, the British ambassador was referring to?
G.A. - He could only be referring to the evidence and indicia that are on the process. I'm not seeing any other, if there is other evidence, it would be strange for the British police to not have revealed them at the time.
P.M. - The reference made in the last hours, Dr. Gonçalo Amaral, was in particular the evidence that had been obtained by the dogs brought from the UK, that were able to find cadaver scent in the McCann's car, could that be the evidence?
G.A. - There are several indications. The information that are on the process results in other evidence, and, therefore there is a set of evidences that are on the process, and that is probably what is being referred to. It is unfortunate that the process is archived, but, perhaps this note might enable to reopen the inquest and the resumption of the investigation until the truth is established, the material truth, the complete truth, for Justice to be made.
P.M. - How was the relationship between the British and Portuguese police forces? Was it a good relationship, or, as the British media sustained for a certain period of time, during the summer of 2007, was it a tense one and of great rivalry?
G.A. - No, it was an excellent relation, of cooperation, we often had lunch and dinner together, we had various meetings, so there was already friendship between colleagues. It was people who were involved in an investigation, there wasn't any tension as it was stated.
P.M. - Would it have been possible to go further, in gathering evidence, after what took place in September 2007, or not?
G.A. - As I said before, the investigation is an investigation that is interrupted, an investigation that needs to be concluded. I believe that it is possible to make progress, if it wasn't for lack of political will; now with political will, based on this note - which is only a note as you said, but remains an important note nevertheless between two ambassadors, from one ambassador to the US State Department, that must have the weight that it has. Hopefully now, it will also be disclosed those photos, those satellite images that we believe to be in the possession of the US authorities, that we, the Portuguese police mentioned first, and also requested, a request that was denied to us.
P.M. - In your understanding, what could those satellite images reveal?
G.A. - They can reveal who was the person that carried the child on that night on its way to the beach. According to an Irish couple statement, with an alleged 80% certainty, it was Gerald McCann himself. That could be the confirmation of that Irish couple's statement.
P.M. - And those images exist?
G.A. - We believe that, yes. In fact, the McCann couple themselves, said, a few months ago, that they also searched for them; that they don't exist, someone else later stated that they don't exist. It's possible that the site who has divulged the cable might also be able to release those images. That would be interesting.
P.M. - In your opinion, if they exist, why weren't they yet revealed?
G.A. - Well, probably because they are a secret of state somewhere... In fact, the whole investigation was a state secret in England. I remind you that there is documentation in that sense, referring that it is a state secret. We do not understand why it is considered as a state secret. In question is the disappearance, and the likely death of a child, and we still fail to understand why is that considered as state secrecy.
P.M. - You have spoken before on the «political will», do you consider that there was a connivance of the British government with the McCann couple, knowing that the London authorities, and at least we now have that certainty, were indeed aware of the evidence uncovered by the police of their own country. What I want to ask you, in your opinion, in the scope of this document, is, if we can understand a little bit better the manner in which the McCanns left the country?
G.A. - I apologize for stating the obvious, but they have left the country by airplane. And they were well received back in England. What we became increasingly aware was the political influence, of the intervention of the British prime minister at the time, Gordon Brown, of the conversations that he allegedly had we our own prime minister, in October, at the Lisbon Summit - if they indeed spoke on the subject or not, we weren't there to listen, some say they did others say they didn't; but a fact remains, and this was the result: there was a point that the British police officers working on the case had to sign a document as if they belonged to the secret services, requesting their confidentiality so they wouldn't speak about the case. Definitely something strange, not usual under other circumstances. Thus, from then on, and with other elements, that would be too lengthy for us to be here now detailing - remains no doubt that a political intervention, practically, archived the case.
P.M. - Of the British and of the Portuguese government?
G.A. - The case went to the Portuguese General Attorney's Office, who published a statement saying that they had not find any indicia in the process...something that we find very strange. I recall that on the decision made by the Appellate Court, on October 19, of this year, which lifted the banning of the book that I've authored, 'Maddie, The Truth of The Lie', suggests that with the indicia that exists in the process, the opinion of the Public Ministry to archive the case could be another if the prosecutors were different - that means that something exists there [on the process]. I have no doubts that the magistrates, the appellate judges have read the process.
P.M. - Do you believe that this document, this note now revealed by WikiLeaks, can indeed change something as to the process? You have already said during this interview that you hoped for that to happen, but do you truly believe that that it will take place?
G.A. - This matter has evolved, step by step, we cannot use this document as a flag, the knowledge of this note as a victory - let's put it in this way, it does not mean an immediate reopening of the case. However, I do believe that we are walking towards that goal, that finally the reconstitution of the facts may take place with the couple and with their friends, if they so wish, and if they are willing to return to Portugal.
P.M. - You spoke of «victory», do you believe that this will change the perception that people have about the Maddie case?
G.A. - The perception that I have, as far as the perception of people go, is that the Judiciary Police has worked, the Judiciary Police was able to reach some conclusions, important conclusions. That the process needs to go on, the investigation has to continue, and, as we have previously spoken here today, the process was archived for political reasons - that is the perception that people have.
His words in the report: "It is my view that it is possible that the EVRD is alerting to cadaver scent contamination." I think this is similar to what I said too. "They are alerts to cadaver contamination in all probability for that is what Eddie is trained to find. But what is reason for the cadaver odour contamination is anyone's guess."
Grime says it's possible...that's the fact...only possible not confirmed Saying they are alerting is not a fact and not supported by Grime or Harrison
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on December 07, 2017, 12:06:18 PM
P.M. - Would it have been possible to go further, in gathering evidence, after what took place in September 2007, or not?
G.A. - As I said before, the investigation is an investigation that is interrupted, an investigation that needs to be concluded. I believe that it is possible to make progress, if it wasn't for lack of political will; now with political will, based on this note - which is only a note as you said, but remains an important note nevertheless between two ambassadors, from one ambassador to the US State Department, that must have the weight that it has. Hopefully now, it will also be disclosed those photos, those satellite images that we believe to be in the possession of the US authorities, that we, the Portuguese police mentioned first, and also requested, a request that was denied to us.
P.M. - In your understanding, what could those satellite images reveal?
G.A. - They can reveal who was the person that carried the child on that night on its way to the beach. According to an Irish couple statement, with an alleged 80% certainty, it was Gerald McCann himself. That could be the confirmation of that Irish couple's statement.
P.M. - And those images exist?
G.A. - We believe that, yes. In fact, the McCann couple themselves, said, a few months ago, that they also searched for them; that they don't exist, someone else later stated that they don't exist. It's possible that the site who has divulged the cable might also be able to release those images. That would be interesting.
Does anyone have the faintest idea why he was convinced that the NSA would have identifiable stills of someone carrying / disposing of Madeleine in PDL?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Brietta on December 07, 2017, 12:44:11 PM
What exactly did the ambassador's note say?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on December 07, 2017, 01:29:45 PM
P.M. - Would it have been possible to go further, in gathering evidence, after what took place in September 2007, or not?
G.A. - As I said before, the investigation is an investigation that is interrupted, an investigation that needs to be concluded. I believe that it is possible to make progress, if it wasn't for lack of political will; now with political will, based on this note - which is only a note as you said, but remains an important note nevertheless between two ambassadors, from one ambassador to the US State Department, that must have the weight that it has. Hopefully now, it will also be disclosed those photos, those satellite images that we believe to be in the possession of the US authorities, that we, the Portuguese police mentioned first, and also requested, a request that was denied to us.
P.M. - In your understanding, what could those satellite images reveal?
G.A. - They can reveal who was the person that carried the child on that night on its way to the beach. According to an Irish couple statement, with an alleged 80% certainty, it was Gerald McCann himself. That could be the confirmation of that Irish couple's statement.
P.M. - And those images exist?
G.A. - We believe that, yes. In fact, the McCann couple themselves, said, a few months ago, that they also searched for them; that they don't exist, someone else later stated that they don't exist. It's possible that the site who has divulged the cable might also be able to release those images. That would be interesting.
Does anyone have the faintest idea why he was convinced that the NSA would have identifiable stills of someone carrying / disposing of Madeleine in PDL?
It sounds rather crackpot to say the least
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on December 07, 2017, 04:36:29 PM
In a diplomatic cable marked confidential, the US ambassador reported: "Without delving into the details of the case, Ellis admitted that the British police had developed the current evidence against the McCann parents, and he stressed that authorities from both countries were working co-operatively."
(...)
In one of two cables referring to the McCann case, the US ambassador notes: "Madeleine McCann's disappearance in the south of Portugal in May 2007 has generated international media attention with controversy surrounding the Portuguese-led police investigation and the actions of Madeleine's parents."
He reported that his British counterpart thought "that the media frenzy was to be expected and was acceptable as long as government officials keep their comments behind closed doors".
In a diplomatic cable marked confidential, the US ambassador reported: "Without delving into the details of the case, Ellis admitted that the British police had developed the current evidence against the McCann parents, and he stressed that authorities from both countries were working co-operatively."
(...)
In one of two cables referring to the McCann case, the US ambassador notes: "Madeleine McCann's disappearance in the south of Portugal in May 2007 has generated international media attention with controversy surrounding the Portuguese-led police investigation and the actions of Madeleine's parents."
He reported that his British counterpart thought "that the media frenzy was to be expected and was acceptable as long as government officials keep their comments behind closed doors".
This was towards the end of Sept 07: https://www.theguardian.com/world/us-embassy-cables-documents/124011
Thanks Carana ... I thought that I was missing something to do with either Madeleine's DNA or the existence of satellite images. Seems not. I will read the link from 2013 you've provided ... can't remember if that was pre my time on the forum or not.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on December 07, 2017, 10:02:12 PM
P.M. - Would it have been possible to go further, in gathering evidence, after what took place in September 2007, or not?
G.A. - As I said before, the investigation is an investigation that is interrupted, an investigation that needs to be concluded. I believe that it is possible to make progress, if it wasn't for lack of political will; now with political will, based on this note - which is only a note as you said, but remains an important note nevertheless between two ambassadors, from one ambassador to the US State Department, that must have the weight that it has. Hopefully now, it will also be disclosed those photos, those satellite images that we believe to be in the possession of the US authorities, that we, the Portuguese police mentioned first, and also requested, a request that was denied to us.
P.M. - In your understanding, what could those satellite images reveal?
G.A. - They can reveal who was the person that carried the child on that night on its way to the beach. According to an Irish couple statement, with an alleged 80% certainty, it was Gerald McCann himself. That could be the confirmation of that Irish couple's statement.
P.M. - And those images exist?
G.A. - We believe that, yes. In fact, the McCann couple themselves, said, a few months ago, that they also searched for them; that they don't exist, someone else later stated that they don't exist. It's possible that the site who has divulged the cable might also be able to release those images. That would be interesting.
Does anyone have the faintest idea why he was convinced that the NSA would have identifiable stills of someone carrying / disposing of Madeleine in PDL?
What could be seen from a satellite? I don't think you could get an identification. What I'm noticing is a triangle of the Smiths who claim to have seen Gerry (80% certainty), Kevin Halligen who promised the satellite images, and Amaral who believed the Smiths and believed there were the satellite images. Then you might add in Brian Kennedy who funds the search, and contacts the Smiths to produce the e-fits which to a lot of people look a lot like Gerry McCann.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on December 07, 2017, 10:11:20 PM
What could be seen from a satellite? I don't think you could get an identification. What I'm noticing is a triangle of the Smiths who claim to have seen Gerry (80% certainty), Kevin Halligen who promised the satellite images, and Amaral who believed the Smiths and believed there were the satellite images. Then you might add in Brian Kennedy who funds the search, and contacts the Smiths to produce the e-fits which to a lot of people look a lot like Gerry McCann.
It just shows again amarals limited understanding that he thought a satellite image of the abductor might exist and could help but failed to collect the local CCTV images...unbeleivable
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on December 07, 2017, 11:18:21 PM
It just shows again amarals limited understanding that he thought a satellite image of the abductor might exist and could help but failed to collect the local CCTV images...unbeleivable
While googling, I'd forgotten about the other thread on here (I posted the link further up and have just reread it).
It didn't make sense to me years ago, and unfortunately time hasn't improved my understanding of fuzzy logic.
We're getting off topic, though...
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on December 08, 2017, 07:49:32 PM
The result of sample 3A was "However, all of the confirmed DNA components within this result match the corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeline McCann. LCN DNA profiling is highly sensitive it is not possible to attribute this DNA profile to a particular body fluid."
Does anyone know how many components were confirmed?
http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/JOHN_LOWE.htm
The full result is "An incomplete DNA result was obtained from cellular material on the swab 3a. The swab contained very little information and showed low level indications of DNA from more than one person. However, all of the confirmed DNA components within this result match the corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeline McCann. LCN DNA profiling is highly sensitive it is not possible to attribute this DNA profile to a particular body fluid."
but on this other site I get a different report "The Forensic Science Service® / Lowe report" http://themaddiecasefiles.com/the-forensic-science-service-lowe-report-t10.html
Which although say much the same has different wording.
"286A/2007-CRL 3A& B Swabs collected from the floor of the apartment An incomplete and weak DNA result comprising only some unconfirmed DNA components was obtained from the cellular material present in the dry swab (3A). The attempt to obtain a result from any cellular material that may have been in the same area and present in the wet swab (3B) was unfruitful, given that no profile was obtained. These samples were submitted for LCN tests.
An incomplete DNA result was obtained through LCN from cellular material present in the swab (286A/2007 CRL 3A). The low-level DNA result showed very meagre information indicating more than one person. Departing from the principle that all confirmed DNA components within the scope of this result originated from a single source, then these pointed to corresponding components in the profile of Madeleine McCann; however, if the DNA within the scope of this result originated from more than one person then the result could be explained as being DNA originating from [a mixture of DNA from both] Kate Healy and Gerald McCann, for example. DNA profiles established through LCN are extremely sensitive; it is not possible to attribute this DNA profile to a particular body fluid. nor to determine how or when that DNA was transferred to that area."
I wonder where that report is in the alphabetical listing? [I found it within the the Lowe report.]
"286A/2007-CRL 3A& B Swabs collected from the floor of the apartment An incomplete and weak DNA result comprising only some unconfirmed DNA components was obtained from the cellular material present in the dry swab (3A). The attempt to obtain a result from any cellular material that may have been in the same area and present in the wet swab (3B) was unfruitful, given that no profile was obtained. These samples were submitted for LCN tests.
An incomplete DNA result was obtained through LCN from cellular material present in the swab (286A/2007 CRL 3A). The low-level DNA result showed very meagre information indicating more than one person. Departing from the principle that all confirmed DNA components within the scope of this result originated from a single source, then these pointed to corresponding components in the profile of Madeleine McCann; however, if the DNA within the scope of this result originated from more than one person then the result could be explained as being DNA originating from [a mixture of DNA from both] Kate Healy and Gerald McCann, for example. DNA profiles established through LCN are extremely sensitive; it is not possible to attribute this DNA profile to a particular body fluid. nor to determine how or when that DNA was transferred to that area."
These two appear to be word for word the same.
If as Carana reports that there 5 alleles found what happens if we put that number in the report. Does that change the report.
"An incomplete DNA result was obtained from cellular material on the swab 3a. The swab contained very little information and showed low level indications of DNA from more than one person. However, all 5 of the confirmed DNA components within this result match the 5 corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeline McCann. LCN DNA profiling is highly sensitive it is not possible to attribute this DNA profile to a particular body fluid."
5 alleles is to few to specific identify a person but if it was a mixed sample what are the chances that only the 5 alleles that are associated with MBM are the ones that are confirmed?
But then what would it mean if Madeleine's DNA was found in the apartment any way?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on December 08, 2017, 08:21:51 PM
If as Carana reports that there 5 alleles found what happens if we put that number in the report. Does that change the report.
"An incomplete DNA result was obtained from cellular material on the swab 3a. The swab contained very little information and showed low level indications of DNA from more than one person. However, all 5 of the confirmed DNA components within this result match the 5 corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeline McCann. LCN DNA profiling is highly sensitive it is not possible to attribute this DNA profile to a particular body fluid."
5 alleles is to few to specific identify a person but if it was a mixed sample what are the chances that only the 5 alleles that are associated with MBM are the ones that are confirmed?
But then what would it mean if Madeleine's DNA was found in the apartment any way?
I cited the only reference that I could find: a GA interview.
I haven't found any corroboration for this in the files. That said, he was clearly less interested in the DNA results from the apartment than his suspicions regarding the car.
If there had been a potentially noteworthy amount of alleles (which still wouldn't necessarily mean anything nefarious) had been found behind the sofa... does anyone seriously think that he would have downplayed that, particularly as that was his "theory"?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on December 08, 2017, 10:07:52 PM
I cited the only reference that I could find: a GA interview.
I haven't found any corroboration for this in the files. That said, he was clearly less interested in the DNA results from the apartment than his suspicions regarding the car.
If there had been a potentially noteworthy amount of alleles (which still wouldn't necessarily mean anything nefarious) had been found behind the sofa... does anyone seriously think that he would have downplayed that, particularly as that was his "theory"?
Did all of the Tapas 9 provide reference DNA samples?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on December 08, 2017, 10:39:39 PM
Thanks. I was going to say something more detailed but I chickened out. So are they saying the other identified alleles could not be matched to anyone else?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on December 09, 2017, 08:37:43 AM
Thanks. I was going to say something more detailed but I chickened out. So are they saying the other identified alleles could not be matched to anyone else?
I'd take the following wording in the email, personally, as I believe there is a translation glitch in the longer version, which doesn't alter the meaning but makes it more difficult to understand (IMO):
An incomplete DNA result was obtained from cellular material on the swab 3a. The swab contained very little information and showed low level indications of DNA from more than one person. However, all of the confirmed DNA components within this result match the corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeline McCann. LCN DNA profiling is highly sensitive it is not possible to attribute this DNA profile to a particular body fluid."
Even that wording is a bit hazy. I understand it to mean that the sample had little in it, but they found a few alleles. The few that were confirmed matched with alleles in her profile. Others couldn't be confirmed, and didn't match hers anyway.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on December 09, 2017, 10:12:07 AM
I'd take the following wording in the email, personally, as I believe there is a translation glitch in the longer version, which doesn't alter the meaning but makes it more difficult to understand (IMO):
An incomplete DNA result was obtained from cellular material on the swab 3a. The swab contained very little information and showed low level indications of DNA from more than one person. However, all of the confirmed DNA components within this result match the corresponding components in the DNA profile of Madeline McCann. LCN DNA profiling is highly sensitive it is not possible to attribute this DNA profile to a particular body fluid."
Even that wording is a bit hazy. I understand it to mean that the sample had little in it, but they found a few alleles. The few that were confirmed matched with alleles in her profile. Others couldn't be confirmed, and didn't match hers anyway.
Here's me thinking they would have had to find other alleles in order to determine there was "more than one person".
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on December 09, 2017, 10:45:35 AM
Here's me thinking they would have had to find other alleles in order to determine there was "more than one person".
They did, but seemingly they just popped up but couldn't be confirmed (I presume by repeating the test, or simply because the peak "signal" was deemed insignificant and could have been background "noise".). Don't know, Rob, sorry.
Don't, however, confuse that 3A swab with the car finding - that's different.
In that one, there were apparently definitely 3 contributors and possibly up to 5.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Eleanor on December 09, 2017, 10:57:16 AM
All people share certain aspects of DNA.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on December 09, 2017, 11:19:07 AM
For ages, the media didn't know what they were talking about and people following the case assumed that an allele (component) was a unique identifying factor of a specific individual.
It's not.
If that were the case, anyone betting on a lottery jackpot with 20 numbers (+ the sex allele), just because they had ticked one or two of the winning numbers, should all expect to be multi-millionaires.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: barrier on December 09, 2017, 11:31:37 AM
Any one know why the samples were sent to England for analysis rather than in Portugal itself?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: jassi on December 09, 2017, 11:34:14 AM
I suspect the UK was promoted as being technically more advanced.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: barrier on December 09, 2017, 11:35:46 AM
Not according to the PT forensic science blog I read a long time ago. In the Madeleine case at least, the PT lab (the INML one) went far beyond the UK standards in terms of the quantity of alleles examined. The UK was (perhaps still is) behind in that respect.
The problem, according to the scientists, was that the sterile conditions needed for LCN analysis required a substantial investment, which they didn't have. If you remember, LCN analysis had been stopped for a while in the UK, so I can see why such an investment wasn't a priority.
ETA: I realise that I may be confusing everyone.
To clarify: PT went beyond the UK standards in terms of regular DNA analysis.
The FSS had the extra capacity to do LCN DNA analysis if needed.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on December 10, 2017, 12:10:20 AM
I suspect the UK was promoted as being technically more advanced.
Yes, there may have been an element of that.
The UK was able to do LCN analysis, if needed, and PT didn't have that capacity. There may also be the question of who was paying for it. Plus, I find it possible that the PJ team at the time were hoping that if the results were a clincher, it would carry more weight from a UK lab. And, it was a UK initiative (via Harrison) to bring dogs over, so it may have made sense to let the UK deal with the whole thing.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Brietta on December 10, 2017, 01:09:45 AM
The UK was able to do LCN analysis, if needed, and PT didn't have that capacity. There may also be the question of who was paying for it. Plus, I find it possible that the PJ team at the time were hoping that if the results were a clincher, it would carry more weight from a UK lab. And, it was a UK initiative (via Harrison) to bring dogs over, so it may have made sense to let the UK deal with the whole thing.
I seem to recall that Rebelo had the materials which had been sent to the FSS in Birmingham returned to Portugal for rechecking?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: barrier on December 10, 2017, 09:01:20 AM
Snip The FSS report also considered a spot collected on 4 May 2007 by an earlier forensic analysis team. That spot was on a bedcover of a bed in the room where the 3 children slept in apartment 5A. The bed was the one by the bedroom window i.e. not Madeleine’s. A reagent test had given a weak positive result for semen.
The FSS checked a sample database of 282 volunteers against 4 specific spots. The report does not say who these volunteers were, but judging by the results, they were people connected to apartment 5A in some manner, as a match was found for just one person, a previous occupant. Note a test re Madeleine’s DNA will be covered elsewhere.
The spots were 1, 4, 9 and 16. I have yet to identify where spot 16 was.
The match was against spot 9, and this also matched the stain on the bedcover. The person identified was Charlie Gordon, a boy aged 2 years and 3 months when he was in the apartment, together with father Paul Gordon and mother Saleigh Gordon. They had been in 5A for the week prior to the visit of the McCanns. https://shininginluz.wordpress.com/2016/06/06/madeleine-blood-spatter-analysis-2/
Now whether or not the original analysis of the stained bedspread was carried out in the Portuguese forensics lab or not, I have no idea; if you are interested the information should be easy enough to find ... but I think there is a reasonable chance it might have been.
But whatever, the fact that it was a match for a previous occupant of the bed raises two points for me the first of which is that I will never look on hotel bedspreads with the same confidence in their cleanliness I used to and the absolute fact that there is nothing untoward or mysterious about the definition of the source of the forensic trace.
Perhaps if there were less 'mystery' associated with the oft satisfactorily explained minutia of everything in preference to reliance on salient facts there would be a lot less uncalled for 'mystery' associated with Madeleine McCann's disappearance.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on December 10, 2017, 09:52:29 PM
Snip The FSS report also considered a spot collected on 4 May 2007 by an earlier forensic analysis team. That spot was on a bedcover of a bed in the room where the 3 children slept in apartment 5A. The bed was the one by the bedroom window i.e. not Madeleine’s. A reagent test had given a weak positive result for semen.
The FSS checked a sample database of 282 volunteers against 4 specific spots. The report does not say who these volunteers were, but judging by the results, they were people connected to apartment 5A in some manner, as a match was found for just one person, a previous occupant. Note a test re Madeleine’s DNA will be covered elsewhere.
The spots were 1, 4, 9 and 16. I have yet to identify where spot 16 was.
The match was against spot 9, and this also matched the stain on the bedcover. The person identified was Charlie Gordon, a boy aged 2 years and 3 months when he was in the apartment, together with father Paul Gordon and mother Saleigh Gordon. They had been in 5A for the week prior to the visit of the McCanns. https://shininginluz.wordpress.com/2016/06/06/madeleine-blood-spatter-analysis-2/
Now whether or not the original analysis of the stained bedspread was carried out in the Portuguese forensics lab or not, I have no idea; if you are interested the information should be easy enough to find ... but I think there is a reasonable chance it might have been.
But whatever, the fact that it was a match for a previous occupant of the bed raises two points for me the first of which is that I will never look on hotel bedspreads with the same confidence in their cleanliness I used to and the absolute fact that there is nothing untoward or mysterious about the definition of the source of the forensic trace.
Perhaps if there were less 'mystery' associated with the oft satisfactorily explained minutia of everything in preference to reliance on salient facts there would be a lot less uncalled for 'mystery' associated with Madeleine McCann's disappearance.
Yes, it was sent and was analysed (considered slightly positive for semen). For some reason, there was no further check as to whether it was or not.
The DNA didn't correspond to any reference sample.
After the recovery of hairs described above there proceeded the search for possible traces of semen, using a variable-wave light source appropriate for the task, there being identified various [several] areas where fluorescence characteristic of this type of trace evidence was seen.
The areas where the fluorescence was seen were submitted to a "Phosphatise test" search there being a slightly positive reaction (purplish colour) only in area of the bed-cover of the single bed opposite to the bed from where the minor disappeared, a piece of that bed-cover being collected and placed inside a paper envelope in accordance with instructions issued by the Biology Section of the LPC, it being referenced as trace evidence #5; http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/5A_FORENSIC_4_5_7.htm
FIRST INML REPORT 9 JULY 2007 (...)
DESCRIPTION OF MATERIAL RECEIVED
(...)
- 1 piece of cloth in envelope no. 5 recovered from the bedspread of the bed next to the window in the children's bedroom. Fragment of cloth, mauve/violet in colour with square motifs, circular in form about 10cm in diameter. A small fluorescent spot is observed under a Crime-light. 09-Processos Vol IX Page 2422-2439
(...)
CONCLUSIONS 4th- With respect to autosomic STRs the male genetic profile identified from the spot on the cloth fragment (bedspread of the bed next to window in the children's bedroom- Env 5) did not match any profile from the reference samples.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on December 10, 2017, 10:50:24 PM
Yes, it was sent and was analysed (considered slightly positive for semen). For some reason, there was no further check as to whether it was or not.
The DNA didn't correspond to any reference sample.
After the recovery of hairs described above there proceeded the search for possible traces of semen, using a variable-wave light source appropriate for the task, there being identified various [several] areas where fluorescence characteristic of this type of trace evidence was seen.
The areas where the fluorescence was seen were submitted to a "Phosphatise test" search there being a slightly positive reaction (purplish colour) only in area of the bed-cover of the single bed opposite to the bed from where the minor disappeared, a piece of that bed-cover being collected and placed inside a paper envelope in accordance with instructions issued by the Biology Section of the LPC, it being referenced as trace evidence #5; http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/5A_FORENSIC_4_5_7.htm
FIRST INML REPORT 9 JULY 2007 (...)
DESCRIPTION OF MATERIAL RECEIVED
(...)
- 1 piece of cloth in envelope no. 5 recovered from the bedspread of the bed next to the window in the children's bedroom. Fragment of cloth, mauve/violet in colour with square motifs, circular in form about 10cm in diameter. A small fluorescent spot is observed under a Crime-light. 09-Processos Vol IX Page 2422-2439
(...)
CONCLUSIONS 4th- With respect to autosomic STRs the male genetic profile identified from the spot on the cloth fragment (bedspread of the bed next to window in the children's bedroom- Env 5) did not match any profile from the reference samples.
Do you think the spots were compared to Gerry McCann's reference sample?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on December 11, 2017, 12:40:53 AM
The person interviewed calls them "markers". Some do, but others call the individual components alleles. I've stuck to markers to mean the locations where they look to identify the 2 alleles. In the UK, they look at 10 markers (20 alleles).
The person interviewed wouldn't have known that the so-called "damning" evidence was a mixed soup - she was just answering in general terms.
ETA: The question seems to have been whether the DNA could have belonged to one of the siblings - hence her answer.
There's nothing more in that than we've discussed in this thread.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on December 12, 2017, 08:45:31 PM
The person interviewed calls them "markers". Some do, but others call the individual components alleles. I've stuck to markers to mean the locations where they look to identify the 2 alleles. In the UK, they look at 10 markers (20 alleles).
The person interviewed wouldn't have known that the so-called "damning" evidence was a mixed soup - she was just answering in general terms.
ETA: The question seems to have been whether the DNA could have belonged to one of the siblings - hence her answer.
There's nothing more in that than we've discussed in this thread.
She does say something a bit new. "15 or 16 markers would give you enough evidence to provide a strong pointer that it was more likely to be Madeleine's other than some one unrelated to Madeleine. You should be able to know what the types of the close relatives, you should be able to distinguish Madeleine's DNA from their's, just from 15 or 16 markers."
I wonder if that was attempted?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on December 12, 2017, 08:48:41 PM
She does say something a bit new. "15 or 16 markers would give you enough evidence to provide a strong pointer that it was more likely to be Madeleine's other than some one unrelated to Madeleine. You should be able to know what the types of the close relatives, you should be able to distinguish Madeleine's DNA from their's, just from 15 or 16 markers."
I wonder if that was attempted?
no...because it was a soup from 3 or more people...so none of that applies..dont worry rob...amaral didnt undersrtand it either
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on December 12, 2017, 09:23:50 PM
no...because it was a soup from 3 or more people...so none of that applies..dont worry rob...amaral didnt undersrtand it either
Yes, I agree. The forensic lady couldn't have known that it was a mixed soup. She must have assumed that they'd found an uncontaminated profile, which wasn't the case.
"Could the fact that DNA from Madeleine's siblings was also in the car complicate matters?"
"Fifteen or 16 markers would give enough evidence to give a strong pointer that it was more likely to be Madelene's than someone unrelated to Madeleine.
And you should be able to, if you know what the types are of the close relatives, you should be able to distinguish Madeleine's DNA from theirs just from 15 or 16 markers."
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on December 12, 2017, 11:53:54 PM
Why on earth is she posting those videos all over again? She's even recently posted a shorter one on that particular aspect.
That interview was before the files were released, so the forensic lady could only answer the question that the presenter put to her (which I presume was at least along the lines of the off-voice, who hadn't been able to read the files either, obviously).
It's misleading, at best. IMO.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on December 12, 2017, 11:56:31 PM
Why on earth is she posting those videos all over again? She's even recently posted a shorter one on that particular aspect.
That interview was before the files were released, so the forensic lady could only answer the question that the presenter put to her (which I presume was at least along the lines of the off-voice, who hadn't been able to read the files either, obviously).
It's misleading, at best. IMO.
She is posting them and people are believing them..imo
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on December 13, 2017, 12:10:22 AM
no...because it was a soup from 3 or more people...so none of that applies..dont worry rob...amaral didnt undersrtand it either
I doubt if you do either TBH. Take 3 persons mix their DNA get result of 37 alleles and 15 of them matching alleles of Madeleine. I think it would definitely be involving a relative.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on December 13, 2017, 12:14:39 AM
It's easy to fall for misinformation, unfortunately.
I have, until something intrigued me enough to fact check.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on December 13, 2017, 12:15:02 AM
Why on earth is she posting those videos all over again? She's even recently posted a shorter one on that particular aspect.
That interview was before the files were released, so the forensic lady could only answer the question that the presenter put to her (which I presume was at least along the lines of the off-voice, who hadn't been able to read the files either, obviously).
It's misleading, at best. IMO.
I raised the question of the DNA in one of the HDH Facebook groups.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on December 13, 2017, 12:20:44 AM
I doubt if you do either TBH. Take 3 persons mix their DNA get result of 37 alleles and 15 of them matching alleles of Madeleine. I think it would definitely be involving a relative.
Rob, did you ever try the experiment I suggested a few pages back - taking the 3 DNA profiles in the files, imagining that they were all in the mix and then comparing the result with Madeleleine's profile?
AFAIK none of them were related to her.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on December 13, 2017, 12:29:08 AM
Rob, did you ever try the experiment I suggested a few pages back - taking the 3 DNA profiles in the files, imagining that they were all in the mix and then comparing the result with Madeleleine's profile?
AFAIK none of them were related to her.
I can't recall doing it, no.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on December 19, 2017, 07:22:58 PM
Martin Brunt’s transcript:
“I’ve learnt some important detail of the forensic test results and they rather explain perhaps why the Portuguese Police are so confident in their theory that Madeleine’s parents one or other of them, played a part in their daughter’s death. The details are these that the samples that came back last week after a British test in the UK, the samples produced 3 matches of Madeleine’s DNA. Now in the apartment, Police found 1 full match on a window seal, a full match of Madeleine’s DNA. That’s perhaps not so important because Madeleine of course had been staying there for the best part of a fortnight with her parents. Now in the hire car which was hired 5 weeks after Madeleine’s disappearance, the tests have shown a partial match of Madeleine’s DNA, which might be explained by transfer onto clothes or other paraphernalia that the family were still using 5 weeks on, but this is the crucial thing, In the car the scientists have also found another, a second full match and Police say that is the most damning evidence that’s been returned by these forensic test results and It shows as far as they are concerned, the presence of Madeleine’s body in the hire car 5 weeks, at least 5 weeks after she disappeared. And as I said, this begins to explain I think why the Police are so adamant about their theory and this of course is part of the evidence that the Prosecutor here will start considering we think in the morning”.
https://youtu.be/u3HQ74Rfdbk
What does it say in the Lowe report about the DNA found on the window seal? (where was this seal?)
The words window seal don't come up in the right context in the report. http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/JOHN_LOWE.htm
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on December 19, 2017, 07:34:48 PM
“I’ve learnt some important detail of the forensic test results and they rather explain perhaps why the Portuguese Police are so confident in their theory that Madeleine’s parents one or other of them, played a part in their daughter’s death. The details are these that the samples that came back last week after a British test in the UK, the samples produced 3 matches of Madeleine’s DNA. Now in the apartment, Police found 1 full match on a window seal, a full match of Madeleine’s DNA. That’s perhaps not so important because Madeleine of course had been staying there for the best part of a fortnight with her parents. Now in the hire car which was hired 5 weeks after Madeleine’s disappearance, the tests have shown a partial match of Madeleine’s DNA, which might be explained by transfer onto clothes or other paraphernalia that the family were still using 5 weeks on, but this is the crucial thing, In the car the scientists have also found another, a second full match and Police say that is the most damning evidence that’s been returned by these forensic test results and It shows as far as they are concerned, the presence of Madeleine’s body in the hire car 5 weeks, at least 5 weeks after she disappeared. And as I said, this begins to explain I think why the Police are so adamant about their theory and this of course is part of the evidence that the Prosecutor here will start considering we think in the morning”.
https://youtu.be/u3HQ74Rfdbk
What does it say in the Lowe report about the DNA found on the window seal? (where was this seal?)
The words window seal don't come up in the right context in the report. http://www.mccannpjfiles.co.uk/PJ/JOHN_LOWE.htm
window sill
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Robittybob1 on December 19, 2017, 08:06:16 PM
quite simply where did brunt get his information from
Good question. Was someone feeding false info to Brunt ?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 07, 2018, 09:47:03 AM
Picking up on a previous post of mine as I think I may have just had a eureka moment. lol
The person interviewed calls them "markers". Some do, but others call the individual components alleles. I've stuck to markers to mean the locations where they look to identify the 2 alleles. In the UK, they look at 10 markers (20 alleles).
The person interviewed wouldn't have known that the so-called "damning" evidence was a mixed soup - she was just answering in general terms.
ETA: The question seems to have been whether the DNA could have belonged to one of the siblings - hence her answer.
There's nothing more in that than we've discussed in this thread.
This quote of GA's has mystified me for years. I couldn't even work out what it was that he seems to have misunderstood... He apparently didn't understand that it was a mixed sample.
GA: The reports from the English labs… the English reports arrive shortly before the questionings that were scheduled. And it contained certain conclusions, if they thought they were inconclusive they shouldn’t have mentioned it, the question of the 15 alleles in a profile of 19 from the little girl, stating that they match Madeleine McCann, but they also say that it could have been a construction let’s say from various donors, from other persons, a contamination could have produced Madeleine McCann’s profile by coincidence. But there are no excuses for saying that it is not from Madeleine McCann because they held the profiles of the father, the mother, the siblings, therefore there are no doubts that at least within that family they only matched Madeleine McCann’s. http://madeleinemccann.org/blog/2014/04/20/goncalo-amaral-the-interviews-july-08/
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on January 07, 2018, 09:54:40 AM
Picking up on a previous post of mine as I think I may have just had a eureka moment. lol
The person interviewed calls them "markers". Some do, but others call the individual components alleles. I've stuck to markers to mean the locations where they look to identify the 2 alleles. In the UK, they look at 10 markers (20 alleles).
The person interviewed wouldn't have known that the so-called "damning" evidence was a mixed soup - she was just answering in general terms.
ETA: The question seems to have been whether the DNA could have belonged to one of the siblings - hence her answer.
There's nothing more in that than we've discussed in this thread.
This quote of GA's has mystified me for years. I couldn't even work out what it was that he seems to have misunderstood... He apparently didn't understand that it was a mixed sample.
GA: The reports from the English labs… the English reports arrive shortly before the questionings that were scheduled. And it contained certain conclusions, if they thought they were inconclusive they shouldn’t have mentioned it, the question of the 15 alleles in a profile of 19 from the little girl, stating that they match Madeleine McCann, but they also say that it could have been a construction let’s say from various donors, from other persons, a contamination could have produced Madeleine McCann’s profile by coincidence. But there are no excuses for saying that it is not from Madeleine McCann because they held the profiles of the father, the mother, the siblings, therefore there are no doubts that at least within that family they only matched Madeleine McCann’s. http://madeleinemccann.org/blog/2014/04/20/goncalo-amaral-the-interviews-july-08/
Which is proof amaral misunderstood the dna and based his theories on a misunderstanding of the evidence
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: slartibartfast on January 07, 2018, 09:57:43 AM
IMO the PJ would have been in touch with FSS to clarify.
from memory the results were explained to amaral by someone from the portuguese forensic servives...Carana has posted this before...amaral it seems chose to ignore the explanation and reach his own conclusions. I will check with Carana for the cite.
The results from the FSS are quite clear and easily understood
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 07, 2018, 10:47:19 AM
IMO the PJ would have been in touch with FSS to clarify.
Erm, I wouldn't be too sure about that.
For the FSS, LP was the client and therefore results and emails went via LP (Stuart Prior, presumably).
Later, once Rebelo had taken over, Corte Real, Paiva and the two PJ forensic guys went over to the FSS (from memory, November 07).
(Not related, except to an earlier post on this thread, I did manage to confirm from the Op Task* strategy debrief paper that LP did indeed pay for the FSS tests - I'd thought so, but wasn't certain.)
*Correction.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on January 07, 2018, 10:50:02 AM
Amaral should realise now he was wrong so why is he still spouting the same inaccuracies
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 07, 2018, 10:51:43 AM
from memory the results were explained to amaral by someone from the portuguese forensic servives...Carana has posted this before...amaral it seems chose to ignore the explanation and reach his own conclusions. I will check with Carana for the cite.
The results from the FSS are quite clear and easily understood
Actually, I don't know about that.
What I do know is that Corte Real said the same basic thing as Lowe (although in a more complicated way) in GA's "documentary".
Otherwise, there's his "we, policemen, experts..." quote about a thawing body being speculation but the only explanation, which I don't find terribly reassuring.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Mr Gray on January 07, 2018, 10:55:03 AM
What I do know is that Corte Real said the same basic thing as Lowe (although in a more complicated way) in GA's "documentary".
Otherwise, there's his "we, policemen, experts..." quote about a thawing body being speculation but the only explanation, which I don't find terribly reassuring.
That's what I was referring to...so Corte Real understood which confirms the Portuguese were told the correct results it's just that amaral did not understand them...when the explanation really was quite simple
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: barrier on January 07, 2018, 10:56:29 AM
For the FSS, LP was the client and therefore results and emails went via LP (Stuart Prior, presumably).
Later, once Rebelo had taken over, Corte Real, Paiva and the two PJ forensic guys went over to the FSS (from memory, November 07).
(Not related, except to an earlier post on this thread, I did manage to confirm from the Op Grange strategy debrief paper that LP did indeed pay for the FSS tests - I'd thought so, but wasn't certain.)
Do you mean Op Task debrief?
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 07, 2018, 10:56:38 AM
That's what I was referring to...so Corte Real understood which confirms the Portuguese were told the correct results it's just that amaral did not understand them...when the explanation really was quite simple
Corte Real would obviously have understood the issue even without needing to physically visit the FSS. Whether anyone from the original PJ team ever asked the INML to explain the results isn't clear. Lowe did his best in the email.
In any case, Amaral himself didn't really need to, but someone from the PJ at the time should have grasped it - quite aside from the INML lab, there is a PJ forensic unit, but then again, I've no idea what kind of training they had, nor whether they were asked.
Title: Re: MADELEINE'S DNA - definitive study.
Post by: Carana on January 07, 2018, 11:08:52 AM